Sunday, February24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skidaway Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:18PM Sunday February 24, 2019 12:03 AM EST (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 923 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon est Sunday...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this evening. Widespread dense fog. Vsby 1/4 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1/4 nm or less in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ300 923 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A warm front will lift north through the forecast area tonight. Then on Sunday, a cold front will sweep through from the west and move offshore in the evening. High pressure is expected to prevail into the middle of next week and an area of low pressure could pass off the coast late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skidaway Island, GA
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location: 31.91, -81.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 240237
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
937 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north through the forecast area tonight.

Then on Sunday, a cold front will sweep through from the west
and move offshore in the evening. High pressure is expected to
prevail into the middle of next week and an area of low
pressure could pass off the coast late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The overall thinking has not changed from the previous update.

Sea fog is slowly moving inland along the georgia and far
southern south carolina coast, but webcams and surface
observations suggest a dense fog advisory is not yet needed.

Farther inland fog is getting thicker as stratus build-down
commences. Opted to nudge pops to 30% in the savannah-beaufort
corridor based on radar and short-term model trends. Also nudged
overnight lows down a few more degrees in some areas per latest
observations. Still expect temperatures to rise overnight as the
warm front eventually overtakes the quasi-stationary wedge front
lurking across the south.

A complex surface pattern is in place this evening as insitu
cold air damming holds across much of north carolina, south
carolina and into georgia. 23 23z surface analysis placed
a stationary wedge front extending from just offshore of the
charleston county coast to near hilton head, then arcing back
inland along the i-16 corridor into central georgia. North of
the wedge front, fog stratus with areas of drizzle are common,
while south of the front, much warmer conditions are found with
little in the way of fog drizzle, except along the immediate
georgia and far southern south carolina coast where sea fog is
present. Farther south, a sharpening warm front extended from
roughly jacksonville, florida, to alma, ga, then extending
northwest through central into west-central georgia near
columbus, ga. The inland and northward progression of these
features will make for a rather difficult overnight forecast
with a number of forecast challenges to address.

Rain: kclx kvax radars show isolated showers developing just
south of the altamaha river. This activity appears to correlated
to a small area of enhanced isentropic assent along the 305k
isosurface forming just north of the synoptic warm front. The
23 22z rap initialized this activity rather well and actually
shows a slight areal expansion over the next several hours as the
region of isentropic lift propagates northeast into parts of
southeast georgia and eventually south coastal south carolina
through 24 06z. Will likely keep pops in the isolated category
for now, but some areas could definitely see a few hundredths
of an inch over the next few hours, including the savannah metro
area. Once this region of lift exits off the middle south
carolina coast after 1-2 am, expect a mostly dry night.

Temperatures: a large thermal gradient is in place this evening
with the wedge front bisecting the region. Nighttime lows (6pm-
7am) will likely occur this evening for many locations with
temperatures expected to slowly rise overnight as the wedge
front is eventually overtaken from the south by the synoptic
warm front. By daybreak, temperatures are expected to be in the
mid-upper 60s with breezy conditions. Adjusted nighttime lows
slightly based on current observations and short term trends.

Updated temperatures show lows from the lower 50s across far
interior southeast south carolina to the mid 60s along the
altamaha.

Fog: coastal webcams, pilot boat reports and a few ship
observations show widespread dense fog has developed across the
nearshore waters of southeast south carolina and far southern
south carolina. This fog is expected to move steadily
inland and north through the evening hours, impacting coastal
georgia into the beaufort-hilton head areas early, then
spreading well inland and into the charleston metro area
overnight. Dense fog is likely to occur with narre-tl
probabilities for dense fog running well above 80% in many
areas. Dense fog advisories are likely to be issued. The fog is
expected to steadily lift from south-north during the early
morning hours Sunday as the warm front lifts north and low-level
winds increase. Expect the dense fog to mostly clear southeast
georgia by 4-5am and the charleston tri-county area by 6-7am.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Sunday and Sunday night: a fast moving cold front will approach the
are from the west in the morning and then push offshore by the late
afternoon. Good frontal forcing will result in a band of showers
that should maintain across the forecast area. The best rain chances
will be during the late morning to early afternoon with abrupt
drying taking place behind the front. There are some indications of
very weak instability along and ahead of the front, but not enough
to introduce thunder to the forecast. Temperatures will warm quickly
in the morning with upper 70s and even some low 80s possible
depending on how insolation works out. Southwesterly winds will
become gusty in the morning in the warm mixing ahead of the front,
with gusts into the 25-30 mph range expected. Then behind the front
winds will turn westerly and remain gusty as cooler air starts to
filter in. Through the overnight, skies will clear behind the front
and winds will gradually relax. Lows are forecast to range from
around 40 inland to the mid and upper 40s along the coast.

