Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:24PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:59 AM EST (08:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:37PMMoonset 11:24PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 303 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
.gale warning in effect from 10 am est this morning through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft this afternoon. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. Showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
AMZ300 303 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will affect the area into Thursday with cool and dry high pressure then returning through this weekend. A cold front could move through early next week with a few showers followed by cool and dry high pressure once again into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal town, SC
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location: 32.33, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 140550
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1250 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week
with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A
mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
On the midnight update: minor touch-up to ongoing but
diminishing light rains and short term pops, otherwise our
forecast is on track overnight.

The cold front over the atlantic will continue to pull away
during the overnight. Despite the passage, with considerable
moisture in place and over-running moving atop the the cooler
surface air mass behind the front, ana-type light rains will
continue to impact the area. Pop has been lowered to no more
than 20-40%, since some drier air is working its way in between
about 1500 and 4000 ft above the sharp inversion. Widespread low
stratus will equate to some reduction in surface visibilities.

But with geostrophic winds increasing to as high as 20-30 kt,
this is far too much to indicate any fog in the forecast. There
is only weak cool advection, and with good mixing and overcast
skies, temps should only fall a couple degrees more at many
locations.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday
Unsettled weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday and Thursday: the mid-levels will consist of a trough over
the ms valley Wednesday morning, with a strong low over the arklatex
region. The low will move over the tn valley by Thursday morning,
then towards the mid-atlantic states Thursday night. Overall,
southwest flow will prevail over our area. Most of the energy
associated with the trough is expected to pass just to our
northwest. Though, some jet stream energy may move overhead Thursday
night. At the surface, a front will be offshore Wednesday morning.

Low pressure is expected to develop over fl Wednesday evening, then
move to the northeast. The low is expected to strengthen as it
parallels our coastline Wednesday night, moving to our northeast on
Thursday. High pressure is expected to build from the northern gulf
of mexico Thursday night. Plenty of moisture is in place across the
region. Pwats may approach 1.8" Wednesday night, which is 2 standard
deviations above normal per naefs. With great model agreement, with
have pops ramping up during the day Wednesday, becoming categorical
Wednesday night. Pops will increase from southwest to northeast
Thursday. Dry conditions are expected Thursday night. Several inches
of rain are expected during this time period. Flash flooding isn't
expected. However, there could be some flooding of low-lying or
poorly drained areas during the heaviest rainfall. There is very
little instability in place, so the risk of thunderstorms is very
low. Temperatures will be well below normal during this time period.

Friday: high pressure will build across the northern gulf of mexico,
with its eastern periphery extending into our area.

Strong subsidence will lead to dry conditions and mostly sunny
skies. Additionally, cold air advection within northwest surface
winds will continue the trend of below normal temperatures.

Highs may be about 10 degrees below normal.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Dry weather will prevail through early next week as cooler high
pressure moves into the area. Another reinforcing mostly dry cold
front could move through Sunday night. Temperatures should be near
to below normal.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Ifr CIGS continue to look prevalent throughout the forecast
period ending at 06z Thursday. Forecast soundings show a
persistent inversion at or slightly above 1 kft and while low
clouds may scattered out at a few locations, we think the
strong moisture advection pattern today into tonight should lock
in the low CIGS as rains increase later today and especially
this evening. Surface winds will increase with a potential for
low level wind shear tonight which later cycles will investigate
once trends become more certain with the track of the approaching
surface low late in the 06z TAF cycle.

Extended aviation outlook: a storm system will bring flight
restrictions Thursday morning. Conditions will improve during
the day on Thursday as the system moves away.VFR is expected
Friday through Sunday.

Marine
Overnight: the cold front has shifted east and southeast of the
local waters, and the pressure gradient will steadily tighten
between the departing front and continental high pressure
centered from the upper midwest to texas. We have maintained the
small craft advisory for amz350 and amz374 for n-ne winds as
high as 25 kt, but conditions will hold just below advisory
levels elsewhere in the atlantic and in charleston harbor. Seas
will build as high as 4 or 5 ft within 20 nm and up to 6 ft on
the outer georgia waters.

Wednesday through Sunday: the surface pressure gradient will
become enhanced Wednesday, especially as a strengthening low
moves from southwest to northeast across the coastal waters
Wednesday night. Gale force gusts are expected, so we issued
gale warnings for all of the coastal waters Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Steep, wind-driven seas will build in response
to these winds, with seas peaking at or above 10 ft at 10 nm and
beyond. Winds will quickly ease Thursday as the low moves away.

Though, elevated seas could persist across the offshore ga
waters into Friday.

High surf: gale conditions will cause seas to build Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Five foot breakers are expected in the surf zone,
especially along northeast facing beaches. A high surf advisory is
in effect.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... High surf advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am est
Thursday for gaz117-119-139-141.

Sc... High surf advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am est
Thursday for scz051.

High surf advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 am est Thursday
for scz048>050.

Marine... Gale warning from noon today to 1 am est Thursday for amz352-
354-374.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est this morning for amz350.

Gale warning from 9 am this morning to 3 am est Thursday for
amz350.

Small craft advisory until noon est today for amz374.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 am est
Thursday for amz330.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41033 5 mi51 min Calm G 0
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 16 mi74 min N 1.9 57°F 1021 hPa57°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 31 mi47 min N 8 G 8.9 60°F 67°F1020.9 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 39 mi59 min NNE 13 G 15 58°F 1021.3 hPa (+0.3)57°F
CHTS1 43 mi41 min N 13 G 15 59°F 66°F1021.1 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC10 mi84 minNNE 117.00 miOvercast57°F55°F94%1020.7 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC14 mi64 minN 1010.00 miOvercast59°F57°F94%1021 hPa

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS8S10S8S7SW5NE9NE5NW8N11N8N7NW6W6N9N8N85N8
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1 day agoN9N10
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N11NE12NE11NE11NE9NE7N5NE10NE7NE7NE5NE5NW3CalmCalmSE9
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2 days agoN14N16N8N10N12N12NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Fripps Inlet, Hunting Island Bridge, St. Helena Sound, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Station Creek, County Landing, South Carolina
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Station Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM EST     6.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:52 AM EST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:10 PM EST     6.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:44 PM EST     1.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:24 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.16.25.54.22.81.81.41.82.73.74.85.76.56.86.55.54.12.71.71.51.92.73.74.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.