Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton Head Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:48PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:06 AM EST (12:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:44PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 329 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 329 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will extend across the region through Wednesday. A cold front will push offshore early Thursday with high pressure then prevailing through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton Head Island, SC
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location: 32.22, -80.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221143
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
643 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will extend across the region through Wednesday.

A cold front will push offshore early Thursday with high
pressure then prevailing through early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 630 am: winds are expected to veer by 10 to 20 degrees by
the peak of high tide. Coastal flooding appears on track for chs
and sav, peaking before 9 am.

As of 5 am: based on latest observations, I will update to
warm this morning's temperatures into the upper 20s.

As of 350 am: the center of a 1040 mb high will shift south
over eastern va nc by this afternoon. High pressure is forecast
to ridge south across the forecast area through today, with the
ridge axis along the east facing slopes of the appalachians. By
late this afternoon, an inverted sfc trough is forecast to
develop over the gulf stream. Llvl flow is expected to shift
from the SE this afternoon, resulting in moisture to increase
across the forecast area. Generally, conditions will feature dry
weather with steady NE sfc winds, mid to low clouds are timed
to spread onshore during the afternoon hours. Using a blend of
mos guidance, I will forecast around 50 across the charleston
tri-county to upper 50s along the altamaha river. The forecast
will feature isolated to scattered showers across the outer ga
waters early this afternoon, slowly pushing onshore over SE ga
late this afternoon.

Tonight: the center of sfc high pressure will shift over the western
atlantic as the center of a low pressure system tracks from the
great plains over the mid west. As a cold front sweeps across the
southern mississippi river valley, return flow across forecast area
will develop across the cwa. In fact, the inverted sfc trough will
likely become a warm front, sliding onshore after midnight. Low
level isentropic lift across the warm front is expected to develop
during the evening, peaking during the late evening, persisting
through the rest of the overnight. I will forecast schc to chc pops
for showers, generally yielding less than 0.05" of qpf. Low
temperatures may cool only 5 to 7 degrees from today's highs.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
A weak coastal trough will lift north through the area Wednesday
morning, potentially accompanied by scattered showers. 0-6 km
flow will be out of the southwest at 40-45 kt on Wednesday which
will result in strong low-level warm air advection. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies will dominate, mainly due to low clouds
associated with the coastal trough. Highs will rise into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

A potent upper trough will push a cold front through the area
Wednesday night. Impressive moisture advection ahead of the
front will bring unseasonably high pwats around 1.75" to the
area. The right entrance region of an elongated upper jet will
also be overhead late Wednesday night. A nearly continuous band
of showers will move through the region Wednesday night with the
brunt of the rain falling between midnight and daybreak
Thursday. We maintained a mention of isolated thunderstorms
across southeast ga and the coastal waters late Wednesday night
when some weak elevated instability will move through. QPF will
generally be 1-1.25".

The guidance is a tad slower with the front pushing offshore
Thursday. Fairly widespread showers are possible Thursday
morning with the brunt of the activity moving offshore in the
afternoon. Thursday will also be unseasonably warm with highs in
the low to mid 60s.

Friday will feature sunny skies and cooler weather as high
pressure builds over the area. Highs will be in the mid 50s.

Long term Friday night through Monday
Dry high pressure will prevail Friday night through Monday, then
a cold front could approach next Tuesday. Temperatures will be a
few degrees below normal.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Prior to the 12z tafs, IR satellite indicated that thin cirrus
was streaming across terminals. The cirrus extended several
states upstream of the forecast area. Under ridging sfc high
pressure, I will forecastVFR conditions with steady NE winds
through this afternoon. Llvl lift will increase this evening,
starting over SE ga and spreading northward. The combination of
increasing moisture and increasing llvl forcing should support
MVFR ceilings with periods of light rain at ksav. Stratus over
kchs is forecast to remain just withinVFR levels.

Extended aviation outlook: MVFR ceilings possible late Tuesday
night through Wednesday as a warm front lifts north. MVFR ifr
cigs vsbys likely Wednesday night into Thursday as rain
associated with a cold pushes through. Gusty winds possible
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Marine
Today and tonight: the center of sfc high pressure will remain to
the north as a cold front slides across the lower mississippi river
valley. A inverted trough warm front will develop over the gulf
stream this afternoon, pushing onshore this evening. Winds will
remain from the northeast, then shifting southeast tonight. Frequent
gusts across the outer ga waters should frequently reach 25 kts
tonight. Seas are forecast to range between 3 ft to 5 ft within 20
nm through tonight. Seas will increase to 6 ft across the outer ga
waters tonight. A small craft advisory has been posted from amz374,
beginning this evening.

Southerly winds will slowly increase during the day Wednesday as
a strong cold front approaches, increasing further Wednesday
night as a strong low-level jet moves overhead. Warm air
advection over relatively cold water will limit mixing, but
with such strong low-level winds we will at a minimum see solid
small craft advisory conditions. There is a possibility for
brief gale force wind gusts beyond 15 nm from shore where the
water is warmer.

Cold air advection Thursday into Friday will produce better
mixing, however low-level winds will simultaneously decrease.

Small craft advisory conditions likely to continue in most
waters into Thursday or Thursday night before diminishing. High
pressure will build over the waters Friday into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
This morning, the combination of astronomical forces and
northeast winds will likely support high tide levels around 7.1
ft mllw at chs and 9.2 ft mllw at sav. Coastal flood advisories
have been issued for the coast from 7 am until 10 am.

We cannot completely rule out minor coastal flooding with
Wednesday morning's high tide, though with wind directions
switching to southeast, the anomaly should drop as high tide
approaches.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Coastal flood advisory until 10 am est this morning for gaz117-
119-139-141.

Sc... Coastal flood advisory until 10 am est this morning for
scz048>051.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am est Friday
for amz374.

Near term... Ned
short term... Jrl
long term... Jrl
aviation... Jrl ned
marine... Jrl ned
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 15 mi36 min NE 15 G 20 38°F 52°F1034.4 hPa
41033 20 mi58 min NE 19 G 27 42°F 1033.7 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi81 min NNE 2.9 31°F 1035 hPa13°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 57 mi66 min NNE 12 G 15 36°F 1035.8 hPa (+1.1)22°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC4 mi16 minN 810.00 miFair34°F21°F60%1035.2 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC15 mi31 minNE 11 G 167.00 miFair32°F21°F64%1035.2 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC18 mi4.2 hrsNE 710.00 miFair33°F12°F43%1034.5 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA23 mi13 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F15°F52%1034.7 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA24 mi10 minNNE 810.00 miFair33°F17°F53%1033.8 hPa

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW10SW12SW12
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65SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Skull Creek, south entrance, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
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Skull Creek
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Tue -- 03:02 AM EST     -1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:16 AM EST     9.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM EST     -1.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:45 PM EST     8.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.51.1-0.9-1.8-1.113.76.48.39.297.65.63.10.6-1.1-1.3-0.12.14.56.57.787.2

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:44 AM EST     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:19 AM EST     3.02 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:17 PM EST     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:48 PM EST     2.45 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:25 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.3-2.4-2-0.90.82.232.92.21.30-1.4-2.4-2.8-2.7-1.9-0.51.12.22.42.11.40.5-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.