Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tybee Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday May 28, 2017 6:37 AM EDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:16AMMoonset 10:28PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 328 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas can be higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 328 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will linger over the region today. A weak cold front will gradually sag south through the area Monday through Wednesday...then lift back north late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tybee Island city, GA
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location: 32.03, -80.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 280754
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
354 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will linger over the region today. A weak cold
front will gradually sag south through the area Monday through
Wednesday, then lift back north late week.

Near term through tonight
Today: the ongoing area of convection (mcs) upstream of the
forecast area continues to diminish in coverage and intensity as
ir satellite imagery reveals warming cloud tops. However, it
will be interesting to see how the residual outflow from this
convection evolves through the morning and into the afternoon as
it could eventually serve as a initiation mechanism later
today. The pattern aloft will feature nearly zonal flow as the
forecast area is situated between the ridge and anticyclone over
the gulf of mexico and a upper low over the upper midwest and
central canada. However, this will not be benign zonal flow as
models depict a series of potent shortwaves that will be poised
to translate eastward through the day. The good news is that
forcing associated with these embedded shortwaves appears to be
solidly north of the forecast area. At the surface, high
pressure to the south will result in westerly low level flow
with a late day sea breeze that will bring more southwesterly
flow along the coast. Despite the fact that the large scale
forcing will pass by to the north, strong heating and the
potential presence of the residual outflow boundary could help
kick off isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Model soundings
show that any thunderstorms would mainly impact the south
carolina zones where a much weaker cap would be in place
compared to southeast georgia.

If storms are able to initiate, the near storm environment is
potentially quite interesting. Various model solutions show a
well defined elevated mixed layer with steepening mid-level
lapse rates in the -7 to -8 c range. Dcape values could be as
high as 1000-1200 j kg, with hail CAPE approaching 1000 j kg.

Furthermore, a 50+ kt 500 mb jet is progged to extend west east
across the northern half of the forecast area, which would
increase 0-6 km shear into the 40 kt range. With all this in
place, the forecast area is in a marginal risk area in the spc
day 1 outlook which seems quite reasonable. There are
uncertainties for sure, including the impact of lingering debris
clouds on surface temperatures and resulting buoyancy. Also,
the fact that the main slot of forcing will be north of the area
should temper expectations. The expectation is the coverage
will be isolated at best, but the convective mode should favor
discrete cells if they are able to develop. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail would be the main impacts, but given the
potential shear some rotating storms would be possible. Another
source of uncertainty is the feeling that current model
solutions are struggling with the current convection and any
subsequent convection later in the day. So, the risk is not
particularly high or widespread, but certainly something to
watch.

Tonight: if any storms develop in the afternoon, they should
diminish quickly in the evening with the loss of heating.

Through the remainder of the overnight, dry and mild conditions
should prevail. Lows will likely not fall below 70 for most
areas.

Short term Monday through Wednesday
The upper ridge will gradually weaken and shift east Monday
into Tuesday, allowing more shortwave energy to push into the
area. A weak cold front will move into northern ga and far
western nc sc Monday afternoon, then approach the local area
Tuesday afternoon.

Monday looks rather toasty as warm low-level thicknesses reside
over the area, ample sunshine occurs, and low-level flow is
westerly. Highs expected to be in the mid 90s away from the
coast. Model soundings show a decent mid-level cap until the
afternoon which will probably preclude convective development
until later in the day. There won't be much forcing for
convection on Monday though it's possible that some activity
will develop over the sc midlands and push east-southeast late
in the afternoon. Convective parameters would be conducive for
some severe thunderstorms given extensive dry air off the
surface and capes of 1500-2000 j kg.

Tuesday is looking more active than Monday given the continued
breakdown of the upper ridge and shortwave energy making its way
into our inland zones during the day. The surface front pushing
in late in the day will also provide a trigger for convection.

We increased pops a bit during the afternoon. Convective
parameters looks similar to Monday except the cap is weaker in
the morning. There would be enough 0-6 km shear to support some
multicellular organization, and the dry air aloft will be
conducive for damaging winds.

Slightly cooler temps expected Wednesday as the front remains
stalled over the area and more cloud cover is present. There
will be enough forcing for isolated to scattered convection
mainly in the afternoon, though instability and shear will be a
little lower than mon-tue.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
A fairly active period is in store as a quasi-zonal flow exists
aloft and weak shortwave perturbations continually traverse the
area. With increasing moisture through late in the week and
daytime temps in the upper 80s or low 90s, scattered to numerous
showers and tstms expected to develop mainly during the
afternoon and evenings.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions expected to prevail through 06z Monday. One
thing to keep an eye on will be the slight chance of
thunderstorms near kchs tomorrow. An outflow boundary from
ongoing thunderstorm activity could settle over the area during
peak heating tomorrow and serve as an initiating feature.

Coverage should be limited, if indeed there is any, so there is
no mention in the TAF at this time.

Extended aviation outlook: mainlyVFR conditions. Brief flight
restrictions possible in mainly afternoon evening showers tstms
starting Monday.

Marine
Today through tonight: overall the setup is quite similar to
the last couple of afternoons. Morning westerly flow will shift
to more southwesterly in the afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. We will see enhanced flow mainly along the land sea
interface with a solid 15-20 knots along the charleston county
coast. Elsewhere 10-15 or a solid 15 knots is expected. The
thinking is again that conditions in charleston harbor will stay
just below small craft advisory thresholds. Seas are expected
to be 2-3 feet.

A slightly stronger gradient will persist into Monday with a
decent 15 kt sea breeze possible in the afternoon. Thereafter,
fairly weak winds and small seas are expected as a front drops
into the area and lingers through the week.

Tides coastal flooding
High tide will again be elevated this evening due to the new
moon and perigee. Fortunately the wind directions are not very
conducive for surge, but we could see very marginal coastal
flooding along the south carolina coast during the evening high
tides Sunday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Jrl
long term... Jrl
aviation... Bsh jrl
marine... Bsh jrl
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 3 mi49 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1013 hPa
41033 29 mi89 min WSW 7.8 G 12 78°F 77°F1012.6 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 42 mi112 min Calm 71°F 1013 hPa70°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 44 mi47 min W 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 77°F2 ft1013.3 hPa (-0.4)68°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 48 mi97 min SW 1.9 72°F 1014 hPa (+0.0)65°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC15 mi62 minSW 310.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1012.9 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA16 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair70°F68°F95%1012.4 hPa
Savannah, Savannah International Airport, GA20 mi44 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F62°F78%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4W4W4W4W4--W8SW6SW7W6W10W10W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmS4S4
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Tide / Current Tables for Tybee Light, Savannah River, Georgia
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Tybee Light
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Sun -- 04:50 AM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:01 PM EDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:12 PM EDT     8.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.55.73.51.3-0.4-0.9-01.83.95.877.36.85.53.71.6-0.2-0.9-0.21.646.27.88.5

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Sun -- 03:04 AM EDT     -2.76 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     2.33 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:09 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:23 PM EDT     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:49 PM EDT     2.89 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-1.7-2.5-2.8-2.5-1.6-01.42.22.21.81.20.2-1.1-2-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.21.42.62.92.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.