Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 3:55 PM   Moonset 4:24 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 190639 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 139 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 925 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Now that things have quieted down in terms of convection, one of the primary concerns going through the remainder of the night into early Friday morning will be for dense fog in the southeast given expected overnight cooling in the very humid boundary layer and light southerly low level flow. Have maintained the limited dense fog threat for now but it wouldn't be too surprising if we eventually need a dense fog advisory in the Pine Belt region.

Otherwise, we'll be monitoring storms currently well to the north associated with a cold front that will approach northwest portions of the area toward daybreak. Most guidance show that storms will begin to weaken as they enter our area, and this at least seems reasonable given the diminishing instability and convective inhibition. Having said, the spring season always throws in a few wrinkles when it comes to forecasting convective evolution, so don't be surprised if there are a few strong to marginally severe storms in the Bolivar County area before daybreak. /EC/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow: The severe weather and flooding threat in the northern portions of the CWA will be the main focus for the short term forecast as a slight and marginal risk areas for severe will continue through midnight tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to golf ball sized, severe storms possible will be the main threats for this event as well as a tornado not being able to be be ruled out. Flash flooding will also be possible near the ArkLaMs borders due to the repetitive nature of the forecasted storms heavy rainfall over the same area. While we still expect this to be scattered thunderstorm event, if storms do form there is the possibility for supercell development which could produce hail up to golf ball sized, damaging wind gusts and a tornado cant be ruled out. The timing of the main brunt of this weather will last until around midnight tonight. As storms wrap up expect isolated shower and storm chances to remain through the overnight but will remain mostly above I-20 with best chances above Hwy-82. Going into the morning dense patchy fog will be possible again in the southeastern portions of the CWA as excess moisture and light winds will make development easy and more likely due to persistence. Going into the early morning a cold front will be in the process of dropping into the CWA allowing rain chances in the north to persist through the afternoon as the boundary moves off to our east. Rain chances will continue in the northeastern portions of the CWA through the forecast period./KP/

Saturday through Thursday: The pattern change will continue through the weekend and into early next week as an upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico refocuses over the southwestern U.S.
and upper-level troughing becomes more prevalent over the eastern U.S. Building surface high pressure will make its way southeast out of the High Plains and toward the Mid- South behind a cold front Sunday into Monday. It should bring drier air and initially cooler weather to the Gulf Coast region. Flow aloft over our area will be mostly zonal in the early to midweek time frame, and it's possible a shortwave moving north of our area and its attendant cold front could trigger a few showers or thunderstorms as the system glances by our region. For now, POPs are an uncertain 20 percent for next Wednesday. Temps will warm to above normal again as the high pressure shifts eastward. /NF/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low stratus/fog expected to be main concerns through the overnight hours, with some already developing, especially in southern TAF sites. LIFR/IFR remains likely, with VLIFR flight categories psbl, due to low stratus/dense fog. Primary dense fog concerns remain in the PIB/HBG areas once again. Expect any low vsby improvements after 19/14Z & ceilings to lift later in the morning with daytime heating/mixing & MVFR/VFR categories should prevail by afternoon.
There will be persistent lowered MVFR ceilings in northern TAF sites of GLH, GWO & through the aftn hours. Not expecting much in the way of convection but some could sneak in the Hwy 82 corridor near or just prior to daybreak. Some scattered SHRA or VCTS is psbl into the aftn, mainly near GTR, but confidence is too low to introduce in the 06Z TAF cycle. Persistence is likely again this evening with another round of low LIFR/IFR stratus & psbl fog near PIB & HBG. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 82 64 73 52 / 20 10 50 80 Meridian 87 62 75 51 / 20 20 40 70 Vicksburg 80 61 70 51 / 20 10 50 80 Hattiesburg 87 66 83 58 / 10 10 40 60 Natchez 85 64 76 53 / 10 10 30 70 Greenville 72 56 63 51 / 20 30 70 80 Greenwood 74 57 65 50 / 20 20 60 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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