Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burton, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:43PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 300 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..NE winds 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft in the evening, then seas 1 foot.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ300 300 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Dry high pressure will prevail today with a weak upper disturbance moving through tonight. A stronger storm system will then impact the area Saturday night and Sunday. Much colder temperatures will return early next week followed by increasing temperatures and rain chances into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burton, SC
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location: 32.41, -80.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 170530
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1230 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
Dry high pressure will build from the west and prevail into
Thursday. A weak upper level disturbance will move through
Thursday night. A stronger storm system will then impact the
area Saturday night and Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1225 am: near term guidance indicates that sfc high pressure
will surge southward across the chs tri-county around dawn this
morning. Moisture convergence is expected to increase and will
support a period of patchy fog.

Previous discussion:
very few changes required again with the late evening update.

We did tweak a few inland temps down another 1-2f based on
recent and expected trends, now showing the lowest values of
30-32f far inland, 33-36f most elsewhere near and west of us-17,
with 38-43f on the barrier islands, in downtown charleston and
near the shores of lake moultrie. Some fog is possible closer to
daybreak, especially along rivers and marshes.

Previous discussion...

for the early evening update we have expanded the range of
minimum temps a little bit more, based on excellent radiational
cooling inland and just enough mixing along the coast to occur.

This will produce some lows at or below freezing along parts of
the coldest rural locations of our northwest tier. Otherwise
very few changes required at this time.

Short term 6 am this morning through Saturday
Surface high pressure over the eastern united states will
gradually shift to the east through Saturday. A weak upper level
disturbance will bring a cold front through the area Thursday
night. Moisture return ahead of this wave will be quite limited
and the quasi-zonal flow aloft will limit upward vertical
motion. Therefore we only show isolated showers moving through
far northern sc zones Thursday night. Strengthening southerly
flow Thursday into Friday will bring warming temperatures with
highs reaching the middle 60s by Friday.

An upper trough will move out of the central united states on
Saturday with a strong cold front approaching the area late in
the day Saturday. Most of the associated precipitation will
remain west of the area through sunset. However, despite
extensive cloud cover, continued warm advection will result in
high temps in the low to middle 70s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Moderate forecast confidence most of the period. There is more model
agreement now that a cold front will likely move through from the
west Saturday night into early Sunday, with much colder high
pressure building in thereafter through early next week. By the end
of the period a coastal trough and a possible low pressure system
could bring some rain back into the forecast but confidence is much
lower toward the middle of next week. Most locales should see a half
inch to maybe 1 inch of rain through the period, with most of the
rain coming over the weekend. Although deep layer shear is strong we
don't see a lot of instability so not overly concerned about the
severe thunderstorm threat at this point and in fact we don't even
have any mention of thunderstorms. It will also be breezy Sunday
into early Monday and a lake wind advisory may be needed for lake
moultrie.

Most, if not all, locales should be below freezing Monday morning
with inland areas in the mid to upper 20s and wind chills near 20
degrees. It's not out of the question that coastal areas reach wind
chill advisory levels of 15 degrees. Highs Monday should only range
from around 40 near the santee river to 50 near the altamaha river.

Temperatures Monday night are a bit tricky as much depends on how
much a coastal trough and high clouds come into play but inland
areas should get back below freezing again. Thereafter temperatures
will modify into mid week to near or above normal levels.

Aviation 05z Thursday through Monday
Near term guidance indicates that sfc high pressure will surge
southward across kchs around dawn this morning. Moisture
convergence is expected to increase and will support a period of
patchy fog. I will include a tempo between 10z to 13z for fg.

Ksav should remainVFR. During the daylight hours, south winds
will develop within the warm sector of low pressure tracking
across the ohio river valley. Winds across the terminals will
become light to calm during the evening hours.

Extended aviation outlook: restrictions expected Saturday night
into early Sunday, likely ifr or worse at times. Also,
breezy gusty conditions are expected later Saturday through at
least Sunday night.

Marine
Tonight: high pressure over the region will support varying winds
around 5 kt. Seas will be no more than 1 or 2 ft.

Extended marine: no significant concerns through Saturday but
conditions will be deteriorating significantly Saturday night
and Sunday as a strong cold front affects the area with some
heavy showers and possible thunderstorms (mainly near the gulf
stream). Winds could even gust near gale force across the ga
waters beyond 20 nm. Otherwise, small craft advisories are
likely for the entire area. Should see improving conditions
Monday as winds turn offshore and diminish with the weakening
cold air advection.

Tides coastal flooding
Coastal flooding: astronomical tide levels will be high early next
week and strong north northeast winds will help contribute to even
higher levels which could lead to minor saltwater flooding
around high tide. Thus, coastal flood advisories will be
possible.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term... Jrl
long term... Rjb
aviation... Ned
marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi104 min Calm 38°F 1025 hPa38°F
41033 18 mi81 min N 3.9 G 3.9 53°F 1023.8 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 28 mi59 min NNE 1 G 1.9 46°F 55°F1024.8 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 47 mi89 min W 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 1025 hPa44°F
CHTS1 48 mi59 min WNW 1 G 2.9 46°F 55°F1024.6 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC4 mi54 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist37°F37°F100%1024.4 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC5 mi33 minSW 310.00 miFair36°F35°F97%1024.6 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC13 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair37°F35°F93%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW5NW6NW6NW3NW3NW5SW3W6W5CalmCalmSW4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN4N4N3N3CalmCalmNE4NE4E3NW5NW5NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN9N6N8N8N9N8NW8NW9N7N5NW4NW6NW7NW3N4N5N6N4N4CalmN3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Battery Creek
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Thu -- 03:33 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:20 AM EST     7.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:23 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:49 PM EST     6.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.82.34.25.97.27.87.66.54.93.11.50.50.51.42.94.45.86.66.96.24.831.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Capers Creek, Cowen Creek, St. Helena Island, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Capers Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:32 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:08 AM EST     7.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     6.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.92.44.25.97.17.67.26.14.52.81.30.50.61.52.94.55.76.56.65.84.42.71-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.