Monday, April24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:02PM Monday April 24, 2017 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 4:40AMMoonset 5:10PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm...including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 740 Am Edt Mon Apr 24 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms this morning...then a slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas can be higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 740 Am Edt Mon Apr 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A low pressure system will affect the area through Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the area through the weekend. A cold front could affect the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, GA
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location: 32.03, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 241154
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
754 am edt Mon apr 24 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system will affect the area through Tuesday.

High pressure will then build into the area through the weekend.

A cold front could affect the area early next week.

Near term /through tonight/
At sunrise: the band of very heavy showers and thunderstorms is
starting to become very well defined across the tri-county area
and colleton county. The worst scenario is unfolding in downtown
charleston we are currently at a high tide of 7.2 ft mllw in
concert with very heavy rainfall occurring. The swath of deepest
moisture is finally starting to feel the affects of the strong
upper level forcing as the closed low moves in. Pop's are in
good shape and focus on the region where the heaviest rain is
currently ongoing.

Today: a complex scenario is beginning to unfold this morning
and will continue through the day. The main focus is on the well
defined mid/upper level low currently situation to the west.

This feature is progged to ride to the southeast, take on a more
neutral to negative tilt, and begin to push across the forecast
area late this afternoon. As this feature draws closer, we will
see some rather impressive dynamics take hold and provide
significant forcing for ascent. For a few days now the models
have advertised a rather impressive slot of upper level jet
divergence occurring coincident with strong low level
convergence within a belt of high precipitable water air. In
fact, precipitable water values will be 1.5 inches or greater
which is near or above observed MAX values for 4/24. All of this
forcing is expected to result in a band of very heavy rainfall,
the main forecast question is then where exactly where this
band setup? For the past few days model consensus has favored
the tri-county region for the heaviest rain, and this generally
remains the case. The main fly in the ointment at this point is
that the ongoing precipitation has already pushed so far east
that now it seems to reason that the area with the best chance
to see the heaviest rain would also shift ever so slightly to
the east and northeast. This thinking is supported by the 00z
gfs as well as the most recent runs of the hrrr and rap. The
band of heaviest rain should begin to take shape around or just
after sunrise, and then slowly translate to the east mainly
through the morning. By the afternoon, the bulk of the heaviest
rain should be finished except across far eastern charleston and
berkeley counties. No changes have been made to the going flash
flood watch, and forecast rainfall amounts reflect this slight
shift in the projected axis of heavy rain. Storm total rainfall
amounts are still expected to be in the 2-4 inch range across
colleton county and the tri-county region, with a narrow area of
up to 6 inches possible closer to the santee river.

Temperatures are tricky today as much of southeast georgia
should see a good bit of sunshine, and even possibly the tri-
county late in the day. The forecast features upper 70s for
southeast georgia with mid 70s elsewhere. This would mean a very
limited diurnal range since current temperatures are in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Tonight: the upper low will complete its swing through the
forecast area and the associated surface low will push off to
the east and eventually merge with a low off the southeast
coast. We may see some lingering showers in the evening
associated with the upper low, but the rainfall event will
essentially be over. We will likely see stratus developing
overnight which will keep skies overcast, especially late. It
will be noticeably cooler with lows falling into the mid to
upper 50s.

Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/
The vertically-stacked low pressure system will lift out to the
northeast on Tuesday while shortwave ridging occurs across
southeast ga. Some showers may linger across northern areas
through the morning but should be tapering off as the day wears
on. Increasing low-level thicknesses and some clearing supports
highs across far southwest zones reaching 80. Elsewhere,
extensive cloud cover and weak cold advection will keep temps
from rising above the middle 70s.

Deep layered ridging Wednesday will result in mostly sunny
skies and highs in the middle 80s. A weak shortwave will ripple
across western portions of the area on Thursday though the best
forcing for showers will remain to the west. Otherwise warm
advection will yield another warm day with highs in the
mid/upper 80s.

Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/
A strengthening upper ridge and strong atlantic high pressure
will maintain above-normal temperatures and mainly dry weather.

