Wednesday, July26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday July 26, 2017 12:29 AM EDT (04:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 9:54PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1033 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1033 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Broad low pressure will remain across the carolinas and georgia through tonight. A weak cold front will then stall over or near southeast south carolina through Thursday. Another cold front will move into the area this weekend and stall into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 260229
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1029 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017

Synopsis
Broad low pressure will remain across the carolinas and georgia
through tonight. A weak cold front will then stall over or near
southeast south carolina through Thursday. Another cold front
will move into the area this weekend and stall into early next
week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 1020 pm: IR detected rapidly warming cloud tops and radar
indicated largely stratiform rainfall across SE ga. It appears
that the remaining rainfall will generally dissipate before
midnight. I will update the forecast to increase sky cover and
decrease pops. Latest runs of the hrrr have indicated that the
rest of the night will remain quiet. However, near range
guidance shows that the core of the mid level low will reach the
altamaha river by day break. As the low approaches, convection
is expected to develop near the coast and drift inland. Based on
the guidance, I will maintain chc pops beginning around dawn.

Otherwise, temperatures across most of the forecast area is
expected to remain steady at the latest readings in the mid to upper
70s.

As of 725 pm: at the top of the hour, an automated raingauge at
midville, ga indicated that 3.11 inches of rain fall in one
hour. At this time, a multi-cell thunderstorm over mcintosh was
producing torrential rainfall rates that ranged close to what
was observed at midville. In addition, a line of thunderstorms
should drift north across the altamaha river valley, likely
raining out and becoming stratiform rain by 10 pm. Elsewhere,
light stratiform rain should continue or areas that are dry will
remain dry overnight. However, there is a chance that
convection may approach berkeley county form the north. I will
update the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends and
thinking.

Previous discussion:
to start, ahead of an upper low advancing east across southern
ga, thunderstorm coverage will range from numerous widespread
across SE ga to isolated scattered across SE sc into early
evening. Primary concerns focus on the threat for locally
excessive rainfall within an environment featuring pwats
exceeding 2 inches and weak steering flow, especially where
coverage is maximized across SE ga. Mlcapes exceeding 2000 j kg
could translate to an isolated brief pulse severe event with
damaging wind gusts, but the probability for severe weather will
remain low.

Thunderstorms should undergo diurnal weakening dissipation later
this evening. Then, as the upper low continues to roll toward
the region, isolated scattered showers thunderstorms could
redevelop later tonight. Locally heavy rain could again occur,
especially along the coast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
Troughing will linger through the period, although it will be
strongest through Thursday. The deepest moisture is also likely
through Thursday so through this time is when we expect the highest
rain chances, especially Wednesday. Although cannot rule out isolated
severe storms, the bigger risk will be heavy rainfall flooding given
weak wind fields and very deep moisture. This wetter than normal
pattern will lead to lower than normal high temperatures and
generally above normal low temperatures. By Friday temperatures
could reach above normal in the mid 90s with heat index values
peaking in the lower 100s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Deep moisture will advect to the southeast united states ahead of a
cold front that is expected to move into the area Saturday. Pwats
between 2.25 to 2.5 inches and forcing associated with the front
support numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday
while the front slowly progresses south and eventually stalls over
or near southern areas of southeast georgia. A few thunderstorms
could become more organized than previous days given greater wind
fields aloft, but the overall threat of stronger thunderstorms could
be limited due to the timing of FROPA during earlier hours on
Saturday. At least chances of showers and thunderstorms could linger
into early next week while moisture continues to lift over or near
the stationary front.

Temps will generally be a few degrees below normal this weekend and
early next week given extensive cloud cover and precip activity. In
general, temps should peak in the mid upper 80s. Overnight lows will
range in the low mid 70s.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon at both terminals,
with most significant impacts at ksav. Then,VFR conditions are
forecast at both terminals through the 18z TAF cycle. However,
low-level moisture could support MVFR ifr ceilings later
tonight. Then, as an upper level low advances east and deep-
layered moisture spreads north across the region, showers could
redevelop late tonight, and thunderstorms could develop before
the end of the 18z TAF period. Any showers thunderstorms could
produce flight restrictions.

Extended aviation outlook: brief flight restrictions are possible
with showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday into Thursday
as weak low pressure approaches the region.VFR conditions should
prevail late Thursday and Friday before flight restrictions return
with showers and thunderstorms along near another cold front
Saturday.

Marine
Seas of 2-3 feet will persist through tonight. The sea breeze
and synoptic winds will combine to produce S SW winds 10-15
knots into early evening, then synoptic SW winds mainly 15 kt
or less will prevail for the remainder of tonight.

Thunderstorms could produce locally hazardous conditions over ga
waters this afternoon evening and anywhere across the coastal
waters later tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: a cold front looks to stall near the sc
waters through Thursday before dissipating before another cold front
moves into the area this weekend. Conditions are expected to remain
below small craft advisory levels through the period. However, a
southwest south flow could gust around 20 knots Friday night into
early Saturday until cold FROPA occurs. Seas will gradually build
from 2-3 ft up to 4 ft at times later this week as the pressure
gradient tightens a bit ahead of the front.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned spr
short term... Rjb
long term... Dpb
aviation... Rjb spr
marine... Rjb spr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi42 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 85°F1019 hPa
41033 21 mi82 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 85°F1018.1 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi105 min Calm 76°F 1019 hPa75°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi30 min NW 6 G 8.9 78°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.6)74°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1019 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi35 minN 07.00 miFair77°F73°F89%1019 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi34 minSW 310.00 miFair76°F75°F100%1019.1 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi37 minSW 310.00 miOvercast77°F73°F88%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW46SW5SW5W5SW5SW5SW8SW8W4SW4SW6CalmE4SE7S8--SW8--3CalmCalm5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
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Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:21 PM EDT     8.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:12 PM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.18.36.43.91.5-0.3-0.8-0.11.53.65.77.28.17.96.74.72.30.3-0.6-0.21.33.45.67.4

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:23 AM EDT     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:38 AM EDT     2.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:50 PM EDT     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     2.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-1.4-2.2-2.6-2.5-1.6-0.21.32.22.321.40.5-0.7-1.8-2.3-2.5-2-0.70.92.12.52.31.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.