Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sullivan's Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:17PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:50 AM EST (13:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:30AMMoonset 5:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 603 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..Variable winds 5 kt or less. Patchy fog this morning.
Tonight..Variable winds 5 kt.
Mon..Variable winds 5 kt. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 kt. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 kt.
Tue night..SW winds 5 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers likely.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers likely.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 53 degrees.
AMZ300 603 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail today. A weak disturbance will bring occasional unsettled weather to the area early in the week. Low pressure will pass over or near the region mid week followed by high pressure late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sullivan's Island, SC
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location: 32.77, -79.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 171123
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
623 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail today. A weak disturbance will bring
occasional unsettled weather to the area early in the week. Low
pressure will pass over or near the region mid week followed by
high pressure late in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Satellite shows cirrus increasing across the area. Increased
sky cover slightly per going trends. The risk for patchy fog
and patchy freezing fog will persist through daybreak.

High pressure will gradually shift offshore today as broad,
subtropical ridging prevails across the southeast states. Dry
conditions will persist with the stronger moisture return and
isentropic assent forecast to remain well to the west across
mississippi, alabama and western georgia in the vicinity of a
developing warm front. Subtropical moisture streaming with
origins from the eastern pacific will traverse the region
yielding varying degrees of cirrus through the day. Expect
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies to gradually give way to
mostly cloudy during the mid-late afternoon. Despite a chilly
start, highs will recover to the lower-mid 60s across southeast
south carolina with mid-upper 60s across southeast georgia;
warmest south of the i-16 corridor. The genesis of a weak, ill-
defined sea breeze circulation is possible this afternoon, which
should limit highs to the upper 50s near 60 at the beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
Tonight: a strengthening low-level jet will increase moisture
transport into the southeast u.S. Tonight surface high pressure
shifts even further offshore and the subtropical ridge buckles
south. Guidance suggests the strongest isentropic 290-295k
isentropic assent will remain to the west and north of southeast
south carolina and southeast georgia along the far eastern
fringe of a ill-defined warm front. The better rain chances will
remain displaced to the west as a result with only inland areas
being close enough to support low-end pops of 20-30% after
midnight. Coastal areas look to remain far enough to the east to
keep a rain-free forecast in tact. Although low-level jetting
will increase overnight, the onset of the nocturnal inversion
looks to occur early enough to allow for a decoupling of the
boundary layer yielding calm light winds. It will be a
considerably warmer night with lows in the lower-mid 50s.

Monday: the mid upper levels will consist of high pressure over the
bahamas in the morning, producing weak ridging over the southeast.

As the high weakens and shifts towards cuba during the day and
overnight, semi-zonal flow will develop. At the surface, a front
will stretch from roughly the lower ms valley region into
approximately central ga and mid sc in the morning, staying
stationary or barely moving to the south during the day and
overnight. A saturated air mass encompassed by ~1.75" pwats during
the day (or 2 standard deviations above normal per naefs) will
prevail. Models show the best mid upper level lift just to our west
and northwest. But even with this factored in, showers are still
expected across a good chunk of the area. Notable changes to the
forecast include the best threat of showers now encompassing our ga
counties during the day. Additionally, QPF here and elsewhere
appears to be lower, generally up to 0.1" during the day. The
forecast has been adjusted to reflect this. High temperatures should
be a few degrees above normal in our sc counties and well above
normal in our ga counties. Models indicate showers decreasing
overnight as weak high pressure starts to build in from fl. Enough
dry stable air appears to make it into the area, so we have showers
dissipating in the evening and then a dry forecast late at night.

The exception is for the charleston tri-county area, where some
remnant light showers may persist until daybreak.

Cloudy skies and a warm air mass will keep low temperatures well
above normal.

Tuesday: the mid upper levels will consist of zonal flow over the
southeast. At the surface, weak high pressure located over or just
offshore of fl will stretch into our area during the morning. At the
same time, a stationary front will linger to our west and northwest.

The high will retreat from our area during the day, allowing the
front to approach. Low pressure will also start developing somewhere
along the lower ms valley overnight, helping to intensify the front
as it approaches our area. Moisture will remain in place with ~1.5"
pwats. Once again, models show the best mid upper level lift to our
west. A notable change to the forecast is the high appears to keep
most of our area dry during the day, except maybe a few showers very
far inland. The shower threat increases overnight, with the highest
pops far inland. Temperatures on this day should be the warmest for
the upcoming week. But no records are in immediate jeopardy.

