Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sullivan's Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:12PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 955 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt. Patchy fog.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt early, becoming E 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 kt. A chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 58 degrees.
AMZ300 955 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A backdoor cold front will shift south of the area this evening. A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday into Saturday evening. A cold front will move offshore Sunday and be followed by high pressure into mid week. Low pressure will impact the area late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sullivan's Island, SC
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location: 32.77, -79.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 230127
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
827 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will shift south of the area this
evening. A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday
into Saturday evening. A cold front will move offshore Sunday
and be followed by high pressure into mid week. Low pressure
will impact the area late next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Minor tweaks again, mainly for temps based on latest trends.

Previous discussion...

the backdoor cold front is progressing a little quicker than we
previously had depicted in the grids, so we have made several
adjustments to account for the faster pace. This includes a
noticeably cooler trend to temps in many areas, and also minor
tweaks to overnight lows which will be a little cooler far
north. There is also more pinching along much of the coast and
thus winds are a little stronger and shifting to the northeast
and east. A batch of sea fog has pushed onshore from southern
beaufort and jasper county south into chatham and bryan county,
and will move south into liberty and mcintosh with time this
evening. There looks to be too much wind for any dense fog
advisory. We made minor tweaks to the chance of showers based on
recent and anticipated trends.

Discussion as of 431 pm...

this evening and tonight: aloft, a large ridge of high pressure
centered over the western atlantic will extend over the
southeast united states in advance of a trough of low pressure
advancing over the central united states. At the sfc, a back-
door cold front will continue to advance south through the area,
likely reaching the altamaha river by early evening. Given the
setup, the main issue will be low clouds entering the area
behind the front and the potential for a few showers overnight.

Latest satellite imagery and sfc obs indicate the backdoor front is
currently pushing slowly through southern areas of southeast south
carolina and into southeast georgia late this afternoon with a
well defined wind shift in its wake. South of the front, temps
remain warm (low mid 80s) and have met record-breaking levels
for today at the sav airport (see previous record in climate
section below). Expect warm temps to persist for the next hour
or two before cooling with a more typical diurnal curve
initially, then at a more substantial pace once the cold front
pushes through the area. Once the front has moved south of the
altamaha river this evening early tonight, the main focus will
be on the possibility of a few showers overnight. Latest
guidance suggests a fair amount of isentropic lift developing
over and north of the cold front tonight, but a northeast sfc
wind will bring cooler conditions and lower dewpt temps, thus
suggesting overall precip coverage will be limited and light.

However, as the wedge of high pressure builds behind the front,
low stratus should become widespread from north to south.

Despite clouds, the cooler northeast sfc wind will help lower
temps into low mid 50s for most locations. A few locations could
remain around 60 degrees near the altamaha river in southeast
georgia.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Saturday: a warm front will lift north through the area during the
day into the early evening hours as the inland in-situ wedge
beings to break down in response to the transient parent high
shifting offshore the mid-atlantic states. As is typical with
eroding wedges, high temperatures will highly correlated to how
quickly the wedge erodes. Generally took a blend of the warmer
gfs with the cooler NAM to construct afternoon highs, but there is a
big bust potential here in some areas. Highs look to range from the
lower-mid 60s for areas adjacent to the southern midlands and pee
dee to the upper 70s in the corridor of interior southeast georgia
bounded by i-16 and i-95. Guidance shows some weak isentropic assent
along ahead of the warm front, but high condensation deficits
suggest measurable rainfall is unlikely. Saturday night looks quite
warm for late february as strong low-level jetting ahead of an
approaching cold front should keep the boundary layer well mixed.

Lows will only drop into the lower-mid 60s. Isolated showers are
possible overnight as pre-frontal warm air advection isentropic
assent strengthens with the low-level jet. The cold front looks to
approach the far western zones by daybreak Sunday.

Sunday: a strong cold front is poised to push west-east across the
area as its supporting shortwave digs across the great lakes and
ohio valley. Moisture transport along ahead of the front looks
pretty solid with southerly pre-frontal trajectories favoring
moisture advection off the gulf of mexico. Model cross-sections
suggest deep-layered dpva omega associated with the passing
shortwave and the right entrance region of the upper jet will pass
well to the north, but there is strong low-level omega signal from
the boundary later to h8 right along the front surface. This
suggests lift and associated rainfall will be primary confined to
the front itself and should manifest itself by a somewhat broken line
of showers moving from west-east during the day. Pops will be
confined to 60% area wide for now. Higher pops may eventually be
needed, especially across the far interior and the charleston tri-
county area where the low-level omega signal and moisture transport
is the strongest. Highs will warm into the mid-upper 70s with
temperatures falling as rain spreads east. Expect clearing and rain-
free conditions Sunday night with lows ranging from the lower 40s
well inland to the upper 40s at the coast.

Monday: high pressure will extend across the region. It will be
considerably cooler with highs ranging from the mid 60s north
to upper 60s south; still slightly above climatological normals for
most areas.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Moderate to high confidence through Tuesday with low confidence
thereafter. Dry high pressure will likely persist through at least
Tuesday before a coastal trough and or upper disturbance possibly
bring a chance of rain back to the forecast through mid week and
eventually a low pressure system later in the week. So chances are
pretty good that at least a portion of the mid-late week period will
be unsettled but timing and rain amounts are quite uncertain.

