Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sullivan's Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:41PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:44 PM EST (02:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 5:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 701 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt late this evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 56 degrees.
AMZ300 701 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A powerful storm system will impact the area tonight into Sunday, followed by cold, dry high pressure early next week. A strong cold front will affect the area Wednesday night into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sullivan's Island, SC
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location: 32.77, -79.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 200019
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
719 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
A powerful storm system will impact the area tonight into
Sunday, followed by cold, dry high pressure early next week. A
strong cold front will affect the area Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Early this evening: radar imagery shows the first showers just
starting to scrape the far inland southeast georgia zones ahead
of the approaching line of convection associated with a strong
cold front. The main portion of the convection is now pushing
into far western georgia, and so far the hrrr seems to be
handling the timing pretty well. In fact, the forecast looks to
be in great shape as far as rain chances and timing go. Current
thinking remains that the line of convection will push into the
forecast area around or just after midnight. This would put it
into the savannah area in the 1-3 am time period, and the
charleston area roughly 3-5 am. The background wind field with
this system is quite impressive, as evidenced by the degree of
severe weather back to the west across the deep south this
afternoon. That same wind field will arrive into the forecast
area after midnight, the main difference will be the available
instability. Models continue to show weak instability with the
front overnight, with CAPE values in the 200-400 j kg range.

This certainly warrants thunder in the forecast. The severe
weather potential is essentially unchanged, damaging wind gusts
will be possible, as it won't take much to mix down some
impressive winds. In fact the 00z kchs RAOB had 41 knots at ~2
kft this evening. Also, can't rule out an isolated tornado,
though the shear is mainly unidirectional. Some line segments
with a broken-s threat are possible. The good news is the line
will move through quick and the active weather should be gone by
sunrise.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Sunday: guidance is similar in pushing the cold front off the coast
just before daybreak Sunday with breezy conditions developing in its
wake. All the href members have the main rain band offshore by
20 12z with only a few post frontal sprinkles possible, mainly
across coastal charleston county. Although daily highs will occur at
midnight, "daytime" highs will only reach lower-mid 50s for
most locations with upper 50s near 60 possible in the charleston
metro area just after sunrise with temperatures falling back into
the lower 50s for all areas during the afternoon. Clearing will be
slow to occur during the morning with cold mid-level temperatures
associated with the passing upper trough likely to support steep
lapse rates and lingering stratocumulus. While a sprinkle or two
could redevelop over mainly southeast south carolina within the mid-
level cold pocket, a rapid deepening of the post-frontal dry layer
suggests measurable rainfall is unlikely. Clouds will quickly
dissipate as sunset approaches with clear prevailing through the
overnight. Lows will range from the upper 20s well inland to the mid
30s along the georgia beaches. A few mid 20s could occur in some
sheltered locations well inland. Wind chills just before sunrise
Monday will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s, coldest roughly
along north of the i-26 corridor.

Monday and Tuesday: quiet and dry conditions will prevail through
the period as heights build aloft and surface high pressure extends
into the southeast states. Monday will start off quite chilly with
highs only topping out in lower 40s to around 50, coldest across the
charleston tri-county area and warmest along the altamaha river.

Temperatures will moderate through Tuesday with highs topping out in
the lower 50s across northern portions of dorchester and berkeley
counties to around 60 in the darien-ludowici corridor. Lows Tuesday
morning will range from the upper 20s well inland to the upper 30s
along the georgia coast where low-level winds from off the atlantic
will help moderate conditions there in response to the formation of
a weak coastal trough just offshore.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
High pressure will move offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday,
then a low pressure system and associated cold front will sweep
through Wednesday night and Thursday. Numerous showers are
expected to accompany the front before dry weather returns by
late Thursday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday and
Thursday, then a few degrees below normal Friday into Saturday.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
MVFR conditions are expected to arrive just ahead of the front
with a line of showers and thunderstorms. Added in a tempo group
at both sites for tsra with winds gusting into the 35 knot
range. Included ifr visibility with the tempo group. Looks like
the main threat at ksav will be 07-10z and 08-11z at kchs based
on current timing. Also of note, the background wind field will
be quite strong and wind shear is carried at both sites
beginning around 06z. Once the front moves through and
convection ends, MVFR ceilings will hang on through roughly mid
morning before improving toVFR. Clouds should scatter and clear
out quickly in the early afternoon. Winds will turn westerly and
remain quite gusty through the day with frequent gusts into the
25-28 knot range expected.

