Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 3:17 PM   Moonset 3:49 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 717 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely. Mon - NE winds 15 kt. A slight chance of showers. Mon night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 68 degrees.

AMZ300 717 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A slow moving front will bring unsettled weather to the region today through early next week. High pressure will then return and prevail into the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KCAE 190801 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 401 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Moisture then increases Friday and Saturday as a cold front moves into the area. With strong heating, diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. The front becomes stationary near or slightly south of the area Sunday. Deep moisture and lift across the area will result in numerous showers Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be well below normal in the 60s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weak shortwave is moving through Georgia early this morning with thickening mid-level clouds pushing into the CSRA. While radar shows some light returns moving into eastern Georgia, forecast soundings indicate a fairly significant dry layer in the low levels with much of the rain likely evaporating before reaching the ground. May get some light rain or sprinkles in the CSRA early this morning, however.

In the wake of this shortwave, upper heights are expected to rise this afternoon into evening which will lead to highs similar to yesterday, in the mid to upper 80s. This will also work to preclude convective development with broad subsidence over the forecast area.
Warming temperatures aloft will also limit instability with forecast soundings trending less impressive than yesterday. Moderate destabilization still remains possible this evening with HRRR probs of sbCAPE > 1000 J/kg around 70 percent in the western portion of the forecast area. The most likely location for any storm development will be along the higher terrain in the Upstate which will move towards the forecast area by evening and along an area of enhanced surface convergence associated with a front near the NC/SC border. As a result, have scattered storms possible across the north with more isolated activity along and south of I-20. SPC continues to maintain a marginal risk for severe weather associated with any storms that do develop. With dry air aloft and strong low level lapse rates, there remains a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and a bit more limited severe hail risk as deep layer shear will be sufficient for storms to become more organized. With a loss of daytime heating, storms will likely dissipate before midnight. The front begins to shift south over the area Friday night into Saturday morning, although lows remain mild in the low to mid-60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure centered over the Plains states will build eastward through the day and a frontal boundary will sink south of the forecast area by 00z Sun. 500mb flow will be zonal across the region with some confluence due to shortwave energy moving through the Ohio Valley into the northeast and Mid- Atlantic states by Saturday evening. Despite above normal PWATs, expect any showers and convection to hold off until after 18z with increasing pops late afternoon and overnight as shortwave energy within the westerly flow moves into the forecast area.
Chances for convection will be related to the location of the front during the afternoon as surface instability will be maximized along and south of the boundary while more stable conditions expected on the cooler side of the boundary. Severe storms appear unlikely at this time. Max temperatures expected to range from the upper 70s deeper in the cooler air over the northern Midlands to upper 80s in the southeastern Midlands and CSRA closer to the boundary.

Phasing of a digging upper trough over the middle of the country and a weaker southern stream upper trough will result in weak surface low development on Sunday which will track eastward along the Gulf Coast on the stalled surface front.
Widespread rain is expected to develop over the forecast area with increasing isentropic lift Sunday afternoon. Overall rainfall amounts are expected to be around a half to three quarters of an inch. Strengthening low pressure off the coast should support CAD setup with well below normal max temperatures expected in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper trough axis will cross the forecast area on Monday and quickly shift offshore Monday night. Ensemble mean PWATs are below normal and drying further through the day which is a limiting factor for precipitation but enhanced mid level lapse rates due to 500mb temps around -22C during peak heating may lead to isolated showers mainly across the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA. Surface instability is nonexistent with the forecast area well into the cooler air north of the surface front near the FL/GA line. Cool wedge conditions may linger into Monday leading to uncertainty in max temperatures as there is large spread in the ensemble max T guidance but will lean toward the cool NBM guidance with highs in the mid 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday should feature a relatively dry air mass with PWATs below normal (50-90% of normal) and a general warming trend through the week. A weak frontal boundary is expected to move through the forecast area on Wednesday but with limited moisture and northwesterly flow chances of rain are very low.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

A shortwave is moving into the CSRA early this morning with increasing mid-level clouds moving over the terminals. This will limit the potential for fog at any of the terminals this morning, although a brief period of visibility restrictions remains possible at AGS. Otherwise, expect cumulus clouds to develop after sunrise today with winds increasing out of west between 5 to 10 knots. Isolated thunderstorms develop mainly late this afternoon into evening, although confidence in impacts specifically at the terminals is low so have not included mention in the TAFs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in restrictions Sunday into Monday with possible developing wedge conditions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

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Cuckolds Creek
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Fri -- 03:59 AM EDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:28 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:24 PM EDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:05 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Ashepoo
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:47 AM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:01 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:12 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:38 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ashepoo, Ashepoo River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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