Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Travis Ranch, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:15PM Saturday February 17, 2018 8:41 PM CST (02:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:17AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Travis Ranch, TX
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location: 32.81, -96.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 180037
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
637 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018

Aviation
00z tafs
i will carryVFR conditions with high level cigs AOA fl250 through
much of the evening, though light E NE surface-925mb flow may
lead to some MVFR vsbys occurring at all airports just before or
after midnight. Challenges abound with flight restrictions both
w CIGS and vsbys between 06z-18z Sunday, as 925mb winds veer
southeast and increase, while light ene winds or calm winds
continue at the surface.

Bands of cirrostratus continue to stream across the region with
shear vort maximums moving quickly through the fast, near zonal
mid level flow aloft. At the surface, weak high pressure was
situated across much of the area with a weak low pressure trough
extending from the upper rio grande valley and northeast through
the hill country. Light NE winds 5-10 mph is occurring between
these features. All rainfall has shunted to the east-southeast of
the area, though some spotty rainfall amounts between 0.25-0.75
occurred near the airports.

A few high resolution models now showing potential for ifr cigs
and spotty br fg to develop initially across central texas late
this evening, then develop further northward across the dfw metro
between 08z-12z. I have sped up lower flight restrictions and
dropped them into the ifr category per latest NAM hrrr projections
by 10z after at dfw metro terminals with ifr CIGS and MVFR, tempo
ifr vsbys by 12z Sunday. Improving conditions back into MVFR are
expected just before 18z with increasing south-southeast winds
10-15 knots with vcsh possible Sunday afternoon evening. MVFR cigs
aoa fl020 look to maintain through the afternoon hours Sunday,
before falling back into MVFR blo fl020 in the 24-30 hour period
for dfw intl airport.

For waco, generally similar trends, just started the diminishing
flight restrictions sooner, or just after 06z Sunday. I held to
similar trends to dfw Sunday afternoon with the only exception
being CIGS remaining in the lower MVFR category blo fl020.

We'll continue to monitor through the evening and overnight and
couldn't rule out some spotty lifr conditions developing in or
near terminals by 12z Sunday if the high clouds can disperse
enough to allow better radiational cooling, though this appears to
be more of an "advection" event versus a "radiational cooling"
event.

05

Short term issued 246 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
tonight
light north winds will veer around to the southeast overnight as
the next upper level system deepens along the west coast and
return flow develops. There may be some lingering showers across
the southern-most counties overnight, but odds are that patchy
drizzle and fog is the more likely weather scenario as low clouds
spread north early in the morning. Otherwise, higher dewpoints
means that low temperatures will be kept in check, with readings
ranging from around 40 along the red river to near 50 across the
far south.

30

Long term issued 246 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
Sunday through Saturday
a spring-like weather pattern is expected to continue through the
week as multiple disturbances move through the southern branch of
the jet stream. The first of these disturbances will move across
the desert southwest Sunday while a stronger system moves into
the pacific northwest. The approaching systems will strengthen a
surface lee trough across the central rockies and bring a steady
return of low level moisture to the region. Patchy fog will linger
through mid morning Sunday, especially south of the i-20 corridor.

A few warm air advection showers will also be possible during the
morning hours with a slight increase in rain chances Sunday
afternoon Sunday night as large scale lift slowly increases. The
mid levels of the atmosphere will steadily destabilize Sunday
afternoon night, so an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue on Monday as the
western u.S. Trough digs into the desert southwest and low level
moisture deepens. Although shear and instability will both be on
the rise Monday, the cap will also be strengthening due to
increasing mid level southwesterly flow. The cap should keep any
storms that develop Monday morning elevated but there will be a
potential for some surface based convection Monday afternoon with
an approaching dryline. Therefore, the best chance for strong to
severe storms Monday afternoon evening will be across the
northwest zones.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday night through
Tuesday as the strong upper trough moves across the rockies and a
cold front moves into north texas. Lift from both of these
features, coupled with copious amounts of moisture, will bring
numerous showers and thunderstorms along with a potential for
heavy rainfall. There will also be a threat for a few strong to
marginally severe storms. Heavy rainfall will be the primary
weather hazard due to precipitable water values near or above 1.5
inches and a favorable pattern for training storms along and just
behind the front. Of course, the timing of the front will be
critical in determining when and where the heaviest rainfall
occurs.

Wednesday should remain unsettled across north and central texas
as upper troughing in the west lifts moisture over the cold
front. The best rain chances should shift to the east southeast
through the day Wednesday as the depth of the dry cold air
increases behind the front. The potential for heavy rainfall and
some flooding will continue, especially across the east and
southeast zones.

A few post-frontal showers will linger Wednesday night across the
southeast zones. The remainder of the region will be dry and much
colder with temperatures falling into the 30s through the night.

Another upper trough will deepen across the pacific northwest
Thursday and move southeast through Saturday. This will bring an
increase of low level moisture and lift again, resulting in the
return of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

79

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 47 66 62 75 64 5 40 30 40 50
waco 46 69 63 76 64 10 30 30 30 30
paris 42 60 56 72 61 5 30 40 40 50
denton 43 65 61 75 63 5 40 30 50 60
mckinney 42 63 60 72 63 5 40 40 40 50
dallas 46 66 61 74 64 5 30 30 40 50
terrell 44 66 62 74 64 10 30 30 30 40
corsicana 47 69 62 75 64 20 20 30 30 30
temple 47 70 62 73 64 20 30 20 30 20
mineral wells 44 68 61 78 61 5 40 30 30 60

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

05 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX5 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair52°F46°F82%1022.7 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair51°F46°F83%1022.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX19 mi48 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F45°F67%1021.9 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX20 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair51°F45°F81%1022.7 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX21 mi54 minENE 313.00 miClear55°F44°F67%1022.3 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi48 minE 310.00 miFair56°F46°F72%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6N5N5N3N3NW6NW3NW14
G18
NW7N3S5CalmS3S3S7CalmNW7N3N5----CalmCalm
1 day agoS11S10S9S10S10S11S11S10S11S8SW3N14
G20
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2 days agoS12
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S14S13
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.