Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Hope, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:50PM Monday January 22, 2018 9:15 PM EST (02:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 904 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy dense fog. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1/4 nm or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 904 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail today as a weak coastal trough moves inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the week. Another cold front will likely impact the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Hope, GA
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location: 31.98, -81.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 222358
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
658 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail today as a weak coastal trough moves
inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday
morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the week.

Another cold front will likely impact the area early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
On our early evening update, initial temps near shore were
tweaked down a couple of degrees per latest observations. We
have started to see a few reports of low stratus near the
immediate coast, perhaps an indication that sea stratus and
fog will eventually impact some of our coastal areas later
this evening.

A mature surface low and its accompanied deep mid level cyclone
will lift NE through the upper midwest toward the great lakes
region. A trailing cold front from the triple point occlusion
will extend south to the gulf and moves into our far w-nw tier
close to daybreak. This keeps us firmly embedded within the warm
sector through the night, with an increasingly moistening air
mass due to a southerly low level flow and deep SW flow above
that.

Most of the forecast area will be rain-free early tonight.

However, forcing from the approaching front, a 130-140 kt upper
jet off to the NW and a 35-45 kt low level jet moving through
will lead to increasing convective rain chances during the late
evening and overnight. There are mixed signals regarding how
things pan out, with some indications that upstream activity
will do the proverbial split, with the best dynamics off to the
nw and the greatest moisture and instability to the s. For that
reason we have nothing more than 60-70% chances moving in during
the post- midnight period. The progressive nature to the
showers and the possibility that we will be robbed from some of
the moisture, QPF looks to be less than 1 4 inch.

Regarding any t-storm potential, there is limited and mostly
elevated instability and poor lapse rates. However, given strong
shear and modest upward vertical velocities supports at least a
low risk of a few t-storms. We will carry a slight chance of
t-storms all areas after midnight.

After an abnormally warm day, increasing low level wind fields
will prevent temps from dropping too much through the night,
with most places inland from the coast not falling below 60f
until close to sunrise, if at all. The record high minimum temp
at kchs could be challenged (see climate section below).

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Tuesday: a cold front will shift offshore during late morning hours
with dry high pressure building in its wake. FROPA will put an end
to precip generally from west to east by noon. Temps will remain
mild until FROPA occurs, peaking in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees before going through a cooling trend during mid-late
afternoon. Cold air advection behind the front should also support
deep mixing in the low-lvls, creating gusty winds around 15-20 mph
for much of the day. A lake wind advisory could be needed Tuesday
afternoon. Skies should clear out by the evening, setting up a fair
radiational cooling night as high pressure settles over the region.

In general, low temps should dip into the upper 30s away from the
immediate coast.

Wednesday and Thursday: dry high pressure will dominate the pattern
during the second half of the week over southeast south carolina or
southeast georgia. Despite sunny skies, weak cold air advection to
the region will keep temps cooler than experienced early week. In
general, high temps will peak in the upper 50s lower 60s on
Wednesday under a zonal flow aloft, then peak a degree or two cooler
on Thursday behind a h5 shortwave shifting offshore. Wednesday night
lows should dip in the mid 30s away from the immediate coast.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
High pressure will prevail Thursday night into Friday, bringing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Models are in excellent
agreement showing a strong cold front approaching from the west
Saturday, then moving through the region on Sunday. Given the great
agreement, we have pops gradually increasing on Saturday, then rain
highlighted on Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are
not out of the question, but we're still several days out.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr at both sites at 00z and into this evening. However, as low level
winds increase tonight, lower ceilings will develop, trending down
at least into the MVFR range and continuing through most of
Tuesday morning. With the stratus looming along the coast and
prefrontal moisture below the boundary layer inversion, ifr cigs
will probably occur for a period later tonight or Tuesday
morning. Our confidence for timing and areal extent too low for
any TAF inclusions as yet. A cold front will bring light to
moderate shra to both sites overnight into Tuesday morning, with
a very low risk of isolated tsra, maybe knocking visibilities
down to 5nm. Conditions will improve Tuesday afternoon with
decreasing clouds in the afternoon.

