Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:31PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:29AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1202 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 84 degrees.
AMZ300 1202 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. The region will remain situated between atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure into late this week. A weak cold front could stall near the area this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook Island, SC
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location: 32.6, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 181602
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1202 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
The region will remain situated between atlantic high pressure
and an inland trough of low pressure into late this week. A
weak cold front could stall near the area this weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is on track. Made slight adjustments to sky cover
over the northern zones as cirrus associated with the decaying
mcs off CAPE lookout drifts southwest.

18 12z upper air analysis showed a large mid-upper level ridge
in place across the southeast u.S, generally centered over the
tennessee valley. This ridge will hold firm through the day with
the local forecast area wedged in between subtropical high
pressure centered well offshore and a weak, southwest-northeast
oriented lee-side across the interior. This pattern will favor
a typical resultant sea breeze convective pattern with the
greatest rain chances displaced across interior southeast
georgia coincident with a ribbon of pwats in excess of 2 inches.

Thermodynamic profiles based on modified soundings at kchs,
ksav and klhw are not overly impressive for early summer with
sbcape generally peaking near 2500 j kg, li's -4 to -6c and
dcape 500-800 j kg. The overall risk for severe weather is low,
although a strong TSTM or two can not be ruled out where
updrafts are locally augmented by mesoscale boundary collisions.

Afternoon rain chances will run from 5% around the charleston
metro area where the resultant sea breeze will get a fairly
quick push to 40% along south of the i-16 corridor in southeast
georgia. Did opt to introduce a slight chance for showers tstms
across northern berkeley and upper charleston counties early
this evening where a number of cam members show isolated
convection potentially moving in from the north along a
southward moving outflow that originates from convection over
the pee dee into the CAPE fear region of north carolina.

Highs will range from the lower-mid 90s inland to the mid 80s at
the coast. Dewpoints in the lower-mid 70s will generally yield
peak heat indices in the 100-103 range, but local dewpoint
pooling into the upper 70s along the resultant sea breeze could
push heat indices close to 105 across parts of tidal berkeley,
charleston and coastal colleton counties for 1-2 hours. Current
thinking is that the limited spatial and temporal distribution
of the 105 heat indices are too limited to justify a heat
advisory at this time, especially with a higher risk for more
substantial heat indices later this week. This will be carefully
monitored, however.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Tonight: whatever lingering convection there is will dissipate
quickly after sunset due to the loss of heating and surface
destabilization. A dry forecast is in place through the rest of
the night, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday: a strong upper ridge will remain over
the area on Tuesday, lingering through Thursday though
weakening slightly. Despite a persistent lee trough and
substantial low- level theta-e, the mid-level subsidence will
likely limit convective potential. We have capped pops at slight
chance each day. Highs will top out in the mid 90s each
afternoon away from the coast. Wednesday looks slightly warmer
of the three days, along with somewhat higher surface dewpoints.

We are currently forecasting heat indices of 105-106f both
Wednesday and Thursday, though over a larger area on Wednesday.

We will continue to mention the possibility of heat advisories
in the hazardous weather outlook.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
A more active pattern is in store for the long range period.

The strong upper ridge will break down and shift east Friday,
allowing a weak upper trough pattern to setup. A weak cold front
could approach the area from the northwest over the weekend,
potentially bringing better coverage of showers and tstms. Highs
will still be in the low 90s, with heat indices approaching
105f each afternoon.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
Vfr. Tstms could be close to ksav at 18z TAF issuance time, but
the decision to include tsra or vcts for an hour or two will be
decided at the last minute pending radar and satellite trends.

Extended aviation outlook: mainlyVFR.

Marine
Today through tonight: southerly flow will prevail today,
becoming more southwesterly overnight. Wind speeds will top out
in the 10-15 knot range this afternoon, with some potential for
gusts to around 20 knots in the charleston county waters. Seas
will range 1-3 feet.

Tuesday through Friday: moderate southwest flow will prevail
Tuesday into Wednesday as atlantic high pressure remains in
place. Fairly robust afternoon sea breezes are expected each
day. Generally southerly flow will continue late week into the
weekend but the gradient looks weaker as the atlantic ridge
weakens and a weak front drops in from the northwest. Winds will
be strongest along the coast as a result of the sea breeze
though speeds could be a little lower than usual.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 14 mi66 min SSW 8.9 G 11 83°F 1021.3 hPa (+0.0)74°F
CHTS1 17 mi48 min SSE 8 G 11 85°F 84°F1020.4 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi81 min Calm 88°F 1021 hPa76°F
41033 27 mi58 min S 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 82°F1020.4 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi58 min SW 12 G 14 82°F 83°F1020.2 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 55 mi36 min SSW 12 G 14 1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi71 minS 8 miMostly Cloudy86°F78°F79%1020.7 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC22 mi70 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F72°F57%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE66SE8SE9SE8SE6SE6S6CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmS5W5S7SE8
1 day agoE7E9E9E9E7E7E4SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE4E6
2 days agoS8SW7S10S11S11S9SW8SW7NW4CalmW4NW11CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmN7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Mon -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:14 PM EDT     5.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.66.75.94.52.71.10-0.20.41.62.94.25.25.75.44.53.11.60.4-0.10.41.63.14.5

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 AM EDT     -2.88 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:36 AM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:27 PM EDT     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM EDT     1.76 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.2-1.5-2.4-2.9-2.5-1.5-0.40.81.51.61.41.10.4-0.7-1.7-2.4-2.4-1.6-0.60.51.51.81.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.