Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Richmond Hill, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:22PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:35 PM EDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 3:55PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm...including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1033 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft... Building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers. Thunderstorms likely...mainly in the evening.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas can be higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1033 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A series of disturbances will track across the southeast states through midweek. A cold front will push offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will then prevail through next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richmond Hill, GA
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location: 31.95, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221442
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1042 am edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
A series of disturbances will track across the southeast through
midweek. A cold front will push offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure will then prevail through next weekend.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
A somewhat more active day is on tap with regard to convection
coverage. A weak cold front remains draped across central ga/sc
and is expected to remain quasi-stationary through tonight. A
nearly continuous stream of upper shortwaves will move through
our western zones today, enhancing the forcing for ascent in
these areas. Modest instability will develop during pockets of
sunshine and low-level dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute
to pws of 1.7-1.9". There is not much dry air aloft and mid-
levels are rather warm so the severe weather potential continues
to look rather low. 0-6 km mean wind remains less than 15 kt
much of the day, so storm motion will be weak. The sea breeze
may initiate some activity early this afternoon, though better
coverage is expected farther inland associated with approaching
shortwaves. Locally heavy rainfall is possible due to efficient
rain-producers and slow movement. Given the dry antecedent
conditions we are not overly concerned with the flash flood
potential.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Thursday/
Tonight: convection will gradually wane this evening as
instability diminishes and the sea breeze moves inland. However,
increasing warm air advection/low-level jetting and the
continued presence of a moist environment will support the
redevelopment of scattered to possibly numerous showers/tstms
after midnight. The strongest low-level jetting is progged to
occur across the coastal waters and feeding into the lower south
carolina coast, so likely pops will be placed there for the
early morning hours Tuesday. It will remain humid with lows
ranging from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast. A
few coastal locations that remain out the rain have the
potential for temperatures to only bottom out in the upper 70s
given the boundary layer is expected to remain fairly well
mixed.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: in the upper levels a longwave trough
axis roughly over the ms valley will be amplifying while shortwaves
are rounding the base and moving to the east/northeast, towards our
area. At 850 mb, a 40-50 kt jet will provide forcing for ascent
within deep layer of moisture. Pwats approaching 2" should be near
record values for the day. This regime will numerous/widespread
showers. The precipitation is not expected to be steady throughout
the entire day. Instead, occasional breaks appear the most likely.

Should also note the naefs mean integrated WV transport Tuesday
night approaches 5-6 standard deviations across our area. Locally
heavy and excessive rainfall could occur. Instability is not overly
impressive. Thunderstorms are expected, but the overall severe
threat should remain low.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: the longwave trough axis will
remain over the ms valley, but continue to amplify. Naefs suggest it
strengthens to roughly -4 to -5 standard deviations over the lower
ms valley for this time of year. Another more intense shortwave will
be rounding the base and heading in our direction along with a jet
streak. The 850 mb jet will be about 35-45 kt, but the deep layer of
moisture will persist with pwats approaching 1.8", again near record
values for the day. The mid/upper level features will push a strong
cold front toward the region. This regime should again support
numerous/widespread showers. The convective threat could be much
greater on this day. If a break develops between the Tuesday night
precipitation and pre- frontal convection, the combination of deep-
layered forcing for ascent, 0-6 km bulk shear increasing to 40-50
kt, and destabilization could support severe weather, especially in
the late afternoon/evening. Lapse rates appear to be steep enough
inland, but low level instability is more uncertain. The shortwave
will cross through our area overnight, ushering the cold front with
it. Convection will wind down from west to east overnight as drier
air builds into our area. Though, remnant showers could persist
along the coast.

Thursday: the amplified trough axis will be over the east coast
while a cold front will be just offshore. Some showers could persist
along the coast, closer to the departing cold front. However, these
showers will end by late morning or early afternoon as high pressure
builds in from the west. It could be breezy behind the front in the
morning, with winds easing into the afternoon. Thickness values
support below normal temperatures despite increasing sunshine. Highs
should be in the lower 80s.

Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/
A ridge building across the east coast combined with surface high
pressure will provide dry weather in the long term along with a
gradual warming trend each day.

Aviation /15z Monday through Friday/
Main concern for the terminals today is possible impacts from
afternoon showers/tstms. Mesoscale models still suggest kchs
will have the better chances for impacts early this afternoon
for tstms. Maintained a tempo group from 17-20z to account for
this. Limited conditions to MVFR, although briefly lower
conditions will be possible. Convection looks to remain west of
ksav, but it could be close. Will not include a mention of tsra
just yet given bulk of the guidance keeps showers/tstms to the
west.

Extended aviation outlook: an unsettled weather pattern will bring
periods of flight restrictions through Wednesday night.

Marine
Today: a southerly wind regime will prevail today as the marine
area remains positioned between high pressure centered well
offshore and an approaching slow moving cold front. Speeds will
generally remain <15 kt today with seas averaging 2-3 ft.

Tonight: winds will increase overnight in response a tightening
pressure gradient and strengthening nocturnal jet. Winds should
peak 15-20 kt nearshore waters and 20 kt over the georgia
offshore leg. Gusts could approaching 25 kt at times, but mixing
should be somewhat subdued in the warm air advection regime.

Seas will respond to the increasing wind, reaching as high as
3-4 ft nearshore waters and 4-5 ft over the georgia offshore
waters. Some guidance suggests seas could breach 6 ft over the
georgia offshore leg and the far eastern portions of the
charleston county waters early Monday, but the latest nwps
output keeps seas just below. Will hold off on raising a small
craft advisory, but an advisory may need to be considered later
today should the 22/12z ww3 continue to advertise winds reaching
6 ft.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: between offshore high pressure and
inland low pressure and an approaching cold front, small craft
advisories will likely be required for areas outside charleston
harbor as southwest winds increase and gust to 25-30 kt and and seas
build to 4-6 feet nearshore and to 5-8 feet beyond 20 nm.

Thursday through Friday: a strong cold front will cross the waters
Thursday, and elevated offshore winds could remain at SCA strength.

Then, winds/seas should relax significantly by Friday.

Chs watches/warnings/advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Jrl
short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 24 mi59 min SSW 6 G 8 83°F 80°F1017.4 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 37 mi95 min S 2.9 85°F 1018 hPa (-1.0)73°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 45 mi105 min S 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 78°F2 ft1018.2 hPa (+0.0)73°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA11 mi97 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds85°F74°F72%1017.2 hPa
Ft. Stewart, GA13 mi37 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F68°F57%1016.2 hPa
Savannah, Savannah International Airport, GA15 mi42 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F68°F59%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS3SE8SE8SE7SE8SE7----SE4----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----SE8SE8SE8SE12

Tide / Current Tables for Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Highway bridge
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Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.20.100.20.40.811.110.90.70.50.20.1-0-00.30.711.21.21

Tide / Current Tables for Fort McAllister, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Fort McAllister
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     8.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.41.22.84.76.276.96.14.83.31.70.4-0.30.11.746.27.687.46.24.73

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.