Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bluffton, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:20PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:12AMMoonset 3:53PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 304 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..S winds 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and Thunderstorms...mainly in the evening.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely...mainly in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas can be higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 304 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A series of disturbances will track across the southeast through midweek. A cold front will push offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will then prevail this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bluffton, SC
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location: 32.24, -80.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221956
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
356 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
A series of disturbances will track across the southeast through
midweek. A cold front will push offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure will then prevail this weekend.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
Numerous showers and tstms have developed this afternoon across
portions of southern sc and ga, mostly propagating nne. Pws of
1.8 to 1.9" supporting locally heavy rainfall with the
convection. The seabreeze has begun to develop based on coastal
wind directions and the erosion of cumulus right at the coast.

This, plus the concentration of upper vorticity energy over
inland areas will tend to push the greatest convection coverage
away from the coast and toward inland areas. Thus we have the
likely pops over inland areas through early this evening.

A lull is expected from mid to late evening before speed
convergence in low-level jetting over the waters induces new
shower and TSTM development offshore. Additional showers and
tstms should develop later tonight across inland areas as
greater PVA shifts over the area ahead of more shortwave
activity. Instability will remain fairly weak so severe wx is
not much of a concern, though localized flooding is possible
given the high pws.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/
On Tuesday, a cold front is expected to run across the piedmont
of the carolinas and ga. Short range guidance indicates that a
front wave will develop along the cold front across ga or sc.

The front wave is forecast to track NE along the front during
the daylight hours on Tuesday. Model forecast soundings suggest
that LFC levels will remain below 2 kft with pw values around
1.9 inches. In addition, a wide field of 1500-2000 j/kg cape
will develop along and east of the front/wave. Convection should
easily form near the frontal wave, supporting categorical pops
for showers and thunderstorms. Shear between 0-6 km will likely
range around 40 kts, yielding loosely organized clusters or
bands of thunderstorms. It is possible to see a few damaging
wind events with the stronger storms. Perhaps more likely,
rainfall rates may become quite heavy during the passage of
thunderstorm clusters, see tide section below. High temperatures
should verify within a degree or two of 80 degrees on Tuesday.

Based on the timing of the frontal wave, coverage of deep
convection should shift NE during the evening hours. It appears
that a noteworthy decrease in coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will occur across forecast area Tuesday night,
highlight with pops decreasing to chc. Lows Tuesday night are
forecast to range in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday, deep sfc low pressure should organize across the ohio
river valley. Short range guidance indicates that a cold front
will approach from the west during the daylight hours. At the
mid level, h5 trough will swing across the deep south during the
afternoon, gfs1deg shows a wide field of h5 q-vector convergence
will spread west to east across the cwa. The environment ahead
of the cold front is forecast to see CAPE values pool to 1500
j/kg with sweat peaking near 400. I would expect that a band of
deep convection will form along and ahead of the cold front.

Given the synoptic scale forcing, instability, and shear, the
severe risk could peak Wed afternoon and evening. High temps
should range very close to values expected for Tuesday. Dry air
will spread east across the region Wednesday night.

Thursday, large low pressure will circulate across the mid west
and great lakes regions as high pressure builds over the gulf
of mexico. The sfc pressure gradient is forecast to range from
2-3 mbs across the forecast area. Wsw winds should remain gusty
across forecast area, especially during the morning.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
A ridge building across the east coast combined with surface high
pressure will provide dry weather in the long term along with a
gradual warming trend each day.

Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/
The greatest chance for convection will gradually shift west of
the terminals as the sea breeze pushes inland. However, scattered
coverage across southeast ga may affect ksav before 6 pm.

Scattered showers possible overnight at kchs as some activity
develops ahead of another shortwave.

Another round of convection expected during the day Tuesday but
with the best coverage inland we did not mention convection at
either terminal.

Extended aviation outlook: an unsettled weather pattern will bring
periods of flight restrictions through Wednesday night.

Marine
Low-level jet strengthens later tonight as shortwave energy
approaches the area. Sustained winds will increase to 15-20 kt
later tonight with some gusts approaching 25 kt over outer
portions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: weak low pressure will track ne
along a sfc front across during the daylight hours Tuesday. SW winds
across the marine zones will increase through day. Gusts across
amz350 and 374 are forecast to exceed 25 kts by the afternoon. Wave
heights are forecast to build to 3-4 feet within 20 nm and around 5
feet across amz374. Small craft advisories may be needed for
Tuesday. In addition, rounds of thunderstorms are forecast across
the marine zones on Tuesday. Winds may decrease slight Tuesday
night, however, wave heights are forecast to gradually build through
the night.

Wednesday through Wednesday night, SW winds will increase as a cold
front approaches from the west. SCA conditions are expected. Marine
zones should see common gusts to 25 kts within 20 nm and around 30
kts beyond 20 nm. Wave heights are forecast to peak Wednesday night,
with 6 feet possible within 20 nm and up to 9 feet across eastern
amz374. Then, winds/seas should relax significantly by Friday.

Tides/coastal flooding
Evening high tide levels will trend higher each day approach
the new moon perigee this Friday. The mean lower low water
(mllw) levels are forecast to remain below flood stage. However,
it is possible that thunderstorms could pass over urban coast
areas during the evening high tide cycle. Rainfall rates could
exceed 0.75/hr during any thunderstorm. The combination of
elevated mllw water levels and heavy downpours could result in
deep street and sidewalk water.

Chs watches/warnings/advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Jrl
short term... Ned
long term... Ms
aviation... Jrl/ned
marine... Jrl/ned
tides/coastal flooding... Ned


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 14 mi46 min S 9.9 G 14 79°F 80°F1015 hPa
41033 23 mi86 min S 12 G 16 78°F 79°F1014.1 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 30 mi109 min SSE 1 77°F 1015 hPa75°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 58 mi44 min S 12 G 14 77°F 78°F2 ft1014.1 hPa (-2.3)73°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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SE6
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SE7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC8 mi44 minS 810.00 miOvercast79°F75°F89%1015.2 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC17 mi39 minS 87.00 miThunderstorm77°F71°F83%1014.9 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC18 mi38 minS 56.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain Fog/Mist78°F75°F93%1015.3 hPa
Savannah, Savannah International Airport, GA20 mi1.7 hrsE 1110.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity81°F70°F69%1013.4 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA22 mi36 minSSE 9 G 1910.00 miThunderstorm81°F74°F82%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE6SE44SE7
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S7S11SW7S5--S4SW6S4S5S3S8S8SE6
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1 day agoSE10S7S565
G10
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G17
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6S6S6S6S6S6SE9SE8--SE6SE6SE7S8
G14
2 days agoSE4SE4SE564
G10
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S8S7CalmS5CalmCalm3CalmE4SE4S5S7S10S8SE7S10--S12

Tide / Current Tables for Bluffton, May River, South Carolina
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Bluffton
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Mon -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     8.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     9.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.723.85.77.28.18.17.15.43.31.3-0.2-0.30.72.85.17.38.79.28.6752.8

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:12 AM EDT     2.00 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:35 PM EDT     2.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.80.41.521.81.30.7-0.1-1.2-1.8-2-1.8-1.10.11.42.32.41.91.10.2-0.9-1.9-2.2-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.