Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Midway, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:27PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:20 AM EST (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 106 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
AMZ300 106 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will affect the area into Thursday with cool and dry high pressure then returning through this weekend. A cold front could move through early next week with a few showers followed by cool and dry high pressure once again into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Midway, GA
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location: 31.73, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 150310
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1010 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will affect the area into Thursday with cool and
dry high pressure then returning through this weekend. A cold
front could move through early next week with a few showers
followed by cool and dry high pressure once again into the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
A broad and weak area of low pressure over north-central florida
will travel north-northeast and into our nearby georgia atlantic
waters after midnight, reaching near the charleston county coast
around 12z Thursday. During this transition, forcing will become
maximized with deep moisture and strong dynamics in place due to
a 40-50 kt low level jet and difluence associated with the upper
jet passing inland over the southeast. This will lead to
widespread moderate rains developing, along with pockets of
occasional heavy rains. Localized minor flooding will become a
concern. We considered adding mention of t-storms over the south
carolina coastal zones, but with the track of the surface low to
mainly stay over the ocean, we opted not to include. Still a
stray t-storm is possible late. Rain cooled conditions have
prompted us to lower temps, both hourly and for minimum temps a
bit in many areas. However, with the track of the low
approaching late, we have shown rising temps over parts of
charleston and berkeley county. Gusty winds will persist,
especially over the coastal corridor, as speeds reach as high as
30 or 35 mph.

Previous discussion...

a deep and tropical-like plume of moisture will extend across
the area, with pwat as much as 170-180% of normal for mid
november. This along with increasing and strengthening
isentropic ascent with cool air damming in place to our north-
northwest, and increasing forcing from an approaching wave of
low pressure from florida, which hugs the coast as it rides
northeast, will lead to widespread rainfall all areas. A strong
low level jet and difluence from the upper jet will further lead
to large scale forcing for ascent, and potentially some locally
heavy rains.

Our evening update as slowed down the onset of rainfall over to
the locations mainly over the north and east counties until the
late evening and overnight, with likely to categorical pop west
and southwest.

Depending upon if any instability get move onshore of the
coastal plain of the area overnight as the coastal warm front
attempts to move onshore, there could be a risk of isolated
t-storms, and higher rainfall rates. This could result in the
potential for localized flooding.

The strength of the low level jet and the packed gradient
between the in-situ wedge and the approaching low will lead to
northeast and east winds as high as 30-35 mph along the coastal
corridor.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Relatively calm conditions will prevail through the period as low
pressure pulls away from the region and high pressure builds in from
the west. Rain will quickly end from southwest to northeast through
the day Thursday with dry conditions prevailing Thursday night into
Saturday. Clearing conditions will ensue Thursday in the wake of the
low with clear to mostly clear skies prevailing thereafter.

Temperatures will only warm into the mid-upper 50s Thursday and
Friday then moderate into the mid 60s by Saturday. Lows Friday night
will range from the mid 30s well inland to the mid-upper 40s at the
beaches. Could see patchy to scattered frost develop across the
far interior just before daybreak Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Dry weather will prevail through early next week as cooler high
pressure moves into the area. A weak area of low pressure may
develop offshore and cause a few showers mainly near the coast.

Temperatures should mostly stay near normal.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Rain has been slow in developing at and near kchs and ksav this
evening, but eventually it will develop and overspread the
terminals during the late evening and overnight as lift
increases ahead of an approaching wave of low pressure from the
south and southwest. MVFR conditions early in the valid 00z taf
cycle will lower to ifr as the rain occurs, and continues into
at least Thursday morning. As the low pulls away the rest of
Thursday, the rain will end, and there should be at least some
improvement back into the MVFR range after 15-16z.

An additional concern tonight will be winds, both surface and in
the lower levels. NE winds will be gusty at the surface as the
pressure pattern tightens between an inland wedge and the
approaching wave. Also, a 45-50 kt jet will traverse the area
for a few hours from about 04-09z, leading to low level wind
shear at both terminals.

Extended aviation outlook: no concerns.

Marine
Overnight: low pressure will ride north-northeast through the
area, passing through all but the amz350 waters prior to
daybreak. There is a strong pinching of the gradient between
this approaching feature and an inland wedge that will generate
ne winds as high as 25-30 kt with gusts near or in excess of 35
kt across most of the atlantic waters. As a result we have
small craft advisory headlines in effect for amz350, amz352 and
amz374. Across the amz354 waters and in charleston harbor we
have strong small craft advisory conditions, for NE winds of
20-25 kt with some higher gusts. Seas will be about as high as
they can get in the absence of tropical weather; 8-12 ft in the
atlantic, with 2-3 foot waves in charleston harbor. Based on the
recent radar trends and elevated instability expected across
the coastal waters, we have added mention of a slight chance of
t-storms across the outer georgia waters through the night,
which will expand into the charleston county atlantic waters
after midnight as the surface low approaches.

Thursday through Monday: conditions will gradually improve across
the local marine area Thursday as low pressure moves away from the
area. Seas are expected to drop below small craft advisory
thresholds Thursday morning across the nearshore waters and Thursday
afternoon for the georgia offshore waters Thursday evening. From
Friday on, northwest winds will turn northeast over the weekend with
speeds 15 kt or less. Seas will range 2-4 ft from Friday through
Monday.

High surf: gale conditions will cause elevated seas to continue,
as the offshore seas within 20 nm reach as high as 8-11 ft, and
5 foot breakers occur in the surf zone, especially along the
northeast and east facing beaches. A high surf advisory remains
in effect.

Tides coastal flooding
Strengthening northeast winds will lead to increasing positive
tidal anomalies tonight. The high tide after midnight may
experience departures around 1.5 ft mllw at both downtown
charleston and fort pulaski. While this is below our coastal
flood criteria, there remains a concern that steady rains
falling around that time may result in a mix of minor fresh and
salt water flooding.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... High surf advisory until 5 am est Thursday for gaz117-119-139-
141.

Sc... High surf advisory until 5 am est Thursday for scz051.

High surf advisory until 8 am est Thursday for scz048>050.

Marine... Gale warning until 1 am est Thursday for amz352-374.

Gale warning until 5 am est Thursday for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for amz354.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for amz330.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 22 mi81 min NNE 16 58°F 1014 hPa (-3.0)56°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 27 mi39 min NE 19 G 23 55°F 65°F1015.3 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 29 mi31 min SSW 7.8 G 14 65°F 71°F9 ft1012.4 hPa (-2.3)63°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA21 mi85 minNE 1010.00 miLight Rain53°F50°F88%1015.9 hPa
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA22 mi25 minNNW 1010.00 miLight Rain50°F48°F93%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE4N6N7N8N6NE6NE5N7N8NE7NE9NE7NE5NE8NE6NE10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW6SW7SW8SW7SW5NW11N12NE7N10--NW11N6N5N3CalmNW8N10N9N7
2 days agoN7N3NE4NE5N4N4NE5NE3CalmNE4NE6NE5NE6E5E5CalmW4CalmCalmSE5S6CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for North Newport River (Daymark 119), Georgia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Florida Passage, Bear River, Georgia
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Florida Passage
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Thu -- 01:52 AM EST     6.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:48 AM EST     1.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:21 PM EST     7.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.56.46.76.25.13.82.61.81.62.13.14.45.66.67.27.16.35.13.72.41.61.523.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.