Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonboro, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday August 24, 2017 6:22 AM EDT (10:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:40AMMoonset 8:59PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 255 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 255 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will linger nearby through the end of the week. A wave of low pressure could form offshore along the stalled front Friday, as high pressure builds from the north through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonboro, SC
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location: 32.63, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 240702
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
302 am edt Thu aug 24 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will linger nearby through the end of the week. A
wave of low pressure could form offshore along the stalled
front Friday, as high pressure builds from the north through
the weekend.

Near term through today
Through sunrise: a large complex of persistent convection
across the pee dee is slowly moving south ahead of the
approaching cold front. This activity is being maintained by
increasing upper-level difluence from the right entrance region
of 250 hpa jet that is rounding the base of the long-wave
trough across the eastern united states. Parts of the complex
could brush upper charleston county and possibly far eastern
berkeley county over the next few hours as the front meander
closer. However, the bulk of this activity is expected to remain
offshore. Maintained elevated pops in this area through
daybreak. It will remain warm and humid through sunrise with
lows potentially remaining in the lower 80s over portions of the
coastal counties.

Today: the cold front will slowly meander into southeast south
carolina and southeast georgia today as the long-wave trough
amplifies across the eastern conus. The front will gradually
become intertwined with the sea breeze circulation and this
interaction coupled with increasing difluence aloft will spark
numerous showers tstms across the coastal corridor this
afternoon. Expect activity to initiate across the middle south
carolina coast where the sea breeze and front will intersect
first then zipper line down the sea breeze into southeast
georgia by late afternoon. Pwats in excess of 2 inches coupled
with moderate to strong instability will support thunderstorms
with heavy rain, but activity should remain progressive enough
to prevent widespread flooding. Modified soundings do show
dcape rising over 1000 j kg during peak heating so an isolated
severe TSTM or two can not be ruled out, especially where
mesoscale boundary collisions occur. 0-6km bulk shear is
forecast to increase to about 20-25 kt across the i-26 corridor
by 21z, but convection should be translating south of the belt
of higher shear by then.

Pops will be increased to 60-70% across the central and
coastal portions with pops tapering off to 30-40% across far
inland areas. Highs should warm into the lower-mid 90s before
the onset of convection with the warmest conditions occurring
across interior southeast georgia. Heat indices should peak
103-106 degrees for a few hours, but should remain below 110
heat advisory criteria.

Short term tonight through Sunday
Tonight: the cold front will gradually push south overnight and
should be near the altamaha river by sunrise Friday. The risk
for isolated to scattered showers tstms will translate south
with the front. Breezy conditions should develop along the
beaches after midnight as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten in response to the initial development of an inland
wedge. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the upper
70s along the georgia coast.

Friday through Sunday: progress of the front through the
southern forecast area will be slow Friday. Greatest
precipitation chances will generally shift east and ultimately
into the coastal waters along with the front as surface
pressures rise behind the front. Near-normal temperatures are
expected. The front will stall well offshore late Saturday.

Model guidance continues to indicate low pressure may begin to
form on the tail end of the stalled front off the coast of
florida by this time. Locally, a less active day looks likely,
with greatest potential for precipitation primarily confined to
the coastal waters, though some shower thunderstorm activity
near the coast is possible. Temperatures will likely be just
below normal values. By Sunday, ample disagreement exists
between models on the evolution of the low pressure off the
coast, though it is expected to track northeast along the
atlantic coast. Local impacts will heavily depend on the
strength, size, and exact location and track of this feature. At
this time, marine and coastal zones appear to be the most
affected, with most probable impacts mainly gradient winds and
some potential for enhanced rip current risk at area beaches.

Some enhancement of tidal levels is also possible.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Large uncertainty in the forecast will persist through this period
given wide variations in the initial location, track and speed, and
even vertical structure of the low pressure system off the coast.

