Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewisville, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:04PM Saturday April 21, 2018 4:45 AM CDT (09:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 12:06AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewisville, TX
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location: 33.08, -96.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 210757
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
257 am cdt Sat apr 21 2018

Short term
Today and tonight
after a couple of fantastic days across north texas to end the
week, changes are rapidly occurring to start the weekend.

Water vapor imagery shows a large upper low moving out of the
4-corners region and into the plains early this morning. As it
does, strong low level warm moist advection is helping an already
large cloud shield expand north and east. Most areas will be
overcast by sunrise with cloud heights falling through the
morning.

Regional radar imagery shows that most of the ongoing showers and
thunderstorms are still mainly across oklahoma, but as stronger
warm advection spreads south and east beneath an increasingly
diffluent upper jet, we should see an expansion southward of the
showers and thunderstorms through the morning hours. The best
combination of moisture and lift will persist across north texas
through early afternoon as a surface low over west texas starts to
move eastward. The exact track of this low will have implications
mainly on our temperature forecast, as the warm sector will remain
to the east and south of the track. We should see temperatures
warm into the upper 70s across our southwest counties while areas
north of i-20 to the red river will likely stay in the 60s.

Highest rain chances through midday should be across the northern
half of the CWA closely tied to the strong low level warm
advection. As the upper low continues eastward, this initial wave
of precipitation will also begin to shift east. A cold front will
begin to slide southward into the region this afternoon, and will
likely serve as a focus for additional showers and a few
thunderstorms into the evening hours. Given the extent of the
cloud cover currently observed, it appears unlikely that we'll see
significant breaks and destabilization this afternoon ahead of the
cold front. That being said, several of the high-resolution
models do show thunderstorms developing along the cold front late
this afternoon into the evening. There will be an axis of
instability, aided by steepening lapse rates in vicinity of the
upper low, along and ahead of the cold front late this afternoon
across our northwest counties into the i-35 corridor. Scattered
thunderstorms that develop along the front could become semi-
organized given the strong deep layer shear although there should
be a tendency for them to quickly become elevated. These would
pose mainly a low- end severe hail risk. If any storms can
actually become surface based ahead of the front then they would
have an attendant damaging wind threat.

Precipitation should end from west to east tonight with slightly
cooler air spilling into north texas along with breezy northwest
winds. Low level moisture will linger through the night with
cloudy conditions persisting.

Dunn

Long term
Sunday onward
while showers and thunderstorms will have exited the forecast area
by Sunday morning, cloud cover will linger through much of the day
as moisture wraps around the departing low. Our western zones may
begin clearing out by midday, but expect our northeastern areas
to remain overcast into the afternoon. Have kept temperatures
cooler in these areas with highs likely struggling to reach the
mid 60s, but temperatures will climb into the 70s to the west and
south where some sunshine will occur in the afternoon. Breezy
northwest winds at 15-25 mph will prevail through much of the
day.

It will be a dry start to the week with a gradual warm-up as upper
ridging occurs between systems. Highs will climb into the 70s on
Monday with some 80s likely by Tuesday. Moisture however, will be
slow to return during this time without a favorable southerly
fetch, and dewpoints are expected to hold in the 50s. Moisture
return will not be aided by the next approaching shortwave which
will be pivoting through northwest flow aloft over the central
plains late Tuesday. This storm track is quite unfavorable for
pulling moisture back into the region which will limit the extent
of rain and thunderstorm chances as it arrives on Wednesday.

By Wednesday morning, the upper disturbance will be on our
doorstep along with its attendant cold front. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should accompany the front's passage as it moves
through the forecast area throughout the day. Barring any drastic
changes to the anticipated environment, strong or severe storms
appear unlikely, owing to a lack of instability due to meager low-
level moisture and unimpressive lapse rates. Models still disagree
with the timing of the front with the GFS being several hours
faster than the latest ecmwf, and these timing inconsistencies
will likely continue for a couple more days. Regardless, Wednesday
will be substantially cooler and rainy for a large portion of the
forecast area. High temperatures will likely occur in the morning
prior to the front's arrival, and many areas may spend the
majority of the day in the 50s under cloudy skies.

A lull in rain chances should occur on Thursday with a slight
rebound in temperatures, but the break will be short lived as
another northern stream shortwave dives southward by Friday.

Models have been quite variable through the extended portion of
the forecast, so confidence remains low for next Fri Sat at this
time. However, a second strong shortwave and some lingering
moisture warrants the inclusion of some low pops to end the week.

Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly below normal
during this time period.

-stalley

Aviation issued 1148 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018
low level moisture will continue to surge into a surface low
currently near the texas new mexico border. MVFR ceilings will
remain primarily west of the TAF sites in this moisture plume.

However, some briefVFR ceilings around 4000 ft may briefly cover
act overnight. The surface low will move slowly southeast
overnight and MVFR ceilings will expand eastward, reaching the
taf sites around or just after sunrise. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will also accompany the low ceilings Saturday
morning with a better chance of thunderstorms during the late
afternoon early evening with the arrival of a cold front. Storms
that develop along the front Saturday will be brief and should
exit to the east by 03z.

A southeast to south wind will remain between 12 and 15 knots
tonight and Saturday morning. The wind will become lighter and
mainly east northeast just prior to the passage of the front.

Fropa will occur at the metroplex terminals between 01 and 02z and
around 03z in waco. A northwest wind will prevail behind the
front at speeds between 10 and 14 knot.

79

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 67 52 69 50 75 90 30 5 0 0
waco 71 52 71 49 77 50 40 5 0 0
paris 65 52 64 50 70 100 80 10 0 0
denton 65 50 67 48 74 100 30 5 0 0
mckinney 65 51 65 49 73 100 50 10 0 0
dallas 68 52 68 51 75 90 40 10 0 0
terrell 66 53 67 50 75 90 60 10 0 0
corsicana 68 54 69 50 75 70 60 10 0 0
temple 73 53 74 50 77 50 40 5 0 0
mineral wells 69 49 69 45 75 80 20 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX10 mi70 minSE 610.00 miOvercast57°F46°F67%1019 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX12 mi52 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F46°F65%1017.3 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX14 mi52 minSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F46°F69%1017.1 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX16 mi52 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast59°F46°F64%1017.9 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX20 mi52 minSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F46°F65%1016.9 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX21 mi52 minSE 410.00 miOvercast56°F48°F75%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from ADS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10
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1 day agoNE5N5N8NE8
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N8NE7NE5--NE4E5E6NE7NE5NE5E7
2 days agoSW8
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N8N3N3CalmNW3N9NE8
G17
NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.