Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garden City, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:26PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 4:51 AM EST (09:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 11:27PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 303 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
.gale warning in effect from 10 am est this morning through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft this afternoon. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ300 303 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will affect the area into Thursday with cool and dry high pressure then returning through this weekend. A cold front could move through early next week with a few showers followed by cool and dry high pressure once again into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garden City, GA
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location: 32.07, -81.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 140930
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
430 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will affect the area into Thursday with cool and
dry high pressure then returning through this weekend. A cold
front could move through early next week with a few showers
followed by cool and dry high pressure once again into the
middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Pre-dawn: conditions were relatively homogeneous across the
forecast area with widespread low clouds and temps in the mid
50s on average. Patches of light rains and drizzle have been
lingering along coastal sc overnight, while steadier light rains
continue adjacent to the csra and sc midlands. Surface high
pressure centered to our north was anchoring a strengthening
wedge pattern and this should lock in the stratus clouds as
dawn approaches.

Today: a deep mid level cut-off low pressure area area across
the southern plains is forecast to drift northeast across
arkansas. This low was anchoring an impressive plume of deep
moisture which water vapor satellite imagery shows an origin off
southwest mexico and the south pacific. As this system evolves
and shifts into the southeast u.S. Today, the most significant
upper forcing will coincide with strong 850 mb theta-e advection
and boundary layer convergence inland from our forecast area.

Strengthening isentropic ascent is expected to result in
increasing chances of measurable rains across our entire area
and we suspect expanding areas of wet weather will be the norm
as the day wears on. Temps are expected to be warmest as we
start the day with readings steady or slowly falling many areas
as rains increase throughout the day. As strong and colder high
pressure builds into new england today, low level pressure
gradients will strengthen across ga and the carolinas resulting
in increasing northeast winds. It will become windy on the
beaches and barrier islands and conditions may approach wind
advisory criteria along some areas of the coast by this evening,
dependent on where the tightest pinching of the low level
gradients occurs.

Tonight: a developing coastal low is forecast to move along
our coast after midnight to a position along the central to
upper sc coast around 12z Thursday. We should see soaking rains
develop across the forecast area with some embedding convective
elements at times. Instability is forecast to remain offshore
however some layers of elevated instability will pass along
coastal areas and while a few lightning strikes may occur, we
opted to leave thunder out over the offshore atlantic. Qpf
amounts could be higher than what we are showing but our timing
and placement fields kept rainfall amounts conservative at this
point. A few bands of 2 inch amounts could certainly occur
given the deep moisture and dynamics available, not to mention a
powerful lower level jet atop the boundary layer. Temps will be
in the 40s well inland to the 50s along coast with breezy to
windy conditions as you get closer to the coast in the evening.

Lake winds: we may need a lake wind advisory on lake moultrie
tonight given the tight low level gradient and wind fields just
off the deck. We increased the forecast to 15-20 kt on this
package and allow the next shift time to access the very complex
mesoscale evolution.

Short term Thursday through Saturday
Confidence is high this period. Expect improving conditions Thursday
as low pressure moves farther away up the coast. Rain should
generally end from south to north Thursday morning although a few
showers could linger across the sc lowcountry into late Thursday
afternoon. Instability looks minimal over land but can't rule out a
few thunderstorms mainly near the charleston county coast early in
the morning. Otherwise high pressure will build in and prevail
through the end of the week. The main concern late week will be the
potential for some frost Friday and Saturday morning across inland
areas where temperatures could reach the mid 30s. The best chance
for at least scattered frost will likely be Saturday morning though
when winds are lighter.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
Dry weather will prevail through early next week as cooler high
pressure moves into the area. A weak area of low pressure may
develop offshore and cause a few showers mainly near the coast.

Temperatures should mostly stay near normal.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Ifr CIGS continue to look prevalent throughout the forecast
period ending at 06z Thursday. Forecast soundings show a
persistent inversion at or slightly above 1 kft and while low
clouds may scattered out at a few locations, we think the
strong moisture advection pattern today into tonight should lock
in the low CIGS as rains increase later today and especially
this evening. Surface winds will increase with a potential for
low level wind shear tonight which later cycles will investigate
once trends become more certain with the track of the approaching
surface low late in the 06z TAF cycle.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions, likely below ifr at
times, expected much of Thursday, especially at kchs. Otherwise no
significant impacts expected through the weekend.

Marine
We have remained persistent in our message for a significant marine
event through tonight. Gale warnings will be going into effect today
as strong thermal and moisture gradients result in pinching low
level gradients. 40-50 kt 1000 mb geostrophic flow suggests winds
will peak somewhere from late afternoon to late evening across
our forecast legs. Seas will build 6-10 ft during this time with
12 foot or greater seas out closer to the gulf stream.

Conditions are expected to be hazardous to small craft until the
passage of a surface low occurs on Thursday morning.

Thursday through Sunday: quite poor marine conditions expected into
early Friday as a storm system moves north of the area. Small craft
advisories will likely come down Thursday afternoon for the
nearshore waters but linger through Friday morning for the offshore
ga waters. Otherwise no significant concerns through the end weekend.

High surf: gale conditions will cause seas to build today into
tonight. Five foot breakers are expected in the surf zone,
especially along northeast facing beaches. A high surf advisory
goes into effect.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong northeast winds will fuel increasing positive tidal
anomalies through tonight. Tonight's tide shortly after
midnight may see some greater than +2 ft departures at both
downtown charleston and fort pulaski. While it looks uncertain
that we reach coastal flood criteria, the main concern for
steady and substantial rains falling around the tide of high
tide may result in a mix of fresh and salt water flooding.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... High surf advisory from noon today to 5 am est Thursday for
gaz117-119-139-141.

Sc... High surf advisory from noon today to 5 am est Thursday for
scz051.

High surf advisory from noon today to 8 am est Thursday for
scz048>050.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz350-
352-354-374.

Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 1 am est Thursday for
amz352-354-374.

Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 3 am est Thursday for
amz350.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 am est
Thursday for amz330.

Near term...

short term... Rjb
long term... Rjb
aviation... Rjb
marine... Rjb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 11 mi52 min NNE 8 G 12 59°F 67°F1021 hPa (-0.3)
41033 40 mi44 min Calm G 0
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 46 mi52 min N 8 60°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)59°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 48 mi67 min N 2.9 57°F 1021 hPa57°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 48 mi62 min NNE 16 G 21 65°F 72°F3 ft1019.6 hPa (-0.0)62°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA3 mi1.9 hrsNNE 710.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1019.9 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA7 mi59 minNNE 59.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1020.5 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC24 mi57 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast59°F57°F94%1021 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4SW5SW6SW7SW8SW7SW5NW11N12NE7N10--NW11N6N5N3CalmNW8N10N9N7NE7
1 day agoN3NE4NE5N4N4NE5NE3CalmNE4NE6NE5NE6E5E5CalmW4CalmCalmSE5S6CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE6NE7NE6NE5N6NE7NE7N4N8E7NE6NE6NE3NE4NE6NE6NE4NE5NE6N6NE6CalmNE4N7

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah (Bull Street), Georgia
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Savannah (Bull Street)
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Wed -- 12:36 AM EST     7.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     1.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:13 PM EST     7.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:38 PM EST     1.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.17.26.75.53.92.51.81.62.33.65.16.47.47.87.66.95.53.92.61.81.72.43.85.2

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Wed -- 01:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:57 AM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:08 AM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:14 PM EST     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:43 PM EST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.4-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.2-1-0.40.41.21.51.41.10.70-0.8-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.30.71.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.