Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frierson, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:38PM Monday January 21, 2019 11:51 PM CST (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:26PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frierson, LA
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location: 32.35, -93.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 220536
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
1136 pm cst Mon jan 21 2019

Aviation
LowVFR stratocu decks advancing nwd across the entire region.

Se-s winds around 10 kts over much of NRN la and SW ar. However,
portions of NE tx including ktyr and kggg will see 15g25kt
overnight and continuing, or even increasing, durg the day tue.

Cigs have lowered to low MVFR at klfk, and may begin to lower to
MVFR by 22 09z at ktyr, kggg, kshv, and ktxk terminas. These
clouds may rise again to lowVFR by midday, but will once again
lower to MVFR as scattered showers quickly become widespread in
coverage with the approach of the cold front. FROPA to occur at
ktyr, kggg, ktxk, and possibly kshv before 23 06z. CIGS may fall
to ifr with fropa, and vsby may fall with a drizzly rain despite
the winds, which will maintain strength as they shift from south
to west, then nw, before the end of the 22 06z fcst cycle across
nw half of cwa. 07 .

Prev discussion issued 909 pm cst Mon jan 21 2019
update...

low clouds which moved into area by early evening have begun to
shift north of i-20 in stg s-se low lvl flow. Sfc winds expected
to remain over 10 mph across most of the area with continued
cloudy skies as upper lvl clouds also present. Current temps
mainly in the mid to upper 40s, and lower 50s in east tx lakes,
will likely remain nearly steady and with fcst lows mainly ranging
thru the 40s, except for lower 50s east tx. Patchy lgt rain
remains possible late tonight. No update needed attm. 07 .

Prev discussion... Issued 410 pm cst Mon jan 21 2019
short term... Tonight through Wednesday
the afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates an extensive cu
field continues to advect N into deep E tx wcntrl la attm, along
the nose of an intensifying srly llj, along the ERN periphery of
the tighter pressure gradient noted on the sfc analysis over much
of the SRN plains. The is the result of leeside sfc cyclogenesis
that continues to amplify over ERN co, ahead of a stout upper
trough exiting the great basin and approaching the four corners
region. This sfc low will eject slowly E into SW ks late tonight,
but help to amplify the srly LLJ to 40-50kts over the SRN plains,
allowing for the existing CU field over deep E and SE tx SW and
wcntrl la to quickly expand N across the remainder of the region
tonight. Even with the daytime mixing, wind speeds have remained
marginal mostly below lake wind advisory criteria across much of e
tx SE ok SW ar NW la this afternoon, thus have cancelled the
advisory this afternoon as criteria will remain marginal over the
wrn sections of E tx SE ok even with the loss of mixing tonight.

The moisture profile will remain quite shallow through much of the
overnight hours, but the short term progs continue to hint at
weak shallow isentropic forcing along the 285-290k sfcs such that
isolated areas of -ra -dz will be possible over much of the area
late (prior to daybreak Tuesday). Thus have continued mention of
slight chance pops over much of the area, with a small area of low
chance pops over SE ok adjacent sections of SW ar along the nose
of the h925-850 llj, where moisture levels should deepen quicker
there. Min temps tonight will likely occur this evening, either
holding steady or slowly warming overnight in response to the
ongoing low level moisture warm advection.

The aforementioned upper trough remains progged to enter the
rockies late tonight, with a portion of this trough trying to
close up and eject NE into the midwest Tuesday, with the trailing
trough axis SW across the ok tx panhandles into ERN nm. This
trough will remain positively tilted as it slowly enters the srn
plains Tuesday night, but will begin tapping elevated pacific
moisture Tuesday afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front as
it quickly progresses E across much of ok cntrl tx. Thus, large
scale forcing will increase during the afternoon from ncntrl tx ne
into extreme NE tx ERN ok WRN ar well ahead of the trough, but in
vc of the approaching front. Have trended with mid to high chance
pops Tuesday morning along N of the i-35 corridor, before ramping
pops up to categorical for these areas, with likely high chance
pops farther E across lower E tx N la scntrl ar. Did also ramp
pops up to high end categorical Tuesday night from deep E tx n
la SW ar as the rains overspread the area along just ahead of the
frontal zone. The front remains progged to exit the area by
daybreak Wednesday, but the rains will becoming more post-frontal
Wednesday morning as the trough axis slowly drifts E into cntrl
ok tx. The post-frontal air mass will initially be shallow, but
the short term progs are in agreement with the deep lyr moisture
scouring E through the area just ahead of the critical thresholds
for any wintry mix over portions of E tx NW la SW ar SE ok
Wednesday morning. Thus, have not included any wintry mix in the
forecast attm. However, temps will quickly fall with the fropa
Wednesday morning, with the post-frontal rains gradually
diminishing from NW to SE during the day.

15
long term... Wednesday night through Sunday night
the base of the upper trof to be exiting the region at the start of
the pd Wednesday evening, with all areas precip-free. High pressure
at the sfc to quickly build in behind the trof. Secondary
disturbance diving down the plains will keep our region under a
broad-scale trof, which will bring another reinforcing shot of cold,
dry air Friday.

Yet another shortwave will dive sewd into central and E tx late
Friday, and model solutions differ quite a bit with respect to
moisture return ahead with this disturbance. The euro is very
aggressive developing a sfc trof just off of the tx gulf coast,
which would feed abundant moisture back into the cold air already in
place across our region. This solution would likely result in at
least a mix of rain snow for much of Saturday. The GFS is much
drier, as no sfc trof develops, and only very light QPF results,
mainly Saturday night. Have stayed very conservative with respect to
pops and have opted to keep all precip in liquid form for now, and
will continue to monitor trends in the models. Sunday looks to be
dry, as nwly flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc dominate the
end of the fcst pd. 12

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 48 64 36 43 20 70 100 50
mlu 44 64 43 43 10 50 100 90
deq 41 58 31 42 30 80 60 10
txk 45 60 33 43 20 80 90 30
eld 41 60 36 42 20 70 100 60
tyr 52 64 33 45 20 80 60 20
ggg 50 64 34 44 20 80 100 30
lfk 52 67 37 47 20 50 100 50

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA11 mi55 minSSE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast50°F41°F72%1018.6 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi55 minSSE 1310.00 miOvercast52°F44°F75%1018 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi58 minSSE 1210.00 miOvercast52°F42°F69%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from BAD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmCalmSE3SE4SE5SE5SE3SE7--SE11S12SE11SE14S15SE18SE13SE11
G19
SE9SE10SE10SE15
G21
SE13S14
G20
1 day agoN15N14
G19
N13N14
G21
N10N11N8N5CalmNW6NW5N6CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS9S11SW13
G19
W11S3S4SW8
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G25
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G32
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G26
NW16NW20
G30
NW18NW18
G25
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G24
NW23
G26
NW22
G26
N14
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.