Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frisco City, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:15PM Friday October 20, 2017 1:03 PM CDT (18:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 1026 Am Cdt Fri Oct 20 2017
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tonight..East winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1026 Am Cdt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis..A strong surface ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch from the mid atlantic region to the north central gulf through Saturday night, leading to a moderate northeast to easterly wind flow over the marine area through Saturday night, then shifting southeast to south ahead of a cold front approaching from the west Sunday night. A moderate to strong offshore flow is expected in the wake of the front late Monday through midweek.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frisco City, AL
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location: 31.54, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 201650 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1150 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017

Discussion See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update Current package generally on track, with no updates
planned attm.

16

Aviation
18z issuance... GeneralVFR conditions expected over most of the
forecast area through the period. May see MVFR CIGS visbys over
eastern ms due to stronger low level flow expected to set up
overnight bringing in higher moisture levels and possible fog
development. Am not anticipating major impact to TAF sites,
though.

16

Prev discussion issued 630 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance...VFR conditions through 21.12z. Winds will be
mostly east at 5 to 10 knots through the forecast period. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 458 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
near term now through Friday night ... Mid to upper ridge of high
pressure centered over the northern gulf states and forecast area
this morning will shift east to the mid atlantic and SE states
coastal areas through 12z sat. At the surface high pressure centered
over the ohio tennessee river valleys this morning will shift east
to the mid atlantic coast during the next 24 hours thus leading to a
better flow from the ese along the northern gulf coast beginning
late today, continuing overnight. With this pattern better upper and
low level moisture begins to return to the north central gulf coast
region late today and tonight leading to increased mid to high
clouds moving in mostly from the west, along with a few low clouds
forming by afternoon continuing overnight. Model soundings support
this reasoning with pwats climbing to 0.7 to 1.0 inches by this
evening and overnight compared to well below an inch 24 hours ago.

With weak subsidence still in the boundary layer, limited moisture
early in the day, combined with limited forcing in the mid to upper
levels the chance for measurable rain remains very low through
tonight with maybe a few isolated showers or thunderstorms forming
well offshore due to better surface based instability, occurring
mostly off the al ms la coasts.

Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs ranging
from the lower to middle 80s both inland and along the immediate
coast. Lows tonight will be a tad warmer ranging from the mid to
upper 50s generally over the northern half of the forecast area and
the lower to middle 60s further south to the immediate coast.

32 ee
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... The upper level
ridge of high pressure will continue to shift eastward across the
southeastern states and adjacent western atlantic Saturday as
southwesterly flow aloft increases across the mississippi and
tennessee valley region ahead of a deepening upper level trough
moving across the rocky mountains and adjacent plains. Deep layer
moisture will gradually increase underneath the developing
southwest flow aloft across southeast mississippi and far
southwest alabama by Saturday afternoon, with precipitable water
values rising back into the 1.3" and 1.6" range across this
region. Enough moisture and lift may be available to aid in the
development of a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm across
far western portions of the forecast area by Saturday afternoon,
and we will carry a 20-30% chance of measurable rain generally
west of a waynesboro to mobile line. Deep layer dry air remains
intact across central and eastern portions of the cwa, and will
keep pops well below mentionable levels there. Saturday night
currently looks dry, though an isolated shower or storm will be
possible near the coast and offshore. Highs Saturday afternoon are
forecast to range in the lower to mid 80s, with lows Saturday
night continuing to trend a little warmer with increasing cloud
cover and low level moisture. The lows should range in the lower
to mid 60s inland, and the mid 60s to around 70 along the coast
and beaches.

The upper level longwave trough will continue to progress
eastward across the plains states during the day Sunday, before
closing off into an upper level low in the vicinity of northern
louisiana and southern arkansas through late Sunday night. An
associated surface cold front is also expected to approach the
mississippi valley region Sunday afternoon, before pushing
eastward toward eastern southeastern mississippi and southeastern
louisiana by late Sunday night. A zone of increased deep layer
moisture and ascent will spread eastward through much of
mississippi and into western and southwestern alabama by Sunday
afternoon ahead of these features, and we expect increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across our area through the
day, most notably the western half of our cwa. We will have pops
increasing to 60-80% by Sunday afternoon west of a grove hill to
pensacola line (highest coverage in southeast mississippi) with
pops in the 30-50% range farther to the east. Numerous to
widespread showers and storms should continue to progress
eastward across our entire CWA Sunday evening into the overnight
hours Sunday night, and will have pops rising to categorical
(~80%) levels across all of the area through the night. Locally
heavy rainfall will certainly be possible given that precipitable
water values will be rising to around 2" across the region. We
expect that most of our region will receive between 1" and 2" of
rainfall with isolated amounts over 4" not out of the question.

The overall severe potential looks quite low marginal at this
point given fairly weak instability and 20-30 knots of 850 mb
flow. The 00z ECMWF continues to trend a little stronger with the
low level jet, so will need to monitor for the potential of a few
stronger embedded storms, a few of which could exhibit some weak
rotation in the line. We will monitor closely over the next few
forecast cycles. Highs Sunday are expected to range around 80 to
the lower 80s, with lows Sunday night ranging in the mid to upper
60s over western portions of the area to around 70 to the lower
70s farther east. 21
long term Monday through Thursday ... The upper level low trough
axis will continue to move east across our area through the day
Monday. Numerous to widespread showers and storms will be ongoing
through Monday morning across eastern portions of the forecast
area, with pops gradually diminishing from west to east through
Monday afternoon as the cold front moves across our region. A few
lingering light rain showers are possible into Monday evening,
before a much cooler and drier airmass spreads across our region
in the wake of the departing system. A dry northwest flow aloft
prevails through midweek, with continued dry conditions into
Thursday underneath weak shortwave ridging aloft. A reinforcement
of cool dry air will spread into our area late Tuesday with much
cooler temperatures expected into Thursday. Lows may range in the
40s over much of our interior Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Highs
Wednesday may only reach the mid to upper 60s before modifying a
bit into the lower to mid 70s by Thursday. 21
marine... A light to moderate easterly wind flow will begin to shift
east southeast today and tonight, continue through Sat night then
shift mostly southeast Sun through Sun evening. Winds will then veer
to the south then northwest late Sun night into early Mon in
response to a cold front moving across the region early Mon morning.

Ahead and along the front expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms with the best coverage occurring late Sun continuing
through late Mon morning. A few strong thunderstorms will be
possible with this pattern, especially late Sun night. Seas offshore
will continue to range from to 4 to 5 feet through this evening,
build to 4 to 6 feet through Sat afternoon, then 5 to 7 feet sat
night through mon, ahead and in the wake of the cold front which
moves across the marine area early Mon morning. Small craft
advisories may be necessary Sun into mon. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 63 mi52 min 78°F 77°F1021.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 64 mi64 min ENE 6 77°F 1022 hPa (-0.7)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 67 mi46 min E 8.9 G 11 75°F 76°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Evergreen, Middleton Field, AL29 mi71 minENE 710.00 miFair79°F60°F52%1022.7 hPa

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Last 24hrN6E86NE6NE3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E8NE7E7
1 day agoE63NE9E6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3E75NE6NE6
2 days ago6N6NE8NE8N5NE4NE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E8E8E5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Bryant Landing, Tensay River, Alabama
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Lower Bryant Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:30 AM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:09 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.21.21.21.21.21.10.90.70.50.40.30.30.30.40.50.60.70.911111.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:04 AM CDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:47 PM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:10 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.31.31.41.31.31.21.110.80.70.60.50.50.60.60.70.80.911.11.11.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.