Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:22 PM   Moonset 3:52 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 192015 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 134 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ /Through Saturday Night/

The cold front activating thunderstorms later yesterday in central and eastern portions of the forecast area is now positioned just south of the region with surface winds at all sites from the north. Temperatures currently range from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the far north and in the lower 70s in the far south. Most of the forecast area is mostly cloudy as the atmosphere remains somewhat saturated in multiple layers aloft to the north of the boundary. Some breaks in the clouds through the afternoon are possible, especially in northern and far southern zones. A few showers are possible in far southern to southeastern zones this afternoon closer to the frontal boundary, but the onset of another round of precipitation should hold off until late tonight in a large majority of locations.

Starting tonight, the previous forecast seems mostly on track with a weak disturbance embedded in the westerlies aloft approaching north central Texas and imparting lift to the region along and north of the boundary, which will likely stall near the far southern border of the forecast area. There will be elevated instability (i.e., based above the surface) available to support increasing shower and scattered thunderstorm development late tonight through the morning hours tomorrow. Some small, non- severe, hail cannot be ruled out with these elevated storms. Any potential for isolated severe storms (with mainly a hail and wind threat) should be confined to far southern portions of the forecast area midday tomorrow through tomorrow evening, closer to the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall tomorrow still looks to be the chief concern as the lift from the aforementioned disturbance, combined with the elevated frontal boundary and relatively high precipitable water values (~1.5 inches), produces thunderstorm capable of heavy downpours. The entire forecast area is in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow through tomorrow night with WPC most likely rainfall expectations ranging from 1 to 2 inches. Short range ensemble guidance suggests some locally higher amounts will be possible.
This rain could result in some pockets of flooding and will likely result in some delayed river rises.

Otherwise, expect not much in the way of a diurnal range tomorrow with clouds and rain on the north side of the surface front. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s north to lower 60s south with highs tomorrow only 5 to 10 degrees above these marks.
Precipitation should be exiting to the east later tomorrow night with lows by daybreak Sunday mainly ranging from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

SHV / BB

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Sunday Through Next Friday/

The weather across North Central Texas will trend a lot more favorable on Sunday as precipitation clears to the east, mainly before daybreak. Clearing from north to south will lag the precipitation clearing by several hours, but we do have confidence that skies will range from mostly clear in the north to partly cloudy in the south by early to mid afternoon. North winds will be a bit breezy, but the previous rain should forgo much wildfire concern. Highs will generally only range from 60 to 65 degrees, which is at least 10 degrees below average for the date. The theme of cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday night into Monday with lows at daybreak Monday mainly in the 40s with highs Monday afternoon mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will trend back to average on Monday night into Tuesday as surface high pressure quickly exits to the east and southerly low level flow commences. The warming trend will continue through the midweek with lows in the mid 60s and highs at least around 80 degrees by Wednesday night into Thursday. Current long range blended model guidance suggests this warming trend will continue into at least Friday. A weak disturbance passing well to the north may get some isolated to widely scattered showers (cannot rule out a few thunderstorms) going in the warm air advection regime starting Tuesday night and going through Thursday. Obviously clouds will be increasing over this time range as well. NWP guidance still is lacking a strong consensus in specifics of what will transpire across the forecast area starting Thursday and going into the weekend as a parade of disturbances push east from the Western CONUS starting toward the middle of next week. The loose consensus is that one of these disturbances will significantly brush north Texas by Friday, although it is possible tangible impacts could begin a day earlier (and also last well into the weekend). Needless to say, some severe weather and/or heavy rain threat could manifest by the end of next week, although any further details than this will likely have to wait for better NWP consensus to be reached. SHV / 50

AVIATION
/Issued 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ /18z TAFs/

Satellite imagery from early this afternoon continues to show mostly cloudy skies across the region. As such, CIGs continue to fluctuate between low VFR and MVFR for all terminals this morning.
The exception has been for KACT where MVFR CIGs have prevailed.
This will remain the case through the rest of the afternoon and even into the evening hours. Currently CIGs range from around 020-040 for all the DFW airports while Waco Regional remains around 020-025. Unfortunately, CIGs will only deteriorate as we move into the evening and overnight hours with more widespread MVFR CIGs settling in. Around 20/07z, we have introduced some IFR CIGs at 009 for all the DFW airports with Waco falling to around 007. Otherwise, looks like some showers and maybe some drizzle will move in for the DFW airports around 20/10z and have introduced SHRA and VCTS for this time frame. /33/


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 59 49 65 48 / 80 90 90 0 0 Waco 59 64 49 62 45 / 60 90 100 5 0 Paris 51 56 47 63 43 / 70 90 80 5 0 Denton 53 58 46 63 43 / 80 90 90 0 0 McKinney 54 58 48 64 44 / 80 90 90 0 0 Dallas 56 60 50 65 47 / 80 90 90 0 0 Terrell 55 59 48 63 44 / 80 90 100 5 0 Corsicana 59 64 50 63 46 / 70 90 100 5 0 Temple 61 67 49 62 46 / 40 90 90 0 0 Mineral Wells 54 59 46 64 44 / 80 90 90 5 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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