Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Picture Rocks, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:26PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 8:29 PM MST (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:03PMMoonset 10:37PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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location: 32.3, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 132102
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
issued by national weather service phoenix az
200 pm mst Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Periodically gusty winds will continue through Wednesday coincident
with unseasonably cool daytime temperatures. Warming high pressure
will gradually spread into the region during the latter half of the
week resulting in daytime temperatures returning to near normal.

Discussion
With high amplitude ridging sharpening along the west coast of north
america, strong sfc pressure rises over the great basin have forced
the coldest airmass of the season to spill into SE arizona. The
magnitude and depth of the cold air have been most pronounced as
despite 500mb heights near the seasonal average, 850mb temperatures
were sampled on the 12z ktwc sounding below the lowest 5th
percentile (and very near daily records). The enhanced low level
pressure gradient and baroclinicity have supported a persistent llj
within the 925-850mb layer centered directly over the forecast area
resulting in ridge top winds gusting 40-50 mph and valley gusts near
35 mph. With only modest weakening of this gradient and maintenance
of the cold airmass through Wednesday, near persistence conditions
will exist yielding a wide range of mid 20 to lower 40 overnight
lows in the main population centers.

Through the latter half of the week, the upstream ridge amplitude
will dampen with marginally higher 576-579dm 500mb heights spreading
into SE arizona. More importantly, the loss of the more prominent e
to NE winds will allow some of the colder boundary layer to be
scoured from the region. While typically slower to occur this time
of year with reduced mixing depths, under good insolation afternoon
temperatures should rebound close to the seasonal average by the end
of the week. Given the very dry airmass and calmer winds, morning
lows may still fall cooler than average - especially for the more
sheltered valley locations. Though notable operational and ensemble
model spread exists beyond the weekend, there are good signals
suggesting a hemispheric pattern change and better chances for
pacific storm systems moving into the SW CONUS next week.

Aviation Valid through 15 00z.

Gusty easterly winds will affect all TAF sites this afternoon in
response to a strong pressure gradient behind a backdoor front.

Winds at ktus will remain sustained at 20-25 knots with gusts of
30-35 knots, whereas sustained winds and gusts will be about 5-10
knots weaker at kols and kdug. Wind gusts should fall below 15-20
knots around 00-01z at all sites, but this will be brief at ktus
as enhanced downsloping effects will allow for gusts up to 25
knots to return after 04z and persist into tomorrow morning. Winds
will finally weaken below 10 knots at ktus late tomorrow
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather
Periodically gusty east winds will persist on Wednesday with speeds
slightly lower than Tuesday, but still some areas in excess of 25
mph - particularly over ridge tops and foothills. While the overall
fire danger will remain low and temperatures will stay much cooler
than normal, the wind and very low rh conditions could result in
challenges with any grass brush fires during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will moderate into the weekend with humidity levels
increasing somewhat, yet remaining quite low. The next chance of
wetting rains should not arrive in any district until at least the
middle of next week.

Twc watches warnings advisories
None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ11 mi45 minE 17 G 2110.00 miFair54°F3°F13%1027.8 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi37 minESE 23 G 3510.00 miFair and Windy54°F1°F11%1026.9 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ19 mi92 minE 610.00 miFair49°F3°F15%1027.3 hPa

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E8E10E11E11E11E8E10
G21
E9E8E6SE14
G24
SE18
G33
SE25
G34
SE22
G32
SE20
G33
SE20
G28
E8
G18
NE7
G16
E8NE9SE3SE17
G27
SE23
G35
1 day agoSW3NW3S3SW4CalmCalmCalmSE6S5CalmS3SE4CalmCalm4Calm33NW12
G20
NW8NE9
G15
N6
G16
N3E3
2 days agoS6S4CalmS4SE5S6SE7CalmSE9SE8SE5S4S4Calm4W7NW8
G16
W8
G18
W12W13
G22
NW8N9N7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.