Surface pressures will likely be falling by late Sunday as the low
pressure strengthens and tracks to the northeast closer to the
forecast area. In addition, larger uncertainty exists with the
evolution of the remains of harvey. Nonetheless, a cloudy and
potentially unsettled period appears possible. Daytime warming will
likely be moderated by cloud cover and precipitation, holding highs
in the mid-80s. By early Tuesday, deeper moisture may provide
greater coverage of convection, but model solutions diverge
considerably by this time, increasing forecast uncertainty.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Primary concerns:
* TSTM timing impacts at both kchs and ksav today.

Vfr this morning. There is a low, but non-zero risk for an
isolated shower TSTM impacting either terminal next few hours,
but any impacts will be brief as transient cells push through.

Risk for TSTM impacts will increase this afternoon as a weak
cold front settles into the region and interacts with the
afternoon sea breeze. The greatest coverage of showers tstms
looks to set up across the coastal corridor, thus have
introduce tempo groups at both terminals for MVFR vsbys this
afternoon to trend. Best chances will be 19-21z at kchs and
20-23z at ksav. Limited conditions to MVFR for now, but ifr or
lower conditions will be possible. The need for ifr or lower
will be reassessed for the 12z TAF cycle.

Extended aviation outlook: mainlyVFR. Thunderstorms may
result in short periods of flight restrictions, mainly each
afternoon evening.

Marine
Today: nocturnal surging across the water early this morning
will weaken by sunrise. Southwest winds will gradually back to
the south this afternoon as a cold front approaches and the
afternoon sea breeze develops. Winds look to peak 10-15 kt with
seas 2-3 ft.

Tonight: a cold front will slowly work south across the waters
after midnight as inland high pressure begins to wedge down into
the south carolina midlands. Winds should range from 10-15 kt
for much of the night, but should increase closer to 15-20 kt over
the charleston county waters by daybreak Friday in response to
a tightening pressure gradient. Seas will average 2-3 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: flow will veer northeast by early Friday and
strengthen through early next week as high pressure builds while low
pressure appears poised to develop along the offshore cold front.

Winds and seas will steadily increase from Friday night through
Monday, with small craft advisory conditions appearing increasingly
likely by Saturday. As the pressure gradient continues to tighten,
some isolated gusts to near gale strength are within the realm of
possibility, especially later in the weekend. The low pressure
system appears poised to cross over or near our coastal waters early
next week, but considerable uncertainty continues to vex the
forecast.

Equipment
The temperature and dew point sensors at the downtown
charleston observation site (kcxm) could periodically fail.

Parts are on order and technicians will attempt to resolve the
problem once they arrive.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 5 mi98 min Calm 80°F 1011 hPa76°F
41033 24 mi75 min WSW 16 G 21 85°F 1010.4 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 31 mi83 min S 5.1 G 8 78°F 1011.1 hPa (-0.6)74°F
CHTS1 31 mi53 min S 1.9 G 4.1 82°F 87°F1010.9 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 46 mi75 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 85°F1010.4 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 47 mi53 min WSW 4.1 G 6 80°F 86°F1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC17 mi87 minSSW 410.00 miFair78°F77°F97%1010.7 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC17 mi28 minSW 57.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1010.5 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC22 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmW4W3W6NW5NW6W5SW4S9
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2 days agoCalmN4NE6NE7CalmCalmW7W3CalmCalmN8CalmN4N4CalmNE3NE5CalmCalmN5CalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Airy Hall Plantation, Ashepoo River, South Carolina
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Airy Hall Plantation
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Thu -- 12:13 AM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.94.74.13.120.8-0-0.20.41.52.73.84.44.64.23.52.51.40.4-00.31.22.53.6

Tide / Current Tables for Penny Creek, south of, Edisto River, South Edisto River, South Carolina
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Penny Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:22 AM EDT     6.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:54 PM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
665.44.43.11.70.5-0.2-0.112.74.35.45.75.44.73.72.41.10.2-00.82.34

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.