Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaufort, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:25PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:47 AM EST (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1013 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1013 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaufort, SC
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location: 32.44, -80.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 130616
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
116 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week
with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A
mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 110 am: thunderstorms exhibiting cyclic mesocyclones were
tracking NE along the coastal waters of sc. Over land,
convection has been generally limited to showers. The convection
should continue through 3 am, then fog should gradually increase
across the inland counties. I will update the forecast to
account for the latest timing for convection and fog. In
addition, a coastal front has slide on shore across northern
charleston county, resulting in temperatures to warm
significantly. I will update to adjust hourly temperatures to
reflect the position of the front.

Previous discussion:
late this evening: surface observations indicate that the
coastal front is situated somewhere between kchs and the the
charleston county coast, and is somewhere in the vicinity of
ksav. Winds here at kchs have been calm, and at time out of the
southeast. Temperatures have risen into the low 60s at kchs,
with temperatures at the coast now around 70. We remain under
the influence of the right entrance region of the large upper
jet to the north, and there is still good convergence along the
coastal front. The combination of this forcing continues to
produce areas of showers, with isolated thunderstorms. No real
change to the forecast reasoning, and this forecast update
mainly refreshed rain chances to better match radar trends. The
severe threat remains low, but still exists. We have had one
interesting storm shower that moved across beaufort county and
exhibited some broad and weak rotation. Previous discussion
continues below.

Early this evening: a complex situation remains in place across
the forecast area. Surface analysis shows a damming high
situated to the northeast with a sharp and well defined coastal
front now laying right along our coastal counties. The cold air
damming is quite shallow, and the kchs RAOB data shows that the
low level inversion is only about 1 kft deep. Winds quickly
shift from northeasterly at the surface to southeasterly at 1
kft and above. The current radar presentation also suggests that
the front is just inland of the beaches with most of the current
shower development just on the cool side of the boundary. Most
models show the coastal front surging inland through the night
as a surface low develops near the florida panhandle. Usually,
models are too quick to erode the low level wedge, but in this
case it seems reasonable given the shallow nature of the cool
and stable air. We will continue to see periods of showers
develop and lift northward due to upper divergence in the right
entrance region of a powerful 150+ knot jet core that stretches
from the great lakes to nova scotia. Overall, the best forcing
for additional rain appears to be favored along and east of
i-95, and that is where the highest rain chances have been
placed.

There are a couple of concerns tonight, including the potential
for thunderstorms and severe weather. As the coastal front
progresses inland, much warmer air will arrive and could even
bring some surface based instability, though weak. Wind profiles
are concerning with the veering that takes place in the 0-3 km
layer, with accelerating flow and ~30 knots of shear.

Furthermore, hi-res models show some discrete cells developing,
and even some multi-cells. Given the background wind field, some
interesting storm structure is possible if enough instability
can develop. However, current thinking is that profiles are just
not supportive of enough instability and the overall severe
threat is low.

Finally, fog will be possible inland of where the coastal front
is able to progress. Some model guidance would indicate the
potential for dense fog, and it can't be ruled out given the
moist atmosphere and low level stable layer west of the front.

Added in some patchy fog for now, but could need to enhance the
fog wording later in some areas.

Short term 6 am this morning through Thursday
A surface cold front will manage to cross the forecast area by late
Tuesday with high pressure beginning to build back in behind. An
increasingly sharp upper trough located over the south-central
plains region will move east with many of the synoptic models
indicating formation of a closed upper low by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. Interestingly, the frontal system could exhibit features
of both katabatic and anabatic structure. While persistent, low-
level southwest flow in advance of the front will provide the warmth
and moisture for precipitation production during and in advance of
front passage, the presence of the sharp trough and or closed low to
the west will maintain southwest flow just aloft, even as surface-
level winds veer northeast behind the front, maintaining atmospheric
column moisture levels. While model soundings to a small degree show
very shallow drying, it is unclear at this point if the consequence
will be primarily expansive but dry cloud cover, or if elevated
precipitation chances will continue into early Wednesday.

