Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Folly Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:18PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:55 AM EST (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 1:10AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 304 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..Variable winds 5 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 5 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 kt.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 63 degrees.
AMZ300 304 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will dominate the pattern through the weekend. Another cold front may move through the region by mid week, followed by high pressure through mid to late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Folly Beach, SC
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location: 32.66, -79.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 170846
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
346 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will dominate the pattern through the weekend.

Another cold front may move through the region by mid week,
followed by high pressure through mid to late week.

Near term through tonight
Broad surface high pressure was blanketing ga and the carolinas
this morning. Skies remain clear and winds were mainly calm. Temps
were in the mid to upper 30s most areas and despite an otherwise
strong radiational cooling setup, surface dew points remain elevated
and the potential for freezing temps looks poor outside of normally
colder rural inland locations. No changes to our frost advisory
this morning. Some near-coastal spots may see patches of shallow
fog toward sunrise.

High pressure will continue across the region as deep layered
dry air and broad subsidence in place. Temps will moderate from
Friday's afternoon readings that generally remained in the
upper 50s many locations, only touching 60 degrees in a few
spots. Low level thickness values and abundant sunshine should
result in readings in the mid to upper 60s during peak warming
this afternoon. Winds will be quite light today, mostly onshore
as the high settles to our north.

Tonight: dry weather will persist. Temps should not be as cold
since low level dew points are forecast to remain elevated in
the low to mid 40s well inland to near 50 degrees along the
coast. A weak coastal trough offshore will develop. The onset of
developing isentropic ascent should result in an expansion of
late night stratocumulus into the forecast area but 850-500 mb
condensation pressure deficit progs appear too dry for any
sprinkles or light showers through 6 am on Sunday along the ga
coast.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
Primarily dry conditions are anticipated through at least Tuesday as
surface high pressure persists under nearly zonal flow aloft.

Reasonable model agreement that a weak ripple in the upper level
pattern will migrate west to east over the forecast area late Sunday
into Monday with a coincident coastal trough located just offshore.

Precipitable water values approaching and possibly exceeding an inch
will migrate towards the shoreline during this period, with the bulk
of this moisture occurring in the 900-800 mb layer. The latest
synoptic models agree that 700-300 mb mean relative humidity levels
will remain relatively low, in the 30-40 percent range, as well as a
relatively dry layer persisting below the apparent cloud level. All
things considered, the models might be overproducing precipitation
during the late Sunday through Monday period, but slight chance pops
will be maintained in the forecast, primarily for southern coastal
and marine zones.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
A likely dry surface cold front looks to cross the forecast area
late Tuesday or very early Wednesday, followed by additional high
pressure which should persist into late next week. Model divergence
increases by the end of the week. Onshore flow and increasing
moisture levels will set the stage and a developing coastal trough
or possible surface low could provide the forcing for precipitation
production heading into the weekend.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr through 06z Sunday.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
both terminals through mid-next-week, although brief periods of
flight restrictions will be possible late Sunday through early
Monday due to shower activity.

Marine
Through tonight, winds will be below 15 kt and seas 2-3 ft near
shore and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm off the ga coast. High pressure
will settle north of the waters and this should ensure the flow
becomes and remains northeast. The development of a weak coastal
trough late tonight may result in a few light showers over ga
waters toward dawn on Sunday.

Relatively benign conditions are anticipated through mid-next-week
over marine zones with high pressure remaining as the dominant
influence. An increase in cloud cover and possibly shower activity
is possible primarily late Sunday into Monday as a weak coastal
trough develops just offshore while an upper level weakness
propagates over or near the forecast area. Expect winds to peak in
the 10 to 15 knot range with seas averaging 2 to 4 feet. Forecast
uncertainty begins to decrease late in the week as model guidance
diverges, with increasing winds and seas possible as surface
pressure falls.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Frost advisory until 8 am est this morning for gaz087-088-
099>101-115.

Sc... Frost advisory until 8 am est this morning for scz040-042>045-
047.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term... Jmc
long term... Jmc
aviation... Jmc
marine... Jmc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 2 mi55 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 49°F 1022.2 hPa (+1.0)44°F
CHTS1 8 mi37 min N 1.9 G 1.9 47°F 63°F1022.1 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi70 min Calm 39°F 1022 hPa39°F
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 45 mi35 min NNE 7.8 G 12 73°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC5 mi60 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist37°F37°F100%1022 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC18 mi80 minN 08.00 miFair37°F37°F100%1022 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC18 mi2 hrsNNW 310.00 miFair38°F37°F97%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4W5NW8NW10W6NW7NW4W6W6W4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN11NW9NW15NW12NW9W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Folly River, north, Folly Island, South Carolina
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Folly River
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:09 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:10 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM EST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:39 PM EST     5.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.44.14.754.84.13.12.21.51.21.52.33.34.14.85.25.34.83.82.71.7111.5

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor, off Fort Sumter, South Carolina Current (expired 1996-12-31)
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Charleston Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM EST     1.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:09 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:33 PM EST     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:10 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:17 PM EST     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.90.5-0.2-1-1.5-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.10.81.31.31.10.70.1-0.7-1.5-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.