Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frierson, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:33PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 8:51 AM CDT (13:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:40AMMoonset 7:24PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frierson, LA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 32.35, -93.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kshv 281156
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
656 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Aviation
For the 28/12z tafs, low stratus and patchy fog will persist at
all terminals at the start of the period. MVFR and patchy ifr
conditions should improve into theVFR at all terminals by late
morning as ceilings slowly lift and scatter. Southeasterly surface
winds will increase to between 10 and 15 kts as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a strengthening surface trough over the
southern plains. Another round of low clouds and patchy fog is
expected to spread northward across most terminals after midnight.

Convection should develop across oklahoma and texas during the day
today. This activity is expected to be just west of ktyr at the
end of the period.

Cn

Prev discussion /issued 548 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion...

the morning sfc analysis indicates a weak cold front extending from
nrn ms SW along the ar/la border to just N of shv, to just S of
ggg/tyr, to near crs and act. Very weak pressure rises noted on the
msas analysis is noted over ERN ar this morning, which may allow this
bndry to continue to nudge S a bit more to just N of mlu before
becoming stationary around/shortly after sunrise. However, this bndry
shouldn't remain stationary long as srly winds increase to its s,
allowing it to lift N to along the red river valley of SE ok/extreme
ne tx into SW ar by mid to late afternoon. Weak overrunning is ongoing
attm atop this bndry, which may allow for isolated convection to
develop (especially this afternoon) as diurnal heating results in
better instability. Have maintained slight chance pops today near and
s of the front, with much above normal temps again expected,
especially along/s of i-20.

The primary focus on this forecast though is the amplifying upper
trough noted on the water vapor loop now digging across cntrl az,
which should close off later this morning as it traverses nm today and
into the tx/ok panhandles Wednesday. Convection should begin to
develop later this morning over the panhandle region, before
backbuilding S across W tx near/just E of the dryline. This convection
may organize into a squall line tonight as it progresses e, being
sustained by the 50kt srly LLJ as it advects the warm/moist sector n
across much of ok into ncntrl ar. The squall line should weaken late
though as it approaches ecntrl tx/se ok once it encounters weaker
instability and possibly outruns the deeper forcing ahead of the
closed low. With the progs slightly faster with the convection late
tonight, have increased pops a tad to mid and high chance across se
ok/wrn sections of E tx, with a few warm advection convection farther
e across the remainder of E tx/wrn la/sw ar.

While convection should remain ongoing Wednesday morning as it drifts
e into SE ok/e tx/wrn ar near the residual dryline, the short term
progs remain in agreement with this convection intensifying by
afternoon as convective inhibition weakens and MLCAPE increases to
1500-2000+ j/kg given the warming temps near/lower to mid 80s. What
is interesting this morning are that the short term progs maintain
strong serly low level winds across extreme ERN tx across much of n
la/sw ar Wednesday afternoon, with 0-1km SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2
over these areas. The split upper jet pattern rounding the based of
the closed low over over SE tx/nw gulf will yield increasing vertical
motion atop this strong sheared environment, such that the threat for
bowing segments/lewps will develop with the likelihood of damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes. Given the relatively high wet bulb zero
heights and only elevated steep lapse rates, believe hail will be only
a marginal concern, with locally heavy rainfall possible where cells
develop/train over the same areas before beginning to shift E as the
closed low drifts E along the red river. Have trimmed back pops a tad
Wednesday morning W of the i-49 corridor, before ramping pops up to
categorical/likely pops for the afternoon with mention of svr wording.

Continued with likely/categorical pops Wednesday evening with svr
wording before the convection diminishes from W to E late as dry air
entrains ewd into the region.

The attendant weak cold front will slowly shift E across N la/sw ar
Thursday, and will focus sct convection along and ahead of it with
what available moisture remains as the primary trough associated with
the closed low enhances large scale forcing over these areas. Could
see svr convection develop again where sbcapes climb to 1000-1500 j/kg
again during the morning/early afternoon, with instability further
enhanced by steep h850-700 lapse rates resulting in the potential for
hailers and damaging winds. Convection will diminish during the
afternoon with the passage of the cold front, with the wrap-around
cloud cover diminishing Thursday night as the low begins to open and
shift E away from the region.

Flat ridging aloft will quickly build over the SRN plains/ms valley
Friday in wake of this departing trough, and in advance of the next
closed low forecast to drop through the SRN rockies. While a serly low
level flow should return to the area Saturday, low level moisture
return will not return in earnest until Sunday, at which point
shortwave energy will begin to eject NE across the region ahead of the
low. Depending in the nwd expansion of the warm/moist sector, could
again be dealing with the prospects for svr convection Sunday
especially over E tx/n la. Have maintained likely/high chance pops for
Sunday/Sunday night, with the potential for more sct convection Monday
as this low shifts E across the ms valley.

Prelims to follow below...

15

Preliminary point temps/pops
Shv 83 67 83 63 / 20 20 70 80
mlu 82 64 85 66 / 20 10 20 80
deq 76 63 74 56 / 10 40 80 70
txk 78 65 78 60 / 20 30 80 70
eld 79 63 83 63 / 20 10 40 80
tyr 82 68 76 58 / 20 50 80 50
ggg 82 68 78 61 / 20 30 80 60
lfk 87 69 81 63 / 20 20 80 70

Shv watches/warnings/advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

15/09


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA11 mi1.9 hrsN 08.00 miOvercast68°F66°F97%1013.3 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi55 minSSE 38.00 miOvercast70°F66°F90%1013.2 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi58 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist68°F64°F87%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from BAD (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrS7SW9
G16
SW8SW8SW9W8SW11W10W8W6SW4SW4CalmCalmN8S5N3NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSE3
1 day agoCalmS7S9SE6SE9S9S7S14
G19
S11S11SE9S12S10S10S13S15S11S13S9S12S9S9S10S7
2 days agoW10W15
G21
W10W11W5W8NW12NW12NW8W7W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.