Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vincent, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:01PM Saturday March 25, 2017 6:38 AM CDT (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 4:39PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vincent, AL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.41, -86.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kbmx 250857
afdbmx
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
357 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017

Short term
Taking a peek at current radar this morning the prefrontal moistening
boundary is currently working into the area this morning. This are
may provide just a few isolated showers to the northwest. No real
impact from it at this time. Further west the main line that we will
be watching today is already fairly strong to isolated severe this
morning. Individual cells are moving northeast along the line while
the line itself is working eastward and will continue to do so
during the morning. Overall timing will put the edge of the line
into the far western counties by 9 to 10 am and then move eastward
through the day. Showers and storms are a pretty much given for most
of the area through tonight with activity generally staying west of
an auburn to brundidge line during the day. Temperatures of course
will be a nightmare trying to stay on top of but the warmest will be
in the southeast where he rain holds off. If we get any more sun
than forecasted in the southeast then mid 80s can not not be ruled
out. As for temperatures in the west, look for readings to stay in
the 60s to low 70s with the clouds and rain. As the rain moves out
temperatures may warm into the low 70s in the northwest, where less
sky cover is expected. For areas in between these two areas. The
high will depend on the exact timing of the onset of the rain.

Temperatures in the forecast are based on the hrrr and then smoothed
so there could be some variability in the forecast versus the
observed temperatures.

So what about the severe potential. Most of the western half of the
area is under a slight risk, while most of the eastern half is under
a marginal threat. Main impacts will be damaging winds and possibly
some hail. Winds overall are uni-directional so not much in the way
of rotation to play with. We will also see some of the wind fields
begin to decrease during the afternoon. Lapse rates are also weak
across the area as well. So while there are some negatives to the
overall strength of the storms, there are some positives as well.

Just the pure dynamical forcing of the line itself, precipitation
loading and warm spring temperatures during the peak heating of the
day will help increase the potential of marginally severe winds with
the strongest storms, especially with any line segment bowing
observed on radar. Most of the activity will exit stage right by 7
to 8 pm tonight and the severe threat will decrease.

16

Long term
Moist southwesterly low-level flow will remain in place on Sunday as
the upper trough takes a poleward turn toward the ohio valley,
causing the surface cold front to fizzle to our west. Daytime heating
will aid in the development of scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms.

The next system in the parade will move eastward from the plains on
Monday with our next chance of storms. SBCAPE is still expected to
reach 1000-2000 j/kg with steep lapse rates spreading eastward
across ms into west al. The compact nature of the trough should
allow a moderate amount of lift/forcing to overlap with appreciable
instability. 0-6km shear of 35-45 kt will support storm clusters and
supercells capable of producing hail possibly larger than quarter
size and damaging winds. The tornado threat continues to appear very
low due to marginal surface to 700mb shear. Convection could linger
into Tuesday morning across the north with a moist southwesterly
fetch remaining in place.

We should get a bit of a break for Wednesday as a 500 mb ridge
amplifies over the region ahead of yet another upper trough. This
system will probably carry another chance for severe storms on
Thursday and could end up being the most impressive in the series.

By this time, a large warm sector should be in place with the ecmwf
indicating the potential for CAPE in the 2000-3000 j/kg range.

87/grantham

Aviation
06z TAF discussion.

--vfr cloudiness tonight into Saturday morning; increasing threat
of thunderstorms west-to-east through Saturday with sub-vfr impacts;
instances of breeziness--
broken to overcast cloudiness continues overnight. Based on progged
low-level winds either side of 35-knots and rh values, ceilings are
expected to remain comfortably withinVFR range.

A weather system will affect all terminals Saturday, tracking west-
to-east across the state. We should begin with spotty/vcsh showers
before a line of thunderstorms moves through. Sub-vfr conditions are
expected with the convection (visibility and/or ceilings). Given the
surface front hanging upstream, areas of lingering showers/storms
are possible beyond the end of the TAF period as well. Added an
addition line to show tsra transitioning to shra. Latest model
trends have been slower with the eastward progression/development of
storm/shower activity. Adjusted timing slightly where needed.

Light to modest breezes continue tonight thanks to the pressure
gradient between upstream low pressure and ridging off the carolina
coastline. Gusty winds are expected Saturday, with gusts to around
20kts outside of strong ts.

89/14

Fire weather
Low level moisture will gradually increases today from west to east
as a line of strong to possibly severe storms moves across central
alabama during the day. Rain chances will continue tonight and into
Sunday due to a moist southwest flow holding over the area. An
active weather pattern will continue into next week. Critical fire
weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Gadsden 78 59 75 58 77 / 90 90 60 20 60
anniston 78 59 76 59 78 / 80 90 50 20 60
birmingham 78 60 78 60 79 / 90 80 50 20 60
tuscaloosa 74 60 81 60 79 / 90 70 40 10 60
calera 77 59 78 61 78 / 90 80 50 10 60
auburn 79 58 77 59 78 / 60 70 40 10 40
montgomery 79 60 83 61 81 / 90 90 40 10 40
troy 79 60 81 61 82 / 60 80 40 10 30

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL22 mi44 minSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F52°F68%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrSE16
G24
SE12
G21
SE12
G22
SE13
G24
S11
G19
SE10
G18
SE13
G18
SE13
G20
S11
G19
S10SE7S9SE8SE6SE6SE5SE6S8S10S6--SE7SE9SE8
1 day agoNE4E7SE9
G18
SE9
G19
SE9
G15
SE9SE66SE10S10
G16
S6
G14
SE8SE8SE8
G17
SE10SE12
G18
SE9SE11
G16
SE10
G17
SE12
G16
SE10
G22
SE9SE9SE10
G18
2 days agoN3N7N9N11N11N10N13
G18
N8----------N7N12
G17
NE7NE6E4NE6NE9E9N4NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.