Although presently not shown in the tafs, there is a chance of
llws overnight as a 35-45 kt low level jet moves through. Since
it is marginal due to surface winds of 10-15 kt, we will defer
to later TAF issuances to see if it should be included.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected at both chs
and sav terminals through late week. Gusty winds around 15-20 mph
are possible at both terminals Tuesday afternoon behind a cold
front.

Marine
Tonight: the sub-tropical atlantic ridge will pull further east
as a cold front travels quickly through the tn valley and
northern gulf coast region into the SE states before daybreak.

Warm advection will negate a good chunk of the 35-40 kt low
level winds from mixing down, but we still expect conditions to
reach marginal sca's on the amz350 and amz374 waters prior to
sunrise. Thus we have raised the advisory flags for these bodies
of water starting at 5 am Tuesday due to frequent gusts of 25 kt
or higher and some 6 foot seas (especially on the outer ga
waters). Isolated t-storms are also expected in advance of the
cold front after midnight.

Sea fog will be a cause for concern, but the overall favorable
conditions are low, so nothing more than "patchy" fog is
mentioned at this time. Initially and fog would be across the
ga nearshore waters this evening, spreading into the sc waters
thereafter as the flow turns s-sw. But as it does so speeds
increase substantially and then convection moves in. So the risk
for dense fog appears low, but since it is already mentioned in
the hazardous weather outlook, we will leave it as is.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: a cold front will push through the
coastal waters late morning with dry high pressure building in its
wake. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient along FROPA and cold air
advection behind it will support marginal small craft advisory level
conditions in northern south carolina waters and offshore georgia
waters Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Thus, a small craft
advisory will be ongoing until 5 pm Tuesday. A small craft advisory
could also be needed for the chs harbor Tuesday morning, but
confidence remains lower. Conditions will improve over all waters
Tuesday night as the pressure gradient weakens while high pressure
settles over the region.

Wednesday through Friday: sfc high pressure will dominate the
coastal waters during the second half of the week, but there could
be a period of enhanced winds Wednesday night when an h5 shortwave
shifts offshore. A small craft advisory could eventually be needed
for some of the waters. Conditions are then expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels late week with winds at or below 20 kt
and seas as high as 4-5 ft.

Climate
Record high minimums for 23 january:
kchs: 62 1999
kcxm: 66 1937
ksav: 65 1937

Equipment
The kclx radar remains out of service until further notice.

Repairs are ongoing. Adjacent radars include: kltx, kcae, kjgx,
kvax and kjax.

The downtown charleston observation site (chls1 kcxm) remains
out of service until further notice.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 am to 5 pm est Tuesday for amz350-
374.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 9 mi46 min SSE 6 G 8.9 62°F 47°F1017.7 hPa
41033 40 mi68 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 52°F 49°F1017 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 41 mi136 min SSE 12 65°F 1017 hPa (-1.0)64°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 41 mi86 min SE 12 G 14 58°F 52°F2 ft1017.4 hPa (-0.9)57°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA6 mi20 minSSE 610.00 miFair62°F59°F90%1016.9 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA14 mi23 minS 610.00 miOvercast63°F61°F93%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E7E5E5SE6SE7S9SE9SE9SE6E5SE8SE6
1 day agoCalmS3CalmSW3W5CalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW4SE8S5S9S3SE5SE5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W4W8NW8W10SW7SW7SW3S4S6S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Isle of Hope, Skidaway River, Georgia
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Isle of Hope
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Mon -- 05:37 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:07 PM EST     7.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:11 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.16.55.13.31.60.40.21.12.74.56.177.47.164.32.40.8-00.31.63.45.16.4

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:02 AM EST     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:36 PM EST     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:35 PM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.6-1.1-0.40.61.41.81.610.5-0.2-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.901.11.91.91.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.