Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crooked Creek, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:58 AM EDT (13:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:55PMMoonset 2:42AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crooked Creek, GA
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location: 33.22, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 241146
afdffc
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
746 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Prev discussion issued 445 am edt Thu may 24 2018
short term today through Friday ...

the area of mid-level low pressure and associated vort MAX is still
in place over the area, with little changes in the moist airmass
we've been in for days. Pw's will still be high (1.8-2.0 inches)
through the short term so any storms will be efficient rainfall
producers with high rainfall rates possible. Flash flooding could
also be a concern for any areas where heavy rain lingers.

The complex of storms currently on radar in west central ga has been
producing heavy rainfall in the area, but should diminish some by
later this morning. The flash flood watch is still in place through
15z and based on model trends it currently looks okay. Will continue
to monitor activity to determine if any changes to the watch are
necessary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to
fire up this afternoon and into the evening. Although activity will
be mostly diurnally driven, activity could again linger into the
overnight hours tonight as well. Expecting scattered showers and
thunderstorms again on Friday with a focus of precip in east central
ga as the mid-level wave moves northeast. Similar to today a strong
thunderstorm isn't out of the question with a threat for heavy
rainfall.

Qpf values through the short term period are around 1 to 2.5
inches with the bulk of the precip in central ga. As such, wpc
currently has central ga in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
today and a marginal to slight risk in far east central ga for
Friday.

Max temps are generally in the 80s today, with 70s and 80s for
Friday. Low temps are expected to be in the 60s.

Reaves
long term Friday night through Wednesday ...

rain is still expected every day through the extended... Tho there
may be a glimmer of hope just outside of forecast period for a
pattern change. As we begin this forecast period on Friday
night... Pacific jet energy will help dig a trough across the western
gom vicinity... While weak ridging downstream of this feature tries
to maintain existence across the SE and mid atlantic. A brief
glimpse of the tail end of several hi-res model runs reveals the
potential for a weak MCV to linger in place under the weak flow
pattern aloft which suggest that convection will likely be ongoing
into the night. This is supported by a plume of enhanced mid level
moisture noted in both the 00z ec and gfs. At this point it is
difficult to discern how long this convection will last but do think
its possible for it to last into Saturday morning. This being said
this feature looks to move north with time so could find the
atmosphere being somewhat more stable Saturday with less of a chance
for widespread thunderstorm development during hours of peak
heating. Therefore have lowered pops for Saturday for now... Tho
given absolutely no change in airmass it will still be possible for
at least some convection to initiate. Saturday's forecast may
ultimately depend on evolution of Friday Friday night MCV if even
present .

As if this was not enough to focus on... Will also be closely
monitoring the potential for a tropical wave across the southern
gulf to strengthen into a tropical depression and potentially merge
with the developing trough to its north. For Saturday... This system
will not impact the local area altho very heavy rainfall will exist
to our south across the eastern gom and florida. By day's end
Saturday... The low should be located somewhere in the east-central
gulf where strengthening should be well underway given absence of
land intrusions, moist air, and low shear. NHC currently outlines
this system as having a 70 percent chance of reaching at least
subtropical tropical depression status.

Will see the tropical system begin to impact the local area by
Sunday as most guidance ECMWF nam ensembles indicate the low will
track into the northern gom. This will place the CWA on the wetter
side and will allow for the influx of deep tropical moisture to
affect the state. Therefore... Does not really matter the status of
the tropical system in the end because we will be receiving heavy
rainfall regardless. And unfortunately... This system will aid in the
development of an omega blocking pattern across the CONUS through at
least Tuesday. This means the feature will hardly move through that
time period and continue to create the potential for tropical
rainfall across the region. Right now current QPF values Sunday-
Tuesday are forecast in 2-4 inch range in addition to what has
already been received the last week or so. Flooding issues certainly
are a concern at this point. In term of severe weather... It is way
too early to determine and will rely on the evolution of the system
in the coming days.

As the blocking pattern breaks down by Wednesday... Lingering lift
from the remnants of the system will exist and allow for continued
chances of rain and thunderstorms. However... There may be light at
the end of the tunnel as drier mid level ridging may try to build in
by the end of next week.

Kovacik

Aviation
12z update...

mainly ifr with lifr conditions across the TAF sites, with vcsh
at csg and patchy dense fog near ahn. Expecting lifr ifr
conditions to lift by 14-15z withVFR conditions by 18z. Expecting
more scattered convection across the area this afternoon, with a
tempo for tsra from 20z- 00z. Winds will remain light with an
easterly component, less than 7 kts during the day, with calm
winds possible at times through the forecast period.

Atl confidence... 12z update...

low to medium confidence on timing of ifr MVFR cigs. Medium
confidence on all other elements.

Reaves

Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 82 66 79 66 80 60 70 50
atlanta 82 68 79 68 60 60 60 50
blairsville 81 63 76 63 60 50 60 50
cartersville 85 68 80 67 50 40 50 40
columbus 84 70 85 69 60 50 60 50
gainesville 81 66 76 66 70 60 70 50
macon 81 69 83 67 70 60 70 50
rome 87 68 82 67 40 30 40 40
peachtree city 83 68 80 67 60 50 60 50
vidalia 83 70 84 69 80 60 50 40

Ffc watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch until 11 am edt this morning for the following
zones: chattahoochee... Crawford... Crisp... Dooly... Harris...

houston... Macon... Marion... Muscogee... Peach... Schley... Stewart...

sumter... Talbot... Taylor... Upson... Webster.

Short term... Reaves
long term... .Kovacik
aviation... Reaves


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 63 mi78 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 71°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milledgeville, Baldwin County Airport, GA5 mi63 minE 510.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from MLJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE4E4
1 day agoS4CalmSW3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmS3SE4CalmW6
G15
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2 days agoSE4SE5SE3SE5SE5SE3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3E3E3CalmSE3SE4S3SE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Robins AFB, GA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.