Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bamberg, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:50PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:16 AM EST (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 314 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. A slight chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt.
Sat night..NW winds 5 kt.
Sun..N winds 5 kt.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 54 degrees.
AMZ300 314 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A warm front will lift north today. A cold front will advance through the area Thursday, followed by high pressure through early next week. Another cold front will move through next Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bamberg, SC
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location: 33.3, -81.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Columbia, SC
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Fxus62 kcae 230820
afdcae
area forecast discussion
national weather service columbia sc
320 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north of the forecast area today ahead of
an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through the
area late tonight and early Thursday morning. High pressure
behind the front will dominate Thursday and Friday. A weak cold
front will move through Friday night, reinforcing the high
pressure over the area through the weekend into early next week
with slowly moderating temperatures. The next cold front will
approach on Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Scattered areas of light rain were occurring in the warm
advection pattern early this morning. The precipitation should
remain light because of shallow moisture. Observation trends
support temperatures remaining above freezing even in the
extreme north section.

The models keep moisture shallow during the rest of the day
with general mid-level shortwave ridging. Believe showers will
be scattered in the warm advection pattern. The high-
resolution models display scattered coverage with some
concentration in coverage in a convergent pattern along a warm
front feature forecast to be lifting northward late this
morning and afternoon. There will be a strengthening low-level
jet with h85 wind increasing to near 50 knots. Believe gusty
wind will develop behind the warm front. The models have been
consistent maintaining surface-based stability so the gusts
should be limited and remain below lake wind advisory criteria.

This is supported by the GFS lamp.

There will be strong support for showers tonight with convergence
along the cold front, a 65-knot h85 jet, h5 shortwave trough,
and h25 jet right entrance region. We have forecasted categorical
pops. The guidance consensus supports rain totals near 1 inch.

Strong shear indicates a concern for severe thunderstorms but
the threat should remain low because of a lack of surface-based
instability.

The GFS lamp suggests general wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots
tonight. A lake wind advisory may be required.

Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast
today. Leaned toward the higher guidance tonight because of
cloudiness and mixing along the front.

Short term Thursday
Thursday morning, the front will have reached the eastern half
of the forecast area, and will move quickly out into the
atlantic by afternoon. Shower activity associated with the front
will likewise come to an end from west to east during the
morning hours, with plentiful sunshine in most areas by
afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will not change
much during the day as the increase in solar insolation is
counteracted by strong low level cold advection.

Thursday night, we should expect seasonably low temps with most
places a degree or two from freezing. The air mass in place
will have been modified a bit, cushioning us from a true arctic
invasion.

Friday, a reinforcing cold front will move through. The
atmosphere will have dried out, so no precipitation is expected,
but it will freshen up the winds a bit from the northwest and
continue the pattern of modest low level cold advection,
keeping high temps a couple of degrees below normal with the
mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
The region will remain between two winter jets over the weekend
into Monday, with the northern branch over the ohio valley and
new england, while the southern branch moves across the gulf of
mexico. This will support surface high pressure and dry weather.

Temps will start chilly on Saturday with lows in the 20s and
highs from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. As the
surface high slips southward, surface winds will turn to the
west and southwest, allowing temps to become a few degrees
warmer each day and night.

The next cold front will be in the vicinity on Tuesday. Models
and ensemble means are in impressively good agreement with
timing for a system 6 days away, but they do differ on the
amount of moisture coming with the front. The GFS and GEFS mean
indicate a better chance for showers with the front than the
ecmwf, but have kept it relatively simple for now with a slight
chance in the southeastern half of the fa, and low end chance
in the northwest.

Models diverge much more significantly after that time, and bear
watching.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Expect a period of ifr this morning. There may be some
improvement later in the day before widespread ifr conditions
develop tonight. Low-level wind shear will be an issue during
most of the 24-hour TAF period.

A warm front will be in the region through the middle of the
day and help cause ifr ceilings. There will be scattered areas
of light rain. There may be some improvement into the MVFR
category as the warm front lifts northward this afternoon.

There will be a strong low-level jet ahead of an approaching
cold front supporting low-level wind shear.

Moisture will become deep tonight along a strong cold front.

Expect widespread ifr conditions in showers. Instability is
forecast to remain weak with a diminished thunderstorm chance.

Shear will remain strong and with mixing along the front expect
gusty winds. The GFS lamp suggested gusts near 24 knots.

Extended aviation outlook...

widespread ifr conditions and gusty winds will occur during the
early morning hours Thursday. Drying will occur behind the cold
front later Thursday morning. It will remain breezy during the
rest of the day. A dry air mass should be in the region Friday
through Sunday withVFR conditions.

Hydrology
Minor flooding will continue on the congaree river due to recent
rainfall and upstream reservoir releases within the broad and
saluda river basins.

Equipment
The columbia, sc (kcae) WSR-88D is out of service due to a
faulty voltage regulator. The part will be ordered but an
estimated time of arrival is unknown at this time.

Cae watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Synopsis... 99
near term... 99
short term... 99
long term... 99
aviation... 99
hydrology... 99
equipment... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 57 mi56 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 40°F 1028.4 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 60 mi91 min N 1.9 47°F 1029 hPa46°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orangeburg, Orangeburg Municipal Airport, SC15 mi24 minE 410.00 miOvercast44°F39°F83%1028.4 hPa
Barnwell Regional Airport, SC19 mi22 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F41°F87%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from OGB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE5NE9E10E9E65E8E8E7E6E8NE5E6E6E5E6E5NE7E6E4E5E4
1 day agoN5N6N7N8N84NE8N6NE8NE9NE64E3E3NE3E3E4NE4NE4CalmNE6E5NE5E4
2 days agoSW8W10W14
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N4NW8NW11NW6NW5NW4N3CalmCalmN6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina
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Cuckolds Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:59 AM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:44 AM EST     -2.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:22 PM EST     4.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:17 PM EST     -2.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.53.83.42.20.6-1.2-2.6-2.9-2.2-0.80.92.53.74.34.23.31.90.2-1.4-2.2-2.1-1.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Ashepoo, Ashepoo River, South Carolina
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Ashepoo
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:32 AM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     -1.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:55 PM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:05 PM EST     -1.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.52.521.20.1-0.9-1.7-1.7-1.1-0.11.12.12.72.92.61.91-0.1-1-1.4-1.2-0.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Columbia, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.