Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frierson, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:13PM Sunday November 18, 2018 10:03 AM CST (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 2:02AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frierson, LA
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location: 32.35, -93.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 181155
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
555 am cst Sun nov 18 2018

Aviation
For the 18 12z tafs, a cold front was located from palestine tx,
to near sulphur springs tx, to near broken bow ok, and north-
northeast into western arkansas. Ahead of the front, showers will
continue to develop for the first several hours of the period.

Ktxk, ktyr, kggg, and kshv will be the primary TAF sites to be
impacted. Coverage of the showers will likely decrease after
18 18z as drier air aloft begins to move into the region. Most of
the rain will dissipate or exit the area by 19 00z, but additional
showers will develop and move northward across louisiana and east
texas during the last few hours of the period.

As the front progresses eastward, ceilings will fall into the MVFR
range with little change expected after that time in most
locations, but a few instances of ifr ceilings cannot be ruled out
overnight. Surface winds will shift to the west and northwest
following the frontal passage and increase in speed. Wind speeds
may be as high as 10 or 12 kts across portions of east texas, but
speeds should decrease at all terminals after sunset.

Cn

Prev discussion issued 409 am cst Sun nov 18 2018
short term... Today through Monday
at 0930z this Sunday morning, a cold front was just entering
mccurtain and red river counties. The front is expected to be
near a line from prescott ar to lower toledo bend reservoir by
noon today and should finally exit the forecast area after
midnight tonight. Latest radar loops show a line of showers has
been developing while rapidly moving east from near mineola tx
north-northeast into western arkansas. Showers will continue to
develop along the frontal boundary through noon and move eastward.

During the afternoon hours, dry air advection behind the front in
the mid and upper levels will likely lead to a decrease in the
coverage of showers across most of the area. Rain will likely
become limited to deep east texas where moisture levels are
highest and southern arkansas where vertical ascent from an
approaching positively-tilted upper trough will be greatest.

A large temperature gradient can be expected today for daytime
highs. Deep east texas and north central louisiana should warm
well into the 60s before the cold front arrives. Temperatures will
likely fall during the afternoon hours across the remainder of the
area. Locations in southeast oklahoma will struggle to get out of
the 40s today due to the cold air advection and thick low cloud
cover. Despite persistent low clouds areawide, a chilly night is
likely across the northwest half of the forecast area. Low
temperatures may approach the freezing mark in the the terrain of
mccurtain county.

The 850-700mb frontal boundary will be far displaced to the
northwest of the surface front. As the upper trough axis slowly
moves southeast across the area, showers will once again increase
in coverage from south to north during the day Monday along the
elevated frontal boundary. Rain chances will generally be
confined to areas along and south of a line from tyler tx to el
dorado ar.

Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light, even though
persistent rain chances are expected for most of the short-term
period. Rain totals will likely rain below one half inch.

Cn
long term... Monday night through Saturday
the base of the shortwave trough extending from W and cntrl tx into
the lower ms valley Monday afternoon will quickly shift SE to
near the SE tx SRN la coast by daybreak Tuesday, with much drier air
expected to quickly spill SE with the trough passage. However, sct
shra should still be ongoing Monday evening over the SE sections of
ncntrl la near the cold front, before quickly shifting SE out of the
area by 06z Tuesday. Thus, have maintained chance pops for this area
Monday evening, before dropping mention after 06z. A dry NW flow aloft
will yield a picture perfect day areawide Tuesday, although below normal
temps will continue Monday night through Saturday
the base of the shortwave trough extending from W and cntrl tx into
the lower ms valley Monday afternoon will quickly shift SE to
near the SE tx SRN la coast by daybreak Tuesday, with much drier air
expected to quickly spill SE with the trough passage. However, sct
shra should still be ongoing Monday evening over the SE sections of
ncntrl la near the cold front, before quickly shifting SE out of the
area by 06z Tuesday. Thus, have maintained chance pops for this area
Monday evening, before dropping mention after 06z. A dry NW flow aloft
will yield a picture perfect day areawide Tuesday, although below normal
temps will continue despite ample insolation.

