Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burton, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:25PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:08 PM EST (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 656 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this evening, then becoming S after midnight, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 656 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burton, SC
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location: 32.41, -80.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 122023
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
323 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week
with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A
mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A very complex surface pattern remains in place across the
region this afternoon with an high pressure wedge inland and a
strong coastal front lurking just offshore. Ndbc and weatherflow
marine observations suggest the coastal front is finally
beginning to meander closer to the coast, mainly the georgia
coast where rain has stopped falling into the wedge. A large
area of rain moving across the charleston tri-county area should
push north of the santee river by sunset, so this should allow
the coastal front to push inland as widespread diabatic
processes cease. As is typical with cold air damming events,
there is considerable uncertainty on exactly where the coastal
front will eventually reside, which has significant impacts on
temperatures, rain chances, etc. Generally used a blend of the
various high resolution models to construct the surface pattern
through daybreak.

For tonight, the initial batch of rain moving through charleston
will exit by sunset as the main region of 925-850 hpa moisture
transport propagates into the pee dee. Another batch of
isentropic assent is forecast to move from the south later this
evening with additional scattered showers and maybe a few tstms
potentially developing along the inland moving coastal front.

Best pops will be generally along east of the i-95 corridor,
including both the savannah and charleston metro areas. Guidance
is similar in showing a large area of elevated instability
moving into the region after sunset. Despite strong shear,
elevated instability and favorable veering wind profiles for
rotating storms, a lingering low-level inversion within the
wedge should prevent any mesocyclonic circulations from working
down to the surface. The only exception could be over mainly
coastal south carolina where some surface based instability may
develop if the coastal front pushes far enough inland. While
low, there is a non-zero risk for tornadoes. It should be noted
at several of the various cams show a number of potential
supercells moving northeast across southern south carolina.

Temperatures will be tricky as temperatures could rise overnight
as the coastal front pushes inland, especially central and
coastal counties. Lows will likely occur at midnight for many
areas with temperatures steady or slowly rising overnight. Lows
will range from the mid 50s well inland to around 70 along parts
of the georgia coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
A surface cold front will manage to cross the forecast area by late
Tuesday with high pressure beginning to build back in behind. An
increasingly sharp upper trough located over the south-central
plains region will move east with many of the synoptic models
indicating formation of a closed upper low by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. Interestingly, the frontal system could exhibit features
of both katabatic and anabatic structure. While persistent, low-
level southwest flow in advance of the front will provide the warmth
and moisture for precipitation production during and in advance of
front passage, the presence of the sharp trough and or closed low to
the west will maintain southwest flow just aloft, even as surface-
level winds veer northeast behind the front, maintaining atmospheric
column moisture levels. While model soundings to a small degree show
very shallow drying, it is unclear at this point if the consequence
will be primarily expansive but dry cloud cover, or if elevated
precipitation chances will continue into early Wednesday.

Regardless, and despite the subtle dampening of the parent trough
through the day Wednesday as the cutoff low moves closer to the
southeast u.S., it appears the mid and upper level trough low become
phase-locked and our next mid-latitude cyclone is off to the races.

Complicating matters for the Wednesday forecast include some degree
of cold air damming likely persisting east of the appalachians,
which the low pressure system will have to ride over. Thursday into
Thursday night, the low pressure system will eject northeast away
from the area, with drier high pressure building in behind. While
some model variance exists with timing the end of precipitation on
Thursday, reasonable agreement suggests noticeably drier conditions
over much if not all of the forecast area by Thursday afternoon or
evening. While some thunder might be heard, and a nonzero chance of
damaging winds and or tornadoes exists, the best potential for any
severe weather looks to remain well inland of the forecast area
through the short term period.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
Latest model guidance suggests improving conditions Thursday night
with dry weather prevailing into early next week, although another
reinforcing mostly dry cold front looks to move through probably
Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures will mostly be near to below
normal.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Kchs: ifr to low-end MVFR CIGS will continue at kchs for much of
the 18z TAF period. Ifr CIGS look most likely early, through
about 21, after which a coastal trough is expected to move
inland. This will tend to trend CIGS more on the low-end MVFR
level with its passage. Widespread showers will impact the
terminal through mid-afternoon, so prevailing shra with MVFR
vsbys will be highlighted. Could see some brief ifr vsbys in
pockets of heavier showers, but seems MVFR will be more likely.

Risk for showers will linger for much of the night, but best
moisture transport is forecast to drift northeast into the pee
dee, so no mention of showers will be included for the
overnight period.

Ksav: low-end MVFR CIGS will persist for the rest of the
afternoon with CIGS lower to ifr this evening as a coastal
trough approaches the terminal. Right now, it appears the trough
axis will remain just to the east, which should allow CIGS to
lower. CIGS could get below alternate minimums, but there is no
indications of CIGS getting as low as airport minimums. Will
limit CIGS to 500 ft as a result. MVFR CIGS are expected to
redevelop by mid-morning Tuesday.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions are expected at both
terminals into Thursday due to a series of low pressure systems,
likely reducing primarily ceilings but also possibly surface
visibilities below ifr levels at times. In addition, gusty winds are
expected, mainly Wednesday into early Thursday.

Marine
Tonight: winds and seas will build tonight as the coastal front
pushes inland. Winds should turn east and eventually southwest.

Winds look to be highest off the charleston county coast where a
few gusts to gale force could occur. Recently noted 41004 has
been gusting in the upper 20s to around 30 kt for the past
several hours. Seas will build to 6-8ft charleston and georgia
offshore waters with 4-7 ft elsewhere. Small craft advisories
remain in effect for all marine legs with the exception of
charleston harbor.

Tuesday through Saturday: unsettled conditions are expected for
marine zones through much of this period as a series of storm
systems impacts the region. Small craft advisories are likely
for most of the area through Thursday, or through Friday for
offshore georgia waters. At this time, the worst conditions look
to occur Wednesday into Thursday morning as surface pressure
falls result in the tightest pressure gradient of the period. As
a result, gusts to gale force will be possible Wednesday
through Wednesday night, with seas reaching near 9-10 feet.

Conditions will then improve Thursday into Friday as the low
pulls away from the southeast and the pressure gradient relaxes.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Tuesday for amz352.

Small craft advisory until midnight est Friday night for
amz374.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Tuesday for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for amz354.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi143 min NNE 1.9 59°F 1018 hPa59°F
41033 18 mi60 min Calm G 0
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 28 mi38 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 67°F1017.6 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 47 mi68 min NNE 5.1 G 6 62°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.2)62°F
CHTS1 48 mi38 min N 1.9 G 4.1 60°F 66°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC4 mi73 minNE 57.00 miLight Drizzle61°F60°F100%1017.3 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC5 mi12 minNNW 32.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist62°F62°F100%1018.1 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC13 mi78 minNE 58.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F62°F94%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NE10NE10NE12
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2 days agoSE3CalmCalmW7S5S4W7NW10NW7NW11NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Battery Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:17 AM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:16 PM EST     8.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.46.75.23.41.80.8123.65.26.77.78.27.96.95.23.31.611.42.53.95.36.4

Tide / Current Tables for Capers Creek, Cowen Creek, St. Helena Island, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Capers Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:15 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:04 PM EST     7.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:00 PM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.16.34.93.21.70.812.13.75.36.67.57.97.56.44.831.611.42.53.95.36.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.