Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 6:50 PM Moonrise 2:22 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 182007 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 107 PM MST Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong warming trend into next week. A weak passing weather system will bring breezy conditions on Friday.

DISCUSSION
A broad zonal flow across the state today with heights and thicknesses supporting temperatures around 7-10 degrees above average the next couple of days. Some breeziness Friday afternoon with a passing weak weather system, but remaining dry across SE AZ.

Weak troughiness over the weekend will stall the warming trend, with a broad low amplitude ridge pushing temps up a few more degrees early next week.

Late next week a weather system may pass through the area bringing gusty winds and decreasing temperatures back towards normal. There is a still a degree of uncertainty with this possible weather system, more to come.

AVIATION
Valid 20/00z SCT to BKN clouds AOA 20-25k ft AGL have been moving in from the west today and will clear out of the area around 19/14z becoming SKC for the remainder of the forecast period. SFC winds will be fairly weak this afternoon around 5-10 kts from the west-northwest with gusts to 15 kts becoming light and variable overnight.
Tomorrow afternoon winds will be stronger around 10-15 kts from the southwest with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry with a strong warming trend across SE AZ into next week. Minimum relative humidity values generally below 12% in valleys, dropping to single digits at times. Typical diurnal wind trends most of the week, with a breezy Friday afternoon as a weak dry weather system pushes across.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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