Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goose Creek, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:38PM Monday March 27, 2017 8:47 AM EDT (12:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:04AMMoonset 6:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 657 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..S winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 kt.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt...becoming E after midnight.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..SE winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves can be higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted...waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature...62 degrees.
AMZ300 657 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week. A weak cold front will stall over or near the area during the middle of the week, then shift back north as a warm front Thursday night into Friday. Another cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday followed by drier high pressure Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goose Creek, SC
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location: 33, -79.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 271133
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
733 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week. A
weak cold front will stall over or near the area during the middle
of the week, then shift back north as a warm front Thursday night
into Friday. Another cold front will move through Friday night into
Saturday followed by drier high pressure Sunday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 720 am: morning sounding observed a sharp but shallow
llvl inversion. Winds across CWA will start the daylight period
light to calm. However, as temperatures warm into the upper 60s,
mixing should deepen to above 3 kft. Steady s-ssw winds should
continue until the sea breeze pushes off the coast. Temperatures
ahead of the sea breeze should warm around 10 degrees above
normal.

As of 520 am: latest satellite and observations indicated that
sky remained mostly clear to clear across the forecast area. A
few patches of fog have developed along and west of i-95 this
morning. I will make adjustments to the mention of fog to align
with latest observations. In addition, I will decrease winds
across the CWA through the rest of the pre dawn period.

Previous discussion:
a broad mid level ridge axis will push across eastern ga/sc through
today. At sfc, a weak ridge is expected to remain east of the gulf
stream, resulting in a more southerly wind direction across the
forecast area. Given the mild llvl thicknesses and generally
good insolation, temperatures should warm steadily through the
early afternoon hours. Adjusting with persistence and the
greater veer sfc winds, I will forecast highs to reach the mid
80s across inland ga to the mid 70s across the beaches.

Conditions should support a sea breeze to develop and push west
across the coastal counties during the early afternoon hours.

The potential for deep convection along and ahead of the sea
breeze will be the primary forecast challenge for this
afternoon. Model soundings indicate that a significant inversion
will exist around h65. Given the warm sfc temps, it is possible
that parcels over inland counties could become uncapped, a
stronger case for capping near the coast. The potential exist
that inland areas could see capes rise above 1000 j/kg with very
low values of cin. Mid afternoon arrival of the sea breeze
should trigger sct showers and thunderstorms, I will highlight
with schc pops.

After sunset, a llvl inversion should develop fairly rapidly, ending
free convection. Rounds of debris clouds and decouple winds should
yield a complicated temperature distribution this evening. However,
i will forecast low temperatures to generally range between the
upper 50s to around 60. By the pre dawn period, a mid level s/w
should ripple over the savannah river valley, yielding weak forcing
across the region. Given agreement between the near term guidance, i
will indicate schc pops across most of the CWA for showers.

Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/
Atlantic high pressure will give way to a cold front Wednesday into
Thursday. The front should make it into southeast ga as high
pressure builds from the north Thursday. Minimal synoptic forcing
and instability should yield low rain chances Tuesday, mainly across
sc closer to a passing shortwave. No significant rainfall is
expected. Then mainly dry Thursday, although cannot rule out a few
showers and/or storms across southeast ga closer to the front. A
much better chance for showers and storms will come Thursday, mainly
south of charleston, as deeper moisture and more synoptic forcing
occur ahead of a storm system over the midwest.

Temperatures should push into the lower to mid 80s inland each
afternoon through Wednesday, likely warmest across interior
southeast ga. Wouldn't be surprised if upper 80s occurred Wednesday,
mainly interior ga, due to compressional heating with the front and
offshore winds. Record highs should be safe but are not out of the
question tue/wed, mainly at kchs. On Thursday, high pressure
building from the north will keep it a bit cooler, especially across
sc where it should stay below 80 degrees except close to the
savannah river. Once again wouldn't be surprised if upper 80s
occurred Thursday toward the altamaha river where some
compressional heating is likely due to the stalled front.

Onshore winds will keep beach areas cooler during the daytime.

Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/
The stalled front across ga is expected to shift north as a warm
front Thursday night into Friday followed by a cold frontal passage
Saturday. Drier high pressure looks to then return later in the
weekend before more unsettled weather possibly moves back into the
area for next Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through Friday night, although the best chances and heaviest amounts
are likely through Friday morning. Temperatures should remain above
normal through the period.

