Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Hope, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday June 25, 2017 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:01AMMoonset 9:09PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm...including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 333 Am Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. Showers and tstms likely this afternoon. Rain heavy at times with vsbys less than 1 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Rain heavy at times in the evening with vsbys less than 1 nm.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 333 Am Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will gradually move into the area today, then linger just offshore into Monday. High pressure will build in from the northwest by mid week, before it moves into the atlantic for the second half of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Hope, GA
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location: 31.98, -81.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 250805
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
405 am edt Sun jun 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will gradually move into the area today, then linger
just offshore into Monday. High pressure will build in from the
northwest by mid week, before it moves into the atlantic for the
second half of the week.

Near term through today
A cold front moving slowly south across central georgia and the
south carolina midlands early this morning will stall out inland
from the coast later today as subtropical ridging steadily
retreats farther offshore. The front coupled with deepening
atmospheric moisture, modest instability and quasi-geostrophic
forcing ahead of a weak, elongated 700 hpa shortwave rippling
across the carolinas will be the focus for numerous to
widespread showers tstms, beginning later this morning and
continuing through the afternoon hours. Pops have been raised to
60-80% for most areas, except 50% in the millen-allendale
area, with an axis of locally heavy rainfall potentially
setting up in the savannah-charleston corridor as the afternoon
sea breeze interacts with the cold front.

The latest wpc QPF guidance supports a broad swath of 1-2 inch
rainfall amounts through sunset, but locally higher amounts
could occur where slow moving convective element train. There
will be a risk for localized flooding as the mean flow between
925-850 hpa becomes rather light and chaotic after 18z. With
pwats forecast to be over 2 inches, minor flooding of low-lying
and poor drainage areas is likely, but pockets of flash
flooding can not be ruled out especially where the sea breeze
and other convectively induced mesoscale circulations
intermingle.

Highs should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 for most areas
with the exception of the savannah-ludowici-darien corridor
where greater breaks in the cloud canopy later this morning
could help push highs into the 92-94 degree range.

Short term tonight through Wednesday
Tonight: showers tstms will gradually diminish overnight as
instability and upper level support wane. The stationary front
will continue to linger just inland from the coast through
daybreak with the leading edge of the lower dewpoints forecast
to remain just to the west and northwest across east-central
georgia, the csra and southern midlands. 50-70% pops will be
held through the evening hours with pops lowering with time.

There will be a continued risk for at least minor flooding, but
a more substantial flood risk could develop for downtown
charleston if heavy rains fall during the elevated high tide
around 1008 pm. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the
mid-upper 70s at the beaches.

Monday and Tuesday: the main challenge in the short term is the
location of the cold front. All models agree that a long wave
trough will be over the eastern half of the country Monday and
Tuesday. They disagree on the location of the front. The front
will be wedged between atlantic high pressure well offshore and
continental high pressure building in from the northwest. The
interaction between these features will drive the exact location
of the front, which will affect our local weather. The current
forecast has the front lingering just offshore Monday, then
shifting a bit further offshore Tuesday. Given the vicinity of
the front, chance pops are in the forecast Monday, highest near
the coast tapering inland. Following a nocturnal decrease in
showers over land they should increase Tuesday afternoon, again
with the highest pops being near the coast and tapering inland.

But with the front and it's associated moisture and meager
instability further away from our area Tuesday, the overall
coverage of showers should be less. The severe threat will be
low both days because the best instability will be well
offshore, away from our area. Tuesday night shower activity will
decrease, especially as the front is pushed away by the
continental high building to the northwest. Cooler air
associated with the high will allow lows to drop into the mid
60s across far inland, the upper 60s most other locations, while
the immediate coast is in the lower 70s.

Wednesday: the center of high pressure will move from the mid-
atlantic states in the morning to offshore of the nc outer banks
by late in the day. This will allow southeast flow to develop
across our area late in the day. But beforehand, dew points will
be low for this time of year, generally the upper 50s far
inland to the mid lower 60s elsewhere. This will make it feel
very comfortable outside, especially with mostly sunny skies and
high temperatures around 90 degrees.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
The center of high pressure will move offshore of the nc outer banks
Wednesday night, and drift further east and out to sea through
Saturday. Southerly flow will develop across the southeast during
this time period. Temperatures will trend back to normal and
moisture will increase, bringing a return to the typical summertime
shower thunderstorm pattern. The risk of showers storms appears to
increase each day into the weekend.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Early morning shower activity looks to pass north of ksav, but
could impact kchs through about 09z. Impacts will be brief with
this activity with no long term reductions in either vsbys to
cigs expected.

