Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:49PM Friday October 20, 2017 11:22 AM CDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:20AMMoonset 6:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 201517
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1017 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017

Update
Quick update this morning to lower pops a bit through the
afternoon hours. Scattered showers continue to develop and
dissipate just as quickly within a fairly thin layer of moisture
beneath a capping inversion. Without much ascent present, this
should be the extent of convection throughout the rest of the
afternoon with showers unable to harness the better instability
rooted above the cap. Otherwise, clouds will continue to be on
the increase as low stratus pushes north and additional mid-level
clouds arrive from the west associated with a weak approaching
shortwave.

Products for this update have already been transmitted.

-stalley

Aviation issued 709 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
12z tafs
concerns... MVFR CIGS and precipitation today. MVFR, possibly ifr,
cigs overnight.

Ceiling and precipitation trends are a challenge today due to
inconsistency amongst the models.VFR conditions start out the
taf period, but small pockets of MVFR CIGS have been developing
the past 1-2 hours. Some guidance indicates MVFR CIGS may become
more widespread late this morning for a few hours, while other
guidance keeps sct MVFR cloud bases with bkn lowVFR cigs. For the
metroplex tafs, will keep an optimistic forecast but prevail
bkn020 at kact from 16-21z. Brief patches of MVFR CIGS may impact
the dfw airports and will amend if the coverage becomes more
widespread.VFR conditions should prevail everywhere late this
afternoon before MVFR CIGS quickly return this evening. CIGS may
lower into ifr after midnight but will keep bkn010 at all the taf
sites for now.

Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will be moving north
across the region today. The best rain chances are just east of
the TAF sites and have opted to keep a vcsh mention for primarily
this reason; however, weakening lapse rates and a weak cap may
prevent most thunderstorm activity. An isolated thunderstorm could
impact any of the TAF airports, and if the potential looks better
this afternoon, a change to vcts may be warranted. Overall rain
coverage should be waning in the late afternoon hours but some
streamer showers may occur overnight.

Jldunn

Short term issued 400 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
today and tonight
after quiet weather for much of this past week, changes are
already occurring across parts of the region this morning. Upper
level troughing is now established across the region, and the
main shortwave within the trough is coming onshore in the pacific
northwest. However, several weaker disturbances are embedded in
the trough ahead of the main shortwave and will cross the region
today and tonight. Low and mid level moisture is already
increasing from the south and will continue to do so through
tonight.

With the moisture advection occurring early this morning, showers
have been moving north across our southeastern counties. Hi-res
model guidance and operational models are in very good agreement
that convection will continue to move across the region today,
mainly along and east of the interstate 35 corridor. Instability,
lapse rates, and shear values from soundings continue to support
a mention of thunderstorms. We still cannot rule out the potential
for a strong or marginally severe thunderstorm, but this
potential may be hampered by a weak cap and or weakening lapse
rates during the afternoon hours as indicated on forecast
soundings. More widespread strong severe storms are not expected
today.

Rain chances decrease this evening as the best moisture advection
shifts north of the region. However, we will keep low shower and
isolated storm chances in the forecast overnight as troughing
continues overhead and the low level jet increases to 30-40 kts,
providing some warm air advection isentropic lift. Rainfall totals
for today will range from zero in most of our western counties to
over a half inch in some areas in our eastern counties.

Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies today and tonight with winds
of 10-15 mph for much of the period. Tempered highs under guidance
in our eastern counties today due to rain and cloud cover, but
just about all locations will experience highs in the 70s. A few
locations in the west and south could reach 80 degrees. Overnight
lows will be noticeably warmer in the 60s and lower 70s.

Jldunn

Long term issued 400 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
rich gulf moisture will be in place across the region on Saturday.

A thick blanket of clouds will begin the day, and showers beneath
a capping inversion may be ongoing across our eastern zones.

Additional low-level moist advection will delay the erosion of the
low clouds. Our western zones will have the best chance of seeing
adequate sunshine, with the low clouds likely persisting in areas
east of the i-35 corridor.

A jet streak emerging from the rockies will veer the mid-level
flow, encouraging the development and eastward advancement of a
west texas dryline. Although the dryline will encounter mlcape
values approaching or even exceeding 2000j kg to our west,
westerly capping flow may keep the boundary quiet throughout the
afternoon hours. Even though the dryline is unlikely to reach our
cwa, there should be enough afternoon Sun deeper into the humid
air to sufficiently destabilize the boundary layer. The inhibition
will be the limiting reactant, and guidance is uninclined to
allow convective initiation across north and central texas
Saturday afternoon. Any cells that are able to realize the
extraordinary instability could quickly become severe with
favorable shear for maintenance.

As a cold front dives into northwestern oklahoma late in the day,
it will encounter an environment of increasing instability and
steadily eroding cin. Western oklahoma will likely be the focus
for the most vigorous convective initiation late Saturday
afternoon and into the evening hours. The window for supercells
may be small. As the front races southeastward into an endless
supply of fuel, the convective elements will likely congeal into a
linear complex before entering north texas. This line may unzip
southward along the front as it overtakes the dryline, charging
into our western zones late Saturday evening. This complex will
pose primarily a wind threat, but favorable 0-1km shear (enhanced
by the frontal boundary or associated outflow) may support
embedded tornadoes. Any cells that remain discrete may also pose a
hail threat with deep-layer shear supportive of long-lived
updrafts. It still appears the better shear and dynamics will be
along and north of the i-20 corridor, and with veering inflow
ahead of it, the linear MCS should diminish in intensity as it
enters our southern and eastern zones early Sunday morning.

The convective complex will exit the region on Sunday, and gusty
north winds will follow in its wake. With abundant sunshine,
afternoon temperatures should reach the 70s regionwide, but the
winds will make it feel cooler than that.

After a cool start to the day on Monday, downslope winds will aid
in a quick warm up. This warming trend will be short-lived with
another front arriving Monday night. Deep northwest flow will
maintain mild daytime temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. As the
flow becomes more zonal on Thursday, some locations may reach 80f,
but the parade of autumn fronts will continue with another
arriving Thursday night.

25

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 77 70 84 61 74 30 20 30 90 20
waco 77 71 86 62 76 30 20 30 90 20
paris 77 65 80 60 71 30 20 40 90 30
denton 77 68 83 58 74 30 20 30 90 10
mckinney 77 67 83 60 73 30 20 30 90 20
dallas 77 70 84 61 74 30 20 30 90 20
terrell 75 68 85 61 74 40 20 30 90 30
corsicana 75 69 84 63 73 40 20 40 90 40
temple 79 71 86 63 77 30 20 30 90 30
mineral wells 77 67 86 56 74 20 20 30 80 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

26 91


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi48 minSSE 97.00 miFair70°F58°F68%1018.3 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi28 minSSE 810.00 miFair73°F59°F64%1019 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi48 minSSE 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F60°F71%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from LUD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SE6S10S9SE7SE9
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2 days agoS8S8SE6SE6S7S5SE6SE7SE6SE5SE5SE6SE8SE6SE7SE7SE5S8S9SE7SE5SE5S9S11
G15

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.