Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Bay, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:38PM Monday March 25, 2019 5:50 PM EDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:47PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 546 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw later this evening, then W 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 546 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will cross the region tonight followed by a strong cold front Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the north and persist into Saturday. A cold front may affect the area late next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Bay, SC
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location: 32.49, -80.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 251954
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
354 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will cross the region tonight followed by a strong
cold front Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the
north and persist into Saturday. A cold front may affect the
area late next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Through late afternoon: dry weather will continue as a warm
and breezy afternoon in progress across the region. Low level
moisture had mixed-out resulting in sparse cumulus formation
to the south of the savannah river while a strong resultant
sea breeze across charleston county resulting in some of the
higher wind gusts across the area.

Tonight: mid level shortwave energy across the upper gulf coast
and tennessee valley is forecast to shift through ga and the
carolinas overnight. After sunset, 500 mb height falls will
increase while upper difluence builds ahead of the left exit
region of the upper jet along the gulf coast. Across southern
ga, we note that the low level flow becomes west in the 00z-03z
time frame and this should disrupt any transport from the gulf
of mexico in the boundary layer. We have maintained likely pops
during the late evening hours mostly along and north of i-16
where the best combo of upper forcing and moisture bisect. The
12z NAM has a too-slow but otherwise plausible solution with
upstream convection perhaps loosely organizing across the sc
midlands in the early evening and shifting east across the area,
especially north of i-16 over much of southern sc. Since the
timing for the brunt of the convection is generally after dusk,
instability is forecast to quickly wane with ml capes less than
500 j kg and decreasing with time. The mid levels are fairly
impressive with mid level lapse rates greater than -6.5c and
parameters indicating the potential for tstms. We suspect if
storms do tend to cluster upstream, wind potential appears low
with increasing CIN and surface-based inversions. We continue to
mention slight chance thunder this evening in all zones but the
severe weather risk appears generally low.

After midnight: as the short wave aloft moves over the region,
a cold front will pass offshore late with lingering chances
for showers north of the savannah river toward daybreak.

Temps will mainly be in the 50s for the overnight across the
area. We cannot rule out some patchy fog across out northern
zones inland from charleston where a broad frontal trough
exists out ahead of Tuesday's backdoor cold front.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
A backdoor cold front will drop into the area Tuesday morning from
the north and then continue to push south through the day. Moisture
is confined to the lower levels, so think any rain accompanying the
front will be fairly light. Accumulations should be a few hundredths
of an inch on average. Temperatures will be much cooler than Monday,
remaining in the 60s, except around 70 close to the altamaha. Lows
Tuesday night will range from upper 30s inland to low mid 40s at the
coast. Elevated winds will preclude any frost.

Cool high pressure will build in wake of the front, providing quiet
and dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. One forecast concern
is the potential for frost Wednesday night into early Thursday with
lows dropping into the mid upper 30s far inland. Winds will be
fairly light, and these conditions could support some patchy frost.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Unseasonably warm and mostly dry through the period. A cold
front may move through late Sunday or Sunday night though it is
currently unclear how much precipitation will accompany it.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at kchs and ksav into
this evening. A cold front and associated band of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will approach the terminals late this
evening. We have tempo showers at both sites in the 03-07z time
period. Once the area of showers moves offshore, ceilings will
develop and spread into the terminals. Guidance indicates the
potential for ifr ceilings, but we have kept the forecast MVFR
for now starting around 09z. A backdoor cold front will drop
through the coastal corridor after sunrise on Tuesday,
increasing northeast winds are expected.

Extended aviation outlook: sub-vfr ceilings will improve Tuesday
afternoon evening.VFR expected thereafter.

Marine
Southwest flow will continue into the evening hours with stronger
flow beyond 20 nm off the charleston county coast. Speeds will mainly
be below 15 kt with seas 2 to 3 ft. A cold front will move off the
coast late tonight with wind directions veering offshore with
Tuesday through Saturday: marine conditions will deteriorate on
Tuesday behind a back door cold front that will drop through the
area. Small craft advisory conditions will develop across all
coastal waters by late afternoon. The charleston harbor could reach
criteria, however it appears marginal during the daytime hours. A
more sure bet would be late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will hold
off on an advisory for now and reevaluate with next forecast cycle.

The period of strongest winds will be the 06z-18z Wednesday time
frame as 1000 mb geostrophic flow reaches 45-50 knots. A gale watch
has been hoisted for the outer ga waters where confidence is
highest. This may need to be expanded to at least some of the
nearshore zones eventually. Winds will begin to improve later
Wednesday, however it will take longer for seas to subside,
especially in the outer ga waters.

Rip currents: there will be an enhanced risk for rip currents mid-
week as elevated northeast winds and swell impact the beaches.

Tides coastal flooding
Between strong high pressure building from the north and low
pressure developing off the coast, strong northeast winds will
create elevated tide levels along the coast mid-week. While
astronomical factors do not favor tidal flooding, probabilistic
guidance depicts a low chance for minor salt water flooding,
mainly with the Wednesday morning high tide.

Equipment
The kclx radar remains out of service until further notice.

Additional parts are on order and the radar will be serviced
again on Tuesday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for amz352.

Gale watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
for amz374.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm to 11 pm edt Tuesday for amz374.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for amz350.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Tuesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for amz354.

Near term...

short term... Etm
long term... Etm
aviation... Etm
marine... Etm
tides coastal flooding... Etm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 20 mi65 min S 4.1 73°F 1014 hPa59°F
41033 26 mi42 min SSW 14 G 18 65°F 62°F1013.5 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 32 mi56 min 75°F 61°F1014.3 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 51 mi50 min S 13 G 15 65°F 1014.4 hPa (-2.9)60°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC5 mi54 minSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F50°F37%1013.3 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC11 mi55 minS 87.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1013.5 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC20 mi60 minS 710.00 miFair73°F55°F53%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from NBC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SE6SE6SE3SE4S4S4S3CalmS3CalmCalmS4S3S4S5SW10
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1 day agoS7S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmSE7SE5SE6--SE6SE9SE8
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W6SW9SW7W7SW7W7W7W6W7W7NW5N5N6E7NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for RR. Bridge, Hall Island, South Carolina
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RR. Bridge
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Mon -- 01:43 AM EDT     9.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:02 PM EDT     8.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.78.898.26.54.21.90.1-0.40.52.34.36.27.587.56.14.22.10.5-0.10.62.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for North Dawson Landing, Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina
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North Dawson Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:38 AM EDT     8.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:57 PM EDT     7.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:40 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.97.58.58.67.75.93.61.3-0.2-0.30.72.54.46.17.37.77.15.63.71.60.2-0.10.82.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.