Thursday, June29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:43PM Thursday June 29, 2017 11:05 AM CDT (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:22AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.5     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 291148
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
648 am cdt Thu jun 29 2017

A swath of MVFR ifr CIGS along the i-35 corridor will continue to
impact TAF sites through the mid morning hours. Ifr appears to be
confined to just kact and kftw TAF sites, and with the Sun coming
up now believe ifr should not impact the other sites. CIGS will
lift scatter out by late morning with just some fair weather
cumulus expected from midday onward. South winds will range from
10 to 15 knots today with some higher gusts this afternoon.

Southerly winds will not decrease much after sunset and the warm
temperatures and stronger winds in the low levels means that while
MVFR CIGS are possible again by early morning Friday, they should
stay above 2000 ft.


Short term issued 352 am cdt Thu jun 29 2017
today through Friday
the usual bands of nocturnal stratus associated with the
advection of rich gulf moisture will mix out by mid to late
morning and reveal mostly sunny skies areawide by midday.

Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday as
winds become more southerly at the surface and southwesterly at
850mb. Humidity will remain high and heat indices today will top
out in the upper 90s to near 100 for most of the area. A weak
upper level trough axis will remain draped across louisiana and
the texas coast and will provide the lift for scattered showers
and storms along southeast of the feature. There remains a very
slight chance that an isolated shower could affect the far
southeastern zones today, but have elected not to mention this in
the worded forecast as this activity will remain southeast of the

Southerly winds will increase tonight and especially on Friday as
a surface low moves into the texas panhandle and tightens the
pressure gradient over the region. Lows tonight will be above
normal with readings only bottoming out in the mid to upper 70s.

Highs on Friday will again be warmer and should reach 100 in the
western zones, but the breezy southerly winds at 15 to 25 mph will
keep the central zones in the mid 90s with lower 90s over the
eastern areas. These temperatures combined with high humidity will
push heat indices above 105 in much of the central and western
parts of the cwa. However, given the high wind speeds the heat
will not be as bad as what we saw last Friday. A strong cap will
remain in place through the day Friday, so any threat of
convection will hold off until after sunset.


Long term issued 352 am cdt Thu jun 29 2017
Saturday through Tuesday
the fun truly begins after Saturday midnight and through the pre-
dawn hours on Saturday. Model guidance has changed somewhat
substantially over the past 24 hours with respect to the position
of the summertime cold front. The nam, canadian and ECMWF all
generally agree that the front will near or slip just south of the
red river sometime late Friday night into the pre-dawn hours on
Saturday morning (which is much less progressive than 24 hours
ago). The GFS on the other hand, keeps the surface front a bit
farther north closer to the i-40 corridor in oklahoma. With a
slower progression evidenced in all model guidance, convection
before 00 utc Saturday appears most unlikely given little to no
synoptic forcing and the strong capping inversion that will likely
be in place as 850mb winds veer. The question then becomes which
solutions seem more plausible with regards to the southern extent
of the convection. Given that the front should likely slide a bit
farther south than advertised by the 00 utc gfs, i'll lean more
with the canadian nam ECMWF model consensus which still is a bit
farther north than previously thought forecast. Preliminarily
looks at the NAM nest and ttu WRF still indicate a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms near and north of the highway 380
corridor, so i'll keep chance to likely pops here during the
overnight hours into Saturday morning. Farther south--- the
forecast becomes a bit more difficult and uncertain. GFS and nam
forecast soundings indicate a stout cap will be in place which
should no doubt suppress any free convection ahead of the main
complex. As the complex shifts eastward, it should ingest rich low
level theta-e air compliments of a strong 925mb low level jet.

The main caveat will be does any trailing convection have the
ability to overcome the surface based inhibition and utilize the
available instability above the capping inversion. Given this
uncertainty, I will taper pops off rapidly towards the south as
there is still the potential for some regeneration of convective
cells along the southern edge of the complex.

With regards to the severe weather potential---models have backed
off on the magnitude of the mid level flow (thus perhaps why they
aren't all as aggressive with the southward progression of the
front). The weaker mid-level flow yields lower deep layer wind
shear values, only on the order of 20 or so knots as opposed to
the 30-35 knots previously advertised. Instability values,
however, remain quite robust with model progs indicating that the
near-storm environment will be characterized by CAPE values of up
to 2,500 j kg. With a large amount of dry mid-level air present,
the potential for expansive cold pool generation is still quite
appreciable and we will continue to advertise a threat for strong
damaging winds---if storms develop. If a strong cold pool does
develop, it will mean that areas south of the highway 380 corridor
would see a greater potential for rain during the overnight hours
on Saturday. Heavy rain may also result in some instance of
flooding, especially along the red river valley.

By sunrise Saturday morning, the complex of storms should still
be ongoing with highest rain chances across northeastern and
eastern sections of north tx. I will continue to advertise low
rain chances as far south as the temple killeen metro areas given
the uncertainty on the southern edge of what should be a slowly
decaying complex. Any remnant outflow boundaries could serve as a
catalyst for additional development through the day on Saturday across
central tx. Given that most of this convection would more than
likely be driven by mesoscale boundaries, i'll elect to only retain
the 20 pop inherited for Saturday afternoon and evening across
central tx.

With the slightly zonal flow aloft, some models actually suggest
a re-invigoration of deep moist convection back across the big
country into western north tx late Saturday and into Sunday
morning. The vigor of the pre-dawn storms on Saturday will
ultimately dictate whether or not this potentially second round of
robust convection develops late Saturday into Sunday. For now,
i'll advertise just low rain chances along the red river through
the overnight hours. If a robust complex of storms can develop,
there will be a potential for strong winds and heavy rain. As
noted in previous afd's, if a couple of rounds of storms do
materialize there may be a concern for flash flooding.

For Monday and independence day---a rain-free forecast for north
and central tx appears appropriate given that the conveyor of
stronger westerlies will be displaced to the north. Furthermore, winds
at the mid an upper levels are only on the order of 15 to 25
knots, pretty typical for this time of year. With no real signal
for large scale lift, i'll go with a dry forecast. Given the
moist airmass likely in place, however, we will have to keep an
eye on the potential for any diurnally-drive convection, but for
now, this signal seems faint as well. Otherwise, conditions will
be quite seasonal with temperatures in the mid 90s and heat index
values nearing the 100 to 105 degree range.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 93 78 96 75 91 0 0 0 30 40
waco 94 77 96 77 96 0 0 0 5 20
paris 90 74 92 74 86 0 0 10 40 60
denton 93 77 96 75 91 0 0 5 40 40
mckinney 91 77 94 75 90 0 0 5 40 50
dallas 94 78 96 75 92 0 0 0 30 40
terrell 91 77 94 74 92 0 0 5 20 40
corsicana 92 75 94 76 93 5 5 5 5 30
temple 94 76 97 76 96 0 0 5 5 20
mineral wells 94 75 98 74 94 0 0 5 40 30

Fwd watches warnings advisories

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX9 mi73 minSSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1010.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX10 mi72 minSSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F73°F77%1010.5 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX11 mi72 minS 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F77%1010.1 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi70 minS 13 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F71°F74%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS10S9S10--SE6SE7SE6SE12SE10SE12SE10SE8------------S10S11S9S12S11S12
1 day agoS3S8S9S9E8SE8SE12E8E9S8E8E5--------------S7S9S6S10S8
2 days agoSE8SE7SE8SE7E6--E6SE6--SE5E4SE4------------55SE4SE6S5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.