Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 9:08 PM   Moonset 6:30 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 250904 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 214 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ /End Of The Week/

The Southern Plains upper ridge remains entrenched across the forecast area through this evening, thus providing continued subsidence and maintaining the elevated mixed layer based at lower levels. Another surge of morning low clouds will overtake most, if not all the entire region with extensive moisture above 500mb and high clouds this afternoon thanks to an impulse traversing the ridge. This will keep any legitimate convection and rainfall deflected to the north and northeast of the area. Spotty morning sprinkles that may dot your windshield are certainly possible considering the moisture depth below the slow-rising elevated mixed layer (capping inversion. The multiple layers of moisture/clouds will also inhibit the better late April insolation and keep highs contained in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

A tight pressure gradient and eventual mixing later this morning will result in breezy conditions as southerly winds increase to between 15 and 20 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph. Very gusty southerly winds will continue into the overnight hours as surface temperatures only fall to between 65 and 70 degrees and help to keep the surface somewhat coupled with the LLJ.

A substantial shortwave disturbance is forecast to lift across the Central/Southern High Plans and western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas during the pre-dawn hours Friday. This will draw a Pacific cold front containing mP/mT airmass eastward into our Big Country counties on Friday. The right entrance region of a N to S-oriented, 90-110 kt upper jet, with 70 kts lower at 500mb will add increasing ageostrophic ascent to the already ongoing lift from the mid level impulse and ongoing warm advection with very moist and conditionally unstable lower levels available within the broad warm sector. All these factors will easily overcome any residual elevated/weak cap with strong to severe storms rapidly initializing along the approaching cold front across Northwest Texas into the South Plains overnight. Very steep mid level lapse rates > 8 deg C/km and MLCAPE of 2000 J/KG+ will juxtapose with with westerly 40-50 kt effective shear for all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes during the discrete stages mostly west/northwest of the forecast area. Afterward, large hail and damaging winds are the primary impacts as the convective system becomes more linear. The eventual evolution linear mode along the front will definitely wake a few folks up Friday morning. Despite the more linear storm mode, a few supercells embedded within the line will pose localized tornado threat.

The Pacific cold front stalls along or just west of the Hwy 281 corridor later Friday morning, as it loses upper support with the initial and strong shortwave. This will result in a gradual weakening trends and lowering severe threat with any convection that maintains eastward past I-35 and into the midday and early afternoon hours. Hail, gusty outflow winds, and locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding will still be problematic into early Friday afternoon. Earlier clearing will bring steamy and humid conditions Friday afternoon across the areas along and west of US-281 with highs 85 to 90 degrees, while the clouds, rain, and storms linger longer further east with much of Central and East Texas only warming into the mid-upper 70s with continued gusty southerly winds.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/

Weather Headlines:

- Severe thunderstorm chance will continue Saturday and Sunday.
Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

- There will be a risk of flash flooding Saturday night mainly along the Red River. The threat shifts into East Texas on Sunday

- Windy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon with gusts approaching 45 mph in some locations. A Wind Advisory appears likely.

- Not everyone will see thunderstorms this weekend. Southeast Texas may see the lowest thunderstorm coverage.

With the mid-week ridge moving out and troughing setting up across the western CONUS, North and Central Texas is in store for an active weekend with multiple rounds of storms expected. The key players this weekend will be timing the individual impulses and placement of a meandering front/dryline that will set up across North and Central Texas.

Strong southerly flow will commence on Friday as strong lee cyclogenesis takes place while high pressure strengthens across the mid-Atlantic coastline. This will effectively funnel a decent amount of moisture north/northeastward from Texas into the Great Lakes.

As the main upper trough inches closer to our region, we'll see increasing rain chances starting Friday night. The boundary overnight will likely be west of our region, however, given the unstable environment, a few showers or isolated storms will be possible primarily west and northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. A stout capping inversion is likely to preclude severe weather, however, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out closer to sunrise Saturday.

Any morning rain will have the potential to impact afternoon storm chances. If morning convection remains at a minimum, there will be largely untapped warm sector for severe thunderstorms to develop. The environment atop North and Central Texas will be characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE as lapse rates steepen to ~8C/km. With the low-level jet expected to strengthen, there may be an increasing risk for supercell development capable of producing a tornado or two. The exact area of heightened threat remains uncertain at this time given the uncertainty in morning rain and placement of the front.

As we approach Saturday night, increasing moisture transport into our region coupled with enhanced upper level forcing for ascent will lead to a heavy rain potential across North Texas. The highest threat will be along the immediate Red River Valley, where training of thunderstorms is looking most likely. Unidirectional flow parallel to a stalled/slow moving front may lead to 3+ inches of rain in a short amount of time. The highest amounts are likely to remain in Oklahoma, however, we'll need to monitor trends for any potential southward shift in the heaviest expected rainfall amounts.

The front will make slow eastward progress through the day on Sunday with a continued heavy rain threat. The risk for flooding will shift into East Texas as slightly dryer air overspreads areas along and west of I-35. The severe weather threat will also continue on Sunday, generally east of I-35. MLCAPE of nearly 2000 J/kg will continue, however, a slight weakness in the low-level winds will decrease the effective shear. Nonetheless, this could make for a messy set-up with a few storms posing a large hail and damaging wind threat.

The main upper trough will be atop our region of Monday, keeping precipitation storm chances going through the day. Plenty of instability will be at play with a continued threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms. Thermodynamic environment will remain favorable for large hail and damaging winds.
Timing/location will depend on the placement of the stalled front, therefore, expect more clarity in the coming days.

Weak ridging aloft will move overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to temporary reprieve from the daily storm chances.
Unfortunately, the next system will be arriving on Thursday with rain chances coming back into the forecast to finish out next work week.

Hernandez

AVIATION
/Issued 214 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ /06z TAFs/

Challenges remain similar to Wednesday. Gauging both speed and gusts with southerly winds which should be increasing after 12z this morning. No doubt we'll get MVFR across the D10 and DFW airports, it's the timing that still differs amongst high-res models. The GLAMP/GFS remains the most aggressive on bringing MVFR into the D10 airports by 10z, while the NAM is 12z, and the RAP/HRRR delay arrival until close to mid morning.

I will take the "middle road" timing here and lean toward the NAM with high MVFR cigs arriving across the DFW Metro at 12z, with a fall into low MVFR by mid morning. Waco Regional Airport should see an arrival 1-2 hours earlier, along with a window of IFR cigs occurring through late morning. Warmer surface temperatures here across DFW should keep cigs out of IFR, though AFW/FTW/GKY will be on the fence for a 1-2 hour TEMPO group around mid morning.

Cigs rise into high MVFR (=> 2 kft) during the early afternoon hours, then into low VFR for a few hours either side of 00z Friday. As the 925mb LLJ cranks up after 03z Friday, cigs will likely thicken and fall into low MVFR just before midnight. S winds will continue AoB 10 kts through sunrise before increasing to between 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts mid-late morning and through this coming evening.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 70 81 69 83 / 5 60 80 10 50 Waco 81 69 79 70 83 / 10 20 70 10 30 Paris 79 68 75 68 82 / 20 30 90 30 50 Denton 78 68 82 68 81 / 10 60 70 10 50 McKinney 78 68 80 69 82 / 10 50 80 20 50 Dallas 80 70 81 70 84 / 5 50 80 20 40 Terrell 79 69 78 69 83 / 5 30 90 20 30 Corsicana 81 70 79 71 85 / 5 20 70 20 20 Temple 81 69 78 70 84 / 10 10 60 10 20 Mineral Wells 80 67 85 67 81 / 10 80 50 5 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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