Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:13PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:32 PM EST (02:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:11AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 655 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt until early morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..E winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt. Patchy fog.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. A chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 62 degrees.
AMZ300 655 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Unseasonably warm high pressure will prevail through much of this weekend. A cold front will approach the region late Sunday and will advance through the area Monday, followed by cooler high pressure into mid week. After a warming trend, a stronger cold front could impact the region late next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerville, SC
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location: 32.96, -80.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 230010
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
710 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Unseasonably warm high pressure will prevail through much of
this weekend. A cold front will approach the region late Sunday
and will advance through the area Monday, followed by cooler
high pressure into mid week. After a warming trend, a stronger
cold front could impact the region late next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Early this evening: skies have cleared and the primary forecast
issue overnight will be the potential for fog stratus
development. Confidence in exactly what will happen is
unfortunately low with plenty of model disagreement and mixed
signals. The overall set up is virtually identical to last night
with southeasterly prevailing low level flow in a very
consistent airmass. Last night, fog was late to develop and was
rather transient in nature. Some model solutions show little or
no fog stratus potential, while others show fog stratus
developing quickly later this evening. However, it is difficult
to ascertain what solutions are most trustworthy since much of
the guidance is initializing with widespread fog stratus over
the coastal waters, which does not currently exist. Some of the
more consistent signals seem to favor more inland development
closer to the midlands, with the less than ideal southeast flow
reducing the potential closer to the coast. This forecast update
shifts the areas of fog inland and removes mention of dense fog
since there is insufficient confidence to support its explicit
inclusion.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Friday through Sunday: a deep layered ridge of high pressure
will remain anchored over the western atlantic through this
period, providing record to near record warmth. Maintained high
temps above most guidance away from the coast, where highs in
the lower mid 80s should be common. Expect overnight lows around
60f. These temperatures will average some 15-20f above normal
for late feb. Please refer to the climate section of this
discussion fore more details regarding daily temp records. The
cooler marine influence will hold high temps mainly in the 60s
at the immediate coast, but even here temps should not fall
below 60f at night.

Friday through Saturday night, to varying degrees models
translate onshore flow, a weak coastal trough and low-level
moisture into isolated scattered showers. However, give the
strength of the ridge and associated capping, and given the
likelihood that inland moisture showers will remain north west
of our region, feel the chance for measurable rainfall remains
too low to justify a mention of showers within public forecasts.

Thus, for now held pops below 15 percent over land through this
period. Later forecasts may opt to include low pops for some
areas, especially within the near term, but most locations
should remain rain-free until sometime Sunday. Then, an
approaching cold front will push a band of deeper moisture and
associated showers into the region. Guidance differs regarding
the timing of precip and potential coverage of showers. This
forecast depicts higher chance pops Sunday afternoon. Also, at
least weak instability ahead of the cold front suggests that the
ongoing mention of thunder remains in order. However, despite
strong deep layered shear, overall parameters do not appear
favorable for any severe weather.

Also of note, conditions will favor fog early Friday morning
and again late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Further, as winds turn toward the south and lower mid 60s
dewpoints spread across the cool coastal waters, sea fog should
develop at some points later Friday night or early Saturday and
should persist into late Sunday night. Sea fog could
occasionally push onshore into coastal locations, especially at
night. Late night early morning hours as the light southeast
wind, then south wind drives moisture onshore under ridging
aloft.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
A mid upper trough of low pressure is expected to pass over the
mid- atlantic and northeast states early next week with a
southward extending cold front that pushes through the area late
Sunday into Monday. The front should bring at least high
chances of moderate showers, especially as pwats increase to
1.75 inches and favorable upper-lvl divergence occurs with a
passing h25 jet aloft. Showers and cold FROPA will be followed
by high pressure which will support noticeably cooler temps with
highs peaking no higher than the lower to mid 70s Monday, and
in the upper 60s lower 70s Tuesday Wednesday. Overnight lows
could dip into the upper 40s lower 50s Tuesday night, then
lower mid 50s Wednesday night. Rain chances should then increase
again on Thursday as another cold front approaches the
southeast during the second half of next week.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
The main forecast issue for this period is the fog stratus
potential later tonight. Similar to last night, the overall set
up seems to favor delayed development until the early morning
hours. At kchs, the forecast brings in MVFR fog at 10z and
returns toVFR by 13z. At ksav, there seems to be better model
guidance support for fog, so the forecast features a tempo group
for ifr fog in the 10-13z time period. Current thinking is that
the better chances for fog stratus will be inland of the
terminals. If anything does develop,VFR conditions will return
by at least late morning and prevail through the remainder of
the period.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions are possible
with low stratus and or fog during late night into early morning
hours each day.