Regardless, and despite the subtle dampening of the parent trough
through the day Wednesday as the cutoff low moves closer to the
southeast u.S., it appears the mid and upper level trough low become
phase-locked and our next mid-latitude cyclone is off to the races.

Complicating matters for the Wednesday forecast include some degree
of cold air damming likely persisting east of the appalachians,
which the low pressure system will have to ride over. Thursday into
Thursday night, the low pressure system will eject northeast away
from the area, with drier high pressure building in behind. While
some model variance exists with timing the end of precipitation on
Thursday, reasonable agreement suggests noticeably drier conditions
over much if not all of the forecast area by Thursday afternoon or
evening. While some thunder might be heard, and a nonzero chance of
damaging winds and or tornadoes exists, the best potential for any
severe weather looks to remain well inland of the forecast area
through the short term period.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Latest model guidance suggests improving conditions Thursday night
with dry weather prevailing into early next week, although another
reinforcing mostly dry cold front looks to move through probably
Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures will mostly be near to below
normal.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Prior to the 6z tafs: a wavy surface coastal front was just east
of kchs and a few miles east of ksav. Ksav should maintain lifr
conditions through 11z. Ceilings and winds at kchs will likely
remain variable through 9z given the location of the front and
passing showers. During the pre-dawn hours, kchs should see low
clouds increase and will develop ifr bases. Around dawn, periods
of passing drizzle may yield lifr conditions, highlighted with a
tempo from 9z-13z. After sunrise, heating should gradually lift
cloud bases to MVFR at kchs and ksav. Showers are forecast to
return to ksav late this afternoon and evening, with less
coverage over kchs.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions are expected at both
terminals into Thursday due to a series of low pressure systems,
likely reducing primarily ceilings but also possibly surface
visibilities below ifr levels at times. In addition, gusty winds are
expected, mainly Wednesday into early Thursday.

Marine
Tonight: winds and seas will build tonight as the coastal front
pushes inland. Winds should turn east and eventually southwest.

Winds look to be highest off the charleston county coast where a
few gusts to gale force could occur. Recently noted 41004 has
been gusting in the upper 20s to around 30 kt for the past
several hours. Seas will build to 6-8ft charleston and georgia
offshore waters with 4-7 ft elsewhere. Small craft advisories
remain in effect for all marine legs with the exception of
charleston harbor.

Tuesday through Saturday: unsettled conditions are expected for
marine zones through much of this period as a series of storm
systems impacts the region. Small craft advisories are likely
for most of the area through Thursday, or through Friday for
offshore georgia waters. At this time, the worst conditions look
to occur Wednesday into Thursday morning as surface pressure
falls result in the tightest pressure gradient of the period. As
a result, gusts to gale force will be possible Wednesday
through Wednesday night, with seas reaching near 9-10 feet.

Conditions will then improve Thursday into Friday as the low
pulls away from the southeast and the pressure gradient relaxes.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz352.

Small craft advisory until midnight est Friday night for
amz374.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz354.

Near term... Ned
short term... Jmc
long term... Rjb
aviation... Ned
marine... Jmc st


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 14 mi62 min Calm 69°F 1016 hPa69°F
41033 18 mi39 min Calm G 0
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 31 mi35 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 66°F1016.2 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 45 mi47 min WSW 4.1 G 6 69°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.0)69°F
CHTS1 46 mi29 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 66°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC3 mi72 minNW 62.50 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1015.6 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC15 mi52 minSSW 58.00 miOvercast72°F71°F100%1015.9 hPa

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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------N3
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Beaufort, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Beaufort
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:23 AM EST     6.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:24 AM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:58 PM EST     7.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:09 PM EST     1.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.96.86.14.93.42.11.31.42.33.75.26.57.47.67.36.44.93.321.51.72.74.15.4

Tide / Current Tables for Parris Island, Marine Corps Recruit Depot, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Parris Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:01 AM EST     6.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:31 PM EST     7.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.56.15.13.72.41.31.11.62.84.25.56.57.17.16.45.23.72.31.41.31.934.25.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.