Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Travis Ranch, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:32PM Sunday July 23, 2017 1:49 AM CDT (06:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:48AMMoonset 7:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Travis Ranch, TX
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location: 32.81, -96.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 230423 aab
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area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
1123 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017

Aviation
06z tafs
vfr should continue throughout the next 30 hours. With convection
being very mesoscale in nature Sunday afternoon, will continue
with vcts mention with lack of a synoptic surface boundary.

Convection Sun will be driven by a westerly moving tutt disturbance
over the northern gulf of mexico and potentially a few residual,
weak outflow boundaries from today.

Outside of convection, look for south to prevail around 10 knots
overnight and Sunday. Variable higher wind gusts will be possible
from 20z Sun through 01z Mon in and near any showers storms.

05

Short term issued 309 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017
this afternoon and tonight...

isolated thunderstorms have popped up in an area of strong
insolation where temperatures have already hit 100, and have added
isolated thunder roughly along and west of a bowie-bridgeport-
cisco line for the remainder of the afternoon. Subsidence from the
ridge aloft should shut off convection by sunset. This should
also hold true for seabreeze convection across the southeast
counties, where pops will drop below 20 after sunset. Otherwise,
hot and humid weather will persist this afternoon, particularly
along and east of the interstate 35 corridor where heat indices
are exceeding 105 and a heat advisory remains in effect. Warm and
muggy conditions will persist tonight with low temperatures
generally in the 75 to 80 degree range.

30

Long term issued 309 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017
Sunday through Saturday...

an interesting and somewhat tricky forecast scenario is expected
to play out on Sunday across north and central texas as several
weaknesses in the mid-level flow impinge upon the region. During
the morning hours, a relative theta-e MAX looks to set up roughly
along and just west of the i-35 corridor. At the same time, modest
isentropic upglide is forecast to materialize somewhere near the
310 k theta surface. Point soundings reveal saturation occurring
here (the 310 k theta surface should correspond roughly with the
700 mb level), and we even see some evidence of moist absolutely
unstable layers (mauls) materializing in forecast soundings. This
lends some degree of confidence that enough mid-level instability
and lift will be present to spark off a few showers isolated
thunderstorms Sunday morning roughly west of a gainesville to
goldthwaite line.

Additional moisture will slosh westward on Sunday as well, with
pwats forecast to climb into the 1.75-2 inch range. As a result,
surface dewpoints may be a bit more hesitant to mix out during the
afternoon, and are expected to remain in the lower to middle 70s
along and east of the i-35 corridor. High temperatures are
somewhat of a wildcard in this forecast, as the rejuvenated
moisture should help spark off additional storms with the peak
heating of the day, and any morning activity may shed increased
mid-level cloud cover across the region. That said, we see enough
a a signal for heat index values climbing into the 105-108 degree
range to warrant extending the heat advisory through 7 pm on
Sunday for locations east of a bowie to killeen line.

The other story will be slightly better shower and thunderstorm
chances expanding across the entire region during the afternoon,
(mainly after 4 pm) with the greatest chances across our
southeastern-most counties. With such a moist airmass in place
and mean cloud-bearing flow of less than 5 kts, some locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. In addition, temperatures in the
upper 90s, dcape values in excess of 1000 j kg, and low-level
theta-e deficits of 25-35 k all spell a potential for a
(localized) damaging downburst wind threat with the most robust
storms.

Much of the daytime activity should begin to wane during the
evening, but we'll maintain low storm chances across the northern
half of the CWA through Sunday night as convection firing across
oklahoma may drift south of the red river. Very weak low-level
wind fields mean any activity will be disorganized and should not
pose a severe weather risk. Any convectively-induced outflows may
then provide an additional focus for another round of showers and
storms on Monday before mid-level ridging gradually begins to
reassert itself Tuesday and beyond.

High temperatures and heat index values will once again begin to
increase as mid-level heights rise. Localized spots across central
texas may begin to flirt with heat advisory criteria as early as
Tuesday afternoon, but more widespread and oppressive heat is
forecast to overspread the eastern 2 3rds of the region by the end
of the week. While uncertain at this time, it's possible that some
locations may even test excessive heat warning criteria (heat
index values of at least 110 degrees) into next weekend. Perhaps
we can find some limited consolation in the potential for some
shower storm chances by Sunday.

Carlaw

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 80 99 80 98 80 5 30 20 20 10
waco 78 99 77 99 77 5 30 20 10 10
paris 76 95 75 94 75 5 30 20 30 20
denton 79 99 78 98 77 5 20 20 20 20
mckinney 79 97 77 96 77 5 30 20 30 20
dallas 81 99 80 98 80 5 30 20 20 10
terrell 77 96 76 97 75 5 30 20 20 10
corsicana 77 95 77 97 76 5 30 20 20 10
temple 77 99 75 100 75 5 30 20 10 5
mineral wells 76 98 75 98 75 5 20 20 20 10

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt Sunday for txz091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

05 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX5 mi54 minSSE 610.00 miFair80°F72°F77%1012.9 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi56 minS 910.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1012.3 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX19 mi56 minS 1210.00 miA Few Clouds87°F71°F59%1011.6 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX20 mi54 minSSE 410.00 miFair81°F72°F73%1013.2 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX21 mi74 minSSE 1010.00 miFair86°F71°F61%1013.2 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi56 minS 810.00 miFair85°F72°F65%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3S6S6SE6S7S6S6SE7SE6SE7SE7SE7SE6SE4SE5SE5SE3S5S7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmS3S6CalmSE5SE6SE7SE5SE6SE5SE6SE4SE5SE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5SW5CalmS7SE6SE3SE4SE4E6E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.