Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sullivan's Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:39PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:22 AM EDT (06:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:56AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1023 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 kt.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 15 kt. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 15 kt. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 kt.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 74 degrees.
AMZ300 1023 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will shift off the mid-atlantic coast this weekend. A cold front will move through the area Monday night with stronger cold front pushing offshore Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will then prevail into late next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sullivan's Island, SC
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location: 32.77, -79.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 220541
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
141 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will shift off the mid-atlantic coast this
weekend. A cold front will move through the area Monday night
with stronger cold front pushing offshore Tuesday afternoon.

High pressure will then prevail into late next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Early this morning: sct to bkn high clouds should continue
stream over SE ga and sc through the rest of the night. A few
marine showers should linger through sunrise, but should remain
very light. I will make a few tweaks to sky and pops through
sunrise sun.

Late this evening: no changes made to the forecast. Previous
discussion follows below.

Early this evening: the center of the large anticyclone
associated with the ridge aloft sits just to the east of the
forecast area. Satellite imagery shows plentiful high clouds
streaming into and around the ridge axis as well. The center of
the surface sits near the DELMARVA peninsula and will continue
to retreat to the northeast overnight. Radar imagery shows a few
light returns over the coastal waters, but this is likely just
marine based stratocumulus that is being picked up by the radar.

However, we will see shower activity begin to take shape across
the coastal waters through the remainder of the night as
convergence develops within a subtle coastal trough. Pop's
slowly increase and even begin to spread into the georgia coast
by late tonight. No change to temperatures for the night which
should be a few degrees warmer than last night.

Short term 6 am this morning through Tuesday
Sunday: high pressure will shift farther offshore of the mid-
atlantic coast as a strong cold front approaches from the west.

The moistening onshore flow could support isolated to perhaps
low-end scattered showers moving inland from off the atlantic
Sunday afternoon, but model soundings show a pronounced
subsidence inversion induced by subtropical ridging aloft hold
for much of the day with the deepest moisture generally confined
to the boundary layer. This should limit shower coverage quite
a bit, especially inland from the coast. 20-30% pops look
reasonable during this time with no mention of thunderstorms
given the largely stable thermodynamic profiles. Highs will warm
into the lower 80s.

Sunday night: the onshore flow will deepen Sunday night into
early Monday as low-level jetting increases with the approach of
a powerful upper trough an its attendant cold front. Increasing
nocturnal warm air advection isentropic assent should support a
general uptick in shower activity from midnight on, mainly
across southeast georgia where the lower condensation pressure
deficits will be found along a developing warm front. Pops will
range from 50% roughly along south of the i-16 corridor to
20-30% along the i-26 corridor. Lows will range from the upper
60s across interior southeast south carolina to the mid 70s
along the immediate georgia coast.

Monday and Monday night: rain chance will be on a rapid
increase Monday into Monday night as a cold front pushes
offshore. A warm front will quickly move north of the santee
river by late morning accompanied by scattered to numerous
showers and possibly a TSTM or two. This area of rain should
move north of the region with the warm front. Upper forcing will
quickly intensify Monday afternoon as the cold front's
supporting upper trough becomes negatively tilted and the
200-300 hpa upper flow becomes increasing difluent. Increasing
multi-layer vertical velocities induced by strong dpva coupled
with a deepening pre-frontal moisture channel (pwats 1.75-2.00
inches) and some surface based instability will support a large
swath of measurable rainfall, initially beginning across the far
west Monday afternoon, pushing east Monday evening and ending
west- east Tuesday morning. There still remains some uncertainty
with the timing of the highest rain chances with the 17 12z gfs
running about 3-6 hours quicker than the ecmwf, so pops will be
capped at 80% for now, although some guidance, including the
ncep nbm, is running closer to 90-100%. Am hesitant to go that
high this far out given these persistent timing differences.

Highs will warm to around 80 Monday before the onset of steadier
rains with lows Tuesday morning ranging from around 60 far
interior to the upper 60s along the beaches.

Tuesday: isolated showers could be ongoing around sunrise
Tuesday morning at the coast, but dry weather will prevail
behind the initial cold front through the remainder of the day.

