Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Princeton, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday March 26, 2017 6:13 AM CDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Princeton, TX
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.15, -96.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kfwd 261002 aaa
afdfwd
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
502 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Discussion
A rather cool and dry air mass is in place across north texas
early this morning. However, dew points in the mid to upper 60s
are just to our south. As a shortwave emerges from the rockies,
this mt air mass will surge northward as an effective warm front.

Initially, there may be some mild reductions in visibility as the
dew points upstream currently exceed the surface temperatures
across our area, but no significant fog is expected. The evening
shift was keen to notice the depth of the moisture in south texas
is greater than earlier progged. This is improving our confidence
in the quality of the boundary layer moisture that will be
available at peak heating this afternoon. A cap will likely
prevent convective initiation until late in the day when both
surface heating and arriving lift aloft gradually erode it. While
this may delay (or prevent) thunderstorm development, it will also
limit the depth of the mixing today. This will maintain ample
boundary layer moisture, and with temperatures soaring into the
80s with full sun, will result in MLCAPE values in excess of
2000j/kg.

Another player in our thunderstorm game is the dryline, which may
struggle to penetrate the unstable air within north texas. The
boundary will initially develop as return flow creates a moisture
discontinuity on the high plains of west texas this morning. With
the deepening low in kansas, the mid-level flow will be most
favorable for dryline propagation farther north. This will focus
the best moisture convergence within oklahoma this afternoon. To
our west, the boundary may only progress about 100 miles between
mid-morning and late afternoon. It is unlikely to reach our
southwestern counties at all (at least until the front arrives
Monday morning). While surface heating may allow for isolated
cells deep within the unstable air late in the day, the portion
of the dryline within western north texas may be inhibited by
greater heating on the dry side. Some guidance is impressed enough
with the instability and the forward motion of the boundary that
it can't help but convect, but the consensus among mesoscale
guidance is for the initiation to be primarily across oklahoma
with perhaps a few rogue cells south of the red river late this
afternoon.

While this event remains conditional on the extent of the
development within north texas, any storms that develop may
quickly become severe. Supercell structures will be favored, and
although the greatest hail growth potential will be farther north
where the mid-level air closer to the cyclone will be quite cold,
our rotating updrafts would be of such intensity that they could
produce very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. The
tornado threat may increase into the evening hours as a low-level
jet in excess of 40 knots ensues and the best forcing aloft
arrives. Additional development may occur after the traditional
peak heating time period. The richer moisture may result in lower
lcls, which will only fall further as the boundary layer cools.

With the dryline unlikely to make any additional progress after
sunset, buoyant (likely untapped) air will remain across much of
north texas. The best forcing will be north of i-20, but as a cold
front eventually overtakes the dryline late tonight into Monday
morning, additional development will be possible farther south
within our cwa. The intensity of the convection will likely wane
after midnight as the boundary layer instability further
diminishes and the best forcing passes to the east. This will also
slow the surface boundary, which may never actually exit the cwa.

This will keep the gulf moisture right on our doorstep. And as the
next more powerful system digs into the four corners, this
moisture will surge back across north texas. As large-scale
forcing for ascent begins arriving on Tuesday, some showers and
thunderstorms may develop, particularly across western portions of
north texas. In addition, dryline convection across west texas
Tuesday afternoon will race eastward into the richer moisture.

This activity could impact our western zones late in the day into
the evening hours. A very unstable boundary layer and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will help the cells maintain their intensity
with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats late
Tuesday. If a sufficient cold pool is able to develop, a linear
mcs with an attendant wind threat may travel deep into north texas
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This could disrupt the
evolution of the activity the remainder of the day, or this
complex may blend seamlessly with additional rounds of heavy rain
and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture flux within and above
the boundary layer will provide a continuous supply of fuel as
subsequent rounds of lift arrive during the day Wednesday.

Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches, extraordinary
precipitation efficiency, and training echoes will all increase
the likelihood for areas of heavy rainfall and the potential for
flooding issues. Precipitation deficiencies in recent weeks may
reduce the flooding impacts, but this event has the potential to
produce some of the highest 24-hour rainfall totals we have seen
in 2017.

The rain chances will end on Thursday, but again, the interlude
between systems will be short. Another deep low will dig into the
desert southwest late in the week, taking a similar southerly
track to its predecessor. This may ruin outdoor plans for the
first weekend of april, but the spring rainy season has clearly
begun.

25

Aviation
/issued 1149 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017/
light mostly easterly winds will become southeasterly at 5 to 8
knots overnight. Low clouds over south texas will spread northward
overnight and may move into the waco area toward 12z and into the
metroplex TAF sites after daybreak. Thus have indicated a tempo
bkn015 at kact from 12 to 16z and a tempo bkn020 at the metroplex
taf sites for the 13 to 16z period.

Southerly winds will be on the increase Sunday as a lee side
trough deepens. Expect south winds 10-12 knots at 13z to increase
to 15-17 knots by 16z with some gusts of 25 knots possible through
the afternoon. Although a capping inversion will be in place,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form along the dryline by
mid afternoon mainly along and north of the i-20 corridor. Thus
have placed vcts in the metroplex TAF sites for the 21z through
00z period. Some MVFR ceilings should spread northward again
Sunday night, thus have indicated bkn020 at 04z at waco and 06z
at kdfw.

58

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 84 59 80 57 81 / 30 30 5 0 20
waco 84 60 83 60 81 / 20 20 10 5 20
paris 80 59 76 54 78 / 10 60 20 0 10
denton 82 56 78 54 79 / 30 30 5 0 20
mckinney 81 59 78 54 79 / 30 40 10 0 20
dallas 84 61 81 59 81 / 30 40 5 0 20
terrell 83 62 79 57 81 / 20 40 10 0 20
corsicana 84 62 81 61 81 / 20 30 10 0 20
temple 85 61 84 60 82 / 20 20 10 5 20
mineral wells 87 53 80 55 79 / 20 10 0 0 30

Fwd watches/warnings/advisories
None.

82/25


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX6 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair48°F46°F93%1011.8 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX22 mi26 minSE 513.00 miClear54°F46°F77%1011.8 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX23 mi38 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F100%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from TKI (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrW11W11W12W10W10NW13
G20
NW15
G21
NW14
G18
NW6W6W8W8W8N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS5CalmCalm
1 day agoS16
G25
S18
G23
S17
G24
S17
G23
W11S11S17S13SE10S18S14
G20
S11S12S10S10SW7W8W17
G25
W11
G19
W18
G26
W19
G26
W16
G24
W13
G22
W9
2 days agoS12S12S15S20
G27
S18
G25
S18
G27
S23
G33
S17
G32
S27
G33
S23
G33
S23
G31
S24
G34
S19S19S20S18
G25
S22
G29
SE17
G25
S22
G29
S23
G32
S21
G29
S15
G20
S11S16

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.