Sunday, May19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
East Mountain, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday May 19, 2019 5:28 AM CDT (10:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:14PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Mountain, TX
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location: 32.58, -94.79     debug

Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 190922
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
422 am cdt Sun may 19 2019

Short term today through Monday night
potent thunderstorms finally congealed into a generally
progressive linear convective complex in the last several hours
and the primary severe threat is generally exiting to the
southeast of the four state region as I write. However, there
still is some training of storms over central la that poses some
flooding concern for the next hour or two and it is not totally
out of the realm of possibility for a severe storm to still clip
these areas before daybreak.

The storm prediction center has a several parishes in NE la in a
marginal risk for severe weather after daybreak today, but very
latest observational and guidance trends suggests nearly the
entire bulk of the severe risk will be to our east by daybreak.

Rain and storms will have cleared sufficiently away from the
arklatex by daybreak to allow for patchy low clouds and fog ahead
of an incoming cold front. This cold front will work into at
least the northwest half of the region through the day before
stalling near the i-20 corridor this evening. Lift produced by
this front and another very minor upper level wave coming across
could kick up a few more showers and stray storms later this
morning into the afternoon across the southeast half of the area,
but fortunately, ingredients for severe weather production should
be lacking by that time. Expecting clouds to hold high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, although humidity will still
remain pretty high ahead of the incoming cold front.

Expecting dry conditions tonight, but the rebolstering of
southerly low level flow late will increase moisture again and
start pushing the stalled boundary back north again as a warm
front before dawn Monday. This should lead to low clouds and maybe
even some patchy fog, although dense fog is not expected to be a
problem at this juncture. Lows could again dip well down into the
60s north of the i-30 corridor with most other locations seeing
minimums range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Another big disturbance pushing into the four corners region on
Monday is still anticipated to produce an outbreak of severe
thunderstorms over portions of the southern plains during the day
with convection likely congealing into a squall line the tries to
approach the ARKLATEX by daybreak. We do not expect any severe
activity in the region Monday through Monday night. However,
closer to the warm front (in primarily northern zones), the warm
air advection regime, subtle convergence, and approach of the
outskirts of the big disturbance well to our west could spark some
isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms.

Otherwise, highs temperatures should again peak in the mid to
upper 80s with enough humidity to push heat index values into the
low to mid 90s.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
on Tuesday, the big weather system producing the barrage of severe
thunderstorms in the southern plains on Monday will shift
northeast toward the central plains, but its influence will glance
the ARKLATEX enough to increase confidence of organized convection
getting into these areas during the day just ahead of a cold
front. The storm prediction center has these areas in the slight
risk of severe weather for that period and model consensus
suggests either a narrow squall line or broken line of cells with
primarily a wind threat in roughly the northwestern half of the
four state region. Model consensus is again good that the incoming
cold front will stall as it gets into the ARKLATEX Tuesday night
before lifting back to the north on Wednesday. Slackening lift and
shear should ensure any severe threat will likely be over by
Tuesday evening, although training showers and embedded storms
could continue in northern northwestern zones into Wednesday
before the entire region dries out. There is some risk the
training activity could pose a flood risk, but will refrain from
yet mentioning that in graphics and the hwo at this juncture
because model consensus is not high on rainfall amounts or
convective intensity after Tuesday evening.

Thereafter, the forecast becomes more simple owing to the growing
influence of a large upper level ridge of high pressure setting up
just to our west. Low level flow on the western side of the the
high should mainly remain from the south and ensure above normal
humidity most days from Wednesday into next weekend. Temperatures
should also be mainly above normal with lows generally around 70
degrees and high temperatures generally near 90 degrees.

Fortunately, the moist ground and relative location to the west of
the high should keep temperatures from getting nearly as far above
normal as will be the case farther to the east across the deep
south. Model consensus suggests there may be some slight and
mainly afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances materializing
late next week and into the weekend, but at this point the
predominate trend should be for dry weather and conditions were
kept mostly dry for the official forecast. 50

Prev discussion issued 1243 am cdt Sun may 19 2019

for the ARKLATEX terminals, severe convection still working
through deep E tx and N la early this a.M. Bow echoes with gusty
wind to 40kt, large hail possible and tornado threat for klfk kmlu.

Overnight progression of activity SE of those last two terminals
by daybreak. S winds 10-20kt tonight will become W SW for Sunday
10kt or less and even shift lightly to W NW 18z-24z. Skies will be
slowly lifting MVFR CIGS from daybreak until late a.M. With decks
scattering and becomingVFR for the afternoon. 24

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 87 71 88 73 20 10 20 10
mlu 87 70 88 72 60 10 30 10
deq 85 64 86 70 10 10 30 20
txk 85 67 86 72 10 10 30 10
eld 87 68 87 72 30 10 30 10
tyr 87 70 88 72 10 10 10 10
ggg 87 70 89 73 20 10 20 10
lfk 88 72 90 73 30 10 10 10

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

50 24

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gilmer, Fox Stephens Field - Gilmer Municipal Airport, TX12 mi34 minN 010.00 miThunderstorm67°F66°F98%1008.1 hPa
Longview - East Texas Regional Airport, TX14 mi36 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F69°F100%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from JXI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE5SE6SE6SE11
1 day agoCalmS5SE4S7S9
2 days agoCalmCalmS5S6S5S8S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.