Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rillito, AZ
March 29, 2024 8:33 AM MST (15:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 6:44 PM Moonrise 11:13 PM Moonset 8:29 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KTWC 290944 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 244 AM MST Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm temperatures will continue into Saturday before a weather system brings colder temperatures and widespread precipitation chances Sunday into early next week. Rain and accumulating mountain snow is likely. Winds will increase ahead of this system on Friday, with windy conditions lasting through the weekend especially Saturday.
DISCUSSION
High clouds are streaming in from the southwest as a trough moves into the western United States. The center of this low is situated off the coast of northern California and will be the main weather driver over the next several days. Over the next couple days its main impact will be strong gusty winds as it moves down the west coast increasing the pressure gradient for the desert Southwest. Because of this a Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire CWA Saturday. It will be breezy to windy area wide, but the strongest winds will be in Santa Cruz and Pima Counties. Blowing dust will likely be an issue downwind of the Wilcox Playa and in portions of Pima and Pinal Counties.
Temperatures today and Saturday will be at or a couple degrees above normal.
The upper level low moves starts to move on shore Saturday evening into Saturday night accompanied by a fairly well defined cold front. This front will serve as the focus for the beginning of precipitation. Models bring the front into western Pima County early Sunday morning, then Tucson late to mid morning, and the AZ/NM border by late afternoon/early evening. Still some small differences in timing between models, but that's to be expected 48-60 hours out. Winds will again be gusty out ahead of the front with the strongest winds Sunday expected to be in Cochise County.
Rain intensity will be moderate along the front with widespread showers likely behind the front. Snow levels will initially be around 7000 feet dropping to 6000-6500 feet Sunday night into Monday morning. Precipitation chances continue into Monday as a shortwave rotates around the main trough providing support for continued rain and possibly isolated thunderstorms as well.
Current forecast rain totals Sunday into Monday range from 0.3"-1.3" in the valleys with Pima, Santa Cruz, and Pinal Counties on the middle to higher end of that range. Elsewhere in Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee Counties rain totals looks to be under 0.5".
NBM 48 hour QPF probabilities for 0.5" or greater range from 40-80 percent for the western half of the CWA with the highest probabilities in Pinal County and the mountains. Snow totals above 7000 feet for the Sunday-Monday time frame range from 6-12 inches with locally higher amounts at the peaks.
Temperatures will also drop significantly with the passage of this system with highs running 20 degrees below normal Sunday and Monday. Freezing temperatures will be possible Tuesday morning east of Tucson.
Tuesday lingering showers will be possible mainly from Tucson eastward thanks to residual moisture. The trough begins to split Tuesday with a shortwave pinching off from the main flow and moving into northern Mexico and the rest of the trough moving eastward. Ensembles show ridging to our north through the middle of the week which will lead to a gradual warmup through Thursday.
Then ensembles show another deep low moving into the western U.S.
during the last half of the work week. So looks like Arizona is not quite done with unsettled weather.
AVIATION
Valid through 30/12Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the period with the exception of this afternoon when there will be a brief break in the high clouds. SFC winds today increasing after 29/17Z becoming SWLY 12-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts through 30/03Z. Strongest winds will be at KOLS and KDUG terminals. Thereafter through the end of the TAF period winds will be less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Warm through Saturday as an upper level ridge moves across the area.
Winds will increase on Friday to around 15 to 20 mph ahead of an approaching storm system, which may overlap relative humidities of 10 to 15 percent in the lower elevations. Winds should become a bit stronger on Saturday with speeds 20 to 25 mph and locally 30 mph in some spots, though moisture will be on the rise. Good chances for widespread precipitation arrive with a cold front by early Sunday and continuing through Monday, with possible lingering showers Tuesday.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501>515.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 244 AM MST Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm temperatures will continue into Saturday before a weather system brings colder temperatures and widespread precipitation chances Sunday into early next week. Rain and accumulating mountain snow is likely. Winds will increase ahead of this system on Friday, with windy conditions lasting through the weekend especially Saturday.
