Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday May 26, 2019 5:21 AM EDT (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:01AMMoonset 12:07PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 320 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ300 320 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure and unseasonably hot conditions will persist most of this week. Some relief from the oppressive heat is expected by next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 260801
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
401 am edt Sun may 26 2019

All time record highs for the month of may could be challenged
today as the a prolonged, early season heat wave continues...

Synopsis
High pressure and unseasonably hot conditions will persist most
of this week. Some relief from the oppressive heat is expected
by next weekend.

Near term through today
It will be another hot and oppressively hot day as the stagnant
synoptic pattern featuring anomalously strong deep-layered high
pressure will remain largely unchanged across the southeast
states. Mid-level heights will fall about 10dm across southeast
south carolina and southeast georgia as the center of the mean
anticyclone retrogrades ever so slightly to the south southwest,
but h8 temperatures are forecast to rise another 1c through the
day. This will yield a modest westerly flow which will pin the
sea breeze to the immediate coast until late in the afternoon. A
pinned sea breeze coupled with ongoing dry soil drought
conditions, warmer 1000-850 hpa temperatures and a slightly
warmer start to the day, should allow highs to warm about 1-2
degrees higher than what was observed Saturday afternoon. The
warmest conditions look to occur the metter-reidsville-savannah-
springfield-beaufort corridor where h8 temperatures are forecast
to reach 21-22c. Expect highs to range from from 100-103 inland
to the upper 80s lower 90s at the beaches. It appears the all
time record highs for may could be challenged at both kchs and
ksav. Naefs once again shows 1000 hpa temperatures peaking 2-3
standard deviations above the daily mean.

Dewpoints are expected to mix out in the lower 60s inland from
the sea breeze, then pool back into the lower-mid 70s across the
coastal counties as the sea breeze moves inland. Heat indices
are expected to peak 103-107f in a large corridor from
reidsville to charleston with 100-103f at the beaches and
locations well inland adjacent to the csra and southern
midlands. A combination of an impact-based and criteria-based
heat advisory will be issued for most zones from 11 am until 8
pm. Although the advisory looks marginal for many areas,
widespread record, early season heat and ongoing memorial day
weekend activities where may folks will be outside support the
issuance of a cautionary advisory.

Warm mid-level temperatures, a deep dry column, and broad
subsidence aloft should negate the development of any convection
today. Could see a very brief shower try and form along the sea
breeze across mid-upper charleston county where low-level
convergence will be the strongest, but any moist updraft that
can develop should quickly dissipate as extensive dry air gets
entrained. Will show a small areas of pops around 5% across
parts of mid- upper charleston county as well as eastern
berkeley county mid- late afternoon with 0% pops elsewhere.

Sunny skies this morning will give way to another shallow, high-
based cumulus field this afternoon yielding mostly sunny to
partly cloudy conditions.

Short term tonight through Wednesday
Tonight: warm and humid with lows in the lower 70s well inland
to around 80 at the beaches and downtown charleston.

Memorial day through Wednesday: the mid-levels will consist of
strong high pressure centered over the fl panhandle Monday
morning. The center of the high is forecasted to drift into the
northeastern gulf of mexico late Monday, then remain there
through Wednesday. Heights over our area will slowly drop
through Tuesday. But then they may rise a bit Wednesday as the
periphery of the high tries to build back into the southeast.

Naefs still shows 500 mb heights peaking at about 2 standard
deviations above normal Monday and above normal temperatures at
almost all levels of the atmosphere at that time. At the
surface, areas of high pressure will stretch from the western
atlantic into the southeast states through Wednesday. Each
afternoon weak thermal troughing will develop either over or
nearby our inland areas each day. But strong subsidence and a
very dry atmosphere will stop any convection from forming. The
only moisture will be fair weather clouds each afternoon. The
heat wave will continue with temperatures forecasted to reach or
exceed record values throughout the short term. For the high
temperatures, we continued the blend of models, thickness
values, and accounted for the location of the sea breeze. Monday
appears to be the hottest day in the short term because the sea
breeze may be pinned to the coast for most of the day, allowing
most temperatures away from the beaches to reach at least 100
degrees. Tuesday highs may be a degree or two cooler. What helps
is the sea breeze may make it farther inland earlier in the
day. This same trend is expected again on Wednesday. Lows each
night will only cool down into the 70s. Dew points will
initially mix out each afternoon, then increase along the
coastal corridor as the sea breeze moves inland. Heat indices
will be close to 105 degrees on Monday and Tuesday, which is
heat advisory criteria.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
The mid-level ridge will remain in place Wednesday night, then
finally flatten out Thursday night followed by zonal flow Friday and
Saturday. Surface high pressure will continue to dominate our
weather pattern through Thursday. The models still show a cold front
approaching our area Friday or Saturday. They have trended wetter,
which seems a little suspicious considering the front will be
running into our very dry airmass. We opted to only introduce slight
chance pops Friday and Saturday. But early indications are rainfall
amounts won't put much of a dent in our drought. Temperatures will
trend downwards each day. However, they are still forecasted to
remain above normal.

Aviation 05z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR.

Marine
Through tonight: south to southwest winds will prevail through
the period. Directions will locally back to the southeast along
parts of the georgia coast with the formation of the sea breeze.

Speeds will be 10-15 kt today, then rise to about 15 kt to
locally 15-20 kt tonight with a nocturnal surge. Seas will
average 1-3 ft.

Monday through Thursday: atlantic high pressure will remain the
dominant synoptic feature. Winds will mostly be from the sw,
backing a bit during the day with the sea breeze and veering a
bit at night with the the nocturnal low level jet. Away from the
gusty sea breeze, winds will mainly stay at or below 15 kt
through midweek. Seas will peak at 3-4 ft.

Climate
The ongoing heat wave will challenge or break many of these records:
earliest 100 degree temperatures:
kchs: june 2, 1985.

Ksav: may 25, 2019 and 1953.

Kcxm: june 1, 1985.

All time record highs for may:
kchs: 99 set may 21, 1938.

Ksav: 101 set may 30, 1898 and may 31, 1945.

Kcxm: 99 set may 21, 1938 and may 26, 1953.

Records for Sun 05 26...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1998
kcxm 79 1998
records for Mon 05 27...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1989
ksav 98 1989, 1962
kcxm 95 1962, 1926
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 1991
ksav 77 1878
kcxm 78 1991
records for Tue 05 28...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1967, 1964
ksav 96 1964, 1898
kcxm 93 2000
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2000
ksav 76 1885
kcxm 80 2000
records for Wed 05 29...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 1945
ksav 98 1945, 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2018
ksav 75 1885
kcxm 77 1998
records for Thu 05 30...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 2004
ksav 101 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1982
ksav 75 1924
kcxm 78 1998
records for Fri 05 31...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 77 2004
ksav 75 2004
records for Sat 06 01...

station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 77 1974
ksav 76 1880

Equipment
The downtown charleston (kcxm) observation will be unavailable
until further notice. The cause of the outage is unknown.

Technicians will address the outage on Tuesday.

Wfo charleston will only conduct upper-air soundings at 12z until
further notice due to a shortage of helium.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for gaz099>101-114>119-137-138-140.

Sc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for scz042>045-047>052.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi52 min WSW 4.1 G 6
41033 21 mi134 min WSW 9.7 G 12 81°F 80°F1018.7 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi97 min Calm 77°F 1019 hPa74°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi82 min SW 8 G 8.9 80°F 1019.3 hPa (-0.9)75°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi27 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F69°F74%1019.6 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi27 minSW 57.00 miFair79°F69°F74%1019 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi29 minSW 410.00 miFair76°F66°F74%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
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Sun -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:26 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 01:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:46 PM EDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:39 PM EDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.35.46.36.86.75.94.63.11.811.11.83.14.45.56.26.35.94.93.62.41.61.52

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Sun -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 01:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:27 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.310.5-0.4-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.4-0.80.21.21.61.61.20.7-0.1-0.9-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.