Marine
Tonight: east to southeast winds will prevail, mainly 5 to 10
kt with seas near 3 ft closer to shore and 4-5 ft beyond 20 nm,
mainly from the southeast swell. With a warm and humid air mass
in place sea fog is possible across the cooler nearshore waters
but confidence is low in timing location as winds will not be
from the more favorable southerly direction.

Friday through Sunday: sea fog will potentially be an issue
while lower mid 60s dewpoints spread across slightly cooler
nearshore waters, especially when light southeast winds
gradually turn south Friday night through late this weekend.

Marine dense fog advisories will be possible at times until a
cold front arrives Monday.

Friday through Tuesday: high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern over the coastal waters through the weekend, although a
weak coastal trough could produce a few showers over southern
georgia waters Friday. Otherwise, southeast winds will turn
toward the south Friday night into Saturday, then toward the
south-southwest Saturday night into Sunday. Even accounting for
increasing wind speeds ahead of an approaching cold front
Sunday Sunday night, winds seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels. Seas through this weekend will remain dominated
by a 3-5 ft, 9 second period swell from the southeast. High
pressure should then build over the waters behind the cold front
Monday through Tuesday. By Monday afternoon, a northerly wind
will develop behind the cold front, the increasing
winds building seas could prompt small craft advisories for some
areas Monday night into Tuesday.

Climate
Record high minimums for february 22:
kchs: 60 1990 *tied so far today*
ksav: 64 1897
kcxm: 61 1991 and previous *broken so far today*
record highs for february 23:
kchs: 81 2012 and previous
ksav: 84 2012
kcxm: 78 1980
record highs for february 24:
kchs: 81 2017
ksav: 86 2012
kcxm: 81 1930
record high minimums for february 25:
kchs: 62 1992
ksav: 63 1992
kcxm: 61 2017
record highs for february 25:
kchs: 81 2017
ksav: 82 1985
kcxm: 80 1930
record high minimums for february 26:
kchs: 62 1939
ksav: 63 1939
kcxm: 62 1957

Equipment
The downtown charleston observation site (kcxm) is reporting
intermittently. Please use the data with caution.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Spr
long term... Dpb
aviation... Bsh spr
marine... Rjb spr
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 19 mi44 min SE 1 G 1.9 64°F 62°F1030.9 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 25 mi32 min SE 8 G 8.9 65°F 1031.3 hPa (+0.3)64°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 31 mi107 min Calm 63°F 1030 hPa60°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 32 mi84 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 62°F 64°F1030.5 hPa
41033 48 mi84 min E 3.9 G 7.8 61°F 62°F1029.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Summerville Airport, SC8 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair66°F59°F78%1030.8 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC10 mi96 minS 410.00 miFair66°F59°F78%1030.4 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC18 mi37 minS 37.00 miFair64°F59°F83%1030.5 hPa
Charleston Executive Airport, SC21 mi37 minN 08.00 miFair64°F62°F94%1030.8 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC23 mi37 minSE 38.00 miFair64°F62°F94%1030.8 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC24 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair64°F59°F83%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from DYB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7CalmE4CalmW6W5CalmS5S4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4S4S4SE4S6S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4E7S7
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina
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Bacon Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:36 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 PM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:12 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.722.11.91.71.30.90.50.200.20.61.21.71.81.81.61.30.90.50.2-00

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:02 AM EST     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:39 AM EST     1.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST     -2.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:10 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:19 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:06 PM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.3-1.2-1.9-2.2-1.9-1.1-0.10.81.41.51.10.5-0.1-0.9-1.6-2-1.9-1.3-0.30.61.31.71.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.