Extended aviation outlook: there are no concerns with a greater
than 30% probability of occurrence.

Marine
This evening and tonight: south winds are expected to gradually
increase across all coastal waters as the pressure gradient enhances
well ahead of a cold front shifting over the deep south. Warm-air
advection over cooler waters ahead of the approaching cold front
will limit low-lvl mixing potential during the evening, but
stronger low-lvl wind fields of approximately 50-60 kt are expected
to spread over the coastal waters beginning late evening into
early overnight hours ahead of a cold front that will likely
shift offshore near daybreak Sunday. Given the setup, south winds
of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt are expected to increase to
20-25 kt with gusts as high as 35-40 kt at times overnight, greatest
over offshore georgia waters and northern south carolina waters
after midnight. Gale warnings remain in place for all nearshore
and offshore waters overnight, with the exception of the chs
harbor where wind gusts should fall just short of gale force.

Given the possibility of thunderstorms after midnight, special
marine warnings could be needed in the chs harbor. Seas will
build overnight until the front shifts offshore. In general,
seas will peak between 5-8 ft in nearshore waters and 7-10 ft in
offshore georgia waters.

Sunday: winds will peak just after daybreak as post-frontal cold air
advection will be the most intense during this time. Frequent gusts
to gales are likely over the georgia offshore waters where mixing
will be the strongest, but a few gusts to gales can not be ruled out
across the chillier nearshore waters. Per coordination with neighboring
offices, the gale warning for the nearshore waters will be extended
until noon Sunday, although it will be a bit marginal after 15z
or so. A late afternoon ending time for the georgia offshore waters
gale warning looks good. The gale warnings will likely be replaced
with small craft advisories due to lingering winds ≥25 kt and seas
≥6ft that are expected linger into Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: high pressure will bring improving conditions
to the marine area Monday through Wednesday. The approach of a cold
front will likely yield small craft advisory level conditions over
most of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
The combination of astronomical factors and wind forcing could
result in minor coastal flooding with the morning high tide on
Tuesday when wind directions will become ne.

Blow out tides are also possible with low tide Sunday and
Sunday night Monday morning with levels dropping to -1 to
-2 ft mllw.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... Lake wind advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for scz045.

Marine... Gale warning until noon est Sunday for amz350-352-354.

Gale warning until 6 pm est Sunday for amz374.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for amz330.

Near term... Bsh
short term... St
long term... Jrl
aviation... Bsh st
marine... Dpb st
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 1 mi51 min S 15 G 21 65°F 56°F1007.3 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 6 mi45 min S 14 G 16 62°F 1007.7 hPa (-2.9)60°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 15 mi37 min SSW 14 G 18 62°F 57°F1007.5 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi120 min S 4.1 63°F 1008 hPa57°F
41033 43 mi37 min S 16 G 21 62°F 1006 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 47 mi45 min S 16 G 19 57°F1008.2 hPa (-3.3)

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi50 minS 13 G 225.00 miFog/Mist64°F60°F88%1007.4 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi50 minS 9 G 148.00 miFair64°F60°F88%1007.4 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC12 mi49 minS 17 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F57°F73%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S5S6E3CalmNE4E3CalmSE5E6SE5SE7SE7S11SW13SW13SW13SW13
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1 day agoS6S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW4W4CalmSW4SW45W7W7CalmSW6NW5W4W4CalmW3Calm
2 days agoCalmNW4W3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmS6SE7S6SW7SW5SW7S6SE5SW3W4

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Johnson, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:51 AM EST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:01 AM EST     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:19 PM EST     1.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:14 PM EST     -2.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.91.82.11.81.40.8-0.2-1.5-2.4-2.8-2.4-1.4-0.111.61.51.20.7-0.1-1.2-2.1-2.7-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.