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FXUS64 KJAN 250550 AAC AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A band of light showers is diminishing as it shifts slowly southeastward across East MS this evening. This activity was occurring along a stalling front. We can't rule out a few more isolated showers along this front overnight, but most areas will remain dry. Otherwise, no forecast changes are planned this evening. /DL/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the tonight period to Wednesday May 1st...the overall take on the forecast is mostly above normal and warm for temperatures with a focus on a couple interesting periods. The first being Saturday for increased winds/gusts of 30-40 mph then a opportunity for rain/storms early next week.

The near term is generally quiet with a weak front making it way into the N sections of the forecast now and will stall later tonight. Some low end precip chances will exist on Thursday across the N due to the proximity of the front and a weakening wave moving out of AR. As we wrap up the week and get into the weekend, the pattern will favor stronger ridging to develop just to our E while a more potent trough and stronger system moves into the Plains.

With the system impacting the Plains more on Fri-Sun, our area will still be under the influence of mid/upper ridging. However, we will see a tightening pressure gradient by Friday. Look for some breezy conditions on Friday, but strong winds by Saturday with decent potential to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph by Saturday afternoon. I will add a graphic to highlight that threat.

Most precip/storm activity will remain to our W/NW into the weekend.
However, by later Sunday afternoon/night...we should see a weakening ridge thus increased potential to get precip/storms into our W/NW by this time. NBM Guidance captures the probability well and fits the potential progression.

For Monday-Tuesday...Uncertainty is quite high to start the week as our area will see a mid/upper trough move into and across the area.
While a signal is consistent for the trough and resulting rain/storm chances, the specifics and details will matter and we're very far from getting that that. This is the time of year where convective activity across the S Plains wreaks havoc on predictability for us.
MCS's often develop to our W/NW and translating boundaries and remnant MCVs set the stage for activity the following day. Global guidance is offering such solutions, but timing, shear/cold pool orientation are varying, thus instability and potential for any strong/svr storms is quite variable. Best course at this time is to follow the consensus guidance and note there's potential for rain/storms with some possibility for svr/heavy rains, but overall confidence is low.

For mid-week, the signal is much better as the governing pattern shifts to one of building heights as a ridge axis gets established.
This will bring quiet conditions, but warmer and above normal to start May. /CME/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Around 10Z Thursday, patchy fog may development in southern MS and LA, reducing ceilings and visibilities. As a result, MVFR/IFR flight conditions will be possible near HBG and PIB. Any fog development is expected to dissipate near sunrise. After 14Z Thursday, flight conditions are expected to return to VFR. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 83 62 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 83 61 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 84 64 85 69 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 86 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 84 65 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 80 64 83 68 / 20 0 0 10 Greenwood 81 64 83 67 / 20 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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