Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Travis Ranch, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:38PM Monday June 18, 2018 4:18 PM CDT (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:37AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Travis Ranch, TX
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location: 32.81, -96.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 182028
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
328 pm cdt Mon jun 18 2018

Short term
Rest of today and tonight
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through sunset across mostly central texas and parts of north
texas. The highest concentration will be along and east of
interstate 35 and south of interstate 20 and activity should
rapidly diminish around and or shortly after sunset. Overnight,
will keep low chances for rain across our southern counties with a
slight increase in rain chances before sunrise. Another surge of
low level moisture may arrive across the southern counties before
sunrise resulting in an increase of shower and thunderstorm
coverage. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with
any showers and storms.

Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and east to southeast winds
at 5-15 mph. Overnight lows will likely be similar to this
morning's readings and have gone about 1-2 degrees above guidance.

Jldunn

Long term
The tropical low near the texas coastal bend will be the main
player in our weather through Wednesday. Unfortunately models are
still split on the ultimate direction of where the primary low-mid
level circulation center will track as it will be sandwiched
between two subtropical high cells to its east and west. The
ecmwf and a couple of the high res models take the low on a westerly
and then southwesterly track into mexico (which means less rain
for our area) while the majority of the guidance takes it more
northwesterly and and then shears it apart across central texas
Wednesday as a shortwave trough in the upper level westerlies
tracks across oklahoma. For now i'm inclined to favor the latter
set of more northerly solutions, primarily because the low center
will tend to stay attached to the most vigorous convection, and it
is more likely that the vigorous convection will occur where
there is a feed of warm moist air off the gulf.

For the details of the forecast... It is likely that a large area
of convection will develop overnight between corpus christi and
houston and track generally northward into the southern and
southeastern counties by daybreak. Activity will tend to diminish
in intensity by mid to late morning as it becomes too far removed
from the supply of gulf instability. The majority of the morning
rain should stay east of i-35 and south of i-20, and we do not
anticipate average rainfall amounts to be more than a half inch,
but isolated amounts near 2 inches will be possible. Widespread
clouds in the southeastern half of the region will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A little more sunshine and
daytime heating farther to the northwest will allow convective
temperatures in the upper 80s to be met and result in a few more
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing northwest of a
temple to paris line. While some locally heavy rain will be
possible with this activity, the coverage and average areal
amounts will remain low.

There will be another lull in the rain activity Tuesday evening,
but once again convection should increase after midnight across
southeast texas and move north into the southeastern zones by
Wednesday morning. The upper level weakness or deformation axis is
forecast to remain roughly from paris to temple. To the east of
this axis will be where the best chances of rain will occur with
pops above 50% and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. To the
west, temperatures will reach the upper 80s to near 90 and
scattered showers and storms are likely to develop with afternoon
heating.

As a shortwave moves across oklahoma, it will drag a cold front
southeast into the region by Wednesday evening. The GFS remains
the most aggressive in developing strong convection along the
frontal boundary and plowing it southeast into the CWA Wednesday
night. Model spread with this solution is very high (with the
ecmwf the driest) so we will continue to keep pops in the low
chance category Wednesday night. By Thursday the upper level
trough axis and highest moisture will be moving off to the east
so rain chances will be decreasing. Meanwhile temperatures will
be going up with highs back in the 90s for most areas.

Generally hot and dry weather will prevail Friday into early next
week as a weak ridge builds over the state. Highs will again
reach the mid to upper 90s for most locations.

Tr.92

Aviation issued 1241 pm cdt Mon jun 18 2018
18z tafs
concerns: ifr and MVFR CIGS returning this evening and tonight.

Potential for thunder at kact.

CloudyVFR conditions are expected to continue through the
afternoon hours with isolated scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The best potential for convection this afternoon is
south of interstate 20 and east of interstate 35, and most
activity will be moving northwest. For the kact taf, decided to
change the convective mention to vcts -tsra, but left the
convective mention in the dfw area at vcsh -shra. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the metroplex but chances are too low
to mention in the TAF and will amend if needed. Gusty winds and
heavy downpours will be possible with any showers or
thunderstorms. A lull in rain activity is expected late this
evening through the overnight hours with diurnally-driven showers
and storms occurring again Tuesday.

With ample moisture already in place, ceilings are expected to
start lowering this evening. Confidence is higher that kact will
experience ifr conditions overnight and into Tuesday morning. Ifr
conditions are possible at the dfw airports, but kept the ceilings
above 1 kft overnight for now. East-southeast and southeast winds
at 5-15 kts will prevail through the period.

Jldunn

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 78 86 74 87 75 20 40 20 50 30
waco 76 83 74 85 74 30 60 30 50 30
paris 74 87 72 84 73 20 40 20 60 50
denton 77 87 74 87 73 20 40 20 40 30
mckinney 76 86 73 86 74 20 40 20 50 40
dallas 78 87 76 87 76 20 40 20 50 30
terrell 76 86 74 84 73 20 50 30 60 40
corsicana 77 83 74 83 73 30 60 40 60 40
temple 74 82 74 83 74 40 60 40 60 30
mineral wells 75 86 71 89 73 10 40 20 30 30

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

82 92


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX5 mi28 minSE 710.00 miOvercast90°F69°F52%1014.6 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi25 minE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F68°F47%1013.7 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX19 mi25 minSSE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F70°F49%1013.2 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX20 mi23 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F70°F58%1014.6 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX21 mi31 minESE 6 G 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F68°F49%1014.6 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi25 minE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F70°F52%1013 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8SE8E8
G16
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G19
SE11SE8SE8SE7SE8SE9E4SE6E5E9E9SE8SE7E4E6SE7
1 day agoSE9
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SE9SE11SE8SE8S6S3CalmCalmSE5SE7SE7SE8E9SE8SE6SE7SE8
2 days agoSE11
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G14
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G17
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G19
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.