Temperatures should be near to above normal through at least
Wednesday before possibly dropping below normal.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Behind a backdoor cold front and within a wedge of high pressure
behind the front, considerable moisture will remain stuck
beneath a strong inversion tonight and most if not all of
Saturday. This will result in mainly ifr conditions at both ksav
and kchs, and possibly lifr at times tonight into Saturday
morning, with an optimistic forecast of MVFR conditions
Saturday afternoon. However, ifr could certainly continue.

Extended aviation outlook: restrictions likely Saturday night
into Sunday afternoon at kchs ksav. Strong winds also possible
Sunday. More restrictions possible toward the middle of next
week.

Marine
Winds for the past few hours at buoy 41029 off the charleston
county coast, and those from the folly beach pier and the isle
of palms pier as high as 25-29 kt supports hoisting a small
craft advisory for the amz350 waters through 4 am. Seas will be
as high as 4 to 6 ft. The other nearshore waters currently look
to stay just shy of the advisory requirement.

Previous discussion...

since the backdoor cold front is progressing faster than
anticipated, we have had to adjust winds to the NE and E and at
slightly higher speeds than previous. Conditions will be close
to advisory thresholds on the waters within 20 nm of the
shoreline, but the coverage of 25 knot gusts and 6 foot seas
currently looks too limited in frequency and areal coverage to
hoist a small craft advisory. We'll continue to monitor. Also,
the area of sea fog has grown in coverage and will impact a good
part of the amz352, amz354 and amz374 waters at least early
tonight. Since the winds increase behind the front this should
prevent the sea fog from becoming dense enough that it would
require a dense fog advisory.

Discussion as of 431 pm...

this evening and tonight: latest webcams indicate a brief
period of dense fog behind a backdoor cold front shifting
through the area. Behind the front, high pressure will
strengthen with winds becoming primarily northeast and gusting
to 15-20 kt at times. These winds along with lower sfc dewpt
temps behind the front will likely put an end to sea fog during
the overnight period. Until then, areas of fog (patchy dense)
remain in the forecast over southern nearshore waters of south
carolina waters and nearshore georgia waters into the evening
before improving conditions occur early tonight. Seas will
slowly build through the overnight period, peaking up to 3-5 ft,
highest in northern south carolina waters.

Saturday through Monday: solid northeast winds Saturday morning will
gradually veer southerly through the day as a warm front lifts
north. Southwest winds will increase to 15-20 kt Saturday night as
pre-frontal low-level jetting intensifies. Cool shelf waters will
limit winds, especially over the georgia nearshore waters.

By Sunday, winds and seas look to reach marginal small craft
advisory thresholds over the georgia offshore and charleston county
legs with winds 20-25 kt and seas 4-6 ft, while the other legs look
to fall just below this. Winds will veer west and eventually
northwest Sunday afternoon and Sunday night behind the cold front.

Could see some patchy sea fog develop Saturday afternoon across the
georgia waters and spread into the south carolina waters Saturday
night. Winds look to be a bit too strong Saturday night to support
widespread development, but this will have to be watched. If any sea
fog develops, it will likely linger in some fashion until fropa
Sunday afternoon. Benign weather will prevail Monday through
Wednesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Favorable northeast winds of 15-20 kt will continue to push
water into charleston harbor and onshore of the south carolina
coast early tonight. This will lead to a continuation of the
already elevated tides that have been running around 1.1 to 1.3
ft mllw above predicted levels through at least the next high
tide cycle at 1030-1045 pm. As a result we have hoisted a
coastal flood advisory for coastal charleston, coastal colleton
and coastal beaufort county through midnight. Tides are expected
to peak around 7.0 to 7.2 ft mllw in charleston harbor with that
next high tide.

Climate
Record highs for february 24...

kchs: 81 2017 and previous
kcxm: 81 1930 ksav: 86 2012
record high mins for february 24...

kchs: 60 1992 and previous
kcxm: 63 2018
ksav: 64 1980

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... Coastal flood advisory until midnight est tonight for
scz048>050.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Saturday for amz350.

Near term...

short term... St
long term... Rjb
aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 1 mi29 min NNE 8 G 12
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 6 mi77 min NE 18 G 21 55°F 1025.2 hPa (+0.8)55°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 15 mi69 min NE 18 G 21 54°F 56°F1024.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi92 min NE 4.1 58°F 1025 hPa56°F
41033 43 mi69 min ENE 19 G 27 55°F 1023.4 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 47 mi27 min NNE 16 G 19 68°F7 ft1024.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi22 minNE 88.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1025.1 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi42 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist54°F53°F100%1025.1 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC12 mi81 minENE 810.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, South Carolina
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Charleston
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Fri -- 03:53 AM EST     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:10 AM EST     6.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:18 PM EST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:41 PM EST     5.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.12.40.7-0.6-1-0.41.12.84.45.565.84.73.11.40-0.8-0.60.523.64.95.75.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:24 AM EST     -3.20 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     2.23 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:39 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:46 PM EST     -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:52 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:22 PM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.3-3.1-3-2-0.60.81.92.221.60.8-0.5-1.8-2.7-2.9-2.3-1.10.21.31.91.91.71.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.