Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sterrett, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:04 AM CDT (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:54PMMoonset 12:08AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sterrett, AL
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location: 33.41, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 190541
afdbmx
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
1241 am cdt Thu jul 19 2018

Update
For 06z aviation.

Short term
Through tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed mainly along
and south of a low level boundary. Activity across central alabama
has little or no upper support, and should dissipate early this
evening. Slightly more organized activity just east of the
mississippi river may bring some storms to far west alabama this
evening, and kept low rain chances for this area and areas along
and south of i-85. Expect rain free conditions by midnight. Very
muggy conditions currently with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s.

High levels of low level moisture will keep overnight lows on the
warm side.

58 rose

Long term
Thursday through Tuesday.

A split upper-level flow pattern will temporarily be in place
across the eastern CONUS Thursday with a broad trough area of
cyclonic flow aloft over the southeast and a ridge over the
eastern great lakes. This will be downstream of a strong
northwesterly upper-level jet streak nosing into the central
plains, with a vigorous shortwave located to its north over the
midwest and a strong ridge to its south centered near the four
corners. At the surface, high pressure will be building down the
lee of the appalachians while a weak wave of low pressure develops
near the gulf coast. This will will result in easterly winds
building into east alabama with an increase in low-level moisture
and convergent flow. Meanwhile the stalled frontal boundary will
become more diffuse. Models have trended quicker with moisture
return, and combined with a weak vort MAX aloft coverage of
afternoon showers storms looks to be greater than previously
expected. Therefore pops were raised especially in the
southern eastern counties. Activity should mainly diminish after
sunset, but there is a slight chance that remnants of convection
developing upstream could reach the northwest counties after
midnight.

By Friday the southern stream upper trough will push off to the
east as the ridge over the southern plains begins to build
westward. The northern stream shortwave with embedded upper low
will move into wisconsin. 500mb heights will rise over central
alabama with associated synoptic-scale subsidence, while 700mb
temperatures warming to +10 to +11c will result in increased
capping. This may suppress diurnal convection except in the
southeast counties. However, will keep in at least a slight chance
everywhere given available pwats and the potential for lingering
boundaries. Strengthening northwest flow aloft results in 0-6 km
bulk shear values around 35 kts with increasing mid-level lapse
rates. There will be a conditional risk of an isolated strong to
severe storm Friday afternoon if convective initiation can occur.

Low-level flow will become westerly over west alabama, with
trajectories originating from a very hot air mass over the
southern plains. This will result in heat index values around 105
degrees, and this threat will be added to the hwo.

One or more mcss strong to severe clusters of storms are expected
to develop off to our north Friday afternoon evening due to
forcing associated with the upper low and a cold front at the
surface. A "ring of fire" type pattern will be in place around the
southern plains ridge and associated strong capping eml. The best
height falls forcing will remain northeast of our area. There is
the possibility that some of this activity could at least clip our
northeast counties after midnight, but models disagree on this.

There is the possibility that this activity could be strong to
severe given the deep layer shear lapse rates, but given great
uncertainty in the track strength of this activity and the
overnight time frame, confidence is too low to mention in the hwo
for Friday night.

Troughing continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Saturday
as a cold front approaches from the north. Nam GFS wind fields
appear contaminated by convective feedback, but even the ecmwf
shows northwesterly 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 40 kts
over central alabama, which are very unusual for late july. Given
the presence of a moist and unstable air mass and favorable lapse
rates, this will result in the potential for strong to severe
storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. However, the
big caveat is what impact convection late Friday night continuing
into Saturday morning will have on available instability. Both the
gfs and ECMWF show a decent amount of QPF between 12 and 18z
Saturday morning. This could contaminate what would otherwise be a
favorable northwest flow severe event. Therefore, while a threat
of severe storms will be added to the hwo, will keep it as a low
confidence threat for now. Will also note that there will be some
srh present, and given the deep layer shear values the
possibility of a tornado cannot be ruled out. But again given the
low confidence associated with the potential for disruptive
morning convection, will not mention this particular threat in the
hwo at this time. Also, if a cold pool does not form in the
morning, heat index readings could reach 105 as well.

The eastern CONUS trough will remain the main player in the rest
of the extended forecast period. Its placement will have a big
impact on temperatures and dew points. Moisture wrapping around
the trough may be enough to spark some showers storms at times
Sunday through Tuesday.

32 davis

Aviation
06z TAF discussion.

Tonight we have a weak stationary boundary just to the north of
the TAF sites. We remain in an overall moist environment over the
taf sites. Low lifr stratus CIGS in the far south for mgm toi are
possible again tonight, with MVFR vis possible for many. Being
south of the boundary would also keep us with better convection
chances for Thursday. Have prob30 tsra mentions for Thursday
afternoon as things heat up.

Note:*** eet has an amd not sked due to an outage on the asos
equipment with only the altimeter reporting. Techs will be
working on the equipment later today.

08

Fire weather
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected today in the
southern counties with activity remaining isolated further north.

Scattered showers and storms are expected again on Thursday with the
most coverage south and east. Localized fog will be possible each
morning where rainfall occurs during the previous afternoon and
evening. There are no fire weather concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 91 70 91 72 90 30 20 20 50 60
anniston 90 71 91 72 89 40 20 20 40 60
birmingham 93 73 93 75 91 30 20 20 40 60
tuscaloosa 94 73 95 76 94 30 20 20 30 50
calera 90 71 92 74 91 40 20 20 30 50
auburn 88 71 88 72 89 50 40 40 30 60
montgomery 92 73 94 75 94 50 30 30 20 50
troy 90 73 92 74 92 60 40 40 20 60

Bmx watches warnings advisories
None.

58 32 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL18 mi71 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds79°F73°F85%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3CalmNW3CalmNW3W3Calm44NW5N3NW565SE8
G15
CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E3CalmNE3
1 day agoW4CalmW3W5SW4SW4SW5CalmCalm3SW53SW5SW73W8NW7N4NE3CalmCalmCalmN7N3
2 days agoCalmCalmW3CalmSE3S3SW6CalmSW4W8NW8SE4CalmS3SW6S5S5SE3CalmCalmCalmW7SW7S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.