Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelahatchie, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:11PM Friday June 23, 2017 3:49 PM CDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelahatchie, MS
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location: 32.38, -89.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 231754
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
1254 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017

Update
Updated for 18z aviation discussion

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
allow for continued MVFR conditions through the period. Where
storms occur, brief ifr conditions will exist along with gusty
wind near 30 knots. 26

Discussion
Large area of mostly tropical rain continues this morning over the
arklamiss delta region with enough heavy rainfall being produced
to prompt flash flood warnings for part of the area. Cam models
show the rain area spreading to the east as the circulation center
moves into tn ky.

A cold front dropping south into the region tonight looks to bring
some potent convection with it, but uncertainties exist at the
moment as to whether it will move into the forecast area. 26
prior discussion below:
through tonight:
at the time of this writing the center of tropical depression
cindy was located over southeastern arkansas and advancing in the
general direction of memphis. Most of the consolidated heavy rain
associated with the center of cindy has remained west of the
forecast area through most of the night, although just recently
some of this is starting to nudge into the arklamiss delta.

Meanwhile, the solid secondary thin heavy rain band causing issues
in the past 12 hours from coastal ms N NE into central al has
starting to break up some and migrate back to the west,
essentially bringing a stream of heavier showers back into SE ms,
at least temporarily.

For today, the remnants of cindy will pick up speed to the
northeast as the trough associated with the current depression
links up with the southern fringes of the relatively fast northern
jet stream. As cindy passes to the north of the region expect high
moisture transport north into the system to fuel additional
pockets of heavy rain through the our region, and even continue
to produce enough shear to warrant a low-end risk of severe
weather (mainly in the form of locally gusty winds and perhaps a
tornado or two). This risk of severe weather today will mainly be
for central and eastern zones and will be highlighted in the hwo
and graphics. The overall flooding threat fortunately does not
appear as impressive as it could be considering the close
vicinity of the passing tropical system, but there still remains
enough localized flash flooding threat (particularly over areas
that have received heavy rain in the past two days) to continue
the going flash flood through the afternoon in all areas.

Otherwise, there is a decent possibility at least the western
third of zones may be clear of a good deal of the rain by this
afternoon and some breaks in the clouds there could allow temps to
peak late into the upper 80s. Most other locales in the forecast
area will experience highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.

But the rain will certainly not be over after this afternoon,
especially along and north of the i-20 corridor. Model consensus
is pretty good that a cold front in the wake of the passing cindy
will get shoved south quickly enough to work into northern
portions of the region from late evening through the overnight.

Current very tame lapse rates aloft will have recovered some by
then and lingering high moisture (precipitable water values around
2 inches) should be enough to yield a good deal of additional
showers and thunderstorms, even late into the night. Considering
non-insignificant flow aloft due to the southern fringes of the
impinging northern stream and the better lapse rates some strong
to maybe even marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. In
addition, flooding will of course remain possible with some of
this activity in areas that are already saturated, although at
this time we will not extend the flash flood watch into tonight
because moisture transport that normally drives flash flooding
situations will have really calmed down. The subsequent shift will
examine the situation closely and make any adjustments necessary.

Bb
Saturday through Thursday:
models and their ensembles were continuing to show a somewhat
active period in the wake of cindy. There will be plenty of
moisture in its wake with pwats in excess of 2 inches for
Saturday, which spells some locally heavy rainfall potential.

Meanwhile a broad latitude upper trough will bring a front into
the region over the weekend. Model solutions seem to bring the
front through the region a little faster on the 00z run by Sunday
morning. Drier air will come through the region behind the front
on Sunday night. This will confine our rain chances across our
southern counties at this time. Upper troughing will increase some
across the southeastern CONUS as high pressure builds into the
region from the midsouth. By Monday evening the drier air will
scour out our rain chances across the south. Pwats will be
generally less than one inch. Nightly lows early next week will
dip into the comfortable 60s. As we go into the mid week period
the upper trough will exit to the east as upper ridging builds in
from the southern plains. This will allow return gulf flow to come
back across the region as pwats increase to around the 1.2 to 1.5
inch range. This will allow diurnal convective rain chances to
develop over the region. 17

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 85 74 84 69 78 62 69 32
meridian 86 74 85 68 67 61 80 38
vicksburg 82 73 84 69 92 67 73 24
hattiesburg 87 75 87 71 67 34 75 51
natchez 83 74 84 70 72 50 78 38
greenville 83 72 83 66 88 68 50 17
greenwood 81 73 84 65 78 70 52 18

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... Flash flood watch until 7 pm cdt this evening for msz018-019-
025>066-072>074.

La... Flash flood watch until 7 pm cdt this evening for laz007>009-015-
016-023>026.

Ar... Flash flood watch until 7 pm cdt this evening for arz074-075.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jackson, Jackson International Airport, MS12 mi55 minSW 910.00 miOvercast83°F75°F79%1012.2 hPa
Jackson, Hawkins Field Airport, MS19 mi56 minWSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F75°F77%1012 hPa

Wind History from JAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15S15
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1 day agoE9E8
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2 days agoE5NE6SE5SE6NE3E5E4NE6E7E5E6NE6E4NE6NE8E9E8E7E11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.