Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charleston, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:16PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:18 PM EST (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 7:57PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 350 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Tonight..E winds 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. A chance of showers, mainly this evening.
Wed..N winds 5 kt.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Showers likely.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 60 degrees.
AMZ300 350 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will pass off the southeast coast tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday before another low pressure system moves up the coast Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will shift through the area Saturday night, followed by dry high pressure through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charleston, SC
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location: 32.78, -79.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 211746
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1246 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass off the southeast coast today and
tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday
before another low pressure system moves up the coast Wednesday
night and Thursday. A cold front will shift through the area
Saturday night, followed by dry high pressure through the
middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Update: temperatures warmed up much faster than expected across
the coastal corridor, partly due to more breaks in the clouds
there and less showers than anticipated. Adjusted the high
temperatures upwards a few degrees for these locations and
tinkered with the pops to reflect the latest radar trends. Hi-
res models still show showers moving into the northern portions
of our area into this afternoon early evening, so maintained
that in the forecast.

Rest of today: aloft, a southern stream trough axis extends
southward across the lower mississippi valley and into the
central gulf of mexico. Embedded within this trough is shortwave
energy that will eject to the northeast pass through georgia
and the carolinas this afternoon. As it does, a surface wave
will take shape off or along the southeast coast and lift
northeastward into the evening hours. The forecast favors the
hi-res solutions and features 30-50 percent chances mainly
right along the coast. Locations well inland will stay drier,
though a stray shower or two is not out of the question. The
timing is over the next few hours.

Tonight: the mid level shortwave energy, upper level jet
dynamics, and developing surface low will quickly move to the
northeast in the first part of the overnight. Pop's will quickly
diminish and the bulk of the period is expected to be dry. The
main forecast issue overnight will be the potential for
fog stratus. Conditions appear to be supportive of stratus build
down and model guidance is really hitting it hard with several
solutions showing widespread dense fog. Not quite ready to go
that far with it, but have introduced patchy fog to most areas. Lows
are forecast to range from around 50 well inland to the
mid upper 50s at the coast.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
An upper shortwave over the northern gulf of mexico on
Wednesday will gradually shift east and then northeast over the
local area Thursday into Friday. Dry high pressure expected to
linger for much of Wednesday. Then, surface low pressure will
develop over northern florida and move northeast Wednesday night
through Thursday night. There are still somewhat significant
model differences regarding the inland extent of the rain shield
as the low passes off the coast. However, the trend has been
toward slightly greater QPF over coastal areas with at least
scattered showers extending across inland areas by Thursday. We
thus increased pops during this period though kept the highest
values over the waters and coastal sections.

Precipitation should taper off Thursday night as the upper
shortwave swings through. Temps on Friday will rebound several
degrees due to decreasing sky cover.

Long term Friday night through Monday
A deep upper trough will swing through from the northwest over
the weekend, pushing a dry cold front through the area Saturday
night. Cold advection in its wake will result in below-normal
temperatures, especially Monday. However, as an upper ridge
builds and the surface high shifts east, temps will rebound by
Tuesday.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
There are two forecast issues in the current tafs.

1. The potential for rain to impact the terminals, bringing
with it temporary MVFR conditions. Showers are developing across
portions of the area and moving northward. We maintained the
tempo groups at both sites, with sav earlier than chs. May need
to amend based on the radar and observation trends. By this
evening the rain will clear out and the forecast issue then
becomes...

2. Fog and stratus. Models continue to be quite aggressive with
it, suggesting stratus building down into areas of fog. Opted to
go with ifr overnight and would not be surprised if conditions
are worse.

Extended aviation outlook: MVFR ceilings could persist through
much of Wednesday morning before lifting. Another round of
flight restrictions is expected late Wednesday night through
Thursday night as low pressure moves up the coast.

Marine
Through tonight: late today, a surface wave will pass either
through or near the local waters and push off to the northeast
overnight. Winds are expected to primarily be easterly today,
becoming more variable and light this evening as the surface
wave passes. Then late tonight, winds will become northerly
through sunrise Wednesday. Winds will be strongest today,
generally in the 10-15 knot range. Then overnight, speeds will
decrease and become 5-10 knots. Seas will be 2-4 feet out to 20
nm and up to 5 feet beyond.

A persistent northeast flow will occur Wednesday through Friday
as high pressure builds from the west and a low pressure system
moves up the southeast coast. The tightest gradient is expected
on Thursday as the surface low moves through. We anticipate the
eventual need for small craft advisories for most waters
Thursday into Thursday night.

The next surge will occur late Saturday night into Sunday
behind a dry cold front as cold air advection expands over the
waters. At this point the best chance for small craft advisory
conditions will be over the offshore ga waters where water
temperatures are warmer.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term... Jrl
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 0 mi48 min NE 6 G 7 66°F 61°F1017.1 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 7 mi78 min NE 13 G 15 62°F 1017.7 hPa (-2.2)59°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 16 mi70 min ENE 12 G 16 60°F 62°F1017.2 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi93 min E 1.9 70°F 1017 hPa59°F
41033 43 mi70 min NE 9.7 G 18 60°F 62°F1015.5 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 48 mi38 min SE 14 G 16 73°F 74°F1017 hPa60°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi23 minENE 910.00 miA Few Clouds66°F59°F78%1016.9 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC10 mi22 minENE 710.00 miOvercast68°F57°F70%1016.8 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi43 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds66°F59°F78%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8CalmSE3E3CalmNE4NE4NE5NE7NE4N4N4N4NE5N3NE4NE5NE5NE7E5E8SE6E7E7
1 day agoNW7NW5NW4NW6N6NW6NW5N7N9NE7NE5N4N4CalmN5NE4E75NE75N4N5SE3NE5
2 days agoSW11S10S8SW9S10S10S9SW11SW13SW16
G24
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W8W10W10W10NW13NW14
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NW10W11NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, South Carolina
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Charleston
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Tue -- 03:08 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:34 AM EST     5.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:38 PM EST     4.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
31.80.90.40.71.73.14.35.35.85.85.34.231.80.90.71.22.33.44.34.84.94.5

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:39 AM EST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:16 AM EST     1.66 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:22 PM EST     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:38 PM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-1.9-1.4-0.60.31.11.61.51.20.80.1-0.9-1.8-2.3-2.2-1.4-0.50.61.41.51.10.6-0-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.