Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 7:07 PM   Moonset 5:32 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 231102 AAE AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 602 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: The over-detailed, low confidence/severe weather risk discussion below still looks reasonable (outside of the length) with any 10%-30% chances for measurable rainfall remaining confined generally from the Big Country late today, to areas along the Red River Valley and northeast counties. Breezy to windy with gusty southerly winds 10 to 20 mph, primarily during the diurnal hours of the day.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /Tuesday & Wednesday/

Cool and dry conditions are expected through sunrise. Outside of a few passing high clouds within northwest flow aloft, initially plentiful sunshine will briefly greet everyone at sunrise. The early morning sunshine will be short-lived as strong south- southwesterly winds of 45-55 kts a few thousand feet above the surface draw low level moisture quickly northeastward. A band of low clouds currently moving into the Hill Country will surge north with the aid of this LLJ and move into the area by mid morning.
Moisture below the stout elevated mixed layer (EML/Cap aloft)
based around 875mb is anticipated to be relatively shallow. This should result in the scattering, then eastward shift of the morning low clouds into eastern Central Texas and East Texas by lunchtime. A strong mid level disturbance arriving from the northwest late this afternoon is expected to support a cold front southward into South Plains/western Big Country. This front will extend northeast into Central and Southwest Oklahoma by this evening, but likely stall just north of the Red River and northwest of our eastern Big Country areas north of I-20 and west west of I-35/35W. Discrete storm development is expected along the front, particularly west of a Wichita Falls to Abilene and San Angelo line. This will be an area with much hotter afternoon temperatures and thus, a more elevated and much weaker EML/cap and better threat for supercell thunderstorms and severe weather.

Increasingly strong and gusty southerly winds this afternoon will continue drawing GoM moisture northward with a noticeable increase in humidity. More abundant sunshine across western North and Central Texas will help high temperatures warm readily into the lower to mid 80s. Meanwhile, more stagnant broken high cloudiness will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds 15 to 25 mph will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but still result in choppy open water on area lakes.

Any severe storms by early evening out west should weaken as they move southeast and encounter gradually increasing CINH (inhibition). That said, an isolated severe weather threat for large hail stones and very gusty winds will remain possible past sunset this evening, especially considering the instability within this area and high temperatures in the mid 80s. As we move through the nighttime hours, increasing mid level heights across most of the CWA will likely keep a stronger EML and help to limit any severe weather threat further east across the Red River Valley and northeast counties. Any low storm chances will be confined to those counties north of Hwy 380 and I-30 overnight. Another mitigating factor would be a strongly veered and weaker LLJ of 25-35 kts. More robust cells will still be capable of very gusty winds and small hail, with an isolated threat for large hail not completely ruled out with more robust storms solely due to the aforementioned steep lapse rates aloft. Any storm anvil debris and another stratus surge Wednesday morning will help low temperatures Wednesday morning remain in the 60s with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday will be very similar, if not slightly cooler out west thanks to the more expansive morning low cloudiness and slower dissipation due to moisture depth under the EML. The frontal boundary and any earlier extent of outflow will waffle around in or near the immediate Red River Valley into our northeast counties primarily along and north of I-30. With some uncertainty of how these boundaries play out, extensive morning cloudiness and showers, assessing the severe threat becomes more problematic and agree with the general thunder forecast currently in place from SPC with any low coverage of severe storms remaining well to the west and northwest of the forecast area. All these factors should help in keeping highs capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s with southerly winds 10 to 20 mph.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 231 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ /Midweek Onward/

An active weather period is expected the latter half of the week as a trough approaches the region. Several days of storms, some of which could be severe, are in store this weekend. Specific timing and coverage remain uncertain at this time.

As we move into Wednesday night, a few remnant showers and storms may be ongoing from the afternoon convection off a dryline just west of our region. Additionally, a stalled front along or just north of the Red River may also provide just enough lift for an shower or isolated thunderstorm. Any precipitation would likely be limited to our far northern counties, along the Red River.
Regardless of precipitation, cloudy skies will prevail region wide. This should help keep temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees through the night with southerly winds in place.

The dryline will once again sharpen during the day on Thursday, however, placement is expected to be across West Texas and the Panhandle. This will keep any precipitation away from the region during the daytime hours. As we head into Thursday evening and overnight, strong height falls associated with a passing shortwave will lead to additional development of showers and storms along the dryline. Given the enhanced forcing for ascent and plenty of moisture within the warm sector, rain chances will be rising Thursday night and continue through Friday. Severe weather potential will remain low Thursday night, however, this will be changing during the day on Friday.

The dryline will be shifting eastward on Friday, providing a source of ascent while the upper trough is moving overhead.
Ascent, coupled with increasing instability on the order of 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 30 kts will increase the threat for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible. The aforementioned dryline will retreat westward on Saturday as North and Central Texas will be in-between systems. Even with the westward retreat of the dryline, there will still be a potential for warm advection showers and thunderstorms during much of the afternoon.

A cold front will catch up the dryline Saturday evening/night as the parent shortwave pushes northeast across the Central Plains.
Low-level flow ahead of the front will remain nearly parallel to the boundary, limiting low-level convergence. If the lower levels are able to gain a more south or southeasterly wind field, thunderstorm coverage may be higher than currently forecast. The guidance continues to suggest the front will stall somewhere across North or Central Texas, continuing the periodic rain chances though at least the start of the next work week.

Hernandez

AVIATION
/NEW/ Update: No changes on timing and trends through this evening from the 06z discussion below. RAP/HRRR still remain the most aggressive with MVFR cigs reaching the D10 airports around mid morning, then dissipating by midday. Other models keep it S-E of the airports except Waco.

Otherwise, will add a more confidence period for MVFR cigs between 10z-12z Wednesday on current TAFs.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /06z TAFs/

VFR with southerly winds around 10 kts with an occasional gust to between 15-20 kts is expected for the D10 airports through sunrise this morning. MVFR cigs were already noted on fogIR satellite moving north from the Rio Grande Plains into the Hill Country at this hour.

MVFR cigs will race NNE aided by a 45-55 kt LLJ and reach Waco in the 13z-14z, then DFW soon after (14z-15z). With a strong inversion at 875mb and moisture below fairly shallow and surface temperatures rapidly warming into the 70s, I expect cigs to briefly rise into low VFR before scattering and shifting eastward around midday and thereafter.

Sustained surface winds are expected ramp up to between 15-20 kts by 18z with gusts 25-30 kts before decoupling to around 10 kts again within a few hours after sunset. CAMs do show another surge of low MVFR cigs reaching the I-20 corridor before 12z Wednesday.
I have opted to wait until later this morning to reassess the data and gain more confidence before introducing into the DFW TAF.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 64 81 68 81 / 0 5 10 10 10 Waco 77 63 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 5 5 Paris 76 61 77 65 79 / 0 20 30 20 20 Denton 79 62 80 67 81 / 0 10 20 10 10 McKinney 77 62 79 67 80 / 0 10 20 10 10 Dallas 79 64 80 69 82 / 0 0 10 10 10 Terrell 76 62 79 65 80 / 0 0 10 10 5 Corsicana 77 64 81 67 82 / 0 0 5 5 5 Temple 75 63 80 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 83 62 81 67 82 / 0 10 10 10 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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