Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skidaway Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:46PMMoonset 1:56AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 548 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 548 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will remain to the east through Friday while a trough of low pressure lingers to the west. Developing low pressure over the gulf of mexico will slowly move north toward the central gulf coast this weekend, possibly lingering through early next week. This pattern will maintain higher than normal rain chances across the area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skidaway Island, GA
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location: 31.91, -81.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 232320
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
720 pm edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain to the east through Friday while a
trough of low pressure lingers to the west. Developing low
pressure over the gulf of mexico will slowly move north toward
the central gulf coast this weekend, possibly lingering through
early next week. This pattern will maintain higher than normal
rain chances across the area.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Boundary interactions and deep moisture convergence, aided by
some upper difluence and weak PVA will continue to allow for
scattered convection, mainly to the W and SW of beaufort and
savannah. Although the overall thermodynamics are unimpressive,
all of the hi-res models show that convection south of the
altamaha river will move in during the mid evening and could
last through the late evening or in some capacity even after
midnight. Heavy rains are the main weather hazard given weak
storm flow and excessive moisture where pwat is near 160% of
normal.

There are no strong indications of anything more than ground fog
or patches of low stratus late tonight, so no need to mention in
the forecast.

Other than hourly temp adjustments to account for the
convection, it'll be another warm and humid night with
persistence the best forecast in regards to low temps.

Previous discussion...

a quick update was issued to increase pops west of highway 17 in
charleston county. A broken line of tstms has recently developed
from roughly summerville to northeast of huger where the sea
breeze intersected the westward moving resultant. No other
changes were made.

Diurnally driven convection will remain confined to areas
along west of the resultant sea breeze circulation through the
rest of the afternoon hours. Most of the convection will
diminish after sunset with the exception of the far southwest
zones where some forcing ahead of a slow moving mesoscale
convective vortex (mcv) moving across central georgia could keep
isolated to perhaps scattered showers tstms going through at
least midnight, possibly longer.

There are concerns that a noctural heavy rain flash flood event
could develop ahead of the mcv, similar to what occurred over
west-central georgia early this morning. However, most data
suggest the core of any such heavy rain and subsequent risk for
flash flooding will remain confined to central east-central
georgia closer to the MCV itself. Per coordination with wfo
peachtree city, a flash flood watch will not be issued this far
to the east. Diurnal cumulus and debris cirrus aloft will
gradually thin through the nigh with the exception of the far
western southwestern zones where debris cloudiness may linger
through daybreak. The risk for widespread fog and low-stratus
remains low, although some shallow ground fog is likely. Lows
will range from the lower 60s near 70 inland with lower-mid 70s
at the coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Thursday into Saturday look to continue the wetter than normal
pattern due to a weakness in the upper ridge over the area and
an inland surface trough, along with a tropical airmass.

Conditions will be more favorable for convective initiation
inland, closer to the surface trough and upper shortwave,
especially during the daytime hours. We continue to show high
end chance to likely pops across inland areas during the daytime
periods, with chance pops elsewhere. Given fairly weak
instability we are only showing isolated thunderstorms. No
significant flooding or severe weather is anticipated at this
time. Temperatures will generally be near to above normal,
especially lows.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Not much pattern change late this week into early next week with
high pressure remaining to the east and low pressure over the gulf
of mexico moving north, most likely toward the north-central gulf
coast. The low could stall out near the gulf coast into early next
week. This pattern will mean the tropical air mass will remain in
place across southeast sc ga leading to the continuation of higher
than normal rain chances, especially each afternoon evening.

Temperatures should generally stay near to above normal.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Ksav: mainlyVFR. But nonetheless keeping a close watch on
convection far to the SW of the terminal which will approach
during the late evening. In all likelihood it will fall apart
before reaching the airfield. Only small chances of flight
restrictions in ground fog stratus late tonight early Thursday
and again in shra tsra Thursday afternoon.

Kchs: mainlyVFR. Low risk of flight restrictions in ground
fog stratus late tonight early Thursday and again in shra tsra
Thursday afternoon.

Extended aviation outlook: a persistent tropical air mass will
lead to higher than normal rain chances into early next week,
mainly each afternoon. Thunder chances will be low, however,
given the limited instability. Some restrictions will also be
possible from morning low clouds and or fog.

Marine
Other than to raise winds 3-5 kt from the earlier forecast to
account for latest trends, the ongoing forecast is working out
well. There is little to no chance of t-storms tonight.

Previous discussion...

tonight: south to southwest winds will prevail with the local
marine area as atlantic high pressure hold firm well offshore.

Winds will generally remain 10 kt or less with seas 2-4 ft.

Thursday through Monday: the area will remain between a trough
to the west and high pressure to the east, with generally
onshore flow prevailing. The gradient will tighten slightly
Friday into Saturday, increasing marine winds a bit, especially
the afternoon sea breeze along the coast. Although confidence
remains low, a tropical cyclone could develop in the gulf of
mexico over the weekend and move north, enhancing the gradient
and potentially requiring small craft advisories for some
waters late weekend or early next week.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 12 mi39 min S 6 G 9.9 77°F 79°F1018.4 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 36 mi87 min SSE 7 78°F 1017 hPa (-1.0)70°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 37 mi37 min SSE 9.7 G 12 76°F 76°F2 ft1017.9 hPa (-0.0)76°F
41033 43 mi139 min S 14 G 19 77°F 79°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA10 mi91 minSSE 910.00 miFair80°F66°F65%1017.2 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA18 mi34 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F68°F69%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4S4S3S4S3S5S6S5S5S5S5SW8S7SW6SW5S6SE9SE10S10SE12S11
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1 day ago------E3E4SE4SE3SE3SE3SE3CalmSE9
G19
SE5SE4S5SE6S5CalmS5SE9S12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3NE4E8E8SE8SE5SE11
G16
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G17
SE8--------

Tide / Current Tables for Vernon View, Burnside River, Georgia
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Vernon View
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT     7.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:00 PM EDT     7.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.13.95.87.27.97.76.653.11.40.30.10.92.54.36.17.37.87.46.24.62.71.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:17 AM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:22 AM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:52 PM EDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:03 PM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:36 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.121.71-0.1-1.2-1.9-2.1-2.1-1.3-0.11.11.921.91.50.6-0.6-1.5-2-2.3-1.9-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.