Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:12 AM EDT (08:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:37PMMoonset 1:07AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 321 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 kt.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 85 degrees.
AMZ300 321 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Atlantic high pressure will persist to the east while a surface trough lingers inland through the weekend. A cold front is expected to drop into the area Monday night, bringing somewhat cooler and drier air to the region Tuesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerville, SC
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location: 32.96, -80.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 210810
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
410 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Atlantic high pressure will persist to the east while a surface
trough lingers inland through the weekend. A cold front is
expected to drop into the area Monday night, bringing somewhat
cooler and drier air to the region Tuesday through Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Pre-dawn: skies have become mainly clear across the forecast
area with patches of mid and high clouds around the region.

Another warm and humid morning with temps ranging from 74 to 78
degrees at 08z, a few spots cooler inland and still over 80
degrees in downtown charleston.

Today: the main focus will be on the hot weather conditions
as broad subtropical high pressure aloft continues to be the
dominate feature along with the persistent inland surface
troughing. Forecast soundings show a pinned sea breeze today
along with some impressive inverted-v profiles across the
area. We think surface dew points will generally be lower
this afternoon as low level mixing is actually quite deep
with dry adiabatic profiles almost up to 8 kft on some
soundings. While temps likely soar into the mid to upper 90s
this afternoon, we should see surface dew points mix out into
the the mid upper 60s inland with the main corridor of concern
along the sea breeze in the coastal zones. We issued a heat
advisory right along this corridor given uncertainty on the
advancement of the sea breeze during mid to late afternoon. It
is possible coastal areas struggle to reach advisory criteria
but we felt comfortable with the small areal extent of the
advisory today.

Convection: models suggest a strong morning cap and general mid
level subsidence this afternoon. With the low level dew points
mixing out later today, sb capes will be diminished by this
setup. Several of the high resolution cams show isolated to
scattered upstream convection getting into inland zones toward
the late afternoon hours and perhaps pushing out boundaries
that interact with the late day sea breeze closer to the coast.

We have 20 30 pops to account for the timing and coverage
uncertainties into this evening. Dcapes look a bit less than
yesterday, but with the steep low level lapse rates and
pulsing updrafts, isolated strong to severe tstms cannot be
ruled out once again in the 21z to 01z time range for the most
part with localized downburst winds concerns the prime severe
weather concern.

Tonight: the upper ridging begins to weaken and while
isolated evening overnight convection is possible, most areas
will be dry after the diurnal cycle ebbs late in the evening.

No changes to lows in the mid upper 70s, warmest coast.

Short term Friday through Sunday
The area will be situated on the western edge of the upper ridge
Friday into Saturday, with hot weather continuing. A strong
surface trough will linger over inland areas while atlantic high
pressure persists to the east. Upper levels will remain fairly
capped, though decent surface based instability will exist and
better low-level convergence will exist inland closer to the
surface trough. Isolated to scattered convection is expected,
mainly in the afternoon with the greatest coverage inland. Highs
both days will be in the low to mid 90s away from the beaches.

Surface dewpoints will likely mix out inland of the coastal
zones, though a fairly strong sea breeze should bring increasing
dewpoints to coastal zones mid to late afternoon. We could need
a heat advisory for portions of the area both days, most likely
the coastal corridor where higher dewpoints will coincide with
hot temps.

The upper ridge begins to rebuild on Sunday, reducing chances
for convection and increasing temperatures a few degrees. We are
forecasting high temps in the mid to upper 90s, with somewhat
greater surface dewpoints due to stronger onshore flow. Heat
advisories appear likely for most if not all of the area for
108-108f heat indices.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Hot weather will continue into Monday though rain chances may
increase as shortwave energy drops into the area during the
afternoon. A cold front is expected to drop into the area Monday
night allowing canadian high pressure to build down the eastern
seaboard Tuesday through Thursday. Greater rain chances are
expected Monday night into Tuesday, then more isolated diurnal
convection thereafter. Temps and dewpoints are expected to drop
several degrees Tuesday through Thursday, bringing some
temporary relief to the ongoing heat wave.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
MainlyVFR. The potential for convection late day is low enough
that we don't require any mention in the tafs at this time.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR outside scattered afternoon
thunderstorms.

Marine
Similar marine conditions to the past couple of days with a
southwest synoptic flow with late night land breezes veering the
flow more west toward daybreak. The prime surging will develop
along the land sea interface this afternoon with 15 kt flow
adjacent waters from late afternoon through the evening and
early overnight hours. There will be a few gusts to 20 kt during
the peak surging along the sc coast. Seas 2 to 3 ft will
continue.

Atlantic high pressure will persist to the east through Monday
while a pronounced surface trough lingers inland. The resulting
pressure gradient will maintain considerable southwest flow over
the waters. A robust afternoon sea breeze is expected each day,
with winds in charleston harbor occasionally gusting to 20 kt or
so. Winds could become more northeast or east next Tuesday into
Wednesday behind a weak cold front.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Heat advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this evening for
gaz117-119-139-141.

Sc... Heat advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this evening for
scz044-045-048>052.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term... Jrl
long term... Jrl
aviation... Jrl
marine... Jrl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 19 mi43 min SW 6 G 8 82°F 85°F1010.3 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 25 mi73 min WSW 6 G 7 82°F 1010.9 hPa (-1.5)79°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 31 mi88 min SW 1 80°F 1011 hPa76°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 32 mi65 min WSW 12 G 14 83°F 83°F1009.6 hPa
41033 48 mi65 min WSW 12 G 16 81°F 82°F1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Summerville Airport, SC8 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1010.5 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC10 mi77 minWSW 68.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F78°F94%1010.3 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC18 mi18 minN 07.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1009.8 hPa
Charleston Executive Airport, SC21 mi18 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist81°F77°F89%1010.2 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC23 mi38 minSW 48.00 miFair81°F78°F94%1010.2 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC24 mi18 minWSW 310.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from DYB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmS3W3W3SE4S4SW5S6S5S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3S3W3S4SW6S3S4CalmS4S6S4S5S3CalmS3SW3SW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3CalmS4SW5S4CalmW3S4S5S5S3S3CalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina
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Bacon Bridge
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Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:06 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:39 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.41.11.622.121.71.30.80.40.1-00.10.61.21.82.12.221.71.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:31 PM EDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.210.5-0.4-1.3-2-2.3-1.9-1.1-0.10.91.41.41.41.10.4-0.6-1.5-2.2-2.2-1.6-0.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.