Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:27 PM   Moonset 3:27 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 181044 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 544 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Another warm and muggy day is in store, but will be followed by a chance of storms late afternoon through this evening and a cool- down tonight and tomorrow as the next cold front pushes through the area. A few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Other than minor grid updates to account for morning trends, the ongoing forecast is on track.

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Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/

A dominant upper low can be seen on IR imagery spiraling over southern Manitoba tonight, with a shortwave extending from the low southwest through the U.S Rockies. The shortwave will swing through the Plains on Thursday, sending a cold front south into North and Central Texas and bringing the next chance of thunderstorms to the region. The stronger lift associated with the upper level system will be focused well north of the forecast area from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley, which may limit the coverage of thunderstorms locally. Will hence keep POPs in the chance to slight chance range and focused along the surface boundary.

The latest timing based on recent runs of convection allowing models still looks like storm initiation around 4 or 5 PM somewhere along a line from Sherman to the DFW Metroplex to Goldthwaite. With good instability and decent shear in place, any storm which develops would have the potential to become severe with large hail being the primary threat. Damaging wind gusts would be the secondary threat, with the better wind potential being in the evening when cell mergers and subsequent clusters or lines may contain bowing segments. The tornado potential appears low based on unimpressive amounts of low level helicity, though a spin-up tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

The overall severe threat will continue as storms push through the southeast third of the region Thursday night out ahead of the front, with all activity exiting by midnight. Cooler and drier air will enter Thursday night and Friday as the front pushes into Southeast Texas. Temperatures will switch from 10 degrees above normal on Thursday to 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Friday, with Friday afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s in the northwest to the upper 70s in the southeast.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 248 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ Update: /Friday night through Wednesday/

The long term portion of the forecast has not changed much over the past few days and the detailed discussion below covers the specifics very well. We still anticipate an extended period of rain and storms this weekend with the highest rain chances on Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will still be the primary hazard.
The rain will come to an end Sunday but will return to the forecast around the middle of next week.

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Previous Discussion: /Friday Through Mid Next Week/

By daybreak Friday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to be slowly drifting or stalled near or just north of the Hill Country as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper-level flow.
Moisture advection overtop of the shallow frontal surface should quickly yield widespread dense cloud cover early Friday. By the afternoon, an approaching weak shortwave trough embedded within the zonal flow aloft...in combination with the established isentropic ascent regime...will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the 850mb front, which is expected to still be draped across North Texas (near the Red River). Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night in response to increasing large scale lift associated with another weak shortwave shifting across Central/South Texas.

While buoyancy will be somewhat limited, there should be sufficient elevated instability for convective elements/embedded thunderstorms capable of producing small hail late Friday into early Saturday. With PWAT values near or exceeding the 90th percentile of the daily climatological mean, locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding impacts on Saturday, especially wherever higher convective rain rates materialize. The prevailing drought and drier antecedent conditions in the southwest portions of our forecast area will likely limit most flood concerns in this area. However, ponding or minor nuisance flooding cannot be completely ruled out. Conversely, given the degree of soil saturation in areas east of the I-35 corridor and current reservoir conditions, rapid surface runoff and minor river flooding issues are likely to emerge this weekend. In general, 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected with isolated higher totals possible. There is a 30-40% chance that total accumulated rainfall exceeds 3 inches in a few different areas across North and Central Texas.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave should bring an end to rain chances by Sunday afternoon with drier conditions prevailing through early next week. In contrast to the unseasonably hot temperatures in the short term period, temperatures will fall from near/slightly below normal to as much as 15-20 degrees cooler than 1991-2020 averages by Sunday. This is due to weak cold air advection behind the cold front in combination with rain chances and extensive cloud cover. The surface high will shift east over the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday, allowing for onshore flow to return. The return of southerly winds and ample sunshine early next week will lead to a quick warm up with highs back into the 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Low clouds have been patchy overnight, but appear to be filling in this morning. Will keep MVFR in all TAFs through the morning with improvement expected around midday. A cold front (which recently entered the TX Panhandle) will bring a chance of storms this afternoon and evening. Have kept VCTS from 21-01Z in the Metroplex TAFs, and 23-03Z at KACT based on the latest guidance.
Coverage still appears too low to add a TEMPO but will continue to monitor. The cold front will bring a shift to north winds tonight as convection exits to the south.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 58 70 60 66 / 40 20 10 60 90 Waco 88 63 74 65 75 / 30 40 10 30 90 Paris 82 57 66 55 59 / 40 30 20 60 90 Denton 88 54 68 56 63 / 40 10 10 70 100 McKinney 86 56 67 58 64 / 40 20 10 70 90 Dallas 89 59 71 62 66 / 40 30 10 60 90 Terrell 85 59 70 61 67 / 30 40 10 50 90 Corsicana 86 63 74 65 75 / 30 40 10 40 80 Temple 87 63 75 64 77 / 20 40 10 30 80 Mineral Wells 90 55 69 58 66 / 30 5 10 70 100

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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