Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:42PM Thursday June 22, 2017 1:31 PM CDT (18:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 221207 aaa
afdfwd
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
707 am cdt Thu jun 22 2017

Aviation
12 utc TAF cycle
concerns---MVFR ceiling potential through noon today. Low
potential for showers at eastern metroplex TAF sites.

For the metroplex TAF sites---MVFR stratus associated with moisture
on the western periphery of t.S. Cindy continues to slowly invade
westward this morning. The most likely TAF site to experience a
more continuous period of MVFR CIGS below fl020 will be kdal and
i'll maintain the inherited prevailing CIGS here given nearby
observations. Farther west (dfw, gky, afw and ftw), there is a
higher degree of uncertainty with regards to the MVFR potential.

For now, i'll tempo MVFR CIGS below fl020 through the morning with
a brief period of MVFR CIGS around fl025 around noon at dfw and
gky. Thereafter,VFR will return and continue through the
remainder of the period. Confidence is too low in MVFR stratus
reaching afw and ftw this morning, so for now, i'll keep these
sites completelyVFR. If stratus starts to move towards the west a
bit more than currently thought, amendments to advertise MVFR at
these sites will become necessary.

Some hi-res guidance indicates a chance for some showers across
the central and eastern sections of d10 airspace this afternoon.

Confidence in this occurring is low given the expected track of
t.S. Cindy. Also, the airmass to the west of the main low center
should generally be characterized by sinking air which would tend
to limit precipitation chances this far west. With this in mind,
i'll maintain precipitation-free tafs, but will monitor radar
trends. The most likely TAF site to be impacted by any rain
bands showers will be dal and perhaps dfw. Showers east of the
main TAF sites may result in some minor disruptions for eastern
arrival and departure gates. Otherwise, northerly winds of around
10 knots will switch the the east and east-southeast late this
evening. Scattered to broken CU around fl040 will prevail through
the early evening hours.

For the waco TAF site---MVFR stratus continues to graze central
mclennan co at this hour and it's a little difficult to say just
how far west this activity will continue to advance. With that in
mind, i'll carry a tempo group for MVFR CIGS through a majority
of the morning.VFR should return thereafter with some afternoon
cu.

24-bain

Discussion issued 354 am cdt Thu jun 22 2017
tropical storm cindy made landfall over extreme southwestern
louisiana and is expected to move northward today near or just
east of the texas louisiana line this morning and gradually turn
to the north northeast and then northeast during the next 24 hours
bringing it into northern mississippi by daybreak Friday.

Given this track, the impacts across north texas will be limited
as we will be on the western side of the system. A band of showers
and isolated thunderstorms is expected to move into the eastern
most counties today. Have placed some low pops (20 percent) just
east of i-35 us75 with increasing chances up to 60 percent across
the far eastern counties. Rainfall totals from this event may
reach 1 inch in some areas east of a centerville to emory line but
the widespread heavy rain will be to the east of our forecast
area.

Clouds from the tropical storm can be seen on satellite extending
to west of the i-35 corridor this morning. After morning lows in
the mid 60s to lower 70s, temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
east to the mid 90s northwest. Winds will be north to northeast
at 5 to 15 mph.

Some low chances of showers will linger into tonight east of a
bonham to hearne line and it should be rain-free elsewhere as
the remnants of cindy move farther away. Lows will be close to
seasonal normals with upper 60s to mid 70s expected.

With cindy exiting and a shortwave moving through the trough
over the northern and central plains, a cold front is expected to
move south and approach the red river by mid Friday afternoon.

With subsidence in the wake of cindy and some heating ahead of the
approaching front, temperatures should rise into the 90s across
north and central texas and some locations, especially across the
northwest and also over parts of central texas, may reach the
century mark. The nam MOS guidance is even going with a high of 99
degrees at dfw and 100 for dallas love field for Friday.

Maximum heat index values will approach 105 degrees across much of
the forecast area Friday afternoon but given the cool down
expected Saturday, we don't anticipate that we will be issuing a
heat advisory. There will be some low chances of showers and
thunderstorms with the front Friday afternoon near the red river.

The much-welcomed summer cold front is expected to move through
the rest of north and central texas Friday night. There will be a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide Friday night
and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
through Monday. High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s
Saturday through Monday which will be 6 to 10 degrees below
seasonal normals. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

There will be low chances of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along and west of a bowie to hearne line Tuesday and
along and east of a sherman to temple line Wednesday.

Temperatures will slowly rise but expect them to be near or below
seasonal normals through midweek.

58

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 91 75 97 73 84 10 5 10 60 50
waco 91 75 99 75 87 10 5 5 40 50
paris 86 73 90 70 82 40 20 20 50 50
denton 91 74 97 71 83 5 0 20 60 50
mckinney 89 74 95 71 83 20 5 20 70 50
dallas 91 76 97 73 84 10 5 10 60 50
terrell 88 74 95 73 83 30 20 10 60 50
corsicana 88 75 95 73 84 40 20 10 50 50
temple 91 75 98 75 89 10 5 5 30 50
mineral wells 92 71 99 70 84 0 0 10 60 50

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

24 58


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi37 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F71°F69%1007.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi57 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast82°F69°F66%1008.1 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi57 minNW 310.00 miOvercast82°F71°F70%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from LUD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E4E10E10E10
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E8NE4NE3CalmNE4NE4----NE4CalmNE3NE4NE7NE6E6E4CalmCalm
1 day agoE3E6E7E8E8E5E4NE3E4E4E4SE4SE3CalmE4E3E4E3E5SE6E6E7E6E9
2 days agoW3CalmNE4NE7NE10E11E10E6E5E4E4NE3E4E3E3CalmNE3NE4E6CalmE4NE8E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.