Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonboro, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:19PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:24 PM EDT (23:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 2:30AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 601 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 601 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A trough of low pressure will persist inland for the next few days. Developing low pressure over the gulf of mexico will slowly move north toward the central gulf coast this weekend, possibly lingering through early next week. This pattern will maintain higher than normal rain chances across the area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonboro, SC
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location: 32.63, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 242317
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
717 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will persist inland for the next few
days. Developing low pressure over the gulf of mexico will
slowly move north toward the central gulf coast this weekend,
possibly lingering through early next week. This pattern will
maintain higher than normal rain chances across the area.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A mid level perturbation over east-central georgia will
retrograde a little westward tonight, while at the surface a
back-door cold washes out not far to our n-ne. Much of the
forecast district is worked over from earlier moderate to heavy
rains, but some of these type of rains will persist through at
least the mid evening, especially across georgia in closer
proximity to the mid level feature, and where we find the best
moisture convergence and various boundary interactions. Some of
the convection will draw back toward savannah, but the bulk of
it should stay to the west. For areas such as charleston and
beaufort, the lingering light leftover rains will fade this
early evening. The pwat which is around 160-170% of normal for
late may, and limited storm motion will equate to minor to
moderate flooding in a few locations across interior georgia,
where rainfall rates of 1 to perhaps 2 inches an hour will still
be common. We did lower hourly temps several degrees early on
in many locations to account for all the rain, but left a
persistence forecast in regards to min temps toward morning. The
sref is hitting the potential for low stratus and fog a little
better than last night around 09-12z, and will consider adding
to the forecast in future updates if the widespread convective
clouds dissipate enough.

Previous discussion...

numerous showers and tstms have developed across land areas
this afternoon driven by a number of forcing mechanisms: sea
breeze, backdoor cold front to the north, and weak surface
trough over central ga. The in-situ airmass is very moist; spc
mesoanalysis shows a large area of 2.0" pwats. This, combined
with 1000-1500 j kg mlcape, is allowing for torrential rainfall
with the slow- moving convection. Earlier this afternoon a
station in west ashley, sc picked up 2.7" of rain in exactly one
hour. Fortunately we are seeing a slow westward shift in the
convection, limiting flooding potential. High-res models
continue to show the best coverage of convection shifting inland
through early this evening, gradually waning by 9-11 pm.

Overnight we should see minimal activity given the lack of
instability, though a few showers or tstms may pop up over the
coastal waters.

Lows will drop into the upper 60s by daybreak Friday. Patchy fog
is possible in areas where rainfall occurred and soil is moist.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
The weather will be driven mainly by a trough of low pressure inland
and high pressure in the atlantic. The high will start to move away
from our region on Friday, allowing the trough to become more
dominant. However, focus will remain on low pressure developing in
the gulf of mexico. The low is expected to strengthen as it moves
northward towards the central gulf coast. Either way, a tropical air
mass will remain in place with above normal rain chances, mostly
each afternoon and evening. Pwats will approach 2" Friday and
Saturday, then exceed 2" on Sunday as the aforementioned low gets
closer to the region, ushering deep tropical moisture in southerly
flow. Pops Friday and Saturday are generally chance to likely during
the day and slight chance at night. Pops may need to be increased
further on Sunday, but we're being conservative until the track of
the low becomes better defined. QPF will be typical of summertime
convection, highest where thunderstorms persist the longest.

Instability isn't overly impressive, especially as we head into
Sunday. As a result, thunder was capped at slight chance. The
argument could be made for chance thunder along the sea breeze, but
we opted to not get fancy with these details at this point.

Regardless, the flash flood and severe risk is low. Daytime
temperatures will be near normal. Nighttime temperatures will be
mild due to cloud cover and the moist air mass.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Not much pattern change through the period with deep low pressure
persisting to the west and atlantic high pressure to the east. This
will maintain a tropical air mass across the area and lead to higher
than normal rain chances, with not much more preference for higher
rain chances during the day than at night. Temperatures should
stay near to above normal.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Lingering light rains falling from the tops of the earlier
convection will gradually fade at ksav early tonight, while kchs
will stay rainfree. Late tonight into Friday morning there are
indications that both sites will experience MVFR or even ifr
conditions from low stratus and fog due to the saturated grounds.

As of this time the best chances for convection appears to be
inland from the terminals Friday afternoon, so nothing more then
vcsh withVFR ceilings is forecast with the 00z TAF set.

Extended aviation outlook: brief flight restrictions are possible
due to showers thunderstorms, especially each afternoon.

Marine
Relatively weak onshore winds will persist through tonight as a
cold front dissipates to the north. Seas 2-3 ft.

The coastal waters will remain between a trough inland and
atlantic high pressure Friday. This weekend the trough will
persist inland, but a low pressure system is expected to develop
over the gulf of mexico and track north toward the gulf coast.

Depending on the strength and track of the low will determine
how much of a wind sea increase there will be locally. Marine
headlines may be needed early next week.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term... Ms
long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 5 mi100 min SE 1.9 76°F 1019 hPa74°F
41033 24 mi77 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 79°F1018.4 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 31 mi85 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 77°F 1019.4 hPa (+0.0)72°F
CHTS1 31 mi55 min SSE 6 G 8 78°F 79°F1019.2 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 46 mi77 min S 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 78°F1019.6 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 47 mi55 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 79°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC17 mi29 minN 03.00 miLight Rain76°F75°F100%1018.9 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC17 mi30 minN 07.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain in Vicinity73°F73°F100%1019 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC22 mi30 minE 310.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain in Vicinity72°F71°F100%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S5SW3S3S4S4S3S5S3S4CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3S5S3S3E12SE6SE3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoS4S4S5S6S8S8S8S6S7SW6SW6SW6SW7SW5W5SW5SW6S8SE7S7S10
G15
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2 days agoS4SE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3S6S14
G27
SW4S7S8
G15
S7S6--S10S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Airy Hall Plantation, Ashepoo River, South Carolina
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Airy Hall Plantation
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.81.82.83.84.34.23.832.11.10.3-0.10.212.13.244.44.33.82.91.9

Tide / Current Tables for Penny Creek, south of, Edisto River, South Edisto River, South Carolina
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Penny Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.40.51.534.45.25.44.94.13.11.90.90.1-0.10.61.93.54.85.55.44.94.13

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.