Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Princeton, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:44PM Monday October 23, 2017 6:33 AM CDT (11:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Princeton, TX
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location: 33.15, -96.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 230856
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
356 am cdt Mon oct 23 2017

Short term
Today and tonight
the upper level trough that drove yesterday's cold front and rain
through the region has now closed off into an upper level low
moving northeast through arkansas. This low will continue moving
northeast, pivoting around a larger upper level trough and
disturbance currently moving southeast across the northern
plains. This new trough will continue to dig southeast into the
midwest today and tonight, leaving north and central texas in
northwest flow aloft. As the upper level trough progresses
southeast today, it will push another front across the region
late this afternoon and evening.

A surface high is currently centered along and south of our
southern counties and will continue to slowly slide south today.

Light and variable winds are currently occurring across the
region, but will take on a more southwesterly component later this
morning, then become westerly before the front arrives around 4
pm. Westerly winds above the surface and (mostly) clear skies,
along with some compressional warming ahead of the front, are
expected to push high temperatures into the upper 70s and lower
80s today. Some locations may even rise into the mid 80s. A few
high clouds are possible today, but we will likely see some more
high clouds late tonight.

The front will arrive dry as the atmosphere is still parched
behind yesterday's front. Breezy winds of 10-15 mph are expected
as the front arrives, and we will likely continue to see some
higher wind gusts into the overnight hours. Forecast soundings
indicate the lower levels may remain mixed allowing stronger winds
above the surface to mix down. If this trend in the models
continues today, wind gusts may need to be increased overnight.

Cold and dry air advection behind the front is expected to yield
overnight lows in the 40s and lower 50s.


Long term
Our departing system has become a closed low, but despite the
impressive stratospheric intrusion the PV fields continue to
indicate, it has somehow maintained control of the polar jet
upstream. Water vapor imagery is already showing some northward
movement of the low, and guidance agrees that it will do a
fujiwhara dance with its parent trough on Tuesday before the two
features marry over the great lakes. This will set up a 100-kt+
northerly jet from the 60th parallel all the way into north texas,
tapping chilly cp air from northwestern canada that will arrive
in the southern plains late in the week. In the meantime, dry
autumn weather will prevail. Other than a few strands of cirrus in
the jet, skies will be clear until our third and strongest front
of the week arrives.

The second in our frontal trilogy this week will make Tuesday
noticeably cooler than today. Gusty northwest winds will prevail
much of the day. Even with full sun, temperatures will take the
better part of the day to reach 70f. Locations north of the i-20
corridor will likely remain in the 60s. Temperatures will plunge
into the 40s Tuesday night. If the winds are able to go calm, a
few spots may dip into the 30s Wednesday morning, but the current
forecast will keep just enough wind in the surface layer to avoid
this. The postfrontal air mass may be too dry, but with sub-
freezing dew points west of the i-35 corridor, this will need to
be scrutinized carefully for frost potential.

The thin layer of cold air will quickly erode on Wednesday, and a
pleasant afternoon will follow. The warming trend will continue
into Thursday when breezy south and southwest winds push
temperatures back above normal. With enough of a westerly
component, western zones may reach 90f. With relative humidity
values falling below 30 percent, there may be some fire weather
concerns, but the recent rainfall that kick-started the autumn
growing season may have provided enough fuel moisture to limit
wildfire initiation.

The GFS cmc consensus has sped up the arrival of our late week
front. The latest ECMWF (23 00z) is also trending toward an
earlier fropa, but its solution still lags behind the others. As
the trough over the eastern half of the country deamplifies, our
flow will become more zonal in advance of the front. But once an
air mass of the magnitude is charging down the plains, it
typically has enough inertia to continue. Thus, will favor the
quicker arrival (now Thursday night). Low rain chances will linger
into Friday night and Saturday. This doesn't appear to be a good
setup for much postfrontal rain, but since the pop forecast is by
definition probabilistic, this will cover the slower wetter ecmwf.

Even if the clouds quickly clear, Friday and Saturday should still
be unseasonably cool with our red river counties peaking in the
50s. Some locations will see morning lows in the 30s Saturday and
Sunday. Sunday could be frosty for some, but have kept much of the
region safely in the 40s.


Aviation issued 1127 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017
vfr conditions will prevail through 12z Tuesday. A surface high
that is currently centered southwest of kbwd at 04z Monday will
sink south southeastward into the northwestern gulf of mexico
during the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, another cold front will move
down the plains in the northwesterly flow aloft. Light northwest
winds will become southwest at around 8 knots overnight tonight.

As the cold front moves through the metroplex and waco late
afternoon, winds will shift back around to the northwest and then
north at around 12 to 14 knots.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 83 53 70 45 76 0 0 0 0 0
waco 83 50 73 43 77 0 0 0 0 0
paris 78 48 67 42 72 0 0 0 0 0
denton 82 49 70 42 75 0 0 0 0 0
mckinney 82 50 69 43 74 0 0 0 0 0
dallas 83 54 71 47 76 0 0 0 0 0
terrell 82 51 71 42 74 0 0 0 0 0
corsicana 80 51 70 43 75 0 0 0 0 0
temple 83 50 74 43 77 0 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 82 47 70 40 78 0 0 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories

82 25

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX6 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair46°F45°F96%1019.9 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX22 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair53°F43°F69%1020 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX23 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair46°F44°F93%1020 hPa

Wind History from TKI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW7NW5NW6NW8NW14NW13NW12N14N14
1 day agoSE13S10S12S10S12S10S13S14S17
2 days agoCalmE4SE3SE11SE10S11S13S17S16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.