Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sullivan's Island, SC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:14PM Monday September 24, 2018 3:32 AM EDT (07:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 322 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Today..E winds 10 kt. A chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 83 degrees.
AMZ300 322 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A stationary front will linger over the area through Tuesday. Weak low pressure is expected to advance from the atlantic Monday night into Tuesday, then weaken as it moves northward. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday, then possibly stall over the area Thursday into Friday. A second cold front is expected over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sullivan's Island, SC
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location: 32.77, -79.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 240439
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1239 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will weaken tonight as a quasi-stationary front
gradually approaches from the north into Monday. Low pressure
will approach from the atlantic Monday night into Tuesday, then
weaken as it moves northward. A cold front is forecast to
approach from the west towards the second half of the week and
then possibly stall over the area. A second cold front is
expected next weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
No major concerns overnight. Isolated-scattered showers are
expected to develop along just offshore of the lower south
carolina closer daybreak along an inverted surface trough.

Adjusted pops slight to match this thinking. Expect dry
conditions to prevail elsewhere through daybreak. Could see some
shallow ground fog develop across the coastal counties where
skies clear at times prior to the arrival development of lower
clouds later, but no major impacts are expected.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
Monday: a broad area of low pressure located about 500 nm ese of the
coasts of sc and ga will travel W and NW around a weakness in an
otherwise anomalously strong h5 ridge with 594 heights and centered
near bermuda. At the same time a quasi-stationary front will begin
to sag into closer proximity of the area from the N as a huge 1038
mb high builds out of SE canada. An easterly flow throughout the
first 10k ft or so of the troposphere will maintain pwat values
around 1.6 to perhaps 2 inches, which is near or above normal for
this time of year. Forcing will be driven by coastal convergence in
the morning, and then the sea breeze, other meso-scale features and
maybe a subtle mid level impulse that some of the guidances shows
arriving from the s-se in the afternoon. This will lead to
scattered coverage of convective rains, highest over the coastal
counties in the morning, with the bulk of the coverage shifting
inland during the afternoon. Thermodynamics might be a little more
favorable for t-storms than recent days, especially with mucape
forecast as high as 2500 j kg if not more. Thus we have mention of
slight chance t-storms throughout the day. The overall storm motion
is slow enough to combine with the elevated moisture to allow for at
least localized heavy rainfall. The hourly temp curve will require
alterations at a later time, pending the exact coverage timing of
convection. But MAX temps should hit the mid or upper 80s most
places inland with h8 temps as warm as 16-17c.

Monday night: the atlantic low will approach but remain about 200 or
so miles off the coast by daybreak Tuesday, as the front is able to
drop into the local region with some wedging to occur inland. The
majority of the diurnal convection will fade during the early and
middle evening hours, with any late night convection associated with
the low offshore to affect no more than charleston and berkeley
counties late. Given the wet grounds and condensation pressure
deficits under 10 mb, we have added mention of patchy fog far w-nw
tier late. Min temps again will stay several degrees above normal,
coolest far inland.

Tuesday: the broad atlantic low will turn northward around the
western side of the sub-tropical ridge, and will stay offshore of
the sc and ga coasts as it heads toward the nc outer banks at night.

The inland wedge gradually breaks down and a light pressure pattern
settles in for the afternoon as the front becomes diffuse. Although
there is still decent moisture, it is less than recent days, and
that along with less forcing and some subsidence to the W of the
atlantic low, convective rains are no more than 20-30%. With less o
a chance of rain, plus h8 temps up to 17 or 18c, MAX temps will hit
87-91f most communities inland front the immediate shoreline.

