Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:22PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 6:12 AM MST (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates CDP, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 201115
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
415 am mst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis A few showers may occur on thanksgiving day
mainly near the mountains as a weak system moves across the area.

Another system may bring isolated snow showers to the white
mountains Saturday night. Otherwise, dry conditions with seasonably
mild daytime temperatures into early next week.

Discussion Ir satellite imagery and surface observations depicted
mainly broken cirriform clouds resulting in mostly cloudy skies
across southeast arizona early this morning. These clouds were ahead
of a weakening upper low approaching the southern california coast.

Various 20 00z numerical weather prediction models depict the upper
low to weaken further and become an open-wave structure while moving
eastward across arizona today.

The models suggest that precip-free conditions will prevail across
this forecast area today, with any measurable precip to occur
further east toward far west texas. Clouds should begin to decrease
across western sections this afternoon, and skies should be clear
across much of the area by daybreak Wednesday. Clouds will increase
again later Wednesday and especially Wednesday night into early
Thursday ahead of the next upper trough approaching the west coast.

Several gfs ECMWF solutions prior to 19 00z were suggesting that the
best chance of measurable precip associated with the progressive
trough across the area thanksgiving day would generally occur north
of this forecast area. However, the deterministic 19 00z GFS ecmwf
as well as the 19 06z GFS depict the potential for some light rain
amounts to occur further south, or mainly southeast to south of
tucson on thanksgiving day.

Thus, the inherited pops for these locales were adjusted upward to
depict a slight chance of showers, which is a change from a
previously dry forecast. A few sprinkles may also occur Thursday
within the tucson metro area, but any measurable rainfall is nearly
non-existent. Dry conditions will prevail across the area Thursday
night into Saturday. A slight chance of snow showers continues
Saturday night across the white mountains as the next upper trough
moves southeastward into the central southern rockies.

Interesting to note that the 19 00z deterministic GFS now has the
deeper depicted upper trough scenario (several previous gfs
solutions were much flatter), and the 19 00z deterministic ecmwf
depicted a flatter upper trough (several previous ECMWF solutions
were much deeper with this system). At any rate, dry conditions
Sunday into next Monday under generally nwly flow aloft.

High temps this afternoon will be quite similar to temps achieved
Monday, and will generally range about 2-5 degrees above normal. A
gradual cooling trend is on tap Wednesday through Friday followed by
no significant changes in daytime temps Saturday into Monday.

Aviation Valid through 21 12z.

Mainly broken clouds above 15k ft agl today becoming clear skies to
few clouds above 20k ft agl by end of forecast period or around
daybreak Wednesday. Surface wind into early afternoon ely sely 5-15
kts with gusts near 20 kts. The strongest speeds should occur east
of ktus. Surface wind late this afternoon into early Wednesday
variable in direction mainly under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather A few showers may occur on thanksgiving day mainly
near the mountains, and a slight chance of snow showers exists
across the white mountains Saturday night. Otherwise, dry conditions
to prevail into next Monday. Expect locally gusty east to southeast
winds into early this afternoon, and gusty northwest winds may occur
Saturday northeast of tucson. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven
under 15 mph at other times.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Discussion... Francis
aviation... Hardin
fire weather... Hardin
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ6 mi28 minE 510.00 miFair45°F28°F53%1017.3 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair49°F24°F38%1015.2 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi75 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds52°F19°F28%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE10SE7S5CalmN4NW55N5N5NW5N4CalmS4S4CalmS7S7S7S6SE7SE6SE7Calm
1 day agoS8SE7SE6SE4S43CalmCalmCalmNW4N6N5N5W5SW3S5SE4S7SE7SE7SE7SE7SE6SE8
2 days agoSE9SE9SE10SE73Calm55N3NW6NW4N6N5W5S6SE6S6SE6SE7SE6CalmSE7SE7S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.