Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 3:10 PM   Moonset 3:40 AM

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FXUS64 KSHV 190601 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 101 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has entered Nrn and Wrn McCurtain County OK, tailing SW to near PRX, TRL, and ACT as of 0230Z. The widely scattered convection that had been present along the bndry has since dissipated since the setting sun, likely given the lack of large scale ascent aloft to help keep this convection going. Very little change is expected to the synoptic pattern overnight, with some isolated to widely scattered convection possible along the frontal zone overnight as it seeps SE into NE TX/SW AR and eventually, extreme NW LA by daybreak Friday. Despite the presence of very strong instability remaining ahead of the front (SBCapes of 3000-3500 J/Kg) and adequate deep lyr shear, not expected deep convection to develop given the lack of forcing aloft, and thus have cancelled SVR Watch #126 for McCurtain County OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR.

The frontal sfc is expected to become more shallow as it seeps through the higher terrain of the Ouachitas overnight, with any cold advection minimal as it nears the I-20 corridor of extreme Ern TX/NW LA by daybreak. Still can't rule out some isolated to widely scattered convection along and ahead of the front, but have toned down pops to low/slight chance in VC and N of I-20. Also raised min temps tonight across a large part of the area ahead of the front, given the weak cool advection and the expected cu and low cig development expected to continue. The front still remains progged to continue drifting oh so slowly S through the remainder of Lower E TX/N LA through the day Friday, before eventually settling S of the region during the evening. Attm, any -SHRA development should be isolated with additional QPF amounts light, while also tapering the very warm and humid conditions as of late back to more tolerable levels.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a weak front over the plains will edge down along I-20, shifting our winds from S to vrb and then N/NE for the day ahead around 10KT or less this aftn. IFR/MVFR cigs with light BR and slight chance for some stray shwrs/isold TS along and S of I-30 for a few hrs, then shifting down to along I-20 by daybreak. This fropa is the beginning of NE winds that will continue all wknd w/ another couple of upper impulses riding along the front through Sat. Skies will clear out Sun aftn. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 60 67 52 / 20 40 60 90 MLU 77 59 66 51 / 20 20 50 80 DEQ 71 50 59 45 / 20 70 80 80 TXK 71 53 61 50 / 20 60 80 80 ELD 70 51 61 46 / 20 40 70 80 TYR 74 60 67 51 / 20 50 80 90 GGG 75 59 67 50 / 20 40 70 90 LFK 84 66 79 53 / 20 10 60 90

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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Shreveport, LA,