Friday and Saturday will probably reach the lower 90s across
inland southeast ga with upper 80s elsewhere. A cold front is
expected to approach next Monday, possibly bringing some rain.

Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/
Kchs: the main near term concern is the developing area of very
heavy showers and thunderstorms that will soon begin to impact
the terminal. Will initialize with prevailing vcts and a tempo
for +tsra with ifr visibility. This will likely continue till
noon before the axis of heavy rain begins to shift to the east.

The rest of the afternoon should bringVFR ceilings and winds
shifting to southwest and eventually west. Then late tonight
confidence is high in developing low MVFR ceilings, with
potential for ifr ceilings. Introduced these ceilings starting
at 06z.

Ksav: all signs point to sav being rain free today and very
likelyVFR through the afternoon. The main focus here will then
be late tonight when an area of low ceilings develops and moves
in around 06z. Introduced MVFR ceilings but ifr will be quite
possible.

Extended aviation outlook: ceiling restrictions will remain
possible at kchs until early to mid Tue afternoon.

Marine
Today: an area of low pressure will cross inland areas and its
passage will eventually bring about a shift to more
southwesterly flow late. A small craft advisory remains in
effect for the charleston county waters and the outer georgia
waters, account for 25 knot gusts and seas up to 6 feet.

Elsewhere, winds should top out in the 15-20 knot range and fall
just short of advisory thresholds.

Tonight: once the surface low passes to the east, winds will
turn westerly. Winds will top out in the 15-20 knot range with
seas 3-5 feet, except up to 6 feet in the charleston county
waters and the outer georgia waters.

Offshore winds on Tuesday will return to southerly by Wednesday
and persist through the weekend as atlantic high pressure
maintains control. The small craft advisory for the offshore ga
waters will linger until early Tuesday afternoon primarily for
some 6 ft seas beyond 40 nm.

Tides/coastal flooding
The predicted morning high tide is 5.7 feet, which means a
residual of approximately 1.3 feet would be needed to reach
the coastal flood advisory threshold for charleston harbor.

Thanks to persistent and elevated onshore southeasterly flow
along the coast, residual values have stayed above 1.3 feet
since around 10 pm last night, and only continue to rise. Given
that this set up is expected to stay the same through the time
of high tide, confidence is high that charleston harbor will
reach 7 feet. As such, a coastal flood advisory is in effect
until 9 am.

Climate
Record rainfall amounts for 24 april:
kchs: 0.81" set in 1943,
kcxm: 1.12" set in 1937,
ksav: 1.55" set in 1941,

Chs watches/warnings/advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... Flash flood watch until 6 pm edt this evening for scz044-045-
050-052.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt this morning for scz050.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Tuesday for amz374.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Jrl
long term... Jrl
aviation... Bsh/jrl
marine... Bsh/jrl
tides/coastal flooding... Bsh
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 17 mi55 min SW 7 G 9.9 72°F 74°F1004.9 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 42 mi85 min SW 9.9 70°F 1005 hPa (+0.0)67°F
41033 46 mi77 min WSW 12 G 16 72°F 72°F1004.5 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 47 mi95 min SSW 12 G 16 72°F 72°F4 ft1004.9 hPa (+0.5)68°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA4 mi27 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F69°F96%1004.3 hPa
Savannah, Savannah International Airport, GA8 mi32 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast70°F64°F84%1005.1 hPa
Ft. Stewart, GA21 mi27 minW 810.00 miOvercast64°F60°F89%1005.3 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW10
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SW9S7W6SE7SE10SE14SE13SE11S9S9S8S5S7S5S4S7S6S4CalmCalmSW3S4S7

Tide / Current Tables for Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Highway bridge
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Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:20 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:40 PM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.70.50.30.1-000.30.60.91.11.110.80.60.40.1-0-0.10.10.50.91.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:33 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:15 AM EDT     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:55 PM EDT     2.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:30 PM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-1.20.11.42.12.21.71.10.3-0.9-1.9-2.2-2.1-1.6-0.41.12.22.62.21.50.6-0.6-1.8-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.