DISCUSSION
High clouds are streaming in from the southwest as a trough moves into the western United States. The center of this low is situated off the coast of northern California and will be the main weather driver over the next several days. Over the next couple days its main impact will be strong gusty winds as it moves down the west coast increasing the pressure gradient for the desert Southwest. Because of this a Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire CWA Saturday. It will be breezy to windy area wide, but the strongest winds will be in Santa Cruz and Pima Counties. Blowing dust will likely be an issue downwind of the Wilcox Playa and in portions of Pima and Pinal Counties.
Temperatures today and Saturday will be at or a couple degrees above normal.
The upper level low moves starts to move on shore Saturday evening into Saturday night accompanied by a fairly well defined cold front. This front will serve as the focus for the beginning of precipitation. Models bring the front into western Pima County early Sunday morning, then Tucson late to mid morning, and the AZ/NM border by late afternoon/early evening. Still some small differences in timing between models, but that's to be expected 48-60 hours out. Winds will again be gusty out ahead of the front with the strongest winds Sunday expected to be in Cochise County.
Rain intensity will be moderate along the front with widespread showers likely behind the front. Snow levels will initially be around 7000 feet dropping to 6000-6500 feet Sunday night into Monday morning. Precipitation chances continue into Monday as a shortwave rotates around the main trough providing support for continued rain and possibly isolated thunderstorms as well.
Current forecast rain totals Sunday into Monday range from 0.3"-1.3" in the valleys with Pima, Santa Cruz, and Pinal Counties on the middle to higher end of that range. Elsewhere in Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee Counties rain totals looks to be under 0.5".
NBM 48 hour QPF probabilities for 0.5" or greater range from 40-80 percent for the western half of the CWA with the highest probabilities in Pinal County and the mountains. Snow totals above 7000 feet for the Sunday-Monday time frame range from 6-12 inches with locally higher amounts at the peaks.
Temperatures will also drop significantly with the passage of this system with highs running 20 degrees below normal Sunday and Monday. Freezing temperatures will be possible Tuesday morning east of Tucson.
Tuesday lingering showers will be possible mainly from Tucson eastward thanks to residual moisture. The trough begins to split Tuesday with a shortwave pinching off from the main flow and moving into northern Mexico and the rest of the trough moving eastward. Ensembles show ridging to our north through the middle of the week which will lead to a gradual warmup through Thursday.
Then ensembles show another deep low moving into the western U.S.
during the last half of the work week. So looks like Arizona is not quite done with unsettled weather.
AVIATION
Valid through 30/12Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the period with the exception of this afternoon when there will be a brief break in the high clouds. SFC winds today increasing after 29/17Z becoming SWLY 12-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts through 30/03Z. Strongest winds will be at KOLS and KDUG terminals. Thereafter through the end of the TAF period winds will be less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Warm through Saturday as an upper level ridge moves across the area.
Winds will increase on Friday to around 15 to 20 mph ahead of an approaching storm system, which may overlap relative humidities of 10 to 15 percent in the lower elevations. Winds should become a bit stronger on Saturday with speeds 20 to 25 mph and locally 30 mph in some spots, though moisture will be on the rise. Good chances for widespread precipitation arrive with a cold front by early Sunday and continuing through Monday, with possible lingering showers Tuesday.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501>515.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KAVQ MARANA RGNL,AZ | 6 sm | 18 min | E 06 | 10 sm | -- | 63°F | 36°F | 36% | 29.91 | |
KRYN RYAN FIELD,AZ | 14 sm | 43 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 39°F | 54% | 29.91 | |
KMZJ PINAL AIRPARK,AZ | 15 sm | 18 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 41°F | 48% | 29.93 | |
KDMA DAVIS MONTHAN AFB,AZ | 19 sm | 38 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 34°F | 36% | 29.91 | |
KTUS TUCSON INTL,AZ | 19 sm | 40 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 36°F | 39% | 29.94 |
Tucson, AZ,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE