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FXUS62 KTAE 190148 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 948 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The forecast looks to be holding steady this evening, updates do not appear necessary.

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A well-established subtropical ridge over the Gulf attendant to surface high pressure maintains continued mostly rain-free weather and unseasonable warmth/mugginess. However, a somewhat subtle shortwave evident on afternoon vapor imagery near ARKLATEX is forcing convection over the Central MS Valley. Although this activity should skirt to our north as it gets shunted by the ridge, isolated light showers possibly graze the Wiregrass and northern- tier GA counties tonight. Rain chances remain low given modeled soundings showing a dry layer below 600 mb that is more supportive of virga.

The combo of light/calm winds amidst a moist boundary layer prompts returning fog/low stratus late tonight into tomorrow morning for much of our FL counties and SE AL. Some of the fog may become dense, so it will not be surprising if an advisory is issued either by the evening or overnight shift. Conditions should improve by mid- morning. Otherwise, muggy 60s are forecast for tonight's low temperatures under mostly cloudy skies. These readings are up to about a dozen degrees above normal.

For tomorrow, the main story will be anomalously hot inland temperatures as many locations are poised to reach the upper 80s or experience their first 90-degree day of the year (late by around a couple weeks, on average). Places like Tallahassee or Valdosta flirt with daily record highs for April 18th at 92 and 90 degrees, respectively. The culprits are large-scale subsidence from strong ridging (i.e., sunny skies), and forecast 500-mb heights/850-mb temperatures at or near the 90th percentile, per KTLH sounding climo. The coastal strip will be noticeably cooler thanks to an expected afternoon seabreeze.

SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal mid-level flow prevails into the weekend as several upper level disturbances pass through the region. The first wave will pass through Friday night with showers to our north diminishing through the overnight hours as the shortwave passes from west to east across central AL/GA. These showers will likely bring a weakening frontal boundary into our AL/GA counties for Saturday afternoon as another disturbance moves through from west to east.
Where this boundary sets up, in addition to southwesterly flow redeveloping in the afternoon, will determine where scattered showers and possibly a few storms end up developing during the day. Coverage remains around 30 to 40% with the best activity likely across our AL/GA counties and rain chances tapering off to around 10 to 20% along and just north of Interstate 10. For temperatures, warm and mild conditions continue for this time of year. Cloud cover could make the forecast a little challenging, especially across AL/GA, but expect near-record temperatures again, especially across our Florida counties where a 2nd day of 90 degree temperatures is possible.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A repeat of Saturday can be expected on Sunday as the last disturbance in the zonal flow aloft moves through. This last disturbance will see a little better support aloft so expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to be more widespread in the afternoon and evening as the wave moves through. Despite much of the shower activity occurring behind/along the main front, the stronger forcing and weak shear in place could lead to an isolated strong storm or two on Sunday evening, mostly across our Florida counties where the best low-level instability is forecast.
However, even here the threat appears on the low end with an isolated possibility for hail and a strong wind gust.
Temperatures will range from the upper 70s across southeast Alabama to the upper 80s across the southeast Big Bend of Florida.

Cooler temperatures move in for the start of next week but with no significant systems on the horizon for much of the following week, the warm up will recommence and we'll likely be back in the mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Weak low-level southwest-west flow and a moist low-level air mass will lend itself to low stratus development overnight, plus some fog development, especially around sunrise on Friday morning.
Reduced visibilities will vanish about one hour after sunrise.
Late Friday morning and Friday afternoon will feature thermally- driven fair weather cumulus.

MARINE
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Favorable boating conditions expected into Sunday of the upcoming weekend with light winds around 5 to 10 knots from the south and seas around 2 feet. Rain and storms should stay away from marine waters until Sunday afternoon/evening when a cold front moves through with thunderstorm chances increasing through the day.
After the front moves through northwesterly flow takes over for the start of next week, possibly bringing a brief period of cautionary conditions before favorable boating conditions return on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Fog will be a concern tomorrow morning for much of the FL counties into SE AL. The greatest potential for dense fog is over parts of the Panhandle. Surface high pressure maintains mostly dry weather and sunny skies, but unseasonably hot inland temperatures are expected with widespread upper 80s to around 90 degrees forecast.
Otherwise, initially west winds turn southwesterly via the afternoon seabreeze along/south of the I-10 corridor. Relative humidity bottoms out roughly between 40 & 45% away from the immediate coast.

Expect a similarly hot start to the weekend, though an approaching front from the northwest prompts returning rain chances with the potential for thunderstorms mainly north of the FL state line Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, the front moves into our region and ushers much better potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Pockets of wetting rain are possible in addition to gusty/erratic winds. The front will also serve as a boundary between west winds ahead of it and north winds behind it with a rather sharp NW/SE temperature gradient.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Rainfall chances increase for the upcoming weekend, but the progressive and scattered nature of these systems will likely lead to less than a half inch of rainfall areawide.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 20 Panama City 66 82 66 81 / 10 0 0 10 Dothan 65 87 65 85 / 10 0 0 30 Albany 65 88 66 87 / 10 0 0 40 Valdosta 65 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 62 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 66 80 67 78 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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