Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Picture Rocks, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 7:37PM Saturday June 23, 2018 10:25 PM MST (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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location: 32.3, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 240345
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
845 pm mst Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis Dry conditions will continue through Thursday. High
temperatures will rebound to several degrees above normal around
midweek as high pressure aloft builds across the area. Thereafter,
enough moisture Friday and Saturday for a slight chance of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms mainly east to south of tucson.

Discussion Ir satellite imagery and surface observations depicted
clear skies across southeast arizona at this time. A few high-based
and vertically-challenged cumuloform clouds developed mostly south
of tucson earlier this afternoon. Those clouds have since
dissipated.

Dew points at lower elevations valid 8 pm mst ranged from the lower
30s in the upper gila river valley (including safford) to the lower
50s near the international border adjacent santa cruz county. These
temps were generally 15-30 degrees higher versus this time Friday
evening depending upon location. 24 00z ktwc sounding total precip
water value of 0.71 inch increased about 0.45 inch versus 24 hours
ago. Sounding comparisons depicted the greatest moisture increase in
the surface-700 mb layer. Surface temps at lower elevations valid
8 pm mst ranged from the mid 80s-mid 90s, and these temps were nearly
unchanged to about 5 degs cooler versus 24 hours ago.

The 24 00z nam12 and associated met guidance as well as the 23 18z
gfs mav guidance dew points are likely a few to several degs too low
for the rest of tonight and into early Sunday morning. However, this
shallow moisture will also likely not translate into any cloud
formation of significance. Thus, clear skies will prevail the rest
of tonight as winds decrease to mostly less than 10 mph by around
midnight or so. However, some elevated northwest winds may continue
late tonight across the upper gila river valley including safford.

As was the case this afternoon, a few high-based cumuloform clouds
may develop Sunday afternoon before dissipating Sunday evening.

Forecast high temps Sunday will generally be a few degs cooler
versus this afternoon, but those temps will still be quite close to
seasonal normals. Somewhat less wind will also occur Sunday although
wind speeds northeast of tucson and especially near safford will
likely be similar to wind speeds this afternoon.

There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.

Aviation Valid through 25 06z.

Clear skies into Sunday morning, then a few clouds at 10k-15k ft agl
may develop again Sunday afternoon (especially south of ktus) before
dissipating Sunday evening. Surface wind mainly wly and diminishing
to less than 10 kts most sections by 24 06z. Surface wind Sunday
afternoon and evening wly nwly 8-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts. The
strongest speeds should occur northeast of ktus and especially in
vicinity of ksad. Surface wind diminishing to less than 10 kts near
end of valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for taf
amendments.

Fire weather Dry conditions will prevail through Thursday. There
is a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday
into Saturday mainly east to south of tucson. Expect somewhat less
wind Sunday, then 20-foot winds mainly be less than 15 mph Monday
through Friday. However, afternoon gusts will occur due to strong
daytime heating.

Prev discussion 203 pm mst A nice low level surge of moisture
pushed the dewpoints into the 45-55 degree range from roughly i-10
south this morning with lower values to the north. The highest
dewpoint values have dropped back a bit, but overall the area
remains in the 40s to lower 50s. Unfortunately this moisture can't
be tapped very well as the mid-levels of the atmosphere are too warm
to allow for significant convection to develop. I would expect these
dewpoints to rise a bit again tonight after the solar induced mixing
ends.

That push of moisture occurred in advance of an upper level trough
that is passing by well to the north of the state with the main
influence of that system being a bit of enhanced breeziness into
this evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The other
notable influence will be on our high temperatures which will back
off a few degrees through Monday from what we had Thursday and
Friday.

Next week, upper level high pressure reestablishes itself over the
region with hot and somewhat stagnant, light wind conditions
returning to the area. Pretty much what you would expect for late
june.

The longer range outlook continues to lean toward the development of
se monsoonal type flow next weekend resulting in increasing moisture
along with with the mid-levels of the atmosphere cooling enough to
be more supportive of convection. Based on these trends I started
raising pops a bit to introduce a slight chance of thunderstorms to
the forecast mainly east of tucson from Friday onward. Even with
that I am still a bit below climatology pop wise. If that idea is
maintained in the model world, pops will likely rise for next
weekend over the next few days.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Francis
previous discussion... Cerniglia
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ11 mi2.7 hrsSW 810.00 miFair95°F39°F14%1009.5 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi32 minW 156.00 miFair with Haze90°F53°F28%1005.7 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ19 mi87 minWSW 810.00 miFair90°F48°F24%1005.5 hPa

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W4SE6SE6S5SE6CalmS5S17
G22
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G15
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NW9S10
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SW8--W9SW5SW8W15
1 day agoW6W5SW6SW7SE4SE5SE7SE4SE8S3W34CalmE5W4N7W12
G19
NW9
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NW10
G17
NW9
G17
W7N5CalmW6
2 days agoW8--E3SE3S4SE5SE5E4S3S3CalmCalmCalmN4Calm3NW8
G14
W9N8
G16
NW10
G18
NW9N7N7W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.