Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaufort, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:42PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:07 AM EDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:53AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1025 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Monday through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1025 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will push offshore Monday night and be followed by a stronger, reinforcing cold front Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will then prevail into late week before another cold front possibly affects the area next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaufort, SC
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location: 32.44, -80.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 230557
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
157 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will push offshore Monday night and be followed by
a stronger, reinforcing cold front Tuesday afternoon. High
pressure will then prevail into late week before another cold
front possibly affects the area next weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 155 am: scattered to numerous showers are expected to pass
over the sc lowcountry through rest of the night, with less
coverage expected across SE ga. I will update the forecast to
increase pops to likely, with values increase during the day as
the front approaches. In addition, I will also update the winds,
sky, and temps with latest guidance.

Late this evening: made some changes to pop's for the next few
hours based on current radar trends. Went with likely pop's just
about everywhere as most locations should see rain, though
light. Otherwise, previous discussion continues below.

Early this evening: rounds of showers continue to stream
onshore across much of the area, with brief periods of moderate
to even heavy rain possible. So far, no lightning strikes have
been noted and any instability that is present is waning with
time. As such, did not mention thunder in the forecast. The main
upper trough and closed low feature remain well to the west,
and the area remains largely devoid of any large scale forcing.

Instead the driver for the ongoing precipitation seems to be
isentropic ascent within strong low level flow just above the
surface. In fact, the 00z chs RAOB revealed 25-27 knots of
southeasterly flow through the lowest 3 kft of the atmosphere.

The rounds of showers will likely persist through the night and
we have attempted to reflect this in the pop forecast. By late
tonight, parts of southeast georgia near the altamaha should
start to feel the approach of the larger scale forcing from the
west and the focus for rain chances will shift to this region.

No changes to temperatures as it will be a very mild night. Lows
will remain above 70 for many locations.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
Monday: the day will start out with a weak warm front
organizing near the savannah river along the nose of 925-850 hpa
jet. Associated isentropic assent warm air advection will
likely support scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded
tstms through the morning, lifting into the i-26 corridor by
early afternoon coincident with the warm front. There will
likely a several hours of rain-free conditions across much of
southeast south carolina and southeast georgia after warm fropa
as the warm sector becomes more firmly established ahead of an
approaching cold front. Pops will range from 30-70% during the
morning hours with the highest pops shifting into the charleston
tri-county area by early afternoon.

Conditions will deteriorate Monday afternoon into Monday
evening as a large swath of rain moves west-east across the
region. The 22 12z GFS remains a bit more progressive than the
22 12z ECMWF and nam, mainly due a weaker amplification of the
southern steam shortwave currently moving out of eastern
oklahoma and texas. This results in a quicker onset and
progression of rain across southeast south carolina and
southeast georgia with lower qpf. Generally favored a slower,
stronger and wetter ecmwf-nam blend for timing and the
construction of hourly pops with some minor contribution from
the GFS given its continued more progressive run-to-run
consistency. It should be noted that both the NAM and ecmwf
initialized better with 12z 500 hpa heights and vorticity across
texas into the central plains. Pops will range from 70-90%,
highest interior southeast georgia, Monday afternoon, 80-90%
region-wide Monday evening with rain chances ending from west-
east early Tuesday morning as a cold front pushes offshore.

Warm sector instability is expected to very slowly increase
through the day. Considerable cloudiness and some lingering
shower activity will likely limit the degree of instability
somewhat, but the combination of weak instability and increasing
deep-layered quasi-geostrophic forcing should be enough to
support at least scattered tstms. Shear will increase quickly
ahead of the front, but the limited instability should curtail
the overall risk for severe weather. If there are some
unexpected breaks in the cloud canopy and surface
temperatures instability correspondingly rise, then the risk for
severe tstms could increase, especially right along the front
itself. An organized high shear low CAPE severe weather event is
not currently expected, but an isolated severe thunderstorm
with damaging winds or even a tornado can not be completely
ruled out.

Highs will warm into the upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s
just inland from the coast. Lows will range from the upper 50s
well inland to the mid-upper 60s at the beaches.

Tuesday and Wednesday: some shower activity could linger along
the charleston county coast right around sunrise, but will
quickly translate offshore. A stronger, secondary cold front
will push offshore Tuesday afternoon, delineated by a sharp 850
hpa thermal gradient and onset of considerably stronger cold air
advection. Temperatures should rise to near 80 at the coast
prior to onset of stronger cold air advection, while far inland
areas may only warm into the mid 70s. Considerably cooler
conditions will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday with lows
dropping into the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the
beaches. Temperatures will only recover to the mid 60s Wednesday
afternoon as cool, canadian high pressure dominates the region.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Dry unseasonably cool conditions will prevail through Thursday
before some moderation occurs late in the week as high pressure
quickly shifts offshore allowing a milder return flow to set up.

