Friday, February22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:20PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:06 AM CST (13:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:04PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 221204
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
604 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

12z tafs
relatively unpleasant flying conditions will persist through today
and into tonight, with continued ifr or lower CIGS and vsby

A re-invigoration of warm-air advection across the region has
lowered CIGS to lifr levels early this morning, along with a slow
reduction in vsbys. CIGS are unlikely to improve much today, and
they will likely struggle to even reach 010. Less confidence in
the vsby forecast, but periods of ifr to MVFR are forecast this
morning. Occasional showers will be possible as well through mid-
day so maintained the tempo group through 16z. Additionally, a
couple storms could develop across north and central texas through
early afternoon, but confidence is too low for any mention in
tafs. This potential will need to be monitored accordingly.

While tafs explicitly forecast MVFR 4sm by afternoon, some
potential exists for vsbys to fall below 3sm at times this
through early evening. Thereafter, expect a more notable
reduction in flight categories area-wide after 00z, and a return
to prevailing lifr CIGS and ifr or lower vsby.

Conditions will rapidly improve around after 10-12z Saturday
following the passage of a sharp pacific front. Winds will veer
from the southeast to the west and become gusty behind the front,
especially once deeper mixing ensues by mid morning Saturday.

Therefore, indicate gusts to 30 kt in the 30-hour kdfw taf.

Indeed, isolated gusts up to 35 kt will be possible.


Short term issued 411 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
through Saturday
periods of fog, drizzle, a few thunderstorms, and then fairly
vigorous winds during the short-term period -- a little something
for everybody!
a cool, moist air mass remains solidly established beneath a stout
elevated mixed layer (noted in our 22 00z sounding) currently.

With another shortwave impulse approaching our region at present,
further saturation of low levels should bring about increasing
drizzle, shower activity, and some fog, especially for areas
along west of the i-35 corridor through mid morning. While
residual t-td spreads have kept fog from becoming dense on a
widespread scale, aforementioned saturation may decrease
visibilities sufficiently for more areas of dense fog towards
daybreak, and this will be monitored accordingly.

Through morning and into the afternoon hours, this low-amplitude
system will lift northeast across north texas. Forecast soundings
(and the observed steep mid-level lapse rates from our 00z
sounding) suggest positive theta-e advection and implied
isentropic ascent may support isolated thunderstorm activity ahead
of this wave. Given fast convective-layer flow and steep mid-
level lapse rates, especially towards central texas, small hail in
the strongest cores will be possible once again.

Behind this system, fog and drizzle may decrease some during the
afternoon, before likely re-developing during the evening and
overnight hours, owing to light surface winds, moist conditions,
and weak warm advection. Areas of dense fog will be possible.

This fog is expected prior to the glancing influence of a very
compact mid-level low over the southern high plains. As one
vorticity lobe rotates around this cyclone tonight, the closed
low will eject northeast, forcing a pacific front east across
north and central texas. The front should enter western north
texas after 3am and clear eastern areas towards 9am. Convergence
along the front and the mid upper low should offer enough ascent
for at least a few thunderstorms. However, maintenance of cool
surface air across most, if not all, of north and central texas
and dry air aloft may significantly limit convective activity
through daybreak, especially given that the core of the strongest
height falls will only glance richer boundary-layer theta-e air
(focused towards east texas). Still, we will have to monitor the
potential for at least a few elevated hailstorms east of the 35
corridor towards sunrise. Additionally, any substantial northward
advance of unstable surface air would yield a threat of damaging
winds as well. However, the NAM and several cams indicate that
this cool, moist low-level air mass, albeit shallow, will yield
little ground through tonight. This evolution seems quite
reasonable, relative to the more aggressive scouring of stable air
shown by medium- range global guidance. In turn, while some
severe potential cannot be discounted (especially the elevated
hail threat), continue to think that a more notable threat will be
confined east of our area.

Lastly, Saturday will be quite windy, initially from the west
behind the pacific front and then eventually the northwest behind
a stronger cold front. Ample momentum and deeper mixing could
support sustained winds as high as 30-35 mph, especially west of
i-35 and north of i-20. Also sided with the warmer side of
guidance for highs, which will be boosted by a strong downslope
component. Some fire-weather concerns will likely exist as a
result, and this is discussed in greater detail in the fire-
weather planning forecast.


Long term issued 411 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
Saturday night through next week
following the late week weather event, generally zonal flow will
ensue and prevail throughout much of the upcoming week. A rex
block in the pacific around alaska's longitude will prevent any
similar southern stream cyclones into early march. However, subtle
ripples in the flow will bring periodic rain chances and
subsequent cold fronts during the final week of february.

Following a remarkably mild day on Saturday, cp air will filter
into north and central texas in the wake of the departing storm
system. Despite sunny skies and dry air, temperatures will only
peak in the 50s Sunday afternoon. A warming trend will begin the
workweek with seasonal highs in the 60s both Monday and Tuesday.

Low-level moisture will gradually return, more vigorously into
east texas. But when a weak wave swings through late Tuesday into
Tuesday night, a strengthening inversion may effectively cap the
boundary layer. As a result, will only carry some low-end pops in
the east.

A mistimed cold front will arrive on Wednesday, free of
precipitation. A more substantial shortwave will arrive on
Thursday, but guidance differs with respect to the moisture
profile above the chilly boundary layer. This is not a favorable
setup for overrunning precipitation, the hallmark of postfrontal
days in february, but a few elevated showers may result in some
sprinkles into the cool surface layer.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 54 49 68 37 57 60 60 40 0 0
waco 54 49 71 39 59 60 60 40 0 0
paris 52 48 70 36 56 60 70 100 0 0
denton 52 47 66 35 56 60 60 40 0 0
mckinney 53 49 66 36 56 60 60 60 0 0
dallas 54 50 70 38 58 70 60 50 0 0
terrell 54 49 68 37 57 70 60 70 0 0
corsicana 54 50 68 39 56 70 60 70 0 0
temple 55 48 72 39 59 60 50 40 0 0
mineral wells 54 46 69 33 57 50 50 20 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Dense fog advisory until 10 am cst this morning for txz130-

11 30

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi72 minENE 10 G 140.25 miFog43°F42°F98%1013.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi72 minE 51.00 miFog/Mist44°F43°F100%1015.2 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi72 minE 61.00 miFog/Mist43°F42°F99%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from LUD (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE5E8E10E9SE7NE6E9E11
1 day agoW10
2 days agoE9E8

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.