Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Folly Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:35PM Monday March 25, 2019 8:59 PM EDT (00:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:44PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 546 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt early, diminishing to 10 kt after Sunset, then becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 62 degrees.
AMZ300 546 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will cross the region tonight followed by a strong cold front Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the north and persist into Saturday. A cold front may affect the area late next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Folly Beach, SC
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location: 32.66, -79.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 260056
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
856 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will cross the region tonight followed by a strong
cold front Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the
north and persist into Saturday. A cold front may affect the
area late next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
At 26 0045z, a nearly solid line of showers tstms stretched
across central georgia and into portions of the midlands. The
line is moving steadily east and will enter the far western
zones over the next few hours. Although goes-e glm products and
standard terrestrial lightning networks show quite a bit of
lightning associated with this convection, the atmosphere
across southeast south carolina and southeast georgia remains
fairly stable despite a slow recovery of surface dewpoints. The
26 00z kchs RAOB was less than impressive thermodynamically with
considerable cin, a k-index of 15 and very little in the way of
either surface-based or elevated instability in place. The lack
of any meaningful thermodynamics across the region will likely
be augmented by increasing kinematics ahead of an approaching
shortwave currently digging across western georgia per goes-e
mid-level water vapor imagery. Therefore, expect only a slow
weakening of the approaching line over the next several hours
before the line undergoes a steadier weakening trend as it
approaches the coast. Plan to increase pops to 80-90% across the
far interior and maintain pops at 70% across the coastal
counties. Thunderstorm probabilities will also be raised to the
chance category across the far interior.

An isolated strong TSTM with gusty winds and small hail can not
be completely ruled out given the very cold temperatures aloft
(500 hpa temperatures around -17c and wbz heights just over
8kft).

Once the initial cold front pushes through, a localized col
region could develop across the charleston tri-county area ahead
of the secondary, backdoor cold front. There will be a few hours
where pockets of fog could develop. Confidence is not high
enough to include a mention in the gridded or text forecast
products just yet, but this will have to be watched carefully.

Any fog could lift by sunrise as winds begin to surge with the
passage of the backdoor cold front.

Lows will range from the mid 50s inland to around 60 at the
beaches, although locally cooler temperatures will be possible
where corridors of heavier rainfall occur.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
A backdoor cold front will drop into the area Tuesday morning from
the north and then continue to push south through the day. Moisture
is confined to the lower levels, so think any rain accompanying the
front will be fairly light. Accumulations should be a few hundredths
of an inch on average. Temperatures will be much cooler than Monday,
remaining in the 60s, except around 70 close to the altamaha. Lows
Tuesday night will range from upper 30s inland to low mid 40s at the
coast. Elevated winds will preclude any frost.

Cool high pressure will build in wake of the front, providing quiet
and dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. One forecast concern
is the potential for frost Wednesday night into early Thursday with
lows dropping into the mid upper 30s far inland. Winds will be
fairly light, and these conditions could support some patchy frost.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Unseasonably warm and mostly dry through the period. A cold
front may move through late Sunday or Sunday night though it is
currently unclear how much precipitation will accompany it.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions giving way to an approaching line of showers with
isolated tstms by late evening. The line is expected to move
through both terminals in 03-06z timeframe bringing a risk for
MVFR vsbys cigs. The risk for tstms looks to small at this point
to include a mention, but trends will be monitored for a
possible amendment. Winds will turn west and diminish behind the
line. There is a brief window for some fog to potentially impact
kchs between 07-10z as winds diminish and low-level moisture
pools ahead of a backdoor cold front. Best chances look to
remain just west of the terminal so will not include at this
time. Winds will turn north and eventually northeast behind the
front as it drop south through the terminals. Low-end MVFR to
ifr CIGS are likely in the post-frontal airmass, which will
linger for much of the day Tuesday. Will limit CIGS to ovc012
for now.

Extended aviation outlook: sub-vfr ceilings will improve Tuesday
afternoon evening.VFR expected thereafter.

Marine
Tonight: winds have really surged in the charleston harbor over
the past few hours with the shutes folly and ft. Sumter weatherflow
sensors reporting winds near 20 kt. Sent an updated forecast to
show 15-20 kt through sunset.

Southwest flow will continue into the evening hours
with stronger flow beyond 20 nm off the charleston county coast.

Speeds will mainly be below 15 kt with seas 2 to 3 ft. A cold
front will move off the coast late tonight with wind directions
veering offshore with
Tuesday through Saturday: marine conditions will deteriorate on
Tuesday behind a back door cold front that will drop through the
area. Small craft advisory conditions will develop across all
coastal waters by late afternoon. The charleston harbor could reach
criteria, however it appears marginal during the daytime hours. A
more sure bet would be late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will hold
off on an advisory for now and reevaluate with next forecast cycle.

The period of strongest winds will be the 06z-18z Wednesday time
frame as 1000 mb geostrophic flow reaches 45-50 knots. A gale watch
has been hoisted for the outer ga waters where confidence is
highest. This may need to be expanded to at least some of the
nearshore zones eventually. Winds will begin to improve later
Wednesday, however it will take longer for seas to subside,
especially in the outer ga waters.

Rip currents: there will be an enhanced risk for rip currents mid-
week as elevated northeast winds and swell impact the beaches.

Tides coastal flooding
Between strong high pressure building from the north and low
pressure developing off the coast, strong northeast winds will
create elevated tide levels along the coast mid-week. While
astronomical factors do not favor tidal flooding, probabilistic
guidance depicts a low chance for minor salt water flooding,
mainly with the Wednesday morning high tide.

Equipment
The kclx radar remains out of service until further notice.

Additional parts are on order and the radar will be serviced
again on Tuesday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for amz352.

Gale watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
for amz374.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm to 11 pm edt Tuesday for amz374.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for amz350.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Tuesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for amz354.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 2 mi59 min SW 14 G 15 64°F 1013.6 hPa (-0.8)60°F
CHTS1 8 mi47 min 66°F 62°F1012.9 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 19 mi51 min SW 14 G 19 64°F 61°F1013.2 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi74 min S 1.9 67°F 1013 hPa60°F
41033 37 mi51 min SSW 12 G 19 64°F 62°F1013 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 45 mi49 min SW 21 G 25 71°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC5 mi64 minSSW 8 G 139.00 miFair66°F59°F78%1013.2 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC18 mi2.1 hrsSSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F54°F59%1012.5 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC18 mi84 minSSW 10 G 159.00 miFair66°F57°F73%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S5S4S4S3CalmCalmS6S5S5S6S6SW9SW12
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1 day agoS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE8S10
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2 days agoSW7SW6W7W8W5W5W7N7N5NE4CalmNE4NE9E9NE11NE10NE843CalmCalmS6S9S6

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Island (outer coast), South Carolina
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Folly Island (outer coast)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.95.54.431.50.3-0.10.31.42.63.74.554.842.81.60.50.10.31.22.53.74.7

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     -2.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM EDT     1.67 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:54 PM EDT     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     1.55 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.5-1.7-2.5-2.7-2-10.31.31.71.41.10.5-0.3-1.2-1.8-2.1-1.7-0.900.91.51.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.