Saturday, February24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:23PM Saturday February 24, 2018 9:47 PM CST (03:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:59PMMoonset 2:17AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 250342 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
942 pm cst Sat feb 24 2018

All the rain has exited the region, at least for the remainder of
the night. Another round of rain is expected across mainly
central texas beginning Sunday morning as another series of
disturbances sweeps across the region within the southwest flow
aloft. Severe weather is not expected, and the thunderstorm
coverage will likely be isolated.

For the update, adjusted temperatures a little based on current
trends. Afternoon temperatures in our western counties warmed into
the upper 60s; higher than expected. Clear skies in this area will
allow for radiational cooling, but temperatures are currently
several degrees warmer than previously expected, and thus will
likely only fall into the mid 30s instead of lower 30s. Cloud
cover will prevail across our southeastern counties where
temperatures will likely only fall in the upper 40s and 50s.

Fog development is still uncertain, primarily due to the coverage
of high clouds continuing through the night. Breaks in the high
clouds may allow for decent radiational cooling in some areas, and
thus the fog development and density may vary considerably across
short distances. Will keep a patchy fog mention across the region
through the night and monitor trends. At this time, am not
expecting widespread dense fog, but if pockets of dense fog do
occur, it will likely be after 3-4 am.


Aviation issued 618 pm cst Sat feb 24 2018
00z tafs
in the wake of the front that passed through earlier today,VFR
conditions are expected for the next several hours. However,
radiational fog will likely develop late tonight resulting in MVFR
visibilities. Confidence at this time is low in how widespread the
fog will be and how much visibility will be restricted, and
adjustments to the TAF may be needed through the night. It's
possible some airports are impacted by fog while others are not.

Light north and northwesterly winds this evening will eventually
become southeasterly Sunday morning. Another disturbance will move
across parts of central texas during the day tomorrow, and this
may generate showers as far north as kact. Hi-res guidance is in
good agreement to support a mention of vcsh at kact from 15-21z.

The chance of a rogue shower reaching dfw is small but not zero;
however, the potential is not enough to warrant a precipitation
mention in the dfw tafs. Otherwise, expect a mid level cloud deck
to spread across the region during the day tomorrow.


Short term issued 330 pm cst Sat feb 24 2018
rest of the weekend
a pacific cold front continues to surge into central texas and has
overtaken the earlier pre-frontal trough already this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the stubborn main mid level trough that lingered to our
west all last week has finally opened up and will continue
tracking east across the central southern plains this afternoon
and over the mid mississippi valley tonight. Due to corruption of
our warm sector environment this morning from numerous showers and
cloud cover, the severe threat for our southeast half of the cwa
has been mitigated somewhat. With the storm threat continuing to
shift south and east with the cold front, we are canceling both
the flood and tornado watches this afternoon. That being said,
instability and wind shear may still yield a few strong to
marginally severe storms across our southeast counties through
nightfall, before exiting the area with the cold front toward the
upper texas and southwest louisiana coastlines.

Clearing is already occurring across the northwest half of the cwa
where drying of the atmospheric column has been quite impressive.

A weak surface high pressure ridge will settle across the area
late tonight into Sunday morning with light northeast and east
winds expected. The more substantial drying at the surface will
likely remain relegated to our far west-northwest counties
overnight with surface dew points remaining above 40 degrees
further east. The spongy and very saturated wet soils will combine
with the light winds and clearing skies for some fog development,
especially east of i-35 where surface dew points remain up and
where dew point depressions should be very low. We cannot rule out
some patchy dense areas through mid morning across the eastern
counties where winds may briefly become calm during the pre-dawn
hours Sunday. In addition, lingering forcing will remain over
central texas through Sunday and combined with mid level moisture
should result in high-based, light convective activity. Mid level
lapse rates will in excess of 7 deg c km which may allow for a
few lightning strikes. Otherwise, the surface ridge will shift
over the lower mississippi valley with weak return flow across the
area. With little in the way of low level cold advection, highs
will recover into the 60s Sunday afternoon and would've even
warmed them up more if not for the lingering mid-high level
cloudiness, low convective chances, and wet soils.

Long term issued 330 pm cst Sat feb 24 2018
next week
as the last shortwave exits the region Sunday night and early Monday,
subsidence will finally take hold across the region through Monday
night as shortwave ridging takes hold aloft. Weak surface high
pressure lay across the area and result in light winds and the
potential for more fog potential by daybreak Monday. We'll likely
see highs rebound to between the mid 60s to lower 70s. Like
Sunday, I would've gone even warmer gone warmer Monday, if not
for all the water that will need to be evaporated off. The return
of south winds 10 to 15 mph Tuesday and Tuesday night will result
in return moisture from the gulf of mexico and a stratus intrusion
by Tuesday morning, as strong mid level energy drops south down
the u.S. West coast and over southern california and nevada by
Tuesday evening. This will result in increasing southwest flow
aloft over the texas. I expect a round of convection driven by
warm advection and isentropic upglide by Tuesday night with a
shortwave disturbance moving northeast out of mexico. No severe
weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, though a strong
elevated storm or two is possible with mid level lapse rates
steepening above an shallow elevated mixed layer (ie..Capping

Heading into Wednesday, it appears the once overly progressive gfs
has deepened and slowed down it's solution with this system and
more in line with the canadian and european solutions from
yesterday. A surface dryline should move into our western counties
and toward i-35 Wednesday afternoon, before being overtaken by
another pacific surface cold front Wednesday night. Though forcing
and deep bulk shear looks more than substantial enough for strong
to severe thunderstorms, it appears both instability at the
surface and aloft are relatively meager. However, I do know that
medium range models tend to struggle with environments this far
out. For now we'll just continue to carry good chances for showers
and thunderstorms and see how the kinematic and thermodynamic
details work themselves out before sounding the horn on any severe
weather threat. Temperatures will remain mild (or some would say
warm) the latter half of the week with a much needed drying
trend and continued mild temperatures.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 42 66 41 68 48 5 10 10 5 20
waco 41 65 37 70 46 10 30 10 5 30
paris 42 62 42 68 46 10 5 10 0 20
denton 39 66 35 68 44 5 5 10 5 20
mckinney 38 64 39 66 44 5 10 10 5 20
dallas 42 65 42 67 49 5 10 10 5 20
terrell 43 64 42 68 48 5 30 10 5 30
corsicana 47 65 43 68 50 10 30 10 5 30
temple 45 64 41 71 49 10 20 10 5 30
mineral wells 37 67 33 70 45 5 5 10 0 20

Fwd watches warnings advisories

82 30

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair55°F42°F62%1014.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair44°F42°F92%1015.2 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair45°F42°F91%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from LUD (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3NE4CalmSW3W14
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE5E6NE5E8NW3N4NE6NE7E3E3NW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.