Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sullivan's Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:17PM Monday November 19, 2018 11:14 AM EST (16:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 3:02AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 926 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Rest of today..NW winds 5 kt.
Tonight..W winds 5 kt.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 62 degrees.
AMZ300 926 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will move through late Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will prevail through late in the week. Low pressure moving over or near the area this weekend will lead to unsettled weather.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sullivan's Island, SC
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location: 32.77, -79.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 191424
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
924 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move through late Tuesday, followed by high
pressure that will prevail through late in the week. Low
pressure moving over or near the area this weekend will lead to
unsettled weather.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The coastal through will continue to pull offshore today. Goes-e
visible satellite data show fog and stratus are quickly dissipating
and skies should become mostly sunny to partly cloudy over the
next few hours as a shallow cumulus field develops. Nudged highs
down a few degrees based on the latest high resolution
temperature consensus. High will range 68-73. Some data support
cooler temperatures likely due to influences from earlier
fog stratus, so this will need to be watched.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Tonight: the upstream cold front will cross the appalachians
after midnight, preceded and accompanied by a strong upper jet.

After clear or partly cloudy skies early on, this will leads to
an increase of mid and high level clouds during the overnight
period. There is enough radiational cooling early on as the
atmosphere decouples before these clouds move in, and this will
allow for lows to drop to 50-55f inland, mid and upper 50s near
the coast. A repeat of the fog is not expected.

Tuesday through Thursday: a cold front will cross the forecast
area by late Tuesday, yielding little to no precipitation
locally. Behind the front, expansive cloud cover will scour out
as drier air filters into the southeast. Dry conditions will
then prevail through the short-term period as the area remains
situated within surface high pressure with the axis of mid and
upper level ridging located over the central u.S., sliding
slowly east. Cold air advection will lead to near-normal
temperatures Tuesday dropping a few degrees below normal for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
Model guidance is becoming better aligned regarding formation of a
gulf low near the western edge of the gulf of mexico late Thursday
as mid and upper level shortwave troughing exits the desert
southwest and enters the central u.S. Guidance diverges on the
evolution of the pattern aloft heading into the weekend, but low
pressure looks increasingly likely to move east or northeast near or
over the area through the weekend, bringing another round of
unsettled weather. An additional trailing shortwave trough could
transit near the region early next week, but it remains unclear how
much moisture will be available to work with. The 19 00z GFS and
ecmwf depict widely different scenarios, increasing forecast
uncertainty late in the long term period.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Ksav: widespread low stratus and dense fog will lead to lifr
conditions at or below airfield minimums through at least 14-15z.

Vfr conditions are forecast to return by 16-17z, as the
inversion lifts and moisture scours out as the flow becomes
w-nw.

Kchs: now that the nearby coastal trough has started to shift to
the n-ne and away from the terminal, widespread stratus and areas
of fog have begun to fill in behind it. This will lead to ifr
or lifr conditions settling in (at least periodically) until
15z. It'll take until 19z however beforeVFR weather makes a
return as drier air will slowly advect in from the w-nw.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
both terminals into late week. Flight restrictions will be possible
this weekend as low pressure moves nearby.

Marine
Today: goes-e visible data and coastal webcams show fog over the
local marine area is starting to transition to low hanging
stratus. Will let the marine dense fog advisory expire at 10 am.

Otherwise, winds will be west to northwest 5-10 kt in the wake
of the departing coastal trough. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Tonight: an upstream cold front will move into the southeast
during the post-midnight period, with a relaxed westerly
gradient to prevail in advance of this feature. Winds and seas
will be no more than 10 kt and 2-4 ft, respectively.

Tuesday through Saturday: initially offshore flow will veer
northeast by Wednesday afternoon. Through mid-week, winds will
generally average 10-15 knots with seas ranging 2 to 4 feet.

Beginning Thursday afternoon, the surface pressure gradient will
tighten as the area becomes situated between a strengthening
high pressure wedge inland and coastal troughing offshore.

Probabilities are increasing that small craft advisories will be
needed beginning Thursday afternoon and then continuing into
the weekend as low pressure affects the southeast.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 1 mi45 min N 5.1 G 7 69°F 63°F1021.3 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 6 mi75 min N 5.1 G 6 62°F 1021.8 hPa (+0.6)58°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 15 mi67 min N 7.8 60°F 63°F1020.8 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi90 min NNW 1.9 61°F 1022 hPa60°F
41033 43 mi67 min Calm G 0
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 47 mi35 min NW 7.8 G 12 78°F1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi60 minNNW 34.00 miFair with Haze66°F60°F83%1021.3 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi40 minNNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds64°F60°F88%1021 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC12 mi79 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F59°F81%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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NE8NE7NE6NE9NE6CalmN4N5N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmNW3CalmNW3NW4N4NW3
1 day agoNE6E6NE6NE7E7NE6NE4CalmNE5N4N5N4N3N4CalmCalmN4N4N6N6N5N5N6NE7
2 days agoNW7NW4W6W6W4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3E5

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, South Carolina
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Charleston
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Mon -- 03:01 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM EST     5.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:53 PM EST     5.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:10 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.83.94.85.35.34.83.92.81.81.10.91.42.43.54.55.15.354.131.90.90.4

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor, off Fort Sumter, South Carolina Current (expired 1996-12-31)
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Charleston Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:58 AM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:01 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM EST     -2.06 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:20 PM EST     1.69 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.41.61.51.10.4-0.5-1.5-2-2-1.7-0.90.11.21.71.61.20.7-0.2-1.3-2-2.2-1.9-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.