A reinforcing, secondary cold front will push offshore Tuesday
afternoon with 850 hpa temperatures progged to drop quickly
during the mid-late afternoon hours. Should still see highs
recover to the mid-upper 70s before the the onset of the
stronger cold air advection.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The secondary cold front will by off the coast by sunset. A
broad upper trough envelopes the eastern u.S. Dry, but cooler
conditions will then prevail through Thursday before some
moderation occurs late in the week as high pressure quickly
shifts offshore allowing a milder return flow to set up. Some
uncertainty in the longer range model guidance implies lower
forecast confidence late next week but could see some rain
return to the area Saturday. Temperatures will be mostly below
normal through Thursday night before possibly rising closer to
or even above normal through the end of the week. Some inland
locales should get into the 40s each morning from Wednesday
through Friday.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
A cold front is expected to sweep east of the lower mississippi
river today as high pressure weakens over the southeast. Sct to
bkn high clouds should continue stream over SE ga and sc through
the TAF period. Shallow moisture and weak lift will develop this
afternoon as h85 shift from the SE and strengthen to around 25
kts. The combination of increasing moisture and deeper forcing
should support scattered showers, beginning mid this afternoon.

In addition, MVFR ceilings could develop later today and
overnight, but appears too limited to include in the tafs at
this time.

Extended aviation outlook: MVFR to ifr conditions are possible
Sunday night and especially Monday showers impact the region
with a cold front.

Marine
Tonight: the center of sfc high pressure north of the area will
shift east off the mid-atlantic coast through tonight. As this
occurs, winds seas will remain below small craft advisory levels
for all waters early, but will remain somewhat elevated due to
a slight pinching of the gradient associated with a weak coastal
trough developing off the southeast georgia coast. In general,
east winds will peak between 15-20 kts, highest in southern
waters where the gradient is tightest. Gusts up to 25 kt should
creep into offshore georgia waters after midnight. Seas will
also build, peaking between 3-4 ft in nearshore waters and 5-6
ft in offshore georgia waters late. For this reason, a small
craft advisory has been issued for the offshore georgia waters
starting at 2 am tonight.

Sunday through Thursday: conditions will deteriorate a bit this
weekend as a cold front approaches from the west and likely
moves through Monday night. A stronger, secondary cold front
will move through Tuesday afternoon. A small craft advisory will
likely be needed for the nearshore waters Monday into Monday
night as seas reach 6 ft in the southerly flow ahead of the
front. For the georgia offshore waters, a small craft advisory
is in effect through Tuesday morning for seas reaching 6 ft.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Tuesday for amz374.

Near term... Ned
short term... St
long term... St
aviation... Ned st
marine... Dpb st


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 1 mi53 min NE 11 G 13 72°F 73°F1024.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 6 mi83 min NE 12 G 14 73°F 1025.3 hPa (-0.9)69°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 15 mi75 min E 9.7 G 16 71°F 73°F1024.6 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi98 min NE 2.9 69°F 1025 hPa67°F
41033 43 mi75 min E 9.7 G 14 76°F
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 47 mi43 min ESE 14 G 18 78°F 79°F1024.1 hPa62°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi28 minNE 610.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1024.7 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F94%1025.1 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC12 mi87 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F64°F93%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmNE5NE6NE8NE6NE5SE7E5E7E7E9E7NE6NE6NE6NE8NE5NE6E6
1 day agoN3N4CalmN5N3N4NE6N6NE8NE6N64N4NW4NE6NE5SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N5NE6N6N5N6N5N9N6NE7NE7N7NE7NE8NE6N5N6N5N3CalmN3N5N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Johnson, South Carolina
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Fort Johnson
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Sun -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:16 AM EDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:22 PM EDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.12.91.70.80.50.923.44.65.55.95.85.142.71.50.80.71.42.63.84.75.25.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:01 AM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:09 PM EDT     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:20 PM EDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-2.1-2.1-1.5-0.60.41.31.71.51.20.8-0.1-1.1-2-2.5-2.2-1.3-0.20.91.61.510.5-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.