Aviation /11z Monday through Friday/
Sfc ridge will remain offshore through the 12z period. Winds
will remain light to calm during the first one hour of the taf.

Once mixing develops, winds should remain from the S to ssw
through the rest of the morning. Temperatures over land will
become quite warm, supporting a sea breeze to develop between
18z to 20z. As the sea breeze pushes inland, winds should shift
from the south and will increase to around 10 kts. After sunset,
winds should decouple and remain from the south, speeds less
than 5 kts with sct mid clouds.

Extended aviation outlook: brief restrictions possible in any
showers/thunderstorms, mainly thu/fri. Low probability of
restrictions due to early morning low clouds and/or fog, mainly
through fri.

Marine
Today, interesting setup for wave heights and wave period off the
southeast coast of the u.S. An area of deep low pressure remains
north of the dominican republic today. A weak sfc ridge between the
coast and the low will weaken through the day. The sfc pattern will
yield winds well below small craft advisory criteria. Wave guidance
indicates that swells sourced from low pressure will reach the area
waters. Wave periods may range between 10 seconds today, increasing
to 11 seconds tonight. Wave heights within 20 nm should favor 3 to 4
feet through tonight. Wave heights across amz374 will generally
favor 5 feet today and tonight.

Tuesday through Saturday: atlantic high pressure will be in control
until a weakening cold front moves into the area Wednesday and
stalls. High pressure will build to the north Thursday but the front
across ga will transition into a warm front Thursday night/Friday
and move back north through the area. A cold front should then move
through early Saturday. At some point prior to the cold frontal
passage Saturday sea fog could develop across the cooler near shore
waters and lead to low visibilities.

Seas could reach 6 feet near the gulf stream through Tuesday night
due to swells from low pressure well offshore and thus an advisory
will be possible across the outer ga waters. Better chance for
advisories will be Thursday night through Friday night as
strengthening southerly winds build seas to 6-7 feet, mainly in the
offshore ga waters north into the sc waters.

Rip currents: a moderate risk of rip currents is in the forecast
along all beaches today given near 10 second period swells of 2-3
feet from the southeast. In addition, the moon is approaching a new
moon.

The combination of higher than normal tides, onshore
winds and swells in the surf zone will support an enhanced risk for
rip currents through mid week, possibly lasting into Friday.

Tides/coastal flooding
High tides could reach advisory levels, mainly late
Wednesday/Thursday, due to strengthening onshore winds and
swells impacting the coast. This could cause shallow saltwater
inundation in typically vulnerable coastal areas, especially in
sc.

Chs watches/warnings/advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term... Rjb
long term... Rjb
aviation... Ned/rjb
marine... Ned/rjb
tides/coastal flooding... Rjb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 15 mi48 min ESE 1 G 1 65°F 62°F1020.7 hPa (+1.4)
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 22 mi48 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1021.1 hPa (+1.5)61°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 22 mi40 min SE 1.9 G 5.8 64°F 1020.5 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 41 mi63 min Calm 58°F 1020 hPa58°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 47 mi63 min Calm 57°F 1020 hPa56°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC8 mi1.9 hrsN 08.00 miShallow Fog58°F55°F90%1020 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi53 minN 08.00 miFair55°F53°F94%1020.7 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC14 mi53 minN 07.00 miFair52°F50°F94%1020.3 hPa
Summerville Airport, SC18 mi53 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F53°F100%1020.7 hPa
Charleston Executive Airport, SC21 mi53 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F94%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S8S8
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S15S14S13S14S6SE7SE6S5S5S6S6S6CalmCalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoSE3SE7SE10SE10SE14
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2 days agoNE76SE8SE13
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SE13SE11SE12SE8SE6SE7SE6SE3CalmNE3CalmSE4SE5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Back River Reservoir, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina
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Back River Reservoir
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:57 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8110.80.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.300.40.70.910.90.70.3-0-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:07 AM EDT     1.98 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:52 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:02 PM EDT     -2.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.7-1.9-0.80.51.521.81.40.9-0.2-1.4-2.5-2.9-2.5-1.301.3221.61.10.2-1.1-2.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.