Wednesday: the mid upper levels will consist of zonal flow over the
southeast in the morning. Meanwhile, a disturbance over the
lower mid ms valley will move eastward, passing mainly to our north
late in the day. At the surface, low pressure located over the lower
ms valley in the morning will rapidly move eastward, passing over or
just to our north during the day. The disturbance and a jet streak
passing overhead could help enhance the lift. There is some
instability in place ahead of the low, so a few thunderstorms are
not out of the question. But opted to keep them out of the forecast
for now, mainly to match with our neighboring offices. Decent
moisture will be in place with pwats approaching ~1.5" (or 2
standard deviations above normal per naefs). Expect showers to
overspread the area from west to east during the day, with the
highest pops far inland. Locally heavy rainfall is not out of the
question. Temperatures will be well above normal.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
The low will move offshore Wednesday night, with showers possibly
lasting into the first part of Thursday. The second part of Thursday
and all of Friday should be dry. A front slowly approaches from the
west on Saturday.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Primary concerns:
* MVFR CIGS late tonight
vfr today. The strongest isentropic lift is progged to remain
west of the region tonight. However, as moisture increases, the
risk for lower CIGS will increase, especially from sunset on.

There will be a risk for MVFR CIGS by late evening. Guidance is
mixed on timing and exactly how low CIGS will go overnight. Will
cap CIGS at low-endVFR thresholds for now.

Extended aviation outlook: an unsettled weather pattern will bring
periods of flight restrictions Monday through Wednesday. It's
possible for more prolonged flight restrictions during this same
time period, depending on the synoptic and mesoscale setup.VFR
returns on Thursday.

Marine
Today: charleston harbor pilot boat reported patches of fog in
the charleston harbor. The risk for patchy fog will linger
through daybreak. A marine weather statement has been issued to
address this. Light wind regime will remain in place across the
waters today with variable winds. Seas will average 1 ft or
less nearshore waters and 1-2 ft offshore waters.

Tonight: south to soutwest winds will prevail with speeds 10 kt
or less. Winds could veer more westerly between the santee river
and the charleston harbor entrance just before daybreak. Seas
will average 1-2 ft nearshore waters, but build to 2-3 ft over
the georgia offshore waters.

Monday through Tuesday: not much concern regarding winds and seas
within a fairly light pressure pattern, but there is some chance for
sea fog Monday night into Tuesday as surfaces winds veer to the
south and southwest and higher dew point air moves in.

Wednesday through Friday: low pressure traveling through the
southeast region during mid week will pass near the northern waters
Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by an inland wedge
late in the week. There will be an increase in winds and seas in
response to the nearby low and due to the resulting pinching in its
wake. But for now winds and seas look to stay below any advisory
conditions. T-storms could be possible during the middle of the week
during this synoptic pattern.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 1 mi50 min Calm G 1.9 43°F 53°F1026.2 hPa (+0.9)
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 6 mi50 min N 2.9 G 2.9 46°F 1026.8 hPa (+1.2)44°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 15 mi42 min NNE 3.9 G 7.8 46°F 55°F1025.9 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi65 min Calm 36°F 1026 hPa36°F
41033 43 mi42 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 48°F 54°F1025.6 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 47 mi50 min NNE 3.9 G 7.8 57°F 72°F1025.5 hPa (+0.7)50°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi55 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist36°F33°F93%1026.4 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi55 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1026.4 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC12 mi54 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist34°F34°F100%1026.2 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE84SE334S9SE6S7S5S4SW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW4W4W8SW9W11W9W11W7W6SW6W7W8W9W10NW8NW9NW6NW10NW6NW8NW5NW5NW4N6
2 days agoW9W10W9SW7SW7SW8W5SW9SW5S7S5SW4SW6S4SW6SW5SW4SW5W4W5CalmSW3CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Johnson, South Carolina
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Fort Johnson
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     5.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:27 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:12 PM EST     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-00.51.73.24.45.35.75.54.73.52.10.90.20.212.33.54.44.84.63.92.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:48 AM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:57 AM EST     -2.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:59 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:00 PM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:08 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:41 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:03 PM EST     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-0.40.61.51.61.51.30.8-0.2-1.3-2.2-2.6-2.1-1.201.11.51.310.5-0.3-1.1-1.8-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.