Some uncertainty in the longer range model guidance regarding
timing of the next cold front implies lower forecast confidence
starting Friday night. For now we stayed pretty close to the
latest wpc guidance which has a cold frontal passage Saturday
night into Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal through
Thursday before likely getting back to or even above normal.

Many inland areas should get into the 40s each morning from
Wednesday through Friday.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Scattered to numerous showers are expected to pass near and over
kchs through the rest of the night, with less coverage expected
around ksav. South winds will strengthen through this afternoon
as a cold front approaches from the west, gusts around 20 kts
should be common. Rounds of showers should gradually increase
today, supported by synoptic scale forcing and building
instability. High resolution guidance suggests that a pre-
frontal band of stronger showers with embedded thunderstorms
will reach the terminals late this afternoon into the early
evening, I will highlight with a tempo. FROPA should occur
shortly after sunset, resulting in winds to shift from the sw.

Forecast soundings indicate that cloud based will lower as caa
arrives over the terminals, I will indicate MVFR ceilings.

Extended aviation outlook: MVFR with pockets of ifr or lifr
(mainly in vsbys) will occur Monday afternoon and evening as
showers tstms associated with a cold front push through. Tstm
impacts are possible.

Marine
This evening and tonight: a weak coastal trough will lift north
of the area this evening well ahead of a cold front advancing
into the eastern conus. Aloft, a mid upper lvl ridge of high
pressure centered over the western atlantic will gradually shift
further offshore as a longwave trough advances toward the
region late. Expect chances of showers and the pressure gradient
to slowly increase overnight ahead of the system. East winds
will become south late, increasing to 20-25 kts over much of the
coastal waters outside the chs harbor. Seas will also build
from 3-5 ft to 4-6 ft in nearshore south carolina waters while
approaching 5-7 ft in offshore georgia waters. For this reason,
small craft advisories will begin for nearshore south carolina
waters starting at 6am Monday and will be ongoing in offshore
georgia waters tonight. Models insist on a fairly unstable
marine environment late tonight with SBCAPE approaching
1000-1500 j kg. Given the approach of mid-lvl energy aloft, have
maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms over georgia waters
after midnight.

Monday through Friday: southerly winds will help build seas to
6 ft across mainly the south carolina nearshore waters after
sunrise Monday which will linger until Tuesday morning before
subsiding as winds turn offshore behind a cold front. A small
craft advisory will be issued for these zones to reflect this.

Seas will remain above 6 ft over the georgia offshore waters
until Tuesday morning as well and an advisory remains in effect
there. There is a brief window where seas could breach 6 ft over
the georgia nearshore waters, mainly late Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning, but will defer the need for an advisory there
to the midnight shift given the event looks marginal. Expect
improved conditions Wednesday into Friday as high pressure
prevails.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 5 am edt
Tuesday for amz352.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Tuesday for amz374.

Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 11 am edt
Tuesday for amz350.

Near term... Ned
short term... St
long term... Rjb
aviation... Ned st
marine... Dpb st


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 14 mi82 min Calm 72°F 1021 hPa72°F
41033 18 mi59 min SSE 9.7 G 16 74°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 31 mi49 min SE 8 G 11 74°F 74°F1020.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 45 mi67 min SE 18 G 19 74°F 1021.7 hPa (-1.3)69°F
CHTS1 46 mi49 min SSE 9.9 G 14 75°F 73°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC3 mi72 minSE 37.00 miLight Rain72°F69°F94%1021 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC4 mi71 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F73°F100%1020.9 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC15 mi72 minVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F69°F89%1021 hPa

Wind History from NBC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------E8--E7----------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago--------Calm3NE5NE5NE8NE8NE8NE8NE8NE8NE8NE8----------------

Tide / Current Tables for Beaufort, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Beaufort
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     8.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.97.25.94.12.310.71.534.96.77.98.48.27.25.63.721.11.22.33.95.66.9

Tide / Current Tables for Parris Island, Marine Corps Recruit Depot, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Parris Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:40 AM EDT     7.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:55 PM EDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.16.14.62.91.50.70.92.13.75.46.87.67.77.15.94.32.61.30.81.42.84.35.76.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.