Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skidaway Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:19PMMoonset 11:51PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 146 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 146 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A summer-like pattern with above normal temperatures will prevail until a cold front crosses the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will then move in through late week before a stronger cold front likely pushes through Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skidaway Island, GA
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location: 31.91, -81.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 161803
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
203 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
A summer-like pattern with above normal temperatures will
prevail until a cold front crosses the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will then move in through
late week before a stronger cold front likely pushes through
Saturday night.

Near term through tonight
Early this afternoon: radar imagery shows that convection has
initiated across the midlands and just inland of the forecast
area. This makes sense as the visible satellite imagery shows a
very stunted cumulus field. It seems as though we are feeling
the effects of an area of NVA aloft around the large upper ridge
over the western atlantic. Surface analysis shows the front is
still well displaced to the northwest of the area, and as a
result so is the main corridor of low level convergence. Recent
runs of the hrrr and rap aren't handling the current situation
very well. Neither have the ongoing convection, and both seem to
show too much coverage across our forecast area later this
afternoon given the NVA noted aloft and the location of the
front. However, if these solutions work out it will necessitate
a forecast update to reflect much higher rain chances. Also of
note, the storm prediction center has added a marginal severe
weather risk just to the north of the forecast area along the
nc sc border. This makes sense as this area is closer to the
front and has bulk shear values in the 40 knot range thanks to
the proximity of the 500 mb jet. Still think our severe risk is
low as the NVA looks like it will prevail through most of the
afternoon. As far as temperatures are concerned, we have
reached 89 at kchs (breaks the daily record), and 90 at ksav
(ties the daily record).

Tonight: the quasi-stationary cold front will attempt to edge a
little closer to the area. But with a blocking ridge in place
and the front aligned somewhat parallel to the flow aloft, the
front looks to stay outside the region through daybreak
Wednesday. There are lingering boundaries and sufficient
moisture in place through the night to maintain isolated to
scattered showers. But after 7 or 8 pm the potential for
t-storms will end given only minimal instability and the onset
of the nocturnal environment. We'll need to keep watch for some
fog developing, but with partly to mostly cloudy skies and
condensation pressure deficits no lower than about 30 to 50 mb,
there is no need to include in the forecast. Since we're still
south of the front and no change in air mass, we're in store for
one more abnormally warm and humid night. Temps yet again will
be far above climo.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday
A surface cold front likely draped over the forecast area by
Wednesday morning will slowly clear all zones by later Wednesday
evening. Given forcing within the vicinity of the front and
adequate moisture, slight chance to chance pops are reasonable
for much of the day Wednesday. While several synoptic models
indicate the potential for near-record precipitable water values
to be in place, incoherent placement of modeled precipitation
suggests overall low QPF values. Of note, GFS soundings indicate
some ingredients in place for relatively more vigorous
convection from early afternoon into early evening hours.

Showers will continue to clear out prior to sunrise Thursday,
with surface high pressure rapidly building in. A dry forecast
continues Thursday into Friday as the high shifts offshore, with
only a slight chance of showers over our southeastern zones.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will persist late week
heading into the weekend; only a brief period of temperature
moderation will occur as the surface high shifts offshore prior
to another cold front likely arriving into the area this
weekend, ushering in additional cooling. Chance pops are
advertised Saturday into Sunday given the proximity of the
front. Dry and much cooler high pressure then builds back in
behind the departing front.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the evening.

Current thinking is that shower and thunderstorm activity will
remain north of the terminals. Overnight, the upstream front
will migrate closer to the area and there will likely be
isolated to scattered showers for portions of the night. The
best chances will be near kchs and a vcsh has been added
starting at 10z. The biggest question mark revolves around fog
and stratus. The atmosphere is quite similar to last night (when
we had widespread fog stratus right around sunrise) though just
a few degrees warmer. Model guidance is quite split with some
solutions showing another round of fog stratus, and others
showing little to none. Have added a tier of patchy fog almost
everywhere, but no prevailing flight restrictions in the
forecast. The best chance for fog stratus seems to be at ksav,
where it could advect in from the west late tonight. Confidence
it too low at this point, but it will be worth watching through
the evening.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at both terminals. Brief flight restrictions due to
reduced ceilings and or surface vsbys mainly under showers will
be possible. Additionally, low stratus cover and or ground fog
during morning hours is possible.

Marine
Through the middle of the morning: radiation fog and stratus
will impact parts of the port of savannah and the savannah
river, resulting in visibilities as low as 3 4-1 nm. For the
charleston harbor the bulk of the fog and stratus will stay
outside the area, so we're not showing anything more than patchy
fog.

Today and tonight: the waters will be situated along the
southwest and west fringes of bermuda high pressure. W and sw
winds this morning will back to the S with sea breeze influences
this afternoon, then veer back around to the SW tonight. Speeds
will generally be no more than 10-15 kt, and seas will
fluctuate between 2 and 3 ft. Isolated showers and t-storms
could approach charleston harbor and the charleston county
atlantic waters this evening.

Wednesday through Sunday: during Wednesday, seas will generally
average 1-3 feet with 10-15 knots of wind. Winds will then veer
northeast early Thursday behind a cold front and rapid pressure
rises will lead to building winds and seas. Small craft
advisories look increasingly likely for Thursday and may be
needed for a portion of Friday as well, with conditions
gradually improving through the day Friday. Winds and seas could
increase again Sunday as another cold front crosses the region.

Climate
As of 2pm today (10 16), kchs has reached 89 degrees (breaks the
daily record), and ksav has reached 90 degrees (ties the daily
record).

Record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures will be
challenged until midweek. We have listed records that fall within
2-3 degrees of forecast values.

Date location record high record high minimum
tue 10 16 chs 87 (1942) 71 (1985)
cxm 87 (1925) 73 (1933)
sav 90 (1941) -
wed 10 17 chs - 70 (1999)
sav 91 (1921) -

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Bsh 33
short term... Jmc
long term... Jmc
aviation... Bsh jmc
marine... 33 jmc
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 12 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 7 85°F 79°F1018.8 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 36 mi148 min Calm 88°F 1020 hPa (-1.0)72°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 37 mi38 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 81°F 83°F2 ft1018.9 hPa (-2.0)75°F
41033 43 mi140 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 77°F 1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA10 mi32 minWSW 610.00 miFair89°F85°F90%1017.5 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA18 mi35 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F69°F52%1018 hPa

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Last 24hrE7E5E6E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmSW4W3W6W4W3W3W5W5SW6
1 day agoE5E8SE10E6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE8SE6SE9SE6E5
2 days agoW7W4W4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE6CalmE7E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for Vernon View, Burnside River, Georgia
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Vernon View
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Tue -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT     6.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:21 AM EDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:08 PM EDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:19 PM EDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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56.16.96.96.24.93.62.41.81.92.63.756.27.27.67.36.45.13.72.61.92.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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Savannah River Entrance
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Tue -- 02:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:24 AM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:59 AM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.2-0.2-0.8-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.4-0.70.20.91.210.50-0.5-1.3-1.9-2.1-1.9-1.3-0.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.