Monday, May22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Vincent, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 7:44PM Monday May 22, 2017 12:33 PM CDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 4:16PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vincent, AL
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location: 33.41, -86.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 221729
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
1229 pm cdt Mon may 22 2017

For 18z aviation.

Short term
Today through Tuesday.

The weak wind shift associated with the stalling cold front is
currently located along a selma to birmingham to gadsden line,
while the lower dew points are lagging behind to the northwest.

The front will meander southeastwards some this morning, before
lifting back slightly to to the northwest ahead of the
approaching shortwave, becoming located along the i-59 corridor by
afternoon. At upper-levels, a broad trough will begin to amplify
over the central us today. A strong 100+ kt subtropical jet streak
is located at its base over texas. This will aid a couple
convectively modulated southern stream waves that will move
eastward through central alabama today and tomorrow, ahead of the
main trough axis on Wednesday.

Wave #1 looks fairly potent and is responsible for a couple
different areas of convection currently located across texas and
louisiana and adjacent coastal waters, and will move into central
alabama late this afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this morning and this afternoon ahead
of the shortwave, in the warm and moist air mass along and south
of the front. 0-6 km shear values will be generally around 25-30
kts, with a tendency for stronger shear values to be on the cool
side of the front, though some pockets of higher values will be
possible due to convective processes. Profiles will be fairly
saturated and mid-level lapse rates weak, with weak low-level flow
during the daytime hours. Some strong storms with gusty winds
will be possible, and cannot rule out an isolated marginally
severe storm with damaging winds. However, threat looks marginal
and not organized enough to include in the hwo/graphics but will
be monitored.

Showers and storms will increase in coverage late this afternoon
and especially tonight from southwest central alabama to southeast
central alabama due to the shortwave and an at least loosely
organized mcs. The LLJ will increase as well due to a surface wave
moving along the front, which will sag southward into southeast
alabama behind the wave. If a forward propagating qlcs were to
form, there could be a marginal damaging wind threat in far
southeast central alabama, but most cam runs do not look that
organized. Shear does not look strong enough for a brief tornado
threat in southeast central alabama either overnight into tomorrow
morning, unless the surface wave is stronger than expected.

More importantly, the threat to focus on will be heavy rain and
flash flooding, more isolated during the afternoon but ramping up
tonight and tomorrow. Pwats will be near 2 inches with strong
upper-level divergence, lift, and low- level moisture transport.

Wave #2 looks to move through on Tuesday. It may be weaker than
wave #1 and track farther south, as the subtropical jet will be
further south, but guidance is indicating the frontal boundary
will be along our southern border. This may keep convection more
elevated than surface-based (minimizing strong to severe storm
potential), but convergence along the boundary will enhance the
heavy rainfall potential along and north of the front, again
across southern central alabama. The axis of total QPF from Monday
to Tuesday on the high-res guidance is a bit further south than
in the global model guidance. Agree with wpc in using the high-res
guidance which places 2-4 inches across southern central alabama
with locally higher amounts, over areas that already received 2-8
inches of rain Saturday night. Therefore, the current flash flood
watch looks to be mostly in good shape, but a row of counties
will be added to the northern end based on the latest numbers.


Long term
Tuesday night through Sunday
wave #3 will be the main upper-level trough axis, anomalously deep
for late may, and will be accompanied by a seasonably strong cold
front. Shear, forcing, and cooling aloft will all be impressive
with this system. However, moisture quality/instability is very
much in doubt as it will be coming in very quickly behind the
previous system (and trending quicker), with some models
especially the ECMWF indicating westerly/northwesterly low-level
flow ahead of it and only low 60s dew points. Expect the dynamics
to be enough for a fast- moving line of showers and storms
Tuesday night and Wednesday, some strong with gusty winds and
hail. However, not confident enough that convection will be strong
enough to produce severe winds/hail to mention anything in the
hwo. Rainfall amounts should also be lighter with this system as
well. Light rain/drizzle will linger Wednesday afternoon/evening
behind the front due to the cold core aloft, and refreshingly
cooler air will move in. The cooldown won't last very long, with
warmer temperatures and some shower/storm chances returning by the
weekend in west-southwest flow ahead of a trough moving through
the northern tier.


18z TAF discussion.

Shra with isolated tsra will continue to affect asn/anb and east
as a disturbance slides further east of the area. Another
disturbance will approach the area from the west this afternoon.

Expect isolated shra/tsra this afternoon with increasing coverage
this evening through the overnight hours followed by a gradual
decrease in coverage later in the day on Tuesday. CIGS will fall
from MVFR early this afternoon to ifr overnight and into early


Fire weather
Several rounds of heavy rain and storms are expected beginning
this afternoon and continuing through mid week. Another 3-4
inches of rainfall is possible across southern portions of central
alabama by Wednesday. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions
will not occur.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Gadsden 60 76 61 72 53 / 90 70 70 60 30
anniston 62 77 62 74 54 / 90 80 60 60 20
birmingham 62 77 63 72 55 / 90 70 60 60 20
tuscaloosa 61 79 62 73 54 / 90 60 60 50 20
calera 62 78 62 73 55 / 90 80 60 60 20
auburn 65 77 64 74 56 / 90 80 60 60 20
montgomery 66 80 66 77 56 / 90 80 60 60 20
troy 66 78 65 76 56 / 90 80 70 60 20

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/
Flash flood watch through Tuesday evening for the following
counties: autauga... Barbour... Bibb... Bullock... Chambers...

chilton... Clay... Coosa... Dallas... Elmore... Greene... Hale... Lee...

lowndes... Macon... Marengo... Montgomery... Perry... Pike...

randolph... Russell... Sumter... Tallapoosa.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL22 mi41 minE 510.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW86W5SW5W8NW6NW7W7W5W4CalmNW3CalmN4N3E3NW3CalmNW3NE3N3NE6E6E5
1 day agoS66S9
2 days agoS11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.