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FXUS64 KBMX 230602 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 102 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

High pressure will slide slowly to the east today and begin to elongate over the area. Southerly flow returns on the west of the high and will allow the area to warm into the 70s. The southerly flow will continue tonight and keep temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s wit fair skies. A weak front will move into the region Wednesday as a 500 mb shortwave moves from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Other than an increase in clouds and a few showers/storms in the afternoon, this front should hardly be noticeable with only a minor temperature gradient from north to south across our area.

16

LONG TERM
(Through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT MON APR 22 2024

Only change in the extended needed this afternoon was to expand the slight chance of showers and storms to cover the northern half of the area Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, a dry week with temperatures warming each day. expect upper 70s to mid 80s areawide by Friday.

14

Previous long-term discussion: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT MON APR 22 2024

To our west, a weak shortwave in Oklahoma cresting a ridge may kick off convection Wednesday night near a warm front and moisture gradient. Weak impulses within west- northwest flow may reach northwestern Alabama on Thursday along this same moisture/temperature gradient. This could result in a few showers across our northwestern quadrant.

After Thursday, a 500 mb ridge is expected to take hold over the Southeast CONUS and Gulf of Mexico. This should deflect any shortwaves to our north and west, and subsidence should keep conditions dry through Sunday.

87/Grantham

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There will be some increasing clouds in the north outside of this period. Winds will be more southerly during the day around 7 to 10 kts.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air is in place through most of the week, with just a few wrinkles. For today, 20 ft winds become southerly, at 6 to 10 mph, with minimum RH values in the 26 to 35 percent range. A weak front with just a few showers/storms with very little rain, moves through on Wednesday. 20 ft winds will become westerly at 6 to 9 mph, with minimum RH values above 35 percent. Another shortwave may move through on Thursday as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 75 47 75 51 / 0 0 20 10 Anniston 75 50 76 54 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 75 52 76 56 / 0 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 76 51 79 57 / 0 0 20 10 Calera 74 51 76 56 / 0 0 20 0 Auburn 74 51 77 58 / 0 0 20 0 Montgomery 76 51 80 58 / 0 0 20 0 Troy 76 49 81 57 / 0 0 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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