Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Travis Ranch, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday May 28, 2017 5:34 AM CDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Travis Ranch, TX
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location: 32.81, -96.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 281023
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
523 am cdt Sun may 28 2017

Update
A weakening cluster of thunderstorms continues to move eastward
across the i-20 i-30 corridors from dallas and rockwall, east
through an area from paris to emory this morning. We have gone
ahead and canceled the severe thunderstorm watch, as veering and
weakening of the 925mb LLJ continues through sunrise. In addition,
the better lift is shifting east of the area with the departure of
a strong shortwave disturbance currently moving over the ark-la-
tex early this morning. At the surface, outflow from the storm
complex is beginning to stall around or just south of the i-20
corridor. The true surface cold front was farther back to the
northwest and moving into areas well west of i-35 35w corridor.

The front should continue it's progressive southeast movement
this morning, before it loses upper support with strong afternoon
heating slowing it down and likely stalling it across our far
south-southeast counties this afternoon.

For the morning hours, look for best convective chances to
continue across our far east-central counties in vicinity of any
lingering mid-level ascent and near the stalling outflow
boundary. Though a few strong storms with small hail and brief
heavy rainfall are possible, the severe weather threat is expected
to be non-existent as 925mb flow continues to veer and weaken
after sunrise. More scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop in the vicinity of the the stalling surface front south
of i-20 i-30 corridors. Strong daytime heating will result in high
instability with another shortwave disturbance providing lift.

Strong to severe storms are expected once again with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary threats.

05 26

Aviation
Issued 1133 pm cdt Sat may 27 2017
6z tafs
no major changes to the latest TAF forecast. We continue to
monitor a cluster of thunderstorms across southern oklahoma that
will initially make slow southward progress. As the cold front
catches up to these storms, we should see increased southern
momentum. All of the short term guidance continues to show a
weakening trend as these storms move into north texas, primarily
the result of increased capping. Nonetheless, we'll still keep the
vcts in the latest tafs for all of the metroplex sites between
10-13z. If the storms do maintain their intensity a little
farther south than currently expected, then amendments will be
required.

Outside of the convection,VFR CIGS will prevail initially with
MVFR CIGS developing behind the cold front early Sunday morning.

MVFR CIGS will persist into the early afternoon hours before
lifting.

At waco, tonight's convection is unlikely to survive that far
south, but new thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
cold front during the day Sunday. Will continue with a few hours
of vcts between 17-20z to account for this. Otherwise, some MVFR
cigs should spread northward into the area over the next couple of
hours. Similar to farther north, MVFR CIGS will prevail behind the
front until about mid-afternoon.

Dunn

Prev discussion issued 332 am cdt Sun may 28 2017
complex of severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the southward-
sinking cold front this morning. This activity has shown some
weakening trends in the past hour and this should continue as it
moves farther south. The cold front has undercut this convection
and outflow has surged out ahead, but it will continue to feed on
the elevated instability present with steep lapse rates in the
700-500mb layer. As a result, all convection is expected to fall
below severe limits by sunrise, but remaining thunderstorms will
be capable of gusty winds and small hail as the remnants of the
complex sink towards hwy 380 and eventually i-20. Due to cell
training with storm motion roughly parallel to the cold front,
some localized flooding will also be possible in the next few
hours.

The cold front will continue to push southward today, resulting
in additional isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout
the afternoon hours. Later this afternoon and evening, the front
should be positioned across central tx where it is expected to
slow down and eventually stall. This boundary should be capable of
initiating additional strong or severe storms across central
texas after 3 pm today and continuing into the evening. The severe
potential will arise mostly from the ample instability as wind
shear will be lacking. The 20-30 kts of shear will be sufficient
for a multicellular storm mode which could produce some pulse
severe hail and downburst winds. Without sufficient shear for
stronger rotating updrafts, the potential for large hail won't be
very high. Areas across north tx should remain mostly dry during
this time, but have left a storm mention with a 10% pop as there
will still be plenty of elevated instability; any weak ascent from
the upstream trough would be capable of generating an isolated
storm or two.

Some noteworthy height falls will overspread the frontal zone late
this evening and overnight which should result in an uptick in
broad rain and thunderstorm activity mostly across central tx
overnight into Monday morning. Severe storms aren't expected
during this time frame, but rather more of a broad rain shield
with embedded storms along and north of the frontal zone as weak
isentropic ascent occurs. There should a downward trend in
convection on Monday with only lingering rain chances across our
far southeastern zones without much ascent available.

The remainder of the week will be active with chances for showers
or storms each day. At this point, the highest chances will be on
Thursday and Friday with a lower potential on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Activity will mostly be diurnally driven with
instability maximized in the afternoon each day. Several weak
upper disturbances will move through the southern plains
throughout this time which will be capable of generating
scattered showers and storms. Shear will be minimal during this
time and a diffuse upper pattern without any focusing surface
boundaries will mean the potential for any organized severe
weather is very low. However, there could be a couple strong
storms throughout the week just due to the instability profiles.

We'll likely remain active into next weekend with broad upper
troughing continuing across the western us. We may get another
cold front and a higher potential for more organized storms next
Saturday or Sunday as a trough sharpens and deepens to our west.

-stalley

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 86 68 87 67 87 40 10 10 10 20
waco 89 67 84 65 86 50 40 40 20 20
paris 84 64 84 63 85 40 10 10 5 20
denton 85 63 87 62 88 20 10 10 5 10
mckinney 84 65 85 63 86 40 10 10 10 20
dallas 86 69 87 68 87 50 10 10 10 20
terrell 84 67 84 65 85 60 20 20 10 20
corsicana 87 68 83 67 84 50 40 40 20 20
temple 90 67 83 66 85 60 50 40 30 30
mineral wells 84 61 86 61 87 10 10 10 10 20

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX5 mi40 minENE 13 G 1610.00 miOvercast77°F69°F77%1010.8 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi42 minNNE 14 G 1810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity77°F66°F69%1010.6 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX19 mi42 minNNE 8 G 1710.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain77°F64°F64%1010.1 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX20 mi40 minN 010.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity77°F70°F81%1011.2 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX21 mi40 minE 710.00 miThunderstorm Rain74°F65°F73%1011.2 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi42 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast79°F73°F82%1009 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S12
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CalmN9
1 day agoS14
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S10S8S7CalmSE8S9S11S10
G14
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2 days agoSE5SE7SE10
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.