Sunrise 6:53 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 161009 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 509 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift east of the I-35 corridor this morning ahead of a weak front. A strong storm or two with hail and gusty winds may occur, but the overall severe weather threat should remain fairly low. Other than some minor grid updates to account for ongoing trends, the forecast remains on track.

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Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/

An upper low over the front range of the Rockies will propagate east through the Central Plains overnight through Tuesday. The strongest forcing for ascent will remain to our north, keeping most convection well north of the Red River. That being said, isolated storms will remain possible during the overnight hours as the strongest ascent arrives. A strong capping inversion will keep these storms elevated in nature and likely sub-severe.

A surface low will accompany the upper level system, together dragging a Pacific front east through the region Tuesday morning.
Scattered rain showers and an isolated storm or two will be possible along and ahead of the front, but precipitation should come to an end Tuesday afternoon as the upper low heads for the Midwest and subsidence strengthens in its wake. There is a narrow window where a surface based storm or two may develop late morning/early afternoon over the far eastern counties before subsidence takes over, which could pose a brief hail/damaging wind threat, but the overall probability of severe weather still remains low.

The front will stall just east of the I-35 corridor Tuesday afternoon, and retreat to the northwest Tuesday evening.
Conditions will likely end up being warmer in the northwest side of the boundary where drier air and sunnier skies will exist.
Highs in the mid 80s can be expected Tuesday afternoon generally along and west of I-35, with lower 80s east of I-35. The retreating front will draw moisture and low clouds north through the area Tuesday night, keeping lows well into the 60s. Another warm one is in store Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 326 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Zonal flow aloft will set up the second half of the week, resulting in a deepening surface lee trough across the Central High Plains. An influx of Gulf moisture, coupled with the passing of a few shortwaves, may produce a few showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Better storm chances will arrive when a dryline and cold front move into North Texas Thursday afternoon/night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of these surface features and very warm temperatures (highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s) will yield plenty of instability in the warm sector. Models are also indicating there will be enough shear to sustain updrafts likely resulting in strong to severe storms.
Right now it appears the biggest threat for storms will be north of the I-20 corridor but this is all dependent on just how far the dryline mixes east and how far south the cold front moves. Storm chances will temporarily end Thursday night/Friday morning with the arrival of slightly drier air. However, models continue to point towards an overrunning pattern setting up Friday night through the weekend which will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms and a potential for heavy rainfall. We will keep high PoPs through Saturday and decrease them Sunday when the shortwave trough axis passes to the east. The start of the work week should be rain-free but it does look like more rain will return by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be warm Wednesday night and Thursday with lows in the 60s to around 70 and highs from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Temperatures will be cooler on the weekend due to cloud cover, cold air advection behind the front, and plenty of rain- cooled air. The coolest day will be Sunday with highs staying in the 60s and lows Sunday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Occasional light to moderate rain showers will warrant VCSH in area TAFs this morning, with precip ending early this afternoon.
MVFR cigs will also hold over most of the region through the morning hours, with improvement to VFR by 17Z. MVFR will return areawide after 06Z tonight. Otherwise, gusty south to southwest winds will drop to 8-10 kt after 00Z this evening.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 70 87 69 89 / 20 0 0 5 40 Waco 85 70 85 69 88 / 20 0 5 10 40 Paris 81 67 83 66 84 / 30 5 5 10 40 Denton 84 66 86 65 88 / 20 0 0 5 40 McKinney 86 67 86 67 86 / 30 0 0 5 40 Dallas 87 70 87 69 89 / 20 0 0 5 40 Terrell 83 69 84 68 85 / 20 5 0 10 40 Corsicana 83 69 85 70 87 / 20 5 5 10 40 Temple 85 68 86 68 88 / 20 0 5 10 40 Mineral Wells 86 63 89 65 91 / 20 0 0 5 40

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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