Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 8:10 PM   Moonset 6:01 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 241701 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Thursday night/

Showers and thunderstorms remain along and north of the Red River near a stalled front. Westerly steering flow is keeping the majority of activity in Oklahoma but a few showers and storms will be possible generally north of the Highway 380 corridor. Moisture will remain below 700 mb through Thursday, keeping plenty of clouds in place, although some breaks in the clouds will allow the sun to make brief appearances. The combination of steady low level warm air advection and a bit of solar heating will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

The frontal boundary will lift slowly northward tonight through Thursday morning but still may produce a few showers and storms north of the 380 corridor. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and humid with lows in the 60s. Most of Thursday will be rain-free but remain cloudy with strong low level warm/moist advection continuing. Large scale ascent will increase Thursday night once an upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains. Storms will develop on the dryline across West Texas during the afternoon and evening, spreading eastward through the night. These storms will likely begin to impact about the northwestern half of the forecast area before sunrise Friday. Some strong to severe storms will be possible, especially across the far northwestern counties. Instability and shear will be sufficient for storm organization with hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. This severe weather threat will spread eastward on Friday which is detailed in the long term discussion below.

79

LONG TERM
/Issued 341 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ /Thursday Night Onward/

Several days of active weather are in store this weekend. No single day will be a complete washout, but given the multiple rounds of storms expected, make sure to plan your weekend activities accordingly.

A mostly precipitation free Thursday night will give way to increasing rain chances come Friday morning. A shortwave will be emerging out of the Rockies, spreading rapid height falls across North and Central Texas. An attendant cold front will move east through the night, knocking on North/Central Texas' door step come sunrise. Although the bulk of the ascent is expected to remain well north of our region, an open warm sector coupled with the incoming cold front will likely lead to the development of thunderstorms. With 1500+ J/kg of CAPE in place and effective shear of 40+ knots, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out by mid morning. Through the afternoon, instability is expected to gradually build as steeper mid-level lapse rates move into our region. This should lead to additional thunderstorm development out ahead of the slow-moving front. The severe weather threat will continue through the afternoon as large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

As the shortwave moves away from the region, precipitation chances will significantly decrease Friday night. Southerly winds will help push the front west/northwest overnight. Its new placement will dictate where storms fire off Saturday with the arrival of the next shortwave. Guidance continues to keep much of North and Central Texas in the warm sector with a few warm air advection showers and storms by mid-morning. The shortwave will once again send a weak front eastward, catching up to the dryline and likely leading to another round of vigorous convection. With mid-level lapse rates of 8 degC/Km and 1500+ J/Kg of instability, strong to severe storms will once again be possible. Threats will be large hail, damaging winds. The severe weather threat will persist into Saturday night as storms shift eastward.

The front will stall on Sunday, providing yet additional chances for showers and storms across our region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will once again be possible mainly east of I-35 on Sunday, where sufficient instability and shear will be present.
The storm chances will linger through Monday before the front retreats back to the northwest.

Weak ridging aloft will move across the region on Tuesday, leading to a dry day across the region. The precipitation-free conditions will be short-lived as another system approaches the area by Wednesday with additional showers and storms in the forecast.

Hernandez

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Ceilings will be a bit of a challenge to pinpoint through this evening with the Metroplex TAF sites bouncing between MVFR and VFR. Since low level moisture is fairly deep, we don't anticipate much scattering to occur, but there will be periods with broken clouds with bases around 6000 ft. Waco will likely see IFR ceilings lift above 1000 ft early this afternoon but bases may struggle to get higher than 3000 ft.

The low level jet will increase tonight in response to the next approaching upper trough. The result will be a resurgence of moisture with low end MVFR to high end IFR ceilings at all TAF sites through Thursday morning. The stronger wind should limit visibility restrictions overall but some patchy fog with 3 to 5 mile visibility is possible early Thursday morning.

All appreciable showers/storms will remain well north of the TAF sites through this forecast cycle but some brief sprinkles or light rain will be possible. Better storm chances are expected overnight Thursday though Friday.

A south wind will remain in the 7 to 13 knot range through Thursday along with some gusts as high as 20 knots, especially Thursday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 68 80 68 83 / 10 10 5 50 80 Waco 81 68 79 69 78 / 0 0 0 20 70 Paris 78 64 81 68 76 / 40 30 20 20 90 Denton 78 67 79 67 83 / 20 20 10 60 70 McKinney 77 68 80 68 80 / 20 20 10 40 80 Dallas 80 68 80 69 82 / 10 10 5 40 80 Terrell 79 66 80 68 78 / 10 10 5 20 80 Corsicana 79 68 81 70 80 / 5 0 0 10 80 Temple 80 67 80 68 80 / 5 0 0 10 60 Mineral Wells 83 66 80 66 86 / 5 20 5 70 40

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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