Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:43PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:12 AM EST (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 6:57AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 704 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
AMZ300 704 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will linger over the region today. A cold front will sweep across the area Wednesday morning, followed by dry high pressure into late week. Warmer conditions arrive this weekend before another cold front pushes through Monday. Dry high pressure will then return on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 161213
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
713 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will linger over the region today. A cold front
will sweep across the area Wednesday morning, followed by dry
high pressure into late week. Warmer conditions arrive this
weekend before another cold front pushes through Monday. Dry
high pressure will then return on Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Today: high pressure will continue to break down across our
region with morning sunshine warming temps by midday to the
upper 40s north to around 50 degrees across southeast ga. An
advancing cold front will be moving in far northwest ga late and
strengthening upper jets across the region will likely result
in increasing expanding cirrostratus clouds by this afternoon,
especially late in the day. We maintained highs in the mid 50s
most areas with a few upper 50s possible around the lower
altamaha river region.

Tonight: clouds will continue to thicken and increase ahead of the
cold front and this should hold temps above freezing most areas
tonight, although we could see a few of our colder inland spots
touch freezing if clouds fail to thicken earlier than later. A
deep upper trough is forecast to dig into the lower gulf coast
region overnight, driving the cold front into the forecast area
prior to daybreak. We introduce some slight chance pops across
far inland ga and sc zones bordering the csra. Model forecast
soundings suggest light rain and sleet could mix prior to dawn
in this area as band of enhanced moisture accompanies the frontal
zone. No accumulations are expected in the overnight period.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Wednesday: a cold front will quickly shift through the area early
morning with strong cold air advection in its wake. Guidance
continues to show the bulk of precip occurring over the area well
behind the sfc cold front where strong upper lvl divergence occurs
with a passing h25 jet aloft. Timing will be key in regards to rain
and or mixed precipitation well inland, possibly in the form of
light snow flurries or sleet. The main issue will be how cold the
boundary layer becomes as moisture quickly traverses the area, then
departs to our north and offshore by early afternoon. Clouds should
keep sfc temps above freezing during morning hours for all areas,
but most guidance suggests air will be cold enough off the sfc to
produce some snow flurries or sleet over inland areas for a few
hours Wednesday morning. Locations along and west of the i-95
corridor in southeast south carolina and well inland and north of i-
16 in southeast georgia should have the greatest chance of seeing
precip in the form or snow or sleet. However, any wet snow
flakes flurries sleet will likely melt quickly once it reaches the
sfc, thus no accumulation is expected. Dry high pressure entering
from the west should put an end to most if not all precip by early
afternoon. However, if any precip lingers over the tri-county area
it will likely remain in the form of light rain. Afternoon temps
will remain well below normal behind the cold front. In general,
temps will peak in the low mid 40s around noon, then follow a
cooling trend into the evening.

The next issue will turn to wind chill temps Wednesday night. Dry
high pressure will lead to clear skies and sfc temps that cool off
rapidly. In general, temps should dip into the low mid 20s over most
areas. These temps along with a light northwest wind could produce
wind chill values near 15 degrees across the area. A wind chill
advisory could be needed for coastal counties.

Thursday and Friday: dry sfc high pressure will build over the
southeast behind a mid upper lvl trough departing off the east coast
on Thursday. The setup will support temps well below normal on
Thursday with afternoon highs peaking only in the mid 40s. Thursday
night lows will be chilly under clear skies, dipping into the mid
20s away from the coast. By Friday, noticeably warmer conditions are
expected as dry high pressure becomes centered over or near the
area. In general, temps should peak in the mid 50s Friday afternoon
under a full Sun and ridging aloft.

Long term Friday night through Monday
High pressure will prevail over the southeast united states this
weekend and early next week before a cold front arrives Monday. The
pattern will favor warming conditions each day under ridging aloft.

In general, afternoon highs will peak in the lower 60s on Saturday,
then upper 60s to around 70 degrees on Sunday. By Monday, southerly
winds will help advect deep moisture over the southeast and produce
some cloud cover ahead of the approaching front. This should limit
overall high temps to the upper 60s for most locations. Chances of
showers will arrive to most areas by Monday afternoon as the front
begins to shift over the region. Dry high pressure will then return
on Tuesday behind the departing cold front. Temps will be cooler,
but should remain at or just a few degrees above normal. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the lower 60s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr at kchs ksav through 12z Wednesday.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected at both chs
and sav terminals Wednesday afternoon through Saturday. A cold front
could bring gusty winds at both terminals Wednesday afternoon.

Marine
Winds will be light and occasionally variable close to shore
today, as high pressure weakens over the forecast area. Northeast
flow will prevail off the coast with speeds mostly less than 10
kt. There is still some lingering swell wave and seas will continue
to be a bit elevated, 2-4 ft within 20 nm and 3-5 ft well offshore.

Winds will likely back offshore late as a cold front moves in late.

Prior to sunrise, there may be the beginning of a surge off the
ga coast with speeds increasing to 15 kt. Otherwise, light winds
and seas ranging 2-3 ft near shore and 3-5 ft beyond 20 nm off
the ga coast.

Wednesday through Sunday: winds seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels Wednesday morning while high pressure persists over
coastal waters ahead of a quickly approaching cold front. Conditions
are then expected to deteriorate Wednesday afternoon evening as
strong cold air advection occurs behind the passing cold front.

Small craft advisory level conditions are likely for most waters
outside the chs harbor by Wednesday evening and should continue into
early Thursday morning. Winds seas will then diminish subside
through much of Thursday as the pressure gradient weakens in
response to high pressure building over the waters. High pressure
will dominate the weather pattern over the weekend into early next
week, supporting conditions that remain well below small craft
advisory levels.

Equipment
The kclx radar is out of service until further notice. Technicians
are troubleshooting and working on repairs.

The downtown charleston observation site (chls1 cxm) will be
unavailable until further notice.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term... Dpb
long term... Dpb
aviation...

marine... Dpb
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi43 min NNE 5.1 G 6 38°F 46°F1031.7 hPa
41033 21 mi65 min NNE 14 G 18 38°F 46°F1030 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi88 min Calm 30°F 1031 hPa24°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi73 min N 8 G 9.9 37°F 1031.7 hPa (+0.8)23°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi23 minNNE 1010.00 miClear36°F21°F56%1032.2 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi38 minNNE 57.00 miFair32°F26°F80%1031.8 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi17 minNE 310.00 miFair32°F25°F75%1032.2 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi20 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds29°F25°F85%1032.1 hPa

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12N9N12N12N8N8N10NW8NW6NW4NW3CalmN3NE5NE4NE3CalmN4N3NE4NE7--N12N10
1 day agoN12N12N10N14N14N8N8E6E6CalmCalmNE3N7NE9NE8N8NE12N11N8N11N12--NE12--
2 days agoW15
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--W14W12NW9
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NW12N7N4NW4W3W3W3CalmCalmN8N11N9NE13
G21
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G24
--N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM EST     7.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:39 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EST     6.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.2-0.30.21.53.35.16.67.67.875.33.31.30.2-00.82.345.56.56.76.14.7

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:57 AM EST     1.93 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:27 PM EST     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:01 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST     1.76 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-1.2-0.30.81.71.91.71.40.8-0.2-1.2-1.7-2-1.9-1.2-01.11.71.71.30.8-0.1-1-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.