Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Heath, TX
March 29, 2024 12:05 AM CDT (05:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:15 AM Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 11:13 PM Moonset 8:27 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 282306 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/
A warming trend is underway with the return of south winds and the development of a mid level ridge overhead. Southerly low level flow will strengthen over the next 24 hours as North and Central Texas becomes sandwiched between a surface ridge centered near New Orleans and a strengthening lee-side trough. A 50 MPH low level jet will develop tonight, leading to breezy conditions beginning by late this evening. Boundary layer mixing will bring a stronger component of these winds to the surface on Friday, leading to south winds of 20 to 25 MPH along with 35+ MPH gusts late Friday morning through Friday afternoon. It will be close to Wind Advisory criteria, but too borderline to issue anything at the moment. Otherwise, a warmer night is expected tonight with lows in the 50s, followed by highs in the mid and upper 70s on Friday.
30
LONG TERM
/Issued 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/
No major changes are in store for the extended forecast period. A warm and breezy weekend is anticipated with afternoon highs primarily in the 80s each day through Monday, as upper level ridging prevails ahead of the next system. Onshore flow will provide ample moisture return ahead of the early week storm chances, with widespread 60+ dewpoints on Sunday.
A broad, positively-tilted upper level trough will drop southward across the Western U.S. before shifting into the Central Plains early next week. Pacific moisture rounding the base of this trough as well as lower level Gulf moisture will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies around through the weekend as well. A surface low in the Central Plains in advance of this trough will keep southerly winds slightly breezy over the weekend with gusts to around 25 mph possible both Saturday and Sunday.
A more organized, deeper surface low should develop in the KS/OK vicinity as the trough approaches on Monday, with a dryline extended southward into western North & Central Texas. Behind the dryline, west-southwest winds will promote temperatures in the mid 80s across the Big Country and western Central Texas. How much instability will be available for storms to develop is still in question, but the overall parameter space is supportive of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
A cold front will move through the entire area by Tuesday morning, dropping temperatures back down with highs in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Looking Ahead to the Eclipse: The countdown for the Total Solar Eclipse on, and we're now 11 days out. No major shifts have occurred with the guidance at this point. A reminder, these ensembles are under dispersed, so the probabilities are not truly calibrated odds. Here's the latest:
-- The GEFS/GEPS ensembles are still similar to climatology in terms of cloud cover probabilities for April 8th, with 40-60% of the members depicting less than 25% cloud cover (sunny to mostly sunny skies) during the eclipse time.
-- As mentioned in the previous discussion, the most likely pattern is conducive for North & Central Texas potentially tending with springtime stratus as we maintain southerly flow. If stratus occurs, the best chances for it eroding are before midday. If we're still holding onto stratus by this time, the outlook is pessimistic for eroding these clouds by eclipse time.
-- More of the ensembles now show a notable signal for precipitation across the region. Out of all the GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensembles, 40% of them now show precip of at least 0.1" in our area around eclipse time, compared to 25% yesterday.
Bottom Line: We are still far out from April 8th, but confidence is building that there will be a system nearby the path of totality to contend with. Cloud cover trended slightly more optimistic (~10%).
Note this does not contain any ECMWF ensemble data. The more concerning takeaway is the pessimistic trend in precip, which does contain ECMWF data. As to whether or not this system will be timed correctly to provide for optimal viewing, that's still uncertain.
Gordon
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
South winds will increase to 15-20 kt tonight, then 20-30 kt on Friday due to a narrowing pressure gradient. There is a low chance of MVFR stratus spreading north through the area, but the atmosphere will likely remain too dry for cigs at any of the TAF locations. Better opportunity for stratus will exist Friday night/Saturday morning. Conditions will otherwise remain VFR.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 77 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 54 77 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 50 75 56 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 53 75 57 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 53 76 59 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 56 77 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 53 75 59 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 55 78 61 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 54 77 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 53 78 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/
A warming trend is underway with the return of south winds and the development of a mid level ridge overhead. Southerly low level flow will strengthen over the next 24 hours as North and Central Texas becomes sandwiched between a surface ridge centered near New Orleans and a strengthening lee-side trough. A 50 MPH low level jet will develop tonight, leading to breezy conditions beginning by late this evening. Boundary layer mixing will bring a stronger component of these winds to the surface on Friday, leading to south winds of 20 to 25 MPH along with 35+ MPH gusts late Friday morning through Friday afternoon. It will be close to Wind Advisory criteria, but too borderline to issue anything at the moment. Otherwise, a warmer night is expected tonight with lows in the 50s, followed by highs in the mid and upper 70s on Friday.