Wednesday: deep sub-tropical atlantic ridging will build into the
area, with a distant upstream cold front still to the W of the
appalachians as a broad mid and upper trough is located over the
central states. A deep offshore flow throughout the vertical and the
lack of forcing other than mainly the sea breeze and maybe some
outflows that arrive from the w-nw, will limit chances of showers
and t-storms to no more than 20-30%, highest inland. It'll be
another abnormally warm day for late september, with h8 temps up to
17 or 18c and the offshore trajectories. As a result, most places
inland from the intra-coastal will hit 90f, or far above normal.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Wednesday night a cold front will be slowly approaching from the
northwest. This trend will continue into Thursday. The front may
then stall over or nearby our area Friday. Another cold front is
then forecasted to approach from the northwest on Saturday. The
rainfall potential will depend on the approximate location of the
fronts. For now it appears to equate to above normal pops. However,
more adjustments to the forecast are expected.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Kchs: two concerns for the 06z TAF period. The first is
potential low cloud development along a weak coastal trough as
isolated showers develop after 09z. Latest data suggest both low
clouds and shower activity should pass just south of the
terminal, so will limit CIGS to low-end MVFR for now and go with
a mention of vcsh roughly 10-14z. The second concern centers on
the TSTM potential this afternoon. Scattered showers tstms are
expected to develop near the terminal by early-mid afternoon as
instability peaks with a southward moving cold front. There are
some uncertainties on timing placement this far out, but there
is enough agreement in the various high resolution data to
support a tempo MVFR group for tsra from 18-21z. Adjustments
will be needed later today as convective trends become more
apparent.

Ksav: mostlyVFR through the period. There are some signals a
brief period of low clouds could impact the terminal just before
sunrise, but confidence is not high enough at this time to
include a mention. Isolated-scattered showers tstms are expected
to develop later this afternoon ahead of a southward moving cold
front. Latest high resolution data suggest the bulk of this
activity will remain north and northwest of the terminal. Will
not include a mention of tsra or shra at this time for this
reason. This will be reevaluated with the 12z TAF cycle as
additional high resolution data will be in by this time.

Extended aviation outlook: the greatest risk for flight restrictions
will transpire Thursday and Friday due to scattered convection with
a cold front in the vicinity.

Marine
Tonight: a trough has been depicted just inland from the sc
coast, and this has altered winds somewhat in charleston harbor
and near the coast. But the synoptic pattern will change to one
that features easterly winds across the entire marine area
during tonight as the trough falls apart. On average, winds
will hold at or below 15 kt, with seas as large as 2-4 ft.

Isolated to scattered showers will occur through the night, with
a few t-storms to occur after midnight.

Monday through Tuesday: low pressure in the atlantic, about midway
between bermuda and the bahamas at the start of the period, will
travel clockwise around strong high pressure that covers much of the
w and NW atlantic. It reaches it's closest point to the marine area
Tuesday, when it is positioned about 75-100 nm E of amz350. There is
enough of an inland wedge Monday and a boost from the sea breeze to
allow for easterly winds as high as near 15 kt, with the associated
seas to 3 or 4 ft. Provided the low in the atlantic stays relatively
weak, winds on Tuesday will actually decrease, but seas do stay
somewhat elevated, and as high as 3-5 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday: the sub-tropical ridge will be the
dominant feature, as any upstream cold front will not impact the
waters until late in the forecast period. Winds and seas should stay
below any advisory thresholds, although the wave watch guidance
indicates some long period swells originating from TC kirk that will
begin arriving during the latter part of the upcoming week. This
could alter the forecast of seas beginning Thursday or Friday.

Rip currents: modest onshore winds, astronomical influences and
small swell energy will cause a moderate risk of rip currents at
area beaches through at least Monday.

The risk of rip currents could remain elevated throughout the week,
depending upon how much swell energy there is from al98 (the closest
atlantic low) and TC kirk spinning in the central atlantic.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 1 mi32 min NE 5.1 G 6 78°F 83°F1018.2 hPa (-1.0)
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 6 mi32 min E 8 G 8.9 80°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.1)71°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 15 mi24 min E 7.8 G 12 81°F 82°F1017.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi47 min Calm 74°F 1018 hPa73°F
41033 43 mi24 min E 7.8 G 12 81°F 83°F1017.4 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 47 mi32 min E 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 83°F1018.1 hPa (-0.8)76°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi37 minN 08.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1018.3 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1018.6 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC12 mi96 minNE 38.00 miShallow Fog72°F72°F100%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N3N3N3NE4NE6NE5E6NE54CalmNW3NE5W7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3NE4
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmN3N3NE5NE4SE5Calm3SE6E7E10SE9SE8SE6SE6SE5E3CalmCalmN3CalmN3
2 days agoNE4NE5N4NE6NE3NE8E9E8
G14
E8NE7E6E9E12E11SE12E7SE7E6SE4E5NE3CalmN4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Johnson, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.