Thursday, May24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Vincent, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 7:45PM Thursday May 24, 2018 6:26 PM CDT (23:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 2:55AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vincent, AL
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location: 33.41, -86.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 242053
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
353 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018

Midday update and 18z aviation.

Short term
Well, another quite challenging forecast afternoon across central
alabama. A broad area of low pressure surface and aloft was still
present over much of georgia and eastern alabama. This feature was
under a larger scale ridge in the tennessee and ohio valleys. As
the Sun rose this morning, numerous boundaries were evident on
several different scales. Showers and thunderstorms developed
along these boundaries central and east before noon, and have
migrated slowly south and west. Instability was present with
sbcapes of 2500-3000, but lapse rates, mean winds, downdraft capes
where limited. So overall, the stronger storms the remainder of
the afternoon will be capable of wind gusts to 40 mph and brief
torrential rain. An isolated location may receive a few inches of
rain in a short period of time.

Convection should diminish in coverage through the evening but not
completely go away. Some activity may actually redevelop late
tonight east as a upper vorticity axis moves into the area.

Deep layer winds become much more southerly on Friday as an upper
trough approaches from the northwest and a low was located near
the yucatan peninsula. Very high moisture content, instability and
boundary interactions will lead to high rain coverage.

Not much change to the extended forecast. The outlier GFS has
trended much much closer to the ECMWF nam and others consensus as
a system moves northward out of the gulf. The national hurricane
center now has a 90 percent chance of development. Both the
gfs ECMWF has lowered pressure and overall speed of the system. We
shall see. There remains a chance of flooding rains each day
through Wednesday.

All interest in central alabama should be aware that this system
may affect parts of the gulf coast and central alabama before the
end of the memorial day weekend. Stay up to date on the latest

previous short-term discussion:today and tonight.

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours with
a low level circulation over central georgia and a trof axis
extending westward into south alabama. Light winds and minimal cloud
cover has produced conditions conducive for fog this morning. A few
places are already below one-half mile across west alabama, and a
dense fog advisory may become necessary. Precipitable water values
are still above normal with values around 1.75 inches. The majority
of the convection today will be near and south of the low level trof
axis, but thunderstorms possible anywhere this afternoon due to
higher than normal pw's and little or no capping inversion.

Convection will wane after the loss of daytime heating.

58 rose

Long term
Friday through Wednesday.

Trailing vorticity from a shortwave moving through the midwest
will result in falling 500mb heights on Friday as an upper-level
trough strengthens over the gulf and adjacent states. A weak
frontal boundary will have dissipated, allowing moisture to return
northward. Cyclonic mid-level flow, daytime heating, and the moist
air mass will result in numerous showers and storms that will be
maximized during the afternoon hours.

Upper-level troughing over the region will be a persistent feature
of the forecast period due to a tilted omega block pattern at
500mb with ridging over the plains flanked by the gulf trough and
a closed low over the great basin. A developing surface low near
the yucatan will be lifted northward by the trough. NHC indicates
that this low is likely to develop into a tropical or subtropical
depression. The GFS remains east of the guidance consensus but has
trended westward closer to the other model guidance. Will continue
to rely on the ECMWF which has support from the NAM and canadian
as well as its ensembles. The ECMWF has trended slower in the last
couple of runs. Shear from the trough will prevent significant
strengthening, with the main impacts for the gulf states
continuing to be heavy rainfall and flooding, as is often the
concern with slow-moving weak tropical systems. Saturday looks to
be the "least wet" day of the holiday weekend, as the low and
deep tropical moisture remain south of the area, but there will
still be enough forcing from the trough and moisture to warrant
likely pops for diurnally enhanced convection. By Sunday,
southerly flow aloft will over-run strengthening low-level
southeasterly flow likely resulting in more widespread steady
tropical rains lifting up from the southeast. This will result in
cooler high temperatures, and will only mention a slight chance of
embedded thunder due to limited instability.

Sticking with the ECMWF solution, the low pressure system will
become vertically stacked and stall out somewhere just southwest
of the forecast area for the first half of next week. Continued
850mb moisture transport east of the low will result in wet
conditions continuing across the area, modulated by any patches of
dry air aloft that wrap around the system. Rainfall will likely
contract closer to the center at night while expanding in coverage
through the day. Greatest potential for flooding will be closest
to where the low stalls, but confidence is low exactly where that
will be. There will likely be some hefty rainfall totals somewhere
across the gulf states and especially near the coast, but
confidence in placement is low. Will continue to highlight the
flooding potential in the hwo. More organized flooding chances
look to hold off until Sunday, but isolated flash flooding remains
possible Friday and Saturday due to the moist air mass and weak
flow through the column.

32 davis

18z TAF discussion.

Special note... The ceilometer at mgm has not been reporting. The
forecasters will issue a terminal forecast using the latest
reliable data. We will append a amd not sked to mgm due to this
missing data until the issue is resolved.

Similar to yesterday scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon hours. For all
sites except kanb and kasn added in a tempo group to account for a
greater likelihood of thunderstorm activity associated with peak
heating. Activity should taper off around 00z this evening due to
loss of daytime heating. Due to rainfall at most sites this
afternoon and continuity did mention the possibility of fog low
clouds developing with reduced visibilities tomorrow morning.

Further amendments could be made later in the period.

07 wyatt

Fire weather
A moist pattern is expected over the next seven days and should
result in daily rain chances. Patchy fog and low clouds will be
possible each morning particularly where rainfall occurs during
the prior afternoon and evening.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 67 83 66 84 66 20 50 50 70 40
anniston 68 83 66 84 66 30 60 50 70 40
birmingham 69 85 69 85 69 30 70 50 70 40
tuscaloosa 69 86 68 86 68 30 70 50 70 40
calera 68 84 67 84 67 30 70 50 70 40
auburn 68 81 67 81 67 50 60 50 70 50
montgomery 69 86 68 85 69 40 70 50 70 50
troy 68 85 68 84 68 50 70 50 70 60

Bmx watches warnings advisories

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL22 mi34 minS 1210.00 miOvercast78°F66°F67%1017 hPa

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmNW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3E9E4SE4SE4CalmS6S12
1 day agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmNW3N6N7N9SE6CalmCalmCalm
2 days ago6SE3SE6NE5E6E3E4Calm4SE4E5NE3E3NE4E3E64SW6CalmSW5NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.