30
LONG TERM
/Issued 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/
No major changes are in store for the extended forecast period. A warm and breezy weekend is anticipated with afternoon highs primarily in the 80s each day through Monday, as upper level ridging prevails ahead of the next system. Onshore flow will provide ample moisture return ahead of the early week storm chances, with widespread 60+ dewpoints on Sunday.
A broad, positively-tilted upper level trough will drop southward across the Western U.S. before shifting into the Central Plains early next week. Pacific moisture rounding the base of this trough as well as lower level Gulf moisture will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies around through the weekend as well. A surface low in the Central Plains in advance of this trough will keep southerly winds slightly breezy over the weekend with gusts to around 25 mph possible both Saturday and Sunday.
A more organized, deeper surface low should develop in the KS/OK vicinity as the trough approaches on Monday, with a dryline extended southward into western North & Central Texas. Behind the dryline, west-southwest winds will promote temperatures in the mid 80s across the Big Country and western Central Texas. How much instability will be available for storms to develop is still in question, but the overall parameter space is supportive of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
A cold front will move through the entire area by Tuesday morning, dropping temperatures back down with highs in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Looking Ahead to the Eclipse: The countdown for the Total Solar Eclipse on, and we're now 11 days out. No major shifts have occurred with the guidance at this point. A reminder, these ensembles are under dispersed, so the probabilities are not truly calibrated odds. Here's the latest:
-- The GEFS/GEPS ensembles are still similar to climatology in terms of cloud cover probabilities for April 8th, with 40-60% of the members depicting less than 25% cloud cover (sunny to mostly sunny skies) during the eclipse time.
-- As mentioned in the previous discussion, the most likely pattern is conducive for North & Central Texas potentially tending with springtime stratus as we maintain southerly flow. If stratus occurs, the best chances for it eroding are before midday. If we're still holding onto stratus by this time, the outlook is pessimistic for eroding these clouds by eclipse time.
-- More of the ensembles now show a notable signal for precipitation across the region. Out of all the GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensembles, 40% of them now show precip of at least 0.1" in our area around eclipse time, compared to 25% yesterday.
Bottom Line: We are still far out from April 8th, but confidence is building that there will be a system nearby the path of totality to contend with. Cloud cover trended slightly more optimistic (~10%).
Note this does not contain any ECMWF ensemble data. The more concerning takeaway is the pessimistic trend in precip, which does contain ECMWF data. As to whether or not this system will be timed correctly to provide for optimal viewing, that's still uncertain.
Gordon
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
South winds will increase to 15-20 kt tonight, then 20-30 kt on Friday due to a narrowing pressure gradient. There is a low chance of MVFR stratus spreading north through the area, but the atmosphere will likely remain too dry for cigs at any of the TAF locations. Better opportunity for stratus will exist Friday night/Saturday morning. Conditions will otherwise remain VFR.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 77 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 54 77 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 50 75 56 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 53 75 57 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 53 76 59 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 56 77 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 53 75 59 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 55 78 61 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 54 77 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 53 78 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KHQZ MESQUITE METRO,TX | 10 sm | 10 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 50°F | 77% | 30.08 | |
KTRL TERRELL MUNI,TX | 14 sm | 12 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 46°F | 67% | 30.09 | |
KADS ADDISON,TX | 22 sm | 10 min | SSE 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 46°F | 55% | 30.08 | |
KDAL DALLAS LOVE FIELD,TX | 22 sm | 12 min | SSE 09 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 64°F | 48°F | 56% | 30.06 | |
KTKI MCKINNEY NATIONAL,TX | 23 sm | 12 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 48°F | 72% | 30.06 | |
KGVT MAJORS,TX | 24 sm | 10 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | -- | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.09 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE