Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Crooked Creek, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday March 18, 2018 11:14 AM EDT (15:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crooked Creek, GA
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location: 33.22, -83.25     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 181426
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
1026 am edt Sun mar 18 2018

Looking good for this update with most of the activity remaining
west of the area for the balance of today. Warm front which is
further north than models had projected yesterday should provide a
focus for storm development but will largely be tied to the
arrival of shortwave energy progressing through westerly flow
aloft. This is occurring currently over portions of mississippi
but should translate east with time to affect portions of alabama
and then finally our SW zones to include columbus by late this
afternoon. Current grids ramping activity up very quickly to
categorical by 00z looks on target and limited changes planned.

Severe potential continues to look to be low across northern ga
through this evening but has increased slightly across central ga.

Current SPC damaging wind threat looks warranted with slight risk.

Could see severe risk expanding even further north than this if
nam projections of instability are correct and our convection
isn'tcutoff by gulf storms.


Prev discussion issued 732 am edt Sun mar 18 2018

near term forecast in pretty good shape. Low clouds and some
patchy fog affecting areas south of a newnan to louisville line
with mainly high clouds elsewhere. These low clouds should burn
off by 11a. Still on track for light precip to move in from sw
after 5p tho recent hrrr runs and 06z 3km NAM showing a little
more coverage than earlier runs. Current pops fairly high tonight
so in good shape.

prev discussion... Issued 435 am edt Sun mar 18 2018
short term today through Monday ...

primary concerns in the short term period are onset of warm
advection showers tonight and timing, identification of threats
and intensity of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

Warm moist advection to kick in this evening with scattered to
numerous showers likely spreading across the forecast area from
southwest to northeast after 6pm. Instability should be
insufficient at this time for much deep convection but could see
elevated thunderstorms in the evening. This batch of warm
advection convection should push out of the area or at least
diminish greatly in coverage after 3am give or take. Stratus and
some fog will be pretty widespread after that time.

As vigorous shortwave moves east over tn valley, broad and
unusually strong westerly flow to the south remains in place. In
my experience with severe weather forecasts both here and in the
southern plains, this pattern has a great deal of potential to
produce atypically high instability and very strong deep vertical
wind shear with supercells the dominant mode. It has been over a
year since this area has seen supercell storms of this magnitude
(jan 22 2017). Large hail and a few tornadoes will be likely.

Given MLCAPE values 2000-2500 j kg and 0-6km bulk shear of
60-70kts, hail will likely be much larger than the jan 2017 event
with sizes of 2 to 3 inches likely. If there is a bright side to
this story, it could be the low level shear, 0-1km bulk shear is
only progged of 30-35kts. This is still quite strong and should be
sufficient for a few tornadoes, but unlikely to see the larger
long-tracked tornadoes that we saw with the jan 2017 event or
other notable supercell-based tornado events and outbreaks.

Interestingly, cips top 15 analogs based on 00z NAM valid 00z tue
do not contain any events in the last 10 years, so could be some
analogs with lower storm report density and thus lower analog
probabilities. Top analogs is apr 3 1998 which produced widespread
hail over north ga but other dates have hit or miss coverage of
reports and not too many tornado events though there area some.

Other bright side of supercell events is that coverage probability
of any point seeing severe storms will be lower than with linear
events. Not something you want to take a chance on however, plan
accordingly. Have kept pops closer to guidance and perhaps lower
with mainly 40-60pct Monday afternoon and evening.

Will certainly keep a close watch on this and will continue with
steady pace of impact briefings.

long term Monday night through Saturday ...

as a surface low moves across tennessee Monday evening, widespread
thunderstorms will be ongoing and rapidly progressing eastward
Monday night ahead of the attendant cold front. The severe
thunderstorm threat will have increased by this point with
substantial surface instability and favorable shear in place.

Supercellular convection with the threat for large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes will be a concern during the evening hours. The
highest severe threat will exist across portions of north and
central georgia outside of the influence of the wedge which, though
retreating, will help limit instability across northeast georgia.

The overall severe threat will then quickly diminish from the
northwest as the cold front sweeps southeastward through early
Monday morning.

Additional showers will return on Tuesday as a followup upper wave
and cold front push into the region. Northwest winds will pickup
late Tuesday behind this secondary cold front, and significantly
cooler temperatures will advect into the state. Before the light
rain ends, some brief rain snow mix may be observed across the high
elevations of far north georgia during the early morning hours
Wednesday; however, accumulations or impacts would not be a concern.

Wednesday will bring clearing skies and below average temperatures
with a sunny and cool Thursday also on tap. Temperatures will
rebound by Friday with the next chance of rain likely holding off
until Saturday morning at the earliest.


12z update...

ifr CIGS south of atl metro airports should dissipate by 16z,
otherwiseVFR conditions thru 00z mon. Rain clouds will spread
from SW to NE after 22z tonight bringing atl metro airports down
to MVFR by 01z and 1500-2500ft CIGS by 08z and ifr by 11-12z. Sfc
winds will remain NW 6-8kts today but switch back to SE 3-5kts
after 03z in most areas.

Atl confidence... 12z update...

medium confidence on CIGS vsby likelihood and timing.

High confidence on all other elements.


Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 74 53 65 53 5 70 70 80
atlanta 73 55 68 54 10 80 70 70
blairsville 67 48 61 47 5 80 70 80
cartersville 71 54 69 51 10 70 70 70
columbus 78 58 74 58 30 100 50 50
gainesville 70 52 62 51 5 70 70 80
macon 78 57 73 59 10 90 60 60
rome 71 53 70 51 10 70 70 70
peachtree city 74 55 71 54 10 80 60 60
vidalia 80 58 73 63 5 90 70 70

Ffc watches warnings advisories

Short term... Deese
long term... .Bdl
aviation... Deese

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 63 mi34 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 62°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milledgeville, Baldwin County Airport, GA5 mi39 minW 810.00 miFair70°F55°F60%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MLJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmW8
1 day agoW7W11
2 days agoW5W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Robins AFB, GA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.