Our focus remains on the next shortwave that will traverse the desert sw
Tuesday night Wednesday morning, and quickly translate E into the
srn plains during the afternoon. The GFS and canadian have trended
much drier with this system Wednesday afternoon and evening, with
virtually no h850 moisture return ahead of the approaching trough, and
dynamic forcing having to saturate the dry column from the top down.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF has trended somewhat closer to earlier runs although
a bit slower with sct shra affecting primarily lower E tx and the srn
sections of ncntrl la Wednesday evening and night. Have slowed down the
timing of the re-introduction of pops Wednesday afternoon, going with
slight chance pops for the wsw sections of E tx, before increasing pops
to low and mid chance for E tx WRN la after 00z Thursday. However,
drier air should entrain with the shortwave passage thus quickly tapering
the shra from W to E Wednesday night.

Cool and dry conditions should return for thanksgiving day, but this is
where the medium range progs diverge as the GFS is most aggressive with
the next progressive shortwave passage from the cntrl and SRN plains into
the ms valley Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF canadian have trended a bit
slower, with convection increasing for the afternoon. Have added low chance
pops areawide Friday afternoon evening, before drier air quickly entrains e
into the region in wake of the trough passage. The progressive pattern
looks to continue through next weekend as the next trough closed low
begins to amplify over the SRN rockies by the latter half of the weekend,
thus returning at least isolated to sct convection to the region just
beyond the end of the extended period. Deepening srly low level flow
should also result in the return to more seasonal temps by next weekend
as well.

15 despite ample insolation.

Our focus remains on the next shortwave that will traverse the desert sw
Tuesday night Wednesday morning, and quickly translate E into the
srn plains during the afternoon. The GFS and canadian have trended
much drier with this system Wednesday afternoon and evening, with
virtually no h850 moisture return ahead of the approaching trough, and
dynamic forcing having to saturate the dry column from the top down.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF has trended somewhat closer to earlier runs although
a bit slower with sct shra affecting primarily lower E tx and the srn
sections of ncntrl la Wednesday evening and night. Have slowed down the
timing of the re-introduction of pops Wednesday afternoon, going with
slight chance pops for the wsw sections of E tx, before increasing pops
to low and mid chance for E tx WRN la after 00z Thursday. However,
drier air should entrain with the shortwave passage thus quickly tapering
the shra from W to E Wednesday night.

Cool and dry conditions should return for thanksgiving day, but this is
where the medium range progs diverge as the GFS is most aggressive with
the next progressive shortwave passage from the cntrl and SRN plains into
the ms valley Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF canadian have trended a bit
slower, with convection increasing for the afternoon. Have added low chance
pops areawide Friday afternoon evening, before drier air quickly entrains e
into the region in wake of the trough passage. The progressive pattern
looks to continue through next weekend as the next trough closed low
begins to amplify over the SRN rockies by the latter half of the weekend,
thus returning at least isolated to sct convection to the region just
beyond the end of the extended period. Deepening srly low level flow
should also result in the return to more seasonal temps by next weekend
as well.

15

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 61 42 54 40 30 20 30 10
mlu 66 50 57 42 20 20 40 20
deq 53 38 55 34 40 0 0 0
txk 57 39 54 37 40 10 10 0
eld 60 44 55 37 30 20 20 10
tyr 57 39 54 39 40 20 20 0
ggg 57 40 54 39 40 20 30 10
lfk 63 44 54 41 30 40 40 10

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

09 15 09


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA11 mi68 minN 010.00 miOvercast53°F49°F86%1023.6 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi68 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F50°F83%1023 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F50°F83%1023.3 hPa

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Last 24hrS4S4SE4SW6S8SW7S6SE5SE4SE3SE3CalmCalmS4SE5SE5SE4S4CalmS4SE5S4SE7Calm
1 day agoS5SW4SW5S6--S6S6S6S4--S6S6------SE6SE5SE5S4SE4SE3CalmCalmS4
2 days agoW4NW4CalmSW4CalmSW6S6SW4S3S4S4S4S5S5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3S3S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.