Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Folly Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:45PM Thursday January 24, 2019 2:28 AM EST (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 10:01AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1235 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves building 1 to 2 ft. Rain with a slight chance of tstms late. Rain may be heavy at times with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming W 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Rain with a slight chance of tstms in the morning. Rain may be heavy at times early with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt.
Sat night..NW winds 5 kt.
Sun..N winds 5 kt.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 54 degrees.
AMZ300 1235 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A strong cold front will sweep through the region late tonight and move offshore Thursday morning. High pressure will then return through the weekend. Another cold front could impact the region by Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Folly Beach, SC
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location: 32.66, -79.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 240530
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1230 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front will sweep through the region late tonight
and move offshore Thursday morning. High pressure will then
return through the weekend. Another cold front could impact the
region by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Rains were spreading into the forecast area to the west of i-95
shortly after midnight. The forecast remains on track with
categorical pops and breezy to windy conditions.

Guidance shows an impressive coupling of the right entrance
region of the upper jet with a region of mid-level instability
that is progged to move out of the northeast gulf of mexico and
into the local area late. This setup should support a line of
strongly forced embedded convection within the larger rain
shield with the potential for a few elevated tstms. While
severe weather does not appear likely at this time given the
lack of meaningful surface-based instability, a few strong,
convectively induced wind gusts of 45-55 mph could occur given
the impressive wind fields that are in place. These could down
an isolated tree or two. Even strong low-level jetting ahead of
the rain shield itself could yield wind gusts 30-40 mph at
times, especially along the coastal counties. The need for a
wind advisory can not be completely ruled out.

Temperatures will hold steady and or slowly rise overnight, then
begin to fall across the far west as the cold front enters the
forecast area. Lows will range from the upper 50s west of i-95
to the lower 60s at the coast, but these values will occur at
various periods through the night.

Lake winds: a marginal lake wind advisory is in place for lake
moultrie. Cold lake waters should keep conditions largely below
20 kt, but gusty conditions appears likely around the
lakeshore. This will change Thursday morning as cold air
advection initiates with the passage of the cold front.

Short term 6 am this morning through Saturday
Thursday and Thursday night: all of the active weather in the short
term period will take place Thursday morning as a strong cold front
pushes off the coast. Model guidance is in good agreement with the
cold front and its line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
aligned directly across the middle of the forecast area just after
sunrise. The line of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms
will quickly move off the coast and land areas should be completely
precipitation free by noon. The window for any strong to marginally
severe storms will be only a couple of hours long, primarily for the
charleston tri-county region. Given the time of day and lack of
instability, the threat will be low. However, the background wind
field is quite impressive and strong gusty winds are expected along
and just ahead of the line. In fact, we could end up needing a wind
advisory along the coast for a few hours to account for wind gusts
up to 40 mph. Overall, the front and general setup looks quite
similar to this past Saturday night and Sunday morning. Skies will
clear through the afternoon hours and temperatures will hold nearly
steady from about mid morning onward. Highs will occur around or
just after sunrise ahead of the front with temperatures topping out
in the mid 60s. Winds will remain gusty through the afternoon, with
westerly winds topping out in the 20-25 mph range. Overnight, clear
and cold with lows falling into the low 30s inland to the mid upper
30s at the coast.

Friday through Saturday: high pressure will prevail across the
region through Saturday. The forecast is dry thanks to precipitable
water values falling to as low as 0.10" during the period.

Temperatures will be below normal, with highs in the low to mid 50s
and lows falling into the 20s for much of the area Friday night.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Dry weather and moderating temperatures expected Saturday night
through Tuesday as high pressure gradually shifts east. A mostly
dry cold front will sweep through Tuesday night, followed by a
considerable cool down.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Conditions will deteriorate overnight as a large band of rain
moves ahead of a cold front moves across the terminals. Ifr
conditions appear likely with localized vsbys dropping below
alternate minimums. Rain is expected to reach kchs by 09z and
ksav 08z. Gusty winds are likely overnight and may could as high
as 30 kt. The cold front will clear the terminals after
daybreak withVFR conditions returning by mid-late morning.

West winds will be gusty at times today, decreasing around
sunset.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions will prevail.

Marine
The colder atlantic shelf waters are having a big impact on
mixing profiles this evening with significantly varying
conditions noted at 41004 versus 41008 and the nearshore pilot
boats. Winds will increase, but any risk for gale force gusts
should be confined to 15-20 nm over the nearshore zones and
possibly near the beaches themselves. A better gale potential
exists beyond 40 nm in the georgia offshore zone where water
temperatures are in the upper 60s.

Tonight: hazardous conditions expected as a strong low-level jet
moves across the area ahead of a cold front which will be nearing
the coast toward daybreak. We think the the best prospects for gale
force gusts near 35 knots will be near the warmest waters of the
gulf stream and thus have gale warnings for a portion of the waters
with solid small craft advisories elsewhere. However, all waters
could see gale force wind gusts, especially associated with strong
showers and thunderstorms late tonight. Lastly, there is a small
risk of sea fog this evening ahead of the front as low-level
moisture increases but before winds increase substantially.

Thursday through Monday: strong winds and dangerous marine
conditions are expected for the first part of Thursday morning as a
strong cold front moves through the local waters. Gale warnings are
in effect everywhere other than the nearshore georgia waters and the
charleston harbor. Once the front moves through, conditions should
quickly improve by late morning such that the warnings will expire
and be replaced with small craft advisories. Westerly winds will
remain elevated Thursday afternoon and night, and seas will steadily
decrease as well. The small craft advisory could linger in the outer
georgia waters into Friday morning, but all others should come to an
end Thursday night. Thereafter, high pressure will build in and
prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas are expected to remain
below critical thresholds through that time.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... Lake wind advisory from 4 am to 10 am est this morning for
scz045.

Marine... Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for amz350-352-374.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for amz330-
354.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 2 mi88 min S 15 G 16 61°F 1011.6 hPa (-2.8)61°F
CHTS1 8 mi46 min S 17 G 22 66°F 54°F1010.8 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 19 mi80 min S 16 G 19 62°F 55°F1011.9 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi103 min SSE 4.1 63°F 1011 hPa61°F
41033 37 mi80 min S 16 G 19 61°F 55°F1010.7 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 45 mi38 min S 23 G 27 65°F13 ft1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC5 mi33 minS 15 G 202.50 miFog/Mist66°F64°F94%1010.8 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC18 mi32 minS 20 G 268.00 miOvercast and Breezy68°F63°F84%1010.2 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC18 mi33 minS 135.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F94%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6N5NE3NE3CalmCalmSE12SE12
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1 day agoNE8NE8NE6N5NE8NE10NE10NE12NE11E10NE11E6E11E9E11E11NE9NE8
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2 days agoNW8NW8NW7N8NE8N11N10N12N10N13N13
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N126N9N8N6NE4NE6NE7NE8NE5NE8NE8NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Island (outer coast), South Carolina
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Folly Island (outer coast)
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Thu -- 03:56 AM EST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:24 AM EST     6.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 PM EST     5.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.30.7-0.5-1-0.40.92.64.25.465.953.51.80.3-0.6-0.60.21.534.25.15.4

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 01:41 AM EST     -2.99 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:40 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     2.25 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:11 PM EST     -3.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:45 PM EST     1.86 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-2.8-3-2.2-0.90.51.62.22.11.81.20.1-1.3-2.4-3-2.7-1.7-0.40.81.71.81.61.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.