Lake winds: wind. Around lake moultrie will become gusty on Sunday
out of the southwest. Gusts to 25 knots will be possible on the
lakeshore, especially on the south and western sides of the lake.

Then behind a cold front in the afternoon winds will turn more
westerly and northwesterly through the overnight. Gusts to 25 knots
will still be possible and a lake wind advisory could be needed.

Monday through Tuesday: high pressure will prevail through the early
part of the week with quiet conditions. Highs on Monday are forecast
to range from the mid to upper 60s, then into the upper 60s and low
70s on Tuesday. Monday night will bring good radiational cooling
conditions and lows will fall into the upper 30s inland, and mid to
upper 40s along the coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Zonal flow in the mid and upper levels will prevail until late in
the week, when a short wave trough is currently forecast to
approach the region. At the surface there remain model differences,
and as such our confidence Wednesday through Friday is low. Due the
uncertainty we have leaned considerably toward the previous forecast
which shows no more than chance pop's through the period, while
temps will average above normal as the calendar changes from
february to march.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
Widespread fog stratus is expected to impact both kchs and ksav
overnight. The fog could reach ksav very early, then spread into
the kchs terminal in the 03-06z timeframe. Vsbys CIGS below
airfield minimums are likely, especially at ksav where
widespread dense fog is likely. Conditions will improve from
south-north early Sunday as a warm front lifts north, clearing
ksav by 09-10z and kchs 11-13z. A period ofVFR will occur just
before a cold front pushes through the terminal around 17z. The
front will be accompanied by an area of rain. Introduced 5sm in
-ra for now. West northwest winds will prevail after fropa.

Gusty winds will impact the terminal from 12-13z on.

Extended aviation outlook: the next chance of any sub-vfr weather
will not be until the middle of next week. Also, gusty SW and w
winds will occur at times Sunday, peaking around 20-25 kt at
both terminals.

Marine
Tonight: issued a marine dense fog advisory for the georgia and
beaufort nearshore legs through noon Sunday. Widespread dense
sea fog has developed and will move slowly north through the
night, likely impacting charleston harbor and the charleston
nearshore waters. The advisory may need to be expanded later
this evening. Otherwise, winds will turn southerly through the
night with speeds generally holding less than 10 kt. Seas will
average 2-4 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: southwesterly winds will strengthen and
should help to disperse lingering morning sea fog by the late
morning hours. Winds will become strong enough that small craft
advisories will likely be needed, especially for charleston harbor,
the charleston county waters, and the outer georgia waters. Then
overnight behind the front, winds will become northwesterly and
remain elevated close to advisory levels. Conditions will then
become much calmer starting Monday as high pressure builds in, well
below advisory thresholds through the latter part of the week.

Climate
Record highs for february 24...

kchs: 81 2017 and previous
kcxm: 81 1930 ksav: 86 2012
record high mins for february 24...

kchs: 60 1992 and previous
kcxm: 63 2018
ksav: 64 1980

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until noon est Sunday for amz352-354.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 12 mi51 min ENE 6 G 8.9 58°F 58°F1018.8 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 36 mi63 min NE 4.1 60°F 1018 hPa (+0.0)59°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 37 mi73 min N 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 59°F3 ft1018.6 hPa (+0.0)60°F
41033 43 mi55 min ENE 9.7 G 14 56°F 1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA10 mi2.1 hrsENE 34.00 miFog/Mist61°F58°F94%1018.9 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA18 mi70 minE 72.50 miFog/Mist61°F61°F100%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE7NE5NE6E10NE6NE8NE6NE6E5E5E10E8E8E11E10E8E6NE4CalmCalmE6CalmNE3
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmSW3SW4SW3SW7SW6SE8SE7SE8E15NE10E14
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2 days ago--CalmCalmN3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W6CalmSW6E6SE4SE7SE6SE3SE6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Vernon View, Burnside River, Georgia
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Vernon View
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Sun -- 12:15 AM EST     8.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:32 PM EST     7.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:34 PM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.17.96.74.82.60.5-0.6-0.40.92.94.96.57.57.56.64.92.90.9-0.3-0.40.62.34.25.9

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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Savannah River Entrance
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Sun -- 12:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:58 AM EST     -2.90 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:22 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:42 AM EST     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST     -2.79 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:44 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:08 PM EST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.5-1.6-2.6-2.9-2.5-1.7-0.50.81.61.71.30.6-0.2-1.2-2.2-2.8-2.7-2-0.90.31.41.81.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.