Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 7:35PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 12:07 AM MST (07:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates CDP, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 280355
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
855 pm mst Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis Seasonably hot daytime temperatures will prevail into
early next week. Dry conditions will also occur through Friday
followed by isolated afternoon thunderstorms mainly east to south of
tucson Saturday through next Tuesday.

Discussion Ir satellite imagery and surface observations depict
clear skies across much of southeast arizona this evening. The
exception was across far southeast cochise county where some
convective debris cloudiness was noted associated with a decaying
mcs over east-central sonora mexico. Surface winds valid 8 pm mst
were wly nwly at 5-15 mph.

28 00z ktwc sounding total precip water value of 0.61 inch was down
0.30 inch versus just 12 hours ago. Dew points at lower elevations
valid 8 pm mst ranged from the mid 20s-lower 30s, and these temps
were 10-25 degrees lower versus 24 hours ago. The very dry regime
was also evident via water vapor satellite imagery, and was due to
wly nwly flow throughout the column.

Clear skies will prevail across much of the area the rest of
tonight, with any clouds of significance expected to be confined to
far southeastern sections. Several hrrr solutions and the univ of az
wrf-nam and wrf-gfs suggest that outflow from the decaying MCS may
produce a dew point jump later tonight, especially southeast of
tucson. Any lower level moisture of significance will quickly mix-
out Wednesday allowing for sunny skies across much of the area.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

Aviation Valid thru 29 06z.

Clear skies or a few clouds around 15k ft agl especially southeast
of ktus into Wednesday evening. Surface wind Wednesday afternoon
wly nwly 10-20 kts with gusts to near 30 kts. Strongest speeds
northeast of ktus and particularly near ksad. Surface wind variable
in direction less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Dry conditions through Friday. Isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms are forecast to return this weekend into
early next week. The bulk of these thunderstorms will be east to
south of tucson. West to northwest winds at 10-15 mph Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons, with the strongest speeds northeast of
tucson and especially in vicinity of safford. 20-foot winds will
then be mainly less than 15 mph Friday into early next week.

Prev discussion 210 pm mst Dry air continues to overspread the
area this afternoon as the sharp drying noted on all 3 goes-16 water
vapor channels is steadily marching eastward. Deep bl mixing has
allowed surface dewpoints to fall from the 40s and 50s this morning
into the upper 20s and lower 30s across a good portion of the
forecast area. Outside of a lone storm that formed shortly before
noon over the chiricahua mtns, skies have remained precip free
through 21z. That being said, there has been some CU development
over the mountains of santa cruz county where dewpoints remain
slightly elevated.

The forecast remains on track for the rest of the afternoon evening
hours with the continued advection of dry air into the area. Any
storms that develop from mid afternoon onward should be short lived
and dissipate shortly before sunset with the loss of daytime
heating. I will maintain the slight chance mention in the mountains
of far eastern arizona until 03z, but even these locations may end
up dry for the rest of the day.

The story for much of the next 5-6 days will be one of unfavorably
positioned high pressure aloft for widespread thunderstorm
development with the ridge axis located off the california coast.

The resultant westerly flow across the area is obviously far from
ideal for afternoon convection and it won't be until late this
weekend or early next week before we see the high center shift and
position itself over new mexico. In the meantime, a few afternoon cu
in the mountains are just about all that one can hope for in terms
of sensible weather. There is a generalized consensus that moisture
will return early next week once the high sets up to our east and
only at that point should we see a return to more typical monsoon
weather.

As for temperatures, above normal values both during the day and at
night will be the rule although nothing anywhere near as hot as what
was seen last week. Upper level heights and temperatures do not
support a return of those types of values at any point during the
next week.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Francis
prev discussion... Leins
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ6 mi4.4 hrsWNW 910.00 miFair99°F32°F10%1009.8 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi74 minSW 410.00 miFair89°F37°F16%1006.9 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair87°F36°F17%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SE7SE8SE7S6S7SE8S5CalmSW6N5W11W9SW9W12
G17
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G24
W14W13
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NW9NW4SW4SW4
1 day agoE5SE20
G27
S8SE15SE10E8E7E7E6CalmCalmNW5N4N6NW6NW12NW13
G21
NW11NW14N11NW6N3N3S8
2 days agoSE20
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E16E10E16
G24
SE12SE11SE10SE95N3NE4W8W6W6W7NW7N9
G18
NW16
G21
NW9
G18
NW5SW5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.