Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:21PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 8:12 AM EST (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 542 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ300 542 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will move through late today, followed by high pressure that will prevail into late week. An area of low pressure will move through the region this weekend, resulting in unsettled weather.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, SC
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location: 32.33, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 201108
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
608 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move through late today, followed by high
pressure that will prevail into late week. An area of low
pressure will move through the region this weekend, resulting
in unsettled weather.

Near term through tonight
While we still not convinced that anything measurable will
happen with the few returns near and along the NW tier, after
coordination with WFO cae we will include a small chance of
light showers this morning from NW berkeley to jenkins and
screven. There are also a few other returns near the coast and
approaching the altamaha river that are moving in from the
west-southwest; an indication of the strength of the upper jet.

But no more than very light rain or sprinkles will occur.

For the rest of today: a broad mid and upper level trough will
cover much of the eastern united states to the south of a large
cyclone in hudson bay, canada. An upstream cold front which is
near the appalachians at the start of the day will approach this
afternoon and pass into the atlantic this evening. The bulk of
the moisture is situated between h8 and h5, and this might be
enough to produce a few very light showers or sprinkles,
especially along the NW tier. However, convergence is lacking
with the w-nw synoptic flow and any larger scale forcing for
ascent with the right entrance region of the sub- tropical jet
is offshore by the time the front gets closer. Thus we have
maintained pop no higher than 14%, and this does not require
mentioning in the forecast. Varying amounts of mid and high
level cloudiness will encompass the entire area and cuts down on
insolation. That said, there is enough warming in advance of
the cold front to allow for MAX temps to reach the upper 60s and
lower 70s, warmest over the eastern third of the forecast
district.

Tonight: as the front moves into the atlantic, cooler air will
begin to advance into the area, as skies clear and winds veer
around to the NW and n. However, a post-frontal trough will
delay the colder air until after midnight, when that trough
pulls south of the area, and high pressure builds in from the
west and northwest. Lows will be a solid 8-12f colder than they
were this morning.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Dry high pressure will dominate local conditions through Thursday.

Though a mid upper level shortwave trough likely crossing over the
forecast area Thursday will lead to increased cloud cover, prognosed
moisture levels are likely too low for measurable precipitation to
occur. By late Friday morning, high pressure will become
increasingly wedge-like as weak coastal troughing develops and low
pressure approaches the region from the west southwest. Flow will
turn more onshore through Friday, bringing additional moisture into
the area ahead of the approaching low. While some precipitation over
land zones will be possible during the day Friday, the latest model
guidance shows increased alignment with shortwave ridging overhead.

The bulk of activity should occur over marine zones, dependent on
the intensity and location of the coastal trough.

Long term Friday night through Monday
Model agreement over the last several runs has improved and areas of
precipitation will begin to overspread the forecast area from the
south east Friday night into Saturday as low pressure approaches.

While a fair bit of uncertainty continues, some improvement in
conditions is looking possible Sunday as the leading low pulls away
from the area while a stronger trough upstream begins to dig towards
the southeast, inducing shortwave ridging over the region.

This additional, stronger low pressure system looks to cross nearby
Monday into Tuesday while parent troughing possibly becomes more
negatively tilted. While the best forcing looks to remain inland of
the forecast area, unsettled conditions could continue into early
next week.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr ceilings will prevail through the day in advance of a cold
front that passes through late in the day. There could be a few
very light showers at or near the terminals into the afternoon,
but no impacts will occur.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
both terminals into late week. Flight restrictions will be possible
this weekend as low pressure moves nearby.

Marine
For today and tonight: a cold front will draw nearer to the
local waters this afternoon, steadily moving through this
evening, then gives way to continental high pressure centered
near the ARKLATEX region. Westerly winds will be as high as
10-15 kt today, shifting to the NW at similar speeds early
tonight, then with increasing cold advection overnight we expect
n or n-ne winds as high as 13-18 kt and gusty. Seas will
average 2-4 ft through the entire period.

Wednesday through Sunday: behind a departing cold front, winds
will veer north to northeast by Wednesday afternoon, generally
averaging 10-15 knots with seas ranging 2 to 4 feet. A
tightening surface pressure gradient beginning Thursday will
lead to building winds and seas. Small craft advisories will
likely be needed beginning Thursday afternoon and then
continuing into at least the weekend as low pressure affects the
southeast.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong and gusty northeast winds could combine with astronomical
influences to produce elevated tides late this week into the
weekend. Primarily along the south carolina coast, the Friday
morning high tide looks most susceptible to reaching shallow to
moderate coastal flooding criteria, as surface winds will then veer
southwest into Saturday, providing some mitigation for subsequent
tides.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term... Jmc
aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41033 5 mi64 min Calm G 0
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 16 mi87 min Calm 56°F 1018 hPa56°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 31 mi42 min WNW 5.1 G 6 60°F 62°F1019 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 39 mi72 min W 4.1 G 6 58°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.7)54°F
CHTS1 43 mi42 min W 6 G 8.9 59°F 63°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC10 mi37 minN 07.00 miOvercast57°F51°F82%1018.6 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC14 mi22 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast57°F53°F88%1019.3 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC17 mi76 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5CalmNE3W6NW3NW5NW5W6CalmCalmS4SW3CalmCalmSW3W4W6W3CalmW3W4SW4CalmW4
1 day agoNE9NE7N6NE6NE3CalmS4CalmCalmNE3NE3N3CalmNE3NE4CalmN4CalmNW3CalmNW3NW7NW6NW3
2 days agoN3NE4NE5SE3SE7S5NE4NE6E4E3CalmE3NE5NE7NE6NE5NE5NE5N5NE6NE7NE9NE8NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Fripp Inlet Bridge, South Carolina
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Fripp Inlet Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:02 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:17 AM EST     6.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:30 AM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:43 PM EST     6.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:48 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.823.54.96.16.66.55.64.431.60.80.81.52.84.25.46.26.35.74.63.11.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Capers Island, Trenchards Inlet, South Carolina
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Capers Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:02 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:21 AM EST     6.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:28 AM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:47 PM EST     6.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:46 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.923.65.16.36.96.85.94.63.11.70.80.81.62.94.35.66.46.664.83.31.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.