The main concerns center on the timing of potential TSTM impacts
at both kchs and ksav. Weak front is forecast to meander into
the region this morning and serve as the main focus for
shower TSTM develop later this morning and lingering into the
afternoon. Latest guidance suggests most morning activity will
remain west of the terminals, but impacts appear likely this
afternoon, especially at ksav. For now, will carry tempo groups
for MVFR vsbys from 19-22z at kchs and 18-21z at ksav given
timing coverage uncertainties this far out. As is typical in
summer time convective regimes, pockets of lower conditions will
be possible for brief periods as heavier convective elements
push through.

Extended aviation outlook: periods of flight restrictions are
expected Monday and maybe Tuesday due to a cold front lingering
offshore.

Marine
Today: the early morning noctural surge will weaken after
sunrise with south to southwest winds of 10-15 kt prevailing
today. Seas will subside to 2-3 ft.

Tonight: south to southwest winds will diminishing to 5-10 kt,
except 10 kt over the georgia offshore waters as a cold front
stalls just inland from the beaches. Numerous showers tstms will
likely impact the waters with vsbys dropping to less than 1 nm
at times in locally heavy rainfall. Seas will average 1-2 ft
nearshore waters and 2-3 ft georgia offshore waters.

Monday and Tuesday: the cold front should meander over or just e-se
of the of the waters, held in position by atlantic high pressure to
the e-se and continental high pressure to the nw.

Models continues to show large variations over the location of the
front, so it's hard to pin down the exact position. We went more
with a blend, weighted towards the gfs, which has the front further
offshore than the ecmwf. This gives is NE winds no more than 10 kt.

Seas will average 2-3 ft.

Wednesday and Thursday: continental high pressure slides off the nc
coast, as its associated ridge axis orients itself back into the
southeast states. This sets up a more typical late june pattern with
gentle to moderate easterly breezes, and the long onshore fetch in
turn allows for seas to build another foot or two higher.

Rip currents: conditions will be close to a low-end moderate
risk for rip currents at the beaches today. However, even
forecasting some swell energy and the inclusion of rip currents
from Saturday, risk probabilities only end up in the high-end
low category due to diminishing astronomical influences and
weaker winds at the beaches this afternoon.

Tides coastal flooding
Tide levels could approach 7.0 ft mllw in the charleston harbor
with the evening high tide, while fort pulaski looks to remain
well below 9.2 ft mllw. A low-end coastal flood advisory may be
needed for the lower south carolina coast, possibly only
including charleston county.

The evening high tides will continue to be elevated through Monday
due to lingering astronomical influences. The total departures will
be driven by the position of the cold front and the resulting winds
that are either parallel to the coast or onshore. Coastal flood
advisories are still not out of the question for the coastal areas
from charleston county to beaufort county.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 9 mi43 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 84°F1017.4 hPa
41033 40 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 5.8 82°F 84°F1016.8 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 41 mi55 min Calm 79°F 1017 hPa (-1.0)75°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 41 mi65 min WSW 9.7 G 12 83°F 82°F3 ft1017.4 hPa (+0.0)75°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA6 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair77°F75°F93%1016.5 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA14 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair77°F73°F88%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW4SW5W5W6SW6W8W13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5S5S4CalmCalmSE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Isle of Hope, Skidaway River, Georgia
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Isle of Hope
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Sun -- 04:22 AM EDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:38 AM EDT     8.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:00 PM EDT     9.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.15.730.5-1-0.80.62.95.27.18.28.47.45.63.20.7-1.1-1.20.22.75.47.89.410

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:03 AM EDT     -2.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:21 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:20 PM EDT     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     2.91 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-2.5-2.7-2.4-1.40.21.52.22.11.71.10-1.2